2024-08-21 08:14

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor statistics will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to the level of monthly nonfarm payrolls from April 2023 to March 2024. The BLS data is expected to show job growth in the year to March 2024 was significantly weaker than initial estimates, according crypto firm SignalPlus and Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs believes the data could overstate weakness. Wednesday could be busy for financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, as lesser-tracked U.S. data is expected to provide a grim picture of the U.S. economy. Still, bitcoin (BTC) bears might want to exercise caution, as the data could be misleading and overstate weakness, according to one leading investment bank. On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to the level of monthly nonfarm payrolls (jobs report) from April 2023 to March 2024. The report is typically released in the summer or fall of every year. According to observers, the impending BLS update will likely reveal job growth in the year to March was slower than previously estimated. "On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will receive revised job growth figures, which may reveal that job growth from last year through early this year was weaker than previously estimated," SignalPlus, a tech firm focused on democratizing crypto options, said in Tuesday's market update. Morgan Stanley expects a large downward revision of payrolls to 600,000 lower than currently reported, "implying that they get trimmed by 50K per month in the 12 months through March." The expected large downward revision to jobs data could revive recession fears, triggering a shift away from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, and a flight to safety as observed following the July jobs report released early this month. That said, the downward revision could be misleading, according to Goldman Sachs. "Nonfarm payroll growth averaged 250K/month over April 2023-March 2024. While next week's [Wed'] revision could revise the pace down to 165-200k/month, we believe that a portion of that revision will be erroneous and that the "true" pace of employment growth during that period was probably closer to 200-240k/month, Goldman Sach's Economics Research team said in a note to clients on Aug. 16. The team explained that the data is based on the quarterly consensus of employment and wages (QECW), which takes cues from unemployment insurance records. The insurance records exclude illegal immigrants, who have contributed to strong job growth in recent years. After the BLS data, the focus will shift to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting scheduled for release at 18:00 UTC. "We will look for why the FOMC wanted to wait until September to consider easing monetary policy and if a 50bp [rate] cut was discussed," Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients on Aug. 18. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/08/21/bitcoin-bear-trap-goldman-says-wednesdays-us-jobs-report-is-likely-to-overstate-weakness/

2024-08-21 07:54

Traders said that bitcoin would need to break above the $61,000 level and stay above it if sentiment were to change among market participants. Major altcoins like ETH, Solana's SOL, BNB and XRP, dropped as bitcoin's struggle to move past $60K. Tron's TRX and Cardano's ADA showed gains, with TRX particularly benefiting from increased network activity due to a new memecoin generator. Donald Trump crossed Kamala Harris as the most likely winner of the U.S. elections on Polymarket. Bitcoin (BTC) reversed Tuesday’s gains as prices slid to just over $59,000 during the Asian morning hours Wednesday, continuing a spell of sideways price action. BTC fell 2.6%, leading losses among major tokens. Solana’s SOL, BNB Chain’s BNB and XRP fell 2% each, while ether (ETH) fell more than 3.5% The broad-based CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a liquid index tracking the largest tokens by market capitalization, minus stablecoins, dropped 2.27%. On Polymarket, bettors are putting money on future price stability. Solana’s SOL, currently trading for $143, according to CoinDesk Indices data, has a 68% chance of staying above $140 by the end of the week bettors predict. Ether is also going to stay above $2500, they say, and is currently trading above $2600. Meme coins PEPE and BRETT were recently listed on major South Korean exchange Upbit, while new token DOGS was listed on the Binance Launchpool. Traders said that bitcoin would need to break above the $61,000 level and stay above it if sentiment were to change among market participants. “Selling pressure has been building near this level since early August. Bitcoin, having added 3.2% since the start of the day and around 4.5% in 24 hours, has once again come close to testing its 50-day moving average, trading just below $61K,” Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro senior market analyst, told CoinDesk in an email. “Overcoming this resistance from where bitcoin has been selling off since August 9 would take it to a test of its 200-day MA near $62.7K. A consolidation above these levels could dramatically improve sentiment in the entire cryptocurrency market and inspire more active buying,” he added. Tron’s TRX and Cardano’s ADA were the only major tokens showing gains for traders. ADA rose 3%, while TRX jumped more than 10% on increased network activity following last week’s release of a memecoin generator backed by Tron founder Justin Sun. Called Sunpump - similar to the first mover Pump.Fun on Solana - the generator allows anyone to issue memecoins on Tron, and the tokens are automatically listed on a decentralized exchange once they reach a specific market capitalization. Demand for stablecoins may have increased on the Tron network, with over $1 billion worth of tether (USDT) tokens issued on Tuesday that will likely circulate within the ecosystem. Meanwhile, in the world of politics, Donald Trump is once again in the lead on Polymarket’s election winner contract, with his odds of beating Kamala Harris now standing at 52-47. Despite this widening gap, the market is still pricing in a very close race, especially in the swing states: a contact that asks if Trump will win every swing state only gives it a 16% chance of happening, while a contract asking if Harris will do the same only has a 28% chance of occurring. While all swing states capture the attention of political analysts, two in particular are standing out this cycle: North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Of interest to analysts are the state’s shifting demographics – North Carolina's growing urban areas and Pennsylvania's suburban regions – and Black and Hispanic voters have evolving views on key issues like the economy, healthcare, and immigration. Right now, Republicans are leading in North Carolina with odds of 61-40, according to Polymarket, while Trump has edged up in Pennsylvania by 1 percentage point and now leads 51-50. Does any of this matter for bitcoin’s price, however? Probably not. Analysts still say that other factors like U.S. monetary policy and supply concerns influencing BTC more significantly, CoinDesk recently reported. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/08/21/trump-tops-harris-on-polymarket-tron-cardano-in-green-as-bitcoin-sinks/

2024-08-21 07:10

Polish national Roman Ziemian is the co-founder of digital currency trading platform FutureNet who allegedly defrauded users out of around $21 million. Roman Ziemian was arrested after an international law enforcement operation involving Montenegrin authorities and the Interpol. Ziemian will be brought before an investigating judge to determine where he would be extradited, the police said. Polish national Roman Ziemian, the co-founder of digital currency trading platform FutureNet who allegedly defrauded users out of around $21 million has been detained in Montenegro, according to multiple reports citing an announcement from the nation's police. Both Poland and South Korea had issued international warrants for Ziemian after he escaped from house arrest in Italy in 2022. An international law enforcement operation involving Montenegrin authorities and the Interpol resulted in Ziemian getting found hiding under a false identity in a newly developed residential area in Podgorica. After conducting searches, officers of the Sector for Fighting Crime - Group for High-Tech Crime and the Regional Security Center "Centar" confiscated technical devices and items suspected of being the result of a criminal act, according to Radio Slobodna Evropa. According to the police, Ziemian is suspected of money laundering, theft and violation of law, economic crime. FutureNet's other partner, Stefan Morgenstern, "was arrested in Greece and then in Albania," in 2023 a report said citing the police. Ziemian will be brought before an investigating judge of the High Court in Podgorica to determine where he would be extradited. Montenegro is also where jailed Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon is awaiting a final decision on extradition. Both South Korea and the U.S. have been battling it out in court to seek Do Kwon's extradition. Do Kwon has been in custody in the nation since March 2023 after getting caught for using a fake passport. Read More: Do Kwon’s Extradition from Montenegro Postponed Yet Again https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/08/21/another-crypto-fraudster-arrested-in-montenegro-where-do-kwon-awaits-extradition-reports/

2024-08-20 20:20

The industry's top campaign-finance operation poured about $1.4 million into advertising to help secure Ansari's victory in a U.S. House primary, which was finalized in a recount this week. Democratic candidate Yassamin Ansari, a crypto advocate, secured a primary election victory in Arizona's race for the 3rd Congressional District. Ansari ultimately took the seat by only 39 votes from a candidate who had been backed by staunch crypto critic Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Another crypto fan is likely to arrive in Congress next year, with Yassamin Ansari winning her Democratic primary race in Arizona by a scant 39 votes, a result confirmed Tuesday after an automatic recount. Ansari, a former vice mayor of Phoenix, will move on to the general election in a district that strongly favors Democrats, so her chances are good to join the growing list of members of Congress who favor friendly regulations for the U.S. digital assets sector. In the days after the July 30 primary in that state, her lead over her Democratic opponent – Raquel Terán, who was backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) – slid from a 67-vote advantage to 42 and finally came in at 39 after the tally was checked again under court supervision. Read More: Crypto Industry Tries to Tally Final Wins As U.S. Congressional Primaries Wind Down The crypto industry's leading political action committee (PAC), Fairshake got behind Ansari with about $1.4 million in advertising – a relationship that drew strong criticism from her opponent. "We were proud to support a leader who will come to Congress and work across the aisle and embrace innovation to grow our economy," said Josh Vlasto, a Fairshake spokesman. Fairshake and its affiliated super PACs have now turned to the November general election, committing money in as many as 21 congressional races so far. The most prominent is its plan to spend $12 million to derail Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee who has resisted movement on Senate legislation to oversee the crypto industry. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/08/20/crypto-backed-candidate-ansari-narrowly-wins-arizona-primary-by-39-votes/

2024-08-20 13:00

More transactions on the blockchain are getting routed privately as users try to avoid front-running bots that eat into trading margins, but network observers worry about a loss of transparency – and potentially a trend toward centralization. A growing number of sophisticated Ethereum users are choosing to transact privately on the blockchain – relying on so-called dark pools to avoid trading bots set up to front-run transactions, but potentially obscuring the openness and transparency that are supposed to be hallmarks of decentralized public networks. That's according to new research compiled by Blocknative, a company that specializes in preventing or minimizing the impact of MEV, which stands for "maximal extractable value" – the profits that can be siphoned off by fast-moving software bots that can quickly enter into trades to skim margin off of transactions that are sitting in the network's public queue, waiting to be processed. Private transactions, which are sent directly to validators or block proposers, instead of public mempools, now account for about half of the total on Ethereum, in terms of the total gas usage – reflecting the computational power required to process transactions. The percentage was about 7% in September 2022 when Ethereum transitioned into a proof-of-stake network, but it's taken off this year, jumping from about 15% since the start of 2024. A consequence of the trend is that "private transaction order flow is only accessible to permission network participants," which can be a centralizing force if a smaller number of sophisticated players reap more of the rewards, Blocknative wrote in a blog post discussing the findings. "You have a small number of actors who can see the private flow," Blocknative CEO Matt Cutler said in an interview. "Certain people can see stuff, and certain people can't, and that creates opportunity and advantage." The data might look off to pros who have observed such statistics before. The more typical way of measuring the prevalence of private activity is with transaction count, and that's currently around 30%. As recently as 2022, that share was closer to 4.5%. But private transactions tend to be more complex, and thus more "gas intensive," according to Blocknative. "By shifting focus to the amount of gas used by private transactions, we gain a more accurate understanding of network dynamics," Blocknative wrote in the post. Among the disadvantages for users transacting publicly is that fee rates, which fluctuate based on network demand, can be more volatile, and highly unpredictable, Cutler said. "Only certain actors like the block builders can see what's going on in the network," Cutler said. They have "exclusive access to certain information. That gives you an edge. It's a big fact of life." https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/08/20/dark-pools-dominate-ethereum-as-private-transactions-surge-at-least-by-one-measure/

2024-08-20 10:36

The U.S. recession fears were partly responsible for the early August slide in stocks and cryptocurrencies. The Conference Board's leading indicators no longer signal recession. The U.S. recession fears were partly responsible for the early August slide in stocks and cryptocurrencies. The leading U.S. economic indicators are still pointing to a slowdown, but no longer signal a recession, data from the Conference Board, a nonpartisan and non-profit research organization, showed Tuesday. That's a positive sign for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The organization's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) declined 0.6% in July to 100.4 following June's 0.2% drop. The measure peaked in the second quarter of 2022 and has been falling ever since, according to data source MacroMicro. The LEI comprises several forward-looking indicators such as average weekly hours in manufacturing, average weekly initial claims for jobless insurance, ISM new orders index, stock prices and leading credit index. It helps identify shifts in economic trends and turning points in financial markets and is considered one of the most reliable signals of a recession – defined as consecutive quarterly contractions in the growth rate. The continued decline in the LEI indicates impending headwinds for the economy. However, the annualized six-month change narrowed to -2.1% in July from -3.1% in June, a sign the risk of recession is lessening. “The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the board, said in a statement. The latest reading is likely reassuring to risk asset bulls. Perhaps the pain trade in stocks and cryptocurrencies is now on the higher side, given the backdrop of the recent market slide and the resulting dour sentiment. Recession fears gripped the market early this month after U.S. nonfarm payrolls data revealed a sharp slowdown in job creation in July. The Treasury yield curve witnessed bull steepening to signal recession alongside a similar warning by the so-called Sahm's Rule. The mass unwinding of yen carry trades added fuel to the fire. As a result, stocks dropped hard and bitcoin tumbled to $50,000 from $70,000. Since then, the leading cryptocurrency has climbed back to over $60,000, CoinDesk data show. The chart shows that while the Conference Board's leading index is trending south, the coincident indicators, which indicate the economy's current state, are rising along with the lagging indicators. It's a classic sign of an economy in a late-stage expansion phase. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/08/20/us-leading-economic-indicators-continue-to-fall-no-longer-signal-recession/