2024-08-08 06:54

U.S. consumers are accumulating debt at a slower rate, data released Wednesday showed. U.S. consumers accumulate debt at a slower rate amid rising credit card delinquencies. Slower borrowing means the fiat-to-crypto onramp will remain constrained, 10x Research said. Although the unwinding of the yen carry trade has likely paused since Monday, stabilizing risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC). Still, other risks remain, such as the slower U.S. consumer borrowing, according to 10x Research's founder Markus Thielen. Total credit outstanding increased by $8.9 billion in June following an upwardly revised $13.9 billion in May, missing the consensus estimate of a $10 billion increase, data released by the Federal Reserve Wednesday showed. Revolving debt, representing credit cards, which allow borrowers to access funds up to a specific limit and repay the loan over time, fell by $1.7 billion, the most since early 2021. Non-revolving debt, which includes student tuition and auto loans, rose $10.6 billion, the biggest increase in a year. Perhaps more concerning is the increasing delinquency rates, a sign of deteriorating household balance sheets. In the June quarter, the share of credit card delinquents or those running late on repayments for more than 90 days, was 10.93%, the highest since the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, auto-loan delinquencies hit 4.43%, the highest since 2021. It's a sign U.S. consumers have maxed out on their borrowing capacity and present a challenge to bullish crypto narratives, according to Thielen. "Weak U.S. consumer credit data, which dropped from $11.3 billion to $8.9 billion (below the expected $10 billion), mainly due to rare negative credit card debt and soaring delinquencies, signals a collapsing personal savings rate. This is significant for crypto as it suggests the fiat-to-crypto onramp will remain constrained due to maxed-out U.S. consumers," Thielen said in a note to clients. Thielen also cited the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, the slowing U.S. economy, and dwindling AI hype as risks to the crypto market. Both bitcoin and Nvidia (NVDA), a bellwether for all things AI, bottomed out with the debut of ChatGPT in late 2022. Shares in NVDA peaked in June near $140 and have since dropped to $98, according to charting platform TradingView. Bitcoin changed hands at $56,800 at press time, down 10% in seven days, according to CoinDesk data. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/08/08/bitcoin-faces-risk-from-maxed-out-us-consumers-analyst-says/

2024-08-08 06:44

The order doesn't include civil penalties but bans FTX and its sister concern, Alameda, formerly a heavyweight crypto market maker, from trading digital assets and acting as intermediaries in the market. FTX and trading firm Alameda Research will pay $12.7 billion to creditors after the approval of a consent order by a New York judge, ending a lawsuit from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The order bans FTX and Alameda from trading digital assets and acting as intermediaries in the market, but does not include civil penalties. Defunct crypto exchange FTX and trading firm Alameda Research will pay $12.7 billion to creditors as a New York judge officially approved a consent order on Wednesday, ending a 20-month-long lawsuit from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). United States District Judge Peter Castel passed the approval on August 7, a filing shows. It did not seek a civil monetary penalty. The order doesn't include civil penalties but bans FTX and its sister concern, Alameda, formerly a heavyweight crypto market maker, from trading digital assets and acting as intermediaries in the market. FTX filed for bankruptcy in late 2022 destroying billions of dollars in investor wealth. Subsequently, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against FTX and Alameda, claiming both committed fraud and misrepresentations by publicizing FTX as the digital commodity asset platform. Sam Bankman-Fried, who founded both companies, was sentenced to 25 years in prison and ordered to forfeit $11 billion in March. He was earlier convicted of seven counts of fraud, conspiracy, and money laundering. (Omkar Godbole contributed reporting.) https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/08/08/ftx-alameda-ordered-to-pay-127b-to-creditors-by-us-judge/

2024-08-08 05:13

Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 election have declined 13 percentage points in the last month. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are now tied on Polymarket, with bettors giving them equal odds of taking the White House. Trump-themed memecoins are also down significantly over the last month. Former President Donald Trump began the election cycle with a significant lead over the Democrats in the race for the White House. Now, with President Joe Biden out and Kamala Harris in as the party's candidate, that lead no longer exists. Over the last month, Trump's odds of re-taking the White House have declined by 13 percentage points, while Harris' has increased by 34 percentage points – first as the likely successor to replace Biden in the last days of his campaign, and then as a political rival to Trump. Trump is down from a high of 72% in the days after the first Presidential debate against Biden, which proved to be a disastrous affair for the Democrats, with Biden saying afterward he "screwed up." This bump for Harris means that Polymarket is now aligned with polling. A poll conducted by CBS News between July 30 and August 2 gave Harris a 1 percentage point lead over Trump, which is a tie considering the poll's 2.1 percentage point margin of error. Polling aggregator 538 called the race a statistical tie around the same time, and in the days since, Harris has created a small edge in the polls. Meanwhile, Trump-themed PoliFi tokens are also down in the last month with a deeper decline than polling or prediction markets. MAGA, the first Trump token, is down nearly 38% over the last month, according to CoinGecko data, while Solana-based Tremp is down 40%. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/08/08/kamala-harris-donald-trump-tied-on-polymarket-on-who-will-be-the-next-us-president/

2024-08-08 03:44

The product now has to be approved by the local stock exchange, B3. The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) has approved a Solana-based exchange-traded fund (ETF), the agency disclosed in its central database on Wednesday. It is the first product of its kind in Brazil and among the first Solana-based exchange-traded products (ETPs) globally. The first was launched by Switzerland-based investment product provider 21Shares on the SIX Swiss Exchange in June 2021. According to CVM’s database, the Solana-based ETF is in a pre-operational stage, so it has yet to be approved by the Brazilian stock exchange, B3. Exame, a local news organization, added that the product would follow the CME CF Solana Dollar Reference Rate, created by CF Benchmarks with the support of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Brazilian asset manager QR Asset will offer the ETF, while Vortx, a local fintech focused on capital markets, will serve as its manager, the report stated. “This ETF reaffirms our commitment to offering quality and diversification to Brazilian investors. We are proud to be global pioneers in this segment, consolidating Brazil's position as a leading market for regulated investments in crypto assets,” said Theodoro Fleury, manager and chief investment officer of QR Asset, in a statement, the report added. For its part, the largest South American country has also been fertile ground for ETFs. B3 listed a Bitcoin ETF and an Ethereum ETF between 2021 and 2022, while it started offering BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) in March 2024. In July, Cboe officially asked the SEC to let asset managers VanEck and 21Shares introduce a Solana-based ETF to the market, but the request has not been granted so far. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/08/08/brazils-securities-and-exchange-commission-approves-solana-based-etf/

2024-08-07 20:15

The SEC appeared likely to appeal the overall case. A federal judge imposed a $125 million fine on Ripple after finding last year that its institutional sales of XRP violated federal securities laws. The judge reiterated her view that Ripple's programmatic sales of XRP to retail clients through exchanges did not violate federal securities laws. A federal judge ordered Ripple to pay $125 million in civil penalties and imposed an injunction against future securities law violations on Wednesday. District Judge Analisa Torres, of the Southern District of New York, imposed the fine after finding that 1,278 institutional sale transactions by Ripple violated securities law, leading to the fine. The $125.035 million fine is well below the $1 billion in disgorgement and prejudgment interest and $900 million in civil penalties the SEC sought. Wednesday's order on remedies follows the judge's July 2023 ruling in the case itself, finding that Ripple violated federal securities laws through its direct sale of XRP to institutional clients, though she also ruled that Ripple's programmatic sales of XRP to retail clients through exchanges did not violate any securities laws. The SEC tried unsuccessfully to appeal that portion of the ruling while the case was ongoing. Judge Torres also banned Ripple from future violations of federal securities laws on Wednesday, saying that while she isn't making a judgement that Ripple has violated any laws after the SEC filed its lawsuit, the company may well "cross the line" in a section referring to Ripple's "on demand liquidity" offerings. "Rather, the Court finds that Ripple’s willingness to push the boundaries of the Order evinces a likelihood that it will eventually (if it has not already) cross the line," she said. "On balance, the Court finds that there is a reasonable probability of future violations, meriting the issuance of an injunction." The injunction document requires Ripple to file a registration statement if it intends to sell any securities. The SEC is likely to appeal the July 2023 ruling now that the judge has imposed a sentence, after the same judge denied the SEC's motion for an interlocutory appeal last year. The SEC and Ripple settled charges tied to CEO Brad Garlinghouse and other executives after that interlocutory appeal was denied. The price of XRP rose 3 cents, or around 2%, after the judgement was published. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/08/07/judge-fines-ripple-125m-bans-future-securities-law-violations-in-long-running-sec-case/

2024-08-07 18:41

An overnight bounce following dovish remarks from the Bank of Japan has failed to hold. An early Wednesday rally in stocks and crypto has sizably reversed. While JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon continues to worry about inflation, former FRBNY President Bill Dudley said the economy is facing imminent recession and the Fed needs to cut rates soon and often. The price of bitcoin (BTC) has tumbled after rallying earlier Wednesday as U.S. stocks gave up a sizable early advance to turn lower in U.S. mid-afternoon action. Bitcoin (BTC) at press time was trading at $54,800, down just shy of 4% from 24 hours ago and more than 6% from the $57,600 level touched a few hours earlier. Ether (ETH) is faring worse at $2,322, lower by 7.1% over the last day and sending its ratio against bitcoin to the lowest level in more than three years. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 3%. Trading got off to a good start Wednesday after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, said that the central bank wouldn't hike borrowing costs when markets are unstable. The dovish comments sent the yen lower and the Japanese stock market and U.S. index futures nicely higher. While the Nikkei managed to close higher by 1.2% and U.S. stocks opened with gains of around 1.5%, the bullishness has faded throughout the course of the day. Roughly ninety minutes before the close of trade, the Nasdaq is down 0.8% and the S&P 500 off 0.6%. Speaking with CNBC Wednesday, JPMorgan CEO didn't sound so sure that the U.S. Federal Reserve would be successful in returning inflation to its 2% target. Worrying him on inflation are things like deficit spending, "remilitarization," and the green economy shift. Of what appears to be an imminent Fed rate cut, Dimon says it's likely coming, but he doesn't expect it to have much effect. Former Fed member says central bank missing recession signs Meanwhile, former Federal Bank of New York President Bill Dudley suggests the Fed needs to cut rates soon and in a sizable fashion. "Evidence of a weakening labor market and moderating inflation has accumulated rapidly, strongly suggesting that the Fed is behind the curve," wrote Dudley this afternoon on Bloomberg. He noted that the recent fast rise in the unemployment rate has breached the "Sahm rule" threshold (named after economist Claudia Sahm), thus indicating far higher unemployment and a U.S. recession in on the way. "Monetary policy is tight and becoming tighter as price and wage inflation moderate," continued Dudley. He argues that just getting to a neutral fed funds rate would require at least 150 basis points in rate cuts and if the Fed needs to get into the accommodative range, another 100 basis points in cuts on top of that might be necessary. "Prepare for more volatility in stock and bond markets," concluded Dudley, who expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell's "deliberative manner" to prevent any quick easing moves. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/08/07/crypto-turns-broadly-lower-in-us-afternoon-trade-as-stocks-give-away-gains/