2025-12-16 00:40

Combined non-farm payrolls for October and November due Euro steady as markets weigh prospects for Ukraine peace deal Greenback weakest against Chinese yuan since October 2024 SINGAPORE, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar sagged to near a two-month low at the start of the Asian trading session on Tuesday as markets awaited the release of a slew of economic data, including the delayed November U.S. jobs report. The dollar index , which measures the currency's strength against a basket of six key rivals, was down 0.2% at 98.261, approaching the lowest levels since October 17. Sign up here. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its long-awaited combined employment reports for October and November later, following delays to data collection during the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, while a raft of preliminary manufacturing indicators are also due for release. The jobs data "will help give closure on how U.S. employment conditions were panning out during the federal government shutdown," Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC, wrote in a research report. "The Fed’s messaging last week gave us reassurance that the broad USD is not out of the woods yet." Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 75.6% probability of a hold in rates at the U.S. central bank's next meeting on 28 January, unchanged from a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Markets will have to contend with a host of other policy catalysts during the week with several central bank decisions due, including the Bank of Japan, which is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, while the Bank of England may make an equal-sized cut to 3.75%. The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold, alongside Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's Norges Bank. Against the yen , the dollar eased 0.1% to 155.07 yen, as traders braced for the BOJ's decision on Friday. The euro was steady at $1.17535 as peace talks to end the war in Ukraine made progress, with United States offering to provide NATO-style security guarantees for Kyiv. The British pound was flat at $1.3376. Against the Chinese yuan trading offshore , the dollar was flat at 7.0371 yuan, its weakest levels since October 3 2024. The Australian dollar edged up 0.1% to $0.66445, though the currency was little changed following a private survey showing that consumer sentiment slid in December after turning positive for the first time the previous month. The kiwi dollar added 0.1% to $0.5788. Both the Australian and New Zealand central banks have shut the door on any further rate cuts, providing momentum to the Antipodean currencies. Cryptocurrency markets made tepid gains after a pullback on Monday. Bitcoin was up 0.2% at $86,420.67, while ether = edged 0.6% higher at $2,963.54. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-defensive-traders-eye-delayed-us-jobs-data-2025-12-16/

2025-12-16 00:30

ORLANDO, Florida, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The final full trading week of 2025 is underway, but investors can't start winding down for the holiday season just yet, with artificial intelligence jitters and fiscal woes threatening to spoil the festive cheer. Wall Street, stung last week by gloomy warnings from tech giants Oracle (ORCL.N) , opens new tab and Broadcom (AVGO.O) , opens new tab , remains on edge about the profit-generating capabilities of AI. Sign up here. And even though the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week and unveiled a program of large-scale T-bill purchases, long-term bond yields are rising and yield curves are steepening – both inside and outside the United States. Does that mean investors should give up hopes for a "Santa rally?" Below are five charts that should give investors a flavor of what this week may have in store. 1. 30-YEAR BOND YIELDS' RAPID RISE Yields on long-dated bonds around the world are popping higher. The 30-year U.S. yield last week reached 4.8670%, its highest since early September, as it broke convincingly above the 2025 average of 4.77%. Long bonds now have to contend with the prospect of having both a White House seeking to run the economy hot with loose fiscal policy and a dovish-leaning Fed. Rising long-term yields are not just a U.S. phenomenon. Japan, Britain and Australia have been in the spotlight recently too, with the 30-year German yield last week leaping to its highest point since 2011. 2. YIELD CURVES' STEEP CLIMB U.S. fiscal concerns and inflation fears – partly reflecting President Donald Trump's trade and tax policy as well as the politicization of the Fed – are resulting in steeper yield curves overall. The two-year/30-year spread is close to reaching its widest level in four years. Steeper curves are typically seen as a reflection of "normal" economic and financial conditions. But that's not the case when the back end of the bond market is getting crushed by fears that the central bank has taken its eye off the inflation ball. 3. SILVER'S SPECULATIVE SPURT If you want evidence of a year-end speculative boom, look no further than silver. It's up 30% in the last three weeks. That is remarkable enough, but what this chart from Brent Donnelly at Spectra Markets shows is even more astonishing: an ounce of silver is now worth more than a barrel of U.S. crude oil for the first time ever, apart from when the price of oil futures briefly dropped below zero in April 2020. 4. ORACLE'S BLURRED VISION In recent months, Oracle has traded more like a "meme" stock than one of the world's biggest companies. Shares rose 36% in a single day in September and last week slid 15% in two days, a magnitude of decline only seen during the pandemic, 2008 and the dot-com crises. Oracle is increasingly becoming a bellwether of investors' broader sentiment about AI – and the current signals aren't looking good. 5. YUAN'S GROWING STRENGTH The U.S. dollar has held up well in the second half of the year, with the dollar index up nearly 2% in that period. But it has been on a steady downward path against the Chinese yuan . Going into the last full week of the year, this cross rate is at a 14-month low, with the 7.00-yuan barrier in sight. Given that China's trade surplus just topped $1 trillion for the first time, pressure is mounting on Beijing to allow the yuan to rise further – much further. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters) Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-charts-roi-column-graphics-2025-12-15/

2025-12-16 00:22

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - British regulator the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) launched a wide-ranging consultation on a range of proposed rules for the crypto industry on Tuesday, a day after the government said the industry would be regulated from October 2027. The FCA set out its proposals alongside research that shows that the proportion of UK adults holding crypto has fallen by a third, from 12% to 8% in the past year. Sign up here. Watchdogs globally are playing catch-up on rules for the crypto industry, with Britain seeking to align its regulation with the U.S. rather than the European Union. The FCA said on Tuesday that its rules would cover listings for crypto assets, measures to stop insider trading and manipulation, standards for crypto trading platforms and rules for brokers. It is also consulting on prudential requirements, regulations to make the risks clearer on crypto staking, better protections for crypto lenders and borrowers and potential financial safeguards for crypto firms to manage risks. "Regulation is coming – and we want to get it right. We’ve listened to feedback, and now we’re setting out our proposals for the UK’s crypto regime," said David Geale, executive director for payments and digital finance at the FCA. "Our goal is to have a regime that protects consumers, supports innovation and promotes trust. We welcome feedback to help us finalise these rules." The FCA is seeking feedback on its proposals before a February 12, 2026, deadline. The regulator has promised to finalise the regime by the end of next year. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/british-regulator-kicks-off-consultation-new-crypto-rules-2025-12-16/

2025-12-16 00:18

Dec 15 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said he is considering signing an executive order to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous drug, though he offered no timeline for the move. A reclassification could ease criminal penalties and reshape the pot industry by lowering tax burdens and making it easier for firms to secure funding. Sign up here. Trump had been expected to issue an executive order as soon as Monday, according to media reports last week. U.S.-listed cannabis-linked stocks such as Canopy Growth (WEED.TO) , opens new tab, . Organigram Global (OGI.TO) , opens new tab, SNDL (SNDL.CD) , opens new tab, Aurora Cannabis , Trulieve Cannabis (TRUL.CD) , opens new tab and Tilray Brands closed down between 4% and 13%. The stocks, however, remain above the levels they were at when news of the possible reclassification broke last week. Here is what such a move could mean for companies. WHAT DOES RECLASSIFYING ENTAIL? Under the U.S. Controlled Substances Act, marijuana is listed as a Schedule I substance, such as heroin, meaning it has a high potential for abuse and no current accepted medical use. Last year, the Biden administration asked the Department of Health and Human Services to review marijuana's classification, and the agency recommended moving it to Schedule III, a category for substances with a moderate to low risk of physical or psychological dependence, such as steroids. The Drug Enforcement Administration must review the recommendation and decide on the reclassification. WHAT WOULD BE THE TAX IMPLICATIONS? One of the biggest benefits of a reclassification would be that cannabis firms would no longer be subject to Section 280E of the U.S. federal tax code. That provision prevents businesses dealing in Schedule I and II controlled substances from claiming tax credits and deductions for business expenses. WHAT HAPPENS TO THE INDUSTRY? Class III classification could unlock banking access for pot producers, attract institutional investors, reduce taxes, and spur mergers and acquisitions. Securing funding remains one of the biggest challenges for cannabis producers, as federal restrictions keep most banks and institutional investors out of the sector, forcing pot producers to turn to costly loans or alternative lenders. Congress has also been debating further action for some time. The Secure and Fair Enforcement Regulation Banking Act (SAFER) bill, introduced in 2023, would ensure that all businesses, including state-sanctioned cannabis businesses, will have access to deposit accounts, insurance, and other financial services. WHAT COMES NEXT? TD Cowen analysts had said full legalization remains unlikely, citing a lack of meaningful support in Congress and limits on how far the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) can go through rescheduling alone. They said it is more likely that Trump will revive the reclassification effort, which would allow the government to regulate it. Some analysts, however, say a reclassification will not change much. Cannabis will remain federally illegal, interstate trade will not be allowed, and the silo system of each state deciding its own market rules will still apply, according to equity research firm Zuanic & Associates. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/how-us-marijuana-reclassification-could-help-cannabis-companies-2025-08-12/

2025-12-16 00:02

South Africa September-November coal exports to Israel doubled Colombia stopped shipments in August after ban over Gaza deaths South Africa is now Israel's top coal supplier SINGAPORE/CAPE TOWN/JERUSALEM, Dec 16 (Reuters) - South African miners are boosting thermal coal exports to Israel after top supplier Colombia in August ordered a total ban on shipments of the power-generation fuel to Israel, data from Kpler, LSEG and DBX Commodities showed. Colombia and South Africa are among Israel's most vociferous critics, with the South American nation's presidential decree enacting the export ban after accusing Israel of killing tens of thousands in Gaza including children. South Africa has accused Israel of genocide at the International Court of Justice, a claim Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected. Sign up here. Colombian coal exports to Israel dropped to zero in the three months ended November, data from analytics firm Kpler showed, after Bogota doubled down on an earlier ban and blocked supplies under long-term deals. Meanwhile, South Africa boosted exports by 87% to 474,000 metric tons in the three months to November on an annual basis, and is set to ship nearly 170,000 tons this month, the data showed. Coal exports to Israel rose 20% to 667,442 tons in the three months to October - the highest for a three-month period since February 2017, latest official data from the South African Revenue Service showed. "Four words explain this profound hypocrisy: talk left, walk right," said Patrick Bond, director at the University of Johannesburg's Centre for Social Change, who tracks coal exports from South Africa to Israel. More than a dozen South Africa-based coal exporters have been shipping electricity-grade coal to Israel since 2023, Bond said, with Kpler data showing that all cargoes imported by Israel since September came from South Africa. South Africa's mines ministry did not respond to requests seeking comment. Trade Minister Parks Tau said last year that sanctions against Israel would expose the country to a legal challenge under World Trade Organization rules. Colombia, also a WTO member, has not been challenged following its implementation of the ban. SOUTH AFRICAN EXPORTS SURGE South Africa has boosted shipments to Israel over the last four years and its 2025 coal exports will be the highest since 2017, with its share in Israel's seaborne coal market set to more than triple from 2024 levels to 55%, Kpler data showed. Still, Colombia would account for 42% of Israel's 2 million tons of coal imports this year, according to the data. Exports by Russia, which accounted for nearly a quarter of Israel-bound coal shipments in 2024, amounted to just one cargo of 55,000 tons, making up less than 3% of the market. "I would expect the trend of Colombian exports to Israel to remain close to zero in the short to mid-term," said Alexandre Claude, CEO of London-based DBX Commodities. "Colombia will redirect slightly more of its coal to other buyers. The country already has a highly diversified portfolio," he said. Israel's economy and energy ministries did not respond to requests seeking comment. A senior official at state-run Israel Electric Co said the country would stop using coal as a major power source by 2027. "The era of coal is finished in Israel. We will stop importing coal and use natural gas as a main source of energy and coal will be a backup in case of emergency," the official said. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-boosts-coal-exports-israel-after-colombia-ban-2025-12-16/

2025-12-15 23:57

Dec 15 (Reuters) - A levee breach in Washington state following days of heavy rain led to a flash flood warning and evacuation orders, but authorities said on Monday that repairs were underway. King County's director of emergency management Brendan McCluskey told the Seattle Times that repairs could take several hours and that officials were closely monitoring the Desimone Levee in Tukwila along the Green River, about five miles south of downtown Seattle, where a car-sized chunk of the levee was washed away by floodwaters. Sign up here. Images showed workers using heavy equipment to drop large sandbags into the hole, working to keep it from growing. Calls to McCluskey's office, along with that of the state Emergency Management Division, were not immediately returned. The National Weather Service said its flood warning related to the levee failure would remain in effect until at least 9 p.m. (0500 GMT Tuesday). The Washington National Guard said that it was sending Guard members to King County. The Guard has already been helping flood-impacted residents in the western part of the state over the weekend. Authorities have been concerned about levee breaches for days around Washington state, as torrential downpours hit a wide swath of the Pacific Northwest. The rains were spawned by a string of atmospheric river storms, vast airborne currents of dense moisture siphoned from the ocean, that swept inland over the Pacific Northwest, including parts of northern Idaho and western Montana, with upward of 20 inches of rain falling in some areas over the course of a week. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/flash-flood-warnings-follow-levee-breach-washington-state-2025-12-15/