2025-12-15 07:54

NEW DELHI, Dec 15 (Reuters) - India's merchandise trade deficit (INTRD=ECI) , opens new tab narrowed to $24.53 billion in November, driven by fall in gold, oil and coal imports, government export and import data released on Monday showed. Economists had expected the November trade deficit to be $32 billion, according to a Reuters poll, compared to a record deficit of $41.68 billion in the previous month. Sign up here. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration has rolled out measures including consumer tax cuts, an export promotion package and labour reforms to cushion the economy from the impact of steep U.S. tariffs. Modi spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump last week following a U.S. trade delegation's visit as New Delhi seeks relief on key export lines. Meanwhile, Washington is pushing India to lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers on U.S. goods and open its market to American farm products, including soybean and grain sorghum. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-trade-deficit-narrows-2453-billion-november-2025-12-15/

2025-12-15 07:33

ASTANA, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan's energy minister, Yerlan Akkenzhenov, said on Monday that a ruling in an arbitration case involving an international consortium developing the Karachaganak oil and gas condensate field was expected before year-end. Speaking to reporters in the capital Astana, Akkenzhenov said: "There are arbitration proceedings regarding the Karachaganak project. We expect a decision this month, and it should be made by the end of this year." Sign up here. The Central Asian country in 2023 launched claims against the developers of its Kashagan and Karachaganak oilfields over $13 billion and $3.5 billion, respectively, in disputed costs. Kazakhstan has clashed for years with international oil companies over costs, bringing multi-billion-dollar claims against them. Akkenzhenov also said that the government was gathering documents for a second, larger, lawsuit against the Kashagan consortium, the value of which has not been disclosed. He said that this case would be considered by the courts in 2026 and 2027. The ruling expected this month is on the field operated by the Karachaganak Petroleum Operating consortium, which includes Eni (ENI.MI) , opens new tab with 29.25%, Shell (SHEL.L) , opens new tab with 29.25%, Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab with 18%, Lukoil (LKOH.MM) , opens new tab with 13.5% and KazMunayGaz (KMGZ.KZ) , opens new tab with 10%. Critics say the government is simply seeking to increase its shares in key oil and gas projects in what amounts to "resource nationalism". Kazakhstan's authorities have rejected such criticism, saying their aim was to rein in costs inflated by Western majors. In August, Kazakh authorities said they were pressing ahead with a $4.4 billion fine against Kashagan for what Astana said were ecological violations at the field. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/kazakhstan-sees-arbitration-ruling-karachaganak-before-year-end-2025-12-15/

2025-12-15 07:30

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The United States' tightening grip on Venezuela’s oil exports could strangle the country's crude output and cut off President Nicolas Maduro's main economic lifeline, but it will have limited impact on the global market. The U.S. Coast Guard last week seized in mid-ocean a supertanker carrying Venezuelan crude to Cuba, marking a step-up in Washington's campaign against Caracas as the U.S. military continues to build up its biggest presence in the Caribbean since the Cuban missile crisis. Sign up here. The U.S. is preparing to intercept more ships transporting Venezuelan oil, Reuters reported last Thursday, while Washington has also imposed new sanctions on Maduro's family, six crude tankers and shipping companies linked to them. The military chokehold on Venezuela is intended to deter shipment of Venezuelan oil via the expanding "dark fleet" - unregulated, sanctioned and uninsured ships also used extensively by Russia and Iran. There are at least a dozen sanctioned crude tankers already inside Venezuela's exclusive economic maritime zone, according to Reuters analysis of LSEG data – many of which are now at risk of being seized. CRUDE REALITY The pressure is already having an impact on Venezuela's oil industry. The country’s crude exports had spiked in September to over 1 million barrels per day, the highest since February 2019, likely because state-run oil company PDVSA was depleting inventories in anticipation of tightening restrictions. Venezuelan crude exports are now set to drop in December to 702,000 bpd, the lowest since May, according to data from analytics firm Kpler. Meanwhile, there are signs that Asian buyers are asking for deeper discounts for Venezuelan crude to accommodate the growing trading risk. The tightening restrictions have also led to a drop in Venezuelan crude production, which declined by roughly 150,000 bpd in November from a month earlier to 860,000 bpd, following several months of production hovering above 1 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency. The drop is partly due to declining exports, meaning output could decline further if exports are constrained as Venezuela's storage fills up. On top of this, production could be severely curtailed if U.S. restrictions impede imports of naphtha and diluents that are critical for the extraction and processing of Venezuelan oil. Over two-thirds of Venezuela's oil production is of so-called heavy grade that is tar-like when extracted. Naphtha is used to reduce the oil’s viscosity, enabling it to flow through pipelines for export via terminals and tankers. Venezuela's six refineries can produce naphtha but have suffered from years of disrepair, leading the country's upstream oil industry to become heavily reliant on imports. Venezuelan imports of naphtha and chemicals are set to drop to 39,000 bpd in December, compared with 54,000 bpd in November and 89,000 bpd in October, according to Kpler. It is hard to estimate how much production will be impacted by naphtha shortages, however, as Venezuela imported large volumes in recent years that may have been placed partially into storage. But, regardless, a collapse in naphtha imports puts Venezuela’s production at high risk. A U.S. CARVE-OUT Venezuela's heavy crude production is unlikely to stop completely, though, regardless of the rising tensions, because President Donald Trump’s administration has issued Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab , the second-largest U.S. oil producer, with a special licence to continue operating its joint ventures in Venezuela’s Orinoco belt, which produce around 250,000 bpd. Chevron exports around 150,000 bpd of crude from Venezuela to the U.S. Gulf Coast, where refineries were built decades ago to process heavy grades from Mexico, Canada and Venezuela. Putting all of this together, Venezuela's oil production could decline by between 300,000 to 500,000 bpd because of lower exports and production restrictions, according to Reuters estimates. This figure, however, is unlikely to have much of an impact on today's well-supplied global oil market, which faces the prospect of a severe glut next year. Any shortfalls in the production of heavy crude would likely be offset by sharply increased output from Canada and the Gulf of Mexico, which also produce these types of grades. Indeed, installing a U.S.-friendly government that will lead to the removal of sanctions on Caracas could lead to a rapid revival of oil production in Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest oil reserves of around 303 billion barrels. The escalating tensions around Venezuela are already having a profound impact on the country's oil industry, but these effects are unlikely to reverberate across the world – unless, of course, the Maduro regime does fall, kicking off a rush of western energy majors back into the oil-rich nation. Want to receive my column in your inbox every Monday and Thursday, along with additional energy insights and links to trending stories? Sign up for my Power Up newsletter here. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), , opens new tabyour essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-squeeze-venezuela-oil-wont-create-global-crunch-2025-12-15/

2025-12-15 07:20

MUMBAI, Dec 15 (Reuters) - India's palm oil imports edged up in November as refiners took advantage of lower prices, boosting purchases of the tropical oil while reducing imports of the costlier soyoil and sunflower oil, a leading industry body said on Monday. Higher palm oil imports by India, the world's largest buyer of vegetable oils, could help top producers Indonesia and Malaysia cut stocks and support benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures , while putting pressure on U.S. soyoil futures . Sign up here. Palm oil imports in November rose about 5% from October to 632,341 metric tons, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said. Imports of soyoil dropped more than 18% to 370,661 tons and sunflower oil imports fell 45% to a two-year low of 142,953 tons, the industry body said. India also imported 5,000 tons of canola oil from the United Arab Emirates in the month, it added. Lower imports of soyoil and sunflower oil cut India's total imports of edible oils in November by 13.3% from a month earlier to a seven-month low of 1.15 million tons, the SEA said. In November, India imported a record 69,919 tonnes of soyoil from China after a supply glut prompted discounts from Chinese crushers, versus India's traditional South American suppliers. India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine. Palm oil is now about $100 per tonne cheaper than soyoil and nearly $200 cheaper than sunflower oil, prompting Indian buyers to step up palm oil purchases for December and January shipments, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house. "Some buyers have cancelled soyoil import contracts for December and January and are replacing those volumes with palm oil," he said. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/indias-nov-palm-oil-imports-rise-lower-prices-spur-buying-2025-12-15/

2025-12-15 06:39

Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia enter second week At least 38 people dead and half a million displaced on both sides Some fuel sent to Laos going to Cambodian forces, Thai military says Cambodia says Thai air force striking deep inside its territory BANGKOK/PHNOM PENH, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Thailand's military said on Monday that it has stopped fuel shipments passing through a border checkpoint with Laos because of fears they were being diverted to Cambodia, with which it is fighting a fierce border conflict. The Thai and Cambodian militaries are clashing at multiple locations along their 817 km (508 mile) land border, both sides said, with no signs of the fighting abating despite international efforts to negotiate a ceasefire, including calls by U.S. President Donald Trump. Sign up here. A special meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers - where top diplomats from both sides could have met - that was scheduled to take place on Tuesday had been pushed back to December 22 at Thailand's request, the Malaysian foreign ministry said in a statement. The neighbours have long disputed sections of the frontier, but the scale and intensity of the latest clashes - that stretch from forested inland areas near the Laos border to coastal provinces - are unprecedented in recent history. Over half a million people have been displaced by the fighting, which has killed at least 38 on both sides over the past eight days, according to national authorities, who mounted a round of evacuations in July when the neighbours clashed for five days before Trump helped broker a truce. RESTRICTIONS AT LAOS BORDER CROSSING Thailand's military has restricted the movement of all fuel supplies through the Chong Mek border crossing into Laos after receiving intelligence that these were being routed to Cambodian troops, said Thai defence ministry spokesperson Rear Admiral Surasant Kongsiri. "Our intention is not to cause impacts on the Lao people or government," he said at a press conference. The Laotian Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment. The military is also considering limiting the movement of Thai vessels into "high-risk areas" in Cambodian waters where they could be fired upon, a navy official said, adding that any such measures would not impact shipments from other countries. A sizeable portion of Cambodia's refined fuel imports such as gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel comes via the sea route, according to multiple trade sources, though an exact percentage of market share could not be confirmed. Singapore is currently the largest supplier of these fuels to Cambodia, Kpler ship-tracking data showed, with volumes so far this year totaling around 915,000 metric tons. Volumes from Thailand have fallen to around 30,000 tons this year, from less than 180,000 tons last year, the data showed. In a statement issued on Friday, Thailand's energy ministry said there had been no exports of oil to Cambodia after July. DRONE ATTACKS AND AIRSTRIKES Fighting is continuing at least nine locations along the frontier, with heavy exchanges of firing across four border provinces, including at the coast, Thai defence ministry spokesperson Surasant said. Cambodia said Thai forces had used drones and heavy artillery at multiple areas, alongside deploying its F-16 fighter jets for airstrikes in Siem Reap Province, which houses the country's second-largest city and the major tourist centre of Angkor Wat. "It is also noteworthy that the number of fighter jets and cluster bombs used by the Thai military to attack Cambodia has been increasing significantly," Maly Socheata, Cambodia Defence Ministry spokesperson, said in a briefing. Thailand's military is vastly superior to that of its neighbour, including a much larger navy and one of the best-equipped and trained air forces in Southeast Asia that has a fleet of 28 F-16s and 11 Swedish Gripen fighter jets. Thailand and Cambodia accuse each other of moves that led to a breakdown of July's Trump-brokered truce, which was expanded into a wider agreement to help settle the conflict in October. Bangkok insists that any end to the current fighting must start with a cessation of hostilities by the other side and a clear ceasefire proposal, even as Phnom Penh maintains that it is defending itself against military actions by its neighbours. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-cuts-laos-fuel-route-cambodia-border-conflict-deepens-2025-12-15/

2025-12-15 06:33

Rupee down nearly 6% on year, worst performer among Asian FX Lack of trade deal with US key drag Foreign investors sell over $18 billion of Indian stocks YTD MUMBAI, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee fell to a record low on Monday, pressured by a prolonged deadlock in U.S.-India trade negotiations and sustained foreign outflows from domestic equities and bonds. The rupee weakened 0.3% to 90.74 against the U.S. dollar, eclipsing its previous all-time low of 90.55 hit on December 12. Sign up here. The currency, Asia's worst performer this year, avoided steeper losses amid likely central bank intervention, four traders told Reuters. The rupee has declined nearly 6% against the dollar year-to-date, as steep U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods hurt exports to its biggest market and diminish local equities' appeal to foreign investors. Overseas investors have net sold Indian stocks worth more than $18 billion so far in 2025, making India one of the worst-hit markets in terms of portfolio outflows. Foreign investors have net sold bonds worth over $500 million in December. India's trade data for November is due later in the day, with economists pencilling in a $32 billion goods deficit, down from a record high of $41 billion in October. Remarks from India's chief economic adviser that the trade deal is likely only by March have bogged sentiment down, and outflows have been near-constant, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. India and the European Union, meanwhile, are also unlikely to finalise a trade deal by this year's end, Bloomberg News reported on Friday. This means the rupee has been unable to benefit from a broadly weaker dollar. The dollar index is down 1.1% so far this month. "The next support (for rupee) is at 90.80, after which we could see a crossover of 91 towards 92. RBI has clearly let the market to determine the price and has been intervening only to control any excessive volatility," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. Analysts at ANZ say that while an India-U.S. trade deal could spur a knee-jerk rebound in the rupee, its strength could fade if the RBI chooses to rebuild reserves by purchasing dollars. India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $687.3 billion as of December 5, down from the year-to-date peak of $703 billion hit in early September. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and the Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab were down 0.2% each, tracking losses in regional shares as sentiment remained tepid heading into a week of key data releases and central bank meetings. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-rupee-weakens-record-low-us-trade-deal-limbo-persistent-outflows-2025-12-15/