2025-08-29 19:45

OPEC+ supply increase expected to arrive in autumn Lackluster US demand expected as summer driving season ends Uncertainty over Russian supply impacts market sentiment Russian oil exports to India set to rise despite US pressure HOUSTON, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday as traders looked toward weaker demand in the U.S., the world's largest oil market, and a boost in supply this autumn from OPEC and its allies. Brent crude futures for October delivery , which expired on Friday, settled at $68.12 a barrel, down 50 cents, or 0.73%. The more active contract for November finished down 53 cents, or 0.78%, at $67.45. Sign up here. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $64.01, down 59 cents, or 0.91%. The market was in part shifting its focus toward next week's OPEC+ meeting, said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates. Crude output has increased from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, as the group has accelerated output hikes to regain market share, raising the supply outlook and weighing on global oil prices. "Overall, the bottom line is we're going to see a jump in supply feeding into a lackluster demand market," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. The U.S. summer driving season ends on Monday's Labor Day holiday, signalling the end of the highest demand period in the United States, which is the largest fuel market. "The market is beginning to wonder what effect the tariffs might have on the economic outlook next year," Lipow said, referring to tariffs imposed by the administration of President Donald Trump on U.S. imports from many trading partners. Crude supply increases have not made their way into the U.S. market yet, raising the possibility supply and demand will be in a tighter balance, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "The pessimism about demand, I'm just not seeing it," Flynn said. "Supply from OPEC is supposed to increase, but we're not seeing it in the U.S. I think things are going to stay tight." Prices rose earlier in the week due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil export terminals, but reports of talks between Ukraine's European allies about a possible ceasefire helped tamp down prices, Flynn said. U.S. crude inventories for the week ending August 22 showed higher-than-expected draws, implying late-summer demand was still firm, particularly in industrial and freight-related sectors, analyst Ole Hvalbye at SEB bank said in a note. Investors are also watching for India's response to pressure from the United States to stop buying Russian oil, after Trumpdoubledtariffs on imports from India to as much as 50% on Wednesday. So far, India has defied the U.S. and Russian oil exports to India are set to rise in September, traders said. "The prevalent view is that Russian sanctions are not forthcoming, and India will ignore U.S. sanction threats and continue buying Russian crude oil at heavily discounted prices," PVM's Varga said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-fall-with-expected-low-demand-upcoming-supply-boost-2025-08-29/

2025-08-29 19:40

US dollar index last down against euro after PCE data Oil prices lower with weaker demand expected Fed funds futures price in 89% odds of a US cut next month NEW YORK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Major stock indexes fell on Friday, with technology shares including Dell Technologies (DELL.N) , opens new tab leading declines, while the dollar weakened against the euro after U.S. inflation data kept alive expectations of a September interest rate cut. Dell dropped 8.9% after it reported results late Thursday that included high manufacturing costs for artificial intelligence-optimized servers. Other AI-related shares fell in the broader tech selloff including Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab, down 3.3%, and Broadcom (AVGO.O) , opens new tab, down 3.6%. The Nasdaq fell more than 1% and the S&P 500 technology index (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab fell 1.6%. Sign up here. The U.S. Commerce Department said on Friday its Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) 0.2% in July, versus an unrevised 0.3% increase in June and matching the estimate of economists polled by Reuters. In the 12 months through July, PCE inflation increased 2.6% after climbing 2.6% in June. Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PCE Price Index increased 0.3% last month. That followed a 0.3% rise in core inflation in June. "You have to love it when a plan comes together. Today's numbers on both the personal consumption, expenditure, and income, and spending, were right down the middle of the fairway," Art Hogan, chief markets strategist for B. Riley Wealth in Boston, said via email. "This leaves the door wide open for the Fed to cut rates in September and likely again in October and in December." Traders are now pricing in 89% odds of a cut by the Federal Reserve next month, up from 84% before the data. Traders had increased bets on more cuts after Fed Chair Jerome Powell last Friday adopted an unexpectedly dovish tone. The euro was last up 0.11% at $1.1696. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.09% to 97.79. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 92.02 points, or 0.20%, to 45,544.88, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 41.60 points, or 0.64%, to 6,460.26 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 249.61 points, or 1.15%, to 21,455.55. "Today is just weakness in the top of the market, in tech," said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina. For the month, the S&P 500 rose 1.9%, the Dow rose 3.2% and the Nasdaq added 1.6%. Major U.S. financial markets will be closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday. European shares closed lower, hitting their lowest in over two weeks, weighed down by British banks. Data released on Friday also showed French consumer prices rose slightly less than anticipated in August while Spain's European Union-harmonized 12-month inflation rate was steady at 2.7%. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 4.77 points, or 0.50%, to 951.57. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index fell 0.64%. In Treasuries, l edged higher as traders closed positions ahead of the long weekend and repositioned for month-end. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 1.6 basis points to 4.223%. The two-year note Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday said he wanted to start cutting interest rates next month and "fully expects" more rate cuts to follow, to bring the Fed's policy rate closer to a neutral setting. Investors are keen to see U.S. jobs data for August, which is due next Friday. They also are watching for more news on U.S. President Donald Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. A federal judge said on Friday she would set an expedited briefing schedule in Cook's bid to temporarily block Trump from firing her while she pursues a lawsuit that says he has no valid reason to remove her. Oil prices were lower. U.S. crude fell 59 cents to settle at $64.01 a barrel and Brent declined 50 cents to settle at $68.12. Spot gold rose 0.88% to $3,446.75 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-6-2025-08-29/

2025-08-29 19:37

SAO PAULO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Brazilian environment agency Ibama has notified 12 meatpacking plants, including two operated by JBS SA , of an inspection into their alleged involvement in a scheme to buy cattle from illegally cleared land in the Amazon rainforest, according to a document seen by Reuters on Friday. Ibama on Thursday announced it was looking into 12 plants for such violations, but did not name the companies. Sign up here. In a statement, JBS said it did not buy cattle from the farm that Ibama said had been illegally razed. The meatpacker added that it can provide further information to the agency once it gains access to the full inspection report. Privately owned Frigol and Mercurio are also among the 12 beef producers under review, the document seen by Reuters showed. Frigol responded that Ibama had made a mistake, adding it also had not bought cattle from the farm the agency said had been illegally razed. Mercurio Chairman Lincoln Bueno told Reuters a third-party firm monitors the origin of the animals it processes, and that it does not do business with properties with environmental and labor irregularities. Ibama on Thursday said it was inspecting plants that were "acquiring suspicious cattle, triangulated with 'clean' farms, to disguise their illegal origin." Ibama added that it had already fined six unnamed meatpackers 4 million reais ($740,000) for directly buying 8,172 head of cattle from what it called "embargoed areas." Ibama had also seized more than 7,000 head of cattle that were on 2,100 hectares of farms it had blocked from commercial use after illegal deforestation. It said it fined the violators a total of 49 million reais ($9.04 million), without specifying which companies or people they were. "Producing, selling or buying cattle from these embargoed areas is an environmental crime and those responsible are fined," Ibama's statement said. ($1 = 5.4212 reais) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/brazil-probes-jbs-other-beefpackers-buying-cattle-deforested-land-2025-08-29/

2025-08-29 19:34

In-line inflation data didn't shift market outlook for cuts Jobs data for August due next week Legal tussle between Trump and Fed's Cook to weigh on sentiment Investors jittery about Fed's independence NEW YORK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened against the euro and Swiss franc on Friday, on course for a 2% decline in August against a basket of currencies, as traders prepared for a U.S. interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. The dollar, which initially firmed after U.S. inflation data came in as expected, later gave up gains, failing to break a three-day losing streak. Sign up here. The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Friday that its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.3% rise in June. The data keeps the Fed on track for a widely expected rate cut at its upcoming meeting on September 16-17. Money markets are pricing in an 87% chance of an easing, up from 63% a month earlier, CME's FedWatch tool showed. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.09% at 97.803 in afternoon trading. "FX markets remain range bound as investors await the next U.S. labor market report on September 5th," said Dan Tobon, head of G10 FX strategy at Citi. Weak consumer sentiment continues to hang over an anxious market, which is rebalancing and hedging portfolios at month's end after U.S. equities rallied throughout August, said Uto Shinohara, senior investment strategist at Mesirow Currency Management. Moreover, U.S. President Donald Trump's campaign to exert more influence over monetary policy, including this week's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, has weighed on the dollar. A federal judge said on Friday she would set an expedited briefing schedule in Cook's bid to temporarily block Trump from firing her while she pursues a lawsuit that says he has no valid reason to remove her. "Market instability remains in focus, further fueled by media coverage surrounding Fed Governor Cook's hearing regarding her contested dismissal," Shinohara said. Trump is trying to reshape the Fed after repeatedly criticizing the central bank and its chair, Jerome Powell, for not cutting interest rates. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who is said to be under consideration by Trump to succeed Powell as the Fed chair, said on Thursday he wanted to start cutting rates next month and "fully expects" more rate cuts to follow to bring the central bank's policy rate closer to a neutral setting. "Interestingly, the FX reaction function to policy announcements and developments with the Fed seems fairly muted – this could be a function of illiquid summer markets," said Citi's Tobon. "Or it could be a function of markets expecting any changes at the Fed will lead to a cutting cycle similar to what is already priced. That reinforces our view it will be all about the data." EU INFLATION Euro zone consumers kept their inflation expectations mostly stable at or above the European Central Bank's 2% target in July, according to an ECB poll released on Friday. Data released on Friday also showed French consumer prices rose slightly less than anticipated in August while Spain's European Union-harmonized 12-month inflation rate was steady at 2.7%. The euro was up 0.11% at $1.1696 and sterling was flat at $1.3502. Both were more than 2% higher for the month. Against the yen , the dollar edged up 0.02% to 146.985 yen, while for the month it was 2.5% lower. Against the Swiss franc , the dollar weakened 0.26% to 0.7997 and was 1.3% lower on the month. Among other currencies, the New Zealand dollar was slightly stronger after Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chairman Neil Quigley tendered his resignation, citing the fallout over the handling of the sudden resignation of the central bank's governor earlier this year. China's yuan hit its strongest level in 10 months against the dollar as steady central bank fixings and a hot domestic stock market drive the currency higher, while the Indian rupee dropped to a record low, weighed down by worries about the economic impact of steep U.S. tariffs on Indian imports. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-trades-lower-with-fed-cut-view-course-monthly-drop-2025-08-29/

2025-08-29 19:09

LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Another batch of closely-anticipated U.S. jobs data, a high-level gathering in China, political upset in France and a blockbuster trial in Brazil are coming up this week. It's time to catch up with that post-summer read in. Sign up here. Here's your week ahead in global markets by Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rae Wee in Singapore and Anousha Sakoui, Dhara Ranasinghe and Marc Jones in London. 1/ WORK DISPUTE The next U.S. jobs report on September 5 could cement expectations of an impending Federal Reserve rate cut. The August non-farm payrolls report is expected to show growth of 78,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll, versus 73,000 for July. Last month's weak report, which included huge downward revisions for the prior two months, heightened market expectations the Fed will ease rates in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared to support those expectations at his Jackson Hole speech, saying that risks to the job market were rising. The jobs data coincides with wariness about threats to the Fed independence after President Donald Trump set about trying to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. 2/ POWER PLAY More than 20 world leaders are gathering at a regional security forum in China, in a powerful show of solidarity when Trump is seeking to double down on his vision of U.S. supremacy. Russia's Vladimir Putin, welcomed back on to the world stage by Trump in August, joins the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin. The event also marks the first visit to China by India's Narendra Modi in more than seven years, with Modi stressing on Sunday that India was committed to improving ties with China. Days later, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at Beijing's "Victory Day" parade. Markets should pay attention as Xi looks to position China as a global force in a shifting geopolitical landscape. China has increased deployments around Taiwan and the disputed South China Sea. Another round of China PMI releases, meanwhile, showed a mixed picture for the economy. 3/ BACK TO SCHOOL Pack away the beach towels and stow the deck chairs, summer (in most places) is over. Markets sense it too. In a foretaste of the pick-up in activity in September, French markets sold off this week on political turbulence and the Treasury curve steepened after Trump said he would fire Cook. France's Prime Minister, trying to get budget-cut plans across the line, has called a no-confidence vote for September 8. He is expected to fail. At the same time, the September Fed meeting will take place against growing angst about central bank independence. So, that's two already on the September market risks check-list. Stock markets near record highs, smack of complacency, and bond markets - where plenty of risk is priced in - are unlikely to breathe soon. 4/ BACK WITH A BANG The value of global mergers and acquisitions has hit highs not seen since the 2021 post-pandemic boom. Despite earlier market turmoil and a reduced number of transactions, by the end of the year, we could be near the $4 trillion in deals forecast by some dealmakers last year. Tariff-driven expansion, sector consolidation and cross-border strategic alliances are some of the drivers , opens new tab. Keurig Dr Pepper's (KDP.O) , opens new tab $18 billion takeover of JDE Peets (JDEP.AS) , opens new tab highlights how companies may be navigating rising U.S. tariffs. And the takeover of UK assets by largely U.S. bidders will likely continue given an ongoing valuation gap between the two regions. While some deals have taken longer to get done, downward pressure on rates and a strengthening macro environment will support M&A momentum, says BNP Paribas's UK head of advisory Kirshlen Moodley. 5/ HIGH STAKES Brazil's high stakes trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro enters its final stretch on Tuesday, with the far-right leader and seven of his closest aides accused of plotting a coup to overturn the 2022 election result. If found guilty, he could face over 40 years in jail. For markets, the immediate issue is that it could further rile Trump who has already imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods for what he calls the "witch hunt" against Bolsonaro. Some of Brazil's biggest exports, such as aircraft, energy and orange juice, have so far avoided the tariffs, so the concern is that Trump could turn his attention to them. A parallel case at Brazil's Supreme Court is investigating Bolsonaro and his son, congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, for trying to pressure justices to acquit the former president. That is crucial too as it could mean there is no Bolsonaro on the ballot for next year's election and Trump's attacks seem to have lifted current Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's popularity rating. https://www.reuters.com/business/take-five/global-markets-themes-update-1-graphic-2025-08-29/

2025-08-29 18:21

US dollar set for monthly loss of 2.2% Silver, platinum headed for monthly gain US core PCE firms slightly but matches expectations Aug 29 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose around 1% on Friday and were poised for their best monthly performance since April, as U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates next month. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $3,443.19 per ounce, as of 1:53 p.m. ET (1753 GMT), its highest level since July 17. Bullion has gained 4.7% in August. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 1.2% higher at $3,516.1. The dollar (.DXY) , opens new tab held steady, but was set for a monthly drop of 2.2%. A lower dollar makes gold less expensive for overseas buyers. U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in July while underlying inflation picked up as tariffs on imports raised prices of some goods. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index rose 0.2% month-on-month, and was up 2.6% on a year-on-year basis, both in line with expectations. "We have expectations of a Fed rate cut, or potentially two, throughout this year, (which is) generally supportive for commodity prices across the board, including gold and silver," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Traders increased their bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut by the U.S. central bank at the September policy meeting to a near 89% probability, up from 85% before the data. FEDWATCH Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment. Meanwhile, a federal judge on Friday will consider whether to block President Donald Trump temporarily from firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook while she pursues a lawsuit claiming Trump has no valid reason to remove her. "Gold is benefiting from this uncertainty (around Fed independence), as shown by inflows into gold ETFs of just under 15 tons in the last two days. Nevertheless, the upside for gold above $3,400 is looking increasingly limited," Commerzbank said in a note. Spot silver gained 1.7% to $39.77 per ounce, platinum added 0.3% to $1,362.86, and both metals were on track for monthly gains. Palladium was flat at $1,102.08, heading for a monthly loss. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-track-best-month-four-inflation-data-bolsters-rate-cut-bets-2025-08-29/