2026-02-01 21:12
Reuters Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global financial commentary. SYDNEY, Feb 2 (Reuters) - There are two factors that are largely beyond the control of OPEC+ and they are likely to determine the price of crude oil in the coming weeks. The first is whether U.S. President Donald Trump does decide to start a shooting war with Iran, and if he does whether both sides will be able to keep oil cargoes moving and production infrastructure intact. Sign up here. The second is whether China, the world's biggest crude importer, decides to ease back on its recent run of strong imports in light of the 16% jump in benchmark Brent futures in January. Given the current state of uncertainty gripping crude oil markets it made sense for the eight members of OPEC+ with output quotas to make no changes to production policy at their meeting on Sunday. The eight OPEC+ members, which pump about half the world's oil, raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December 2025, roughly 3% of global demand. They then froze further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption. In some ways things are moving in favour of the exporter group. Prices are up, but not high enough to start sparking concerns about renewed inflation and weaker economic growth in importing nations. Brent ended at $70.69 a barrel on January 30, just shy of the six-month high of $71.89 hit the previous day. The market narrative of a supply glut has also largely disappeared from the media and analyst discourse, with the focus more on the reshaping of Venezuelan oil flows after the U.S. intervention that led to the seizure of President Nicolas Maduro, as well as the current tensions with Iran. The Iranian situation is the biggest challenge OPEC+ faces, as it would not be in their interests to see a prolonged military conflict in the Middle East, even though they enjoy the likely $7-$8 risk premium in the current oil price. While OPEC+ members such as Saudi Arabia can lobby Washington, ultimately it's likely that Trump will make his own calculations as to whether he can attack Iran and achieve whatever goals he seeks, while still keeping oil prices low enough to avoid public anger and inflation at home. For now, the risk premium in crude oil is likely to remain until there is certainty on what actions the United States will take, and the consequences of those actions. CHINA IMPORTS However, one consequence of the rise in prices in January is that China may ease back on crude imports. China's arrivals hit a record 13.18 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, and they are likely to have remained robust in January, with commodity analysts Kpler tracking seaborne arrivals of 10.4 million bpd, to which about 1 million bpd of pipeline imports need to be added, giving a total of around 11.4 million bpd. The crude arriving in December and January would have been arranged three months to four weeks in advance, a window when oil prices were relatively weak, with Brent dropping to a seven-month low of $58.72 a barrel on December 16. With the current price above $70 a barrel it's likely that China will trim imports to levels sufficient to meet consumption, and hold off adding crude to its strategic reserve. China doesn't disclose flows into or out of commercial and strategic stockpiles, but it has been importing far more crude than it has been processing. A calculation of China's surplus crude can be made by adding imports and domestic production together and then subtracting refinery processing. On this basis China's surplus crude was 1.13 million bpd in 2025, and while not all of this would have been added to inventories, it is an indication that China was taking advantage of low oil prices to suck up much of the expected supply surplus. Past episodes of sharp increases in crude prices have resulted in lower imports by China, and if this dynamic repeats it's likely that by late March and into April fewer tankers will be arriving at Chinese ports. If China does trim imports by about 1 million bpd, that would likely result in the return of supply glut talking points, especially if whatever does unfold between the United States and Iran doesn't affect crude shipments and infrastructure. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/two-things-opec-cant-control-trump-china-imports-2026-02-01/
2026-02-01 16:48
Feb 1 (Reuters) - Elon Musk's social media platform X was back up after a brief outage affected more than 19,000 U.S. users on Sunday, according to outage tracking website Downdetector.com. The outage lasted about 45 minutes and was largely resolved by 12:04 p.m. ET, the website said Sign up here. X did not immediately respond to a request for comment The actual number of affected users may differ from what is shown on Downdetector, as the reports are submitted by users. The website tracks outages by collating status reports from a number of sources. https://www.reuters.com/business/x-down-thousands-us-users-downdetector-data-finds-2026-02-01/
2026-02-01 16:32
LISBON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Portugal's government approved a 2.5 billion euro ($3.0 billion) package of loans and incentives on Sunday to help people and businesses rebuild after the devastation caused by Storm Kristin, Prime Minister Luis Montenegro said. Storm Kristin swept across central mainland Portugal early on Wednesday, with wind gusts topping 200 km/h (124 mph) and heavy rain that killed at least six people, damaged homes, factories and infrastructure, and cut power to hundreds of thousands, authorities said. Sign up here. Montenegro said the public bank Banco de Fomento will launch a 1 billion euro loan programme to rebuild uninsured storm-damaged factories and a 500 million euro financing scheme to help them with their immediate cash-flow needs. The remaining 1 billion euros in aid includes a financing line to help people rebuild uninsured primary homes, covering up to 10,000 euros per house, as well as social security subsidies for individuals facing hardship or income loss, worth up to 537 euros monthly per person or 1,075 euros per family. He said that, given the "current exceptional circumstances", all reconstruction work will be exempt from licensing and prior urban planning, environmental and administrative approvals. "We are mobilising all our resources to manage the emergency responsibly, but also with hope...once again, we will rebuild Portugal," he said at a press conference. Montenegro said the government also extended the "state of calamity" declared in about 60 hard-hit municipalities until February 8, amid forecasts of more heavy rain and flooding, even though winds are expected to ease compared with last week. A state of calamity - Portugal's highest civil protection alert used for major disasters - allows authorities to mobilise emergency and armed forces, fast-track procurement and limit access to affected areas without curbing constitutional rights. Nearly 180,000 households were still without electricity on Sunday, as grid operator REN and distributor E-Redes scrambled to restore power, the companies said. ($1 = 0.8440 euros) https://www.reuters.com/world/portugal-launches-3-billion-package-help-rebuild-after-storm-kristin-2026-02-01/
2026-02-01 10:55
NEW DELHI, Feb 1 (Reuters) - India on Sunday cut a range of tariffs on capital goods and raw materials in a push to cut its dependence on China for products essential to the energy transition and to reduce costs for exporters hit by U.S. trade policies. Customs duty reforms, analysts say, are critical to achieving India's $1 trillion goods export target, arguing that lower input costs would help firms integrate into global supply chains and attract investment diversifying away from China. Sign up here. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said India will cut the duty on capital goods needed to process critical minerals and make lithium-ion battery cells, which will aid the nation's energy transition efforts and wean it off China. In the country's annual budget, Sitharaman also eliminated tariffs on sodium antimonate used for solar glass production and monazite, a source of rare earth elements used in permanent magnets for electric vehicles. China, which controls over 90% of global processing capacity for the magnets used for cars and other clean energy technology, placed curbs on exports of rare earth magnets last year, hurting EV production plans in India. Sitharaman made tariff concessions to support local production of marine, leather and textile products, all export-focussed industries challenged by U.S. President Donald Trump's punitive tariffs on India. India will also cut duties on raw materials to manufacture parts of aircraft to be used in maintenance and repair in the defence sector and separately on inputs for the electronics industry, Sitharaman announced. Analysts said the import tariff cuts signal continuity in trade policy, with incremental adjustments to align India's duty regime with new trade deals amid global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism. As the global economic order undergoes profound changes wrought by the Trump administration, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government on Sunday made a fresh bet on its manufacturing sector in the annual budget, but its reform plans fell short of expectations. The budget made a one-time concession for so-called special economic zones that typically manufacture for exports to sell into the Indian market, as such zones have unutilised capacity due to global trade disruptions. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/india-budget-india-cuts-tariffs-support-local-manufacturing-boost-us-hit-exports-2026-02-01/
2026-02-01 10:45
LONDON/MOSCOW, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Eight OPEC+ countries have agreed in principle to maintain a planned pause in their oil output hikes for March, according to three OPEC+ sources and a draft statement seen by Reuters ahead of their Sunday meeting. The countries had agreed the pause in output hikes for the first quarter in November. The formal meeting is now scheduled for 1400 GMT, two of the sources said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-agrees-principle-keep-planned-pause-oil-output-hikes-march-sources-say-2026-02-01/
2026-02-01 10:03
MILAN, Feb 1 (Reuters) - A child who was forced off a bus in the snow in northern Italy for not having the full fare will play a part in the opening ceremony of the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics on Friday, his mother said. Riccardo Z, an 11-year-old boy from a town less than 20 km (12 miles) from Cortina d'Ampezzo, did not have enough money for a bus fare surcharge introduced by the local transport company for the Olympics and had to walk six kilometres home in sub-zero, snowy weather, triggering outrage from parents and local authorities. Sign up here. After the incident the Milano Cortina 2026 Foundation contacted the family and offered the boy a symbolic role in the opening ceremony. "I've never seen him so happy and excited," his mother Sole Vatalano told Italian state broadcaster RAI 1. "It was the most beautiful gift they could have given him." The boy's story attracted nationwide media coverage in Italy, amid concern about price gouging for the February 6-22 Games. The Foundation has not disclosed the nature of the role for Riccardo, who is himself part of a junior skiing team. The Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Games will be the first Olympics jointly hosted by different venues. Over 1,300 performers, including around 1,200 volunteers from 27 countries, have been preparing for months for the opening ceremony in a rehearsal tent near Milan's historic San Siro stadium. San Siro, however, will not be the only stage of the show on Friday night. Sharing the global spotlight with the Lombardy capital Milan will be several ski resorts across northern Italy: co-host Cortina, Livigno in Valtellina and Predazzo in the Trento province, marking the first "widespread ceremony" in the history of the Games. https://www.reuters.com/sports/boy-forced-off-bus-snow-play-role-milano-cortina-opening-ceremony-2026-02-01/
