2025-09-23 06:08

Pakistan growth target hit as floods swamp farms, cities Crop Monitor maps 220,000 hectares of rice fields flooded Report flags risks to wheat sowing despite strong 2024 reserves Cotton shortfall may ripple through textile sector IMF to review FY26 budget agility after floods KARACHI/ ISLAMABAD, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Massive floods in Pakistan have struck both the rural heartland and industrial centres for the first time in decades, causing billions of dollars in damage while straining food supplies, exports and a fragile economic recovery. The government had been optimistic about 2026, pencilling in 4.2% growth on the back of a rebound in farming and manufacturing after the economy was stabilised under a $7 billion International Monetary Fund bailout. Sign up here. Instead, record monsoon rains since late June, amplified by dam releases from India, have submerged large swathes of Punjab and Sindh, the two most populous and economically vital provinces. While waters have yet to recede in many districts, officials and analysts warn the hit could be deeper than in 2022, when a third of the country lay under water, due to dual shocks to agriculture and manufacturing. Out on the plains, satellite images have traced the scale. A report from agricultural monitoring initiative GEOGLAM estimates at least 220,000 hectares of rice fields flooded between August 1 and September 16. In Punjab, Pakistan's rice, cotton and maize engine, 1.8 million acres of farmland have been inundated, according to the provincial disaster management agency. "About 50% of rice, and 60% of cotton and maize crops have been damaged," said Khalid Bath, chairman of the Pakistan Farmers Association. He said losses could exceed 2.5 million acres, worth up to one trillion rupees ($3.53 billion). "This is unlike anything we have seen in recent decades," said Iqrar Ahmad Khan, former vice chancellor of the University of Agriculture Faisalabad. He estimates at least a tenth of the country's crops are destroyed, with vegetable losses topping 90% in some districts. The timing is perilous: Pakistan is about to sow wheat, the crop that provides nearly half of the country's caloric intake. National reserves remain comfortable after a strong 2024 harvest, according to Crop Monitor, but the sowing window is at risk in fields still slick with silt and mud. "Food insecurity is coming, not just higher prices," Khan warned. UNDERPLAYING RISKS Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal acknowledged the floods would "set back" GDP growth and said a clearer damage tally would be ready in about two weeks. Pakistan's central bank said the deluge would cause a "temporary yet significant supply shock," and it put growth near the lower end of its 3.25–4.25% range. It argued the shock would be less severe than the $30 billion disaster in 2022, with stronger forex reserves and lower interest rates offering some resilience. But prices for wheat, sugar, onions and tomatoes have jumped, pushing a sensitive price index to a 26‑month high. IMF resident representative Mahir Binici said an upcoming review of the Extended Fund Facility this week will assess whether the 2026 fiscal year budget and emergency provisions can meet the nation's needs. Iqbal called on the fund to "help us mitigate the damages". Some economists say policymakers are underplaying the risks. "The floods will increase the current account deficit by $7 billion. They are worse than the previous floods," former finance minister Hafeez Pasha said. COUNTING LOSSES In industrial cities such as Sialkot - a hub for the textiles, sporting goods and surgical equipment that underpin Pakistan's exports - several workshops were marooned. The hit to agriculture is also a blow for manufacturers. Industrialists say cotton shortfalls will ripple into the textile sector, the country's top foreign exchange earner, while rice exporters warn Pakistan risks losing competitiveness to India as prices rise. "We had 400 acres of cotton, but only 90 are left," farmer Rab Nawaz said, near the historic city of Multan. At least 1,006 people have been killed since June 26, the National Disaster Management Authority said, while over 2.5 million people have been evacuated in Punjab and Sindh. In provincial capital Lahore, homes and small businesses were gutted. Mohammad Arif, a 50‑year‑old rickshaw driver and father of five, said he moved his vehicle to higher ground as his home was inundated. "We have been on the roads for three days," he said. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/pakistan-floods-batter-fields-factories-fiscal-plans-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 05:44

Sept 23 (Reuters) - A sixth tanker carrying liquefied natural gas from Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project discharged at China's Beihai terminal on Tuesday, according to Kpler's ship‑tracking data and LSEG. The Arctic Mulan offloaded more than 75,000 cubic meters of LNG at the southern Guangxi port, according to data compiled by LSEG, marking its second delivery to China since August 28. Sign up here. The tanker had previously loaded at Kamchatka in the Russian Far East, which has exclusively handled cargoes from Novatek's (NVTK.MM) , opens new tab Arctic LNG 2 project. Another vessel, the Arctic Vostok, also loaded at Kamchatka, was seen passing southeast of China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, according to LSEG and Kpler, although tracking data does not confirm docking at Beihai. The tanker is owned by Lule One Services Inc and managed by Ocean Speedstar Solutions, both registered in India, according to sanctions data provider OpenSanctions. Reuters could not immediately get in touch with the shipowners or the companies managing these vessels. Kpler's data showed that the vessel was in the Gulf of Tonkin on September 16, where the Beihai terminal is located. However, neither provider shows the vessel having docked at Beihai. Two more sanctioned tankers are currently underway. The La Perouse, carrying 150,000 cubic meters of LNG from Gydan in northern Siberia, has passed Cape Town en route to the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, the Arctic Metagaz, loaded with more than 133,000 cubic meters from Murmansk, is passing Japan and continuing south, according to Kpler's data, with no confirmed destination. The Arctic LNG 2, 60% owned by Russia's Novatek, was set to become one of the country's largest LNG plants, with a target annual output of 19.8 million metric tons, but Western sanctions have cast uncertainty over its future. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-receives-sixth-cargo-sanctioned-russian-lng-project-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 05:38

Wall Street's tech-fuelled rally breaks Treasury yields slide after Powell signals caution Nvidia, tech stocks, give back some of Monday's gains Gold hits a fresh high NEW YORK Sept 23 (Reuters) - Wall Street stock indexes broke a three-day string of artificial intelligence-fuelled records on Tuesday, and U.S. Treasury yields slid after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a cautious approach to the next U.S. interest rate decision. The central bank head offered few hints as to when the Fed might repeat last week's move to cut interest rates, and emphasised how delicate the balance is between balancing the threat of inflation with signs of weakness in the labor market. Sign up here. Tech stocks closed down after posting record closing highs in each of the last three sessions. Nvidia's (NVDA.O) , opens new tab shares fell 2.8% the day after the chipmaker shook up markets and reached its own record high stock price on plans to invest in OpenAI. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab led declines, falling 0.95%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 0.19%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 0.55%. The market is digesting the fact that the economy has shown resilience but data has been inconsistent "and is now dipping to more of a slowdown," said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors in New York. "With this being the third year of double-digit returns for the S&P 500, there needs to be another strong catalyst to move stocks materially higher. And right now, it is not clear what that catalyst can be," Pursche said. Shares in Amazon (AMZN.O) , opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab and Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab were also lower. MSCI's gauge of stocks in 49 countries (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 0.3%. Investors antennas had been up for signals from Powell on future rate cuts. After his speech on Tuesday, they fractionally shifted their expectations of a 25 basis point cut in October to 94% chance, from 89.8% on Monday. CME's Fedwatch tool now indicates a 5.9% chance of a pause. YIELDS DOWN, GOLD SOARS Treasury yields, which influence borrowing costs, declined. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 3.9 basis points to 4.106%, from 4.145% late on Monday. It had hit its highest level since September 5 during that session. The 2-year bond yield, which typically moves in step with expectations for rate moves from the Fed, fell 1.3 basis points to 3.588%, from 3.601% late on Monday. Gold basked in its safe-haven status to hit record highs, with the spot price last quoted up 0.47% to $3,763.82 an ounce. Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone, said investors were hedging their exposure to stocks by buying gold. Global equities have been supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts after it eased policy last week. "The markets are sanguine in this 'everything rally,' awaiting more evidence that further Fed easing will steer the economy away from any hard landings," BNY head of markets macro strategy Bob Savage said in a note. Markets have stayed dovish despite mixed messaging from the Fed itself. Before the chair's speech, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman largely dismissed inflation risks and said rates may need to come down faster to support the labor market. New Fed Governor Stephen Miran called for sharp rate cuts on Monday, while three colleagues urged caution on inflation. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was little changed at 97.24. Oil settled up more than $1 a barrel after a deal to resume exports from Iraq's Kurdistan stalled. This reduced some concerns about oversupply. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 05:19

Fed Chair Powell emphasizes balance between jobs and inflation Euro falls after rising for two straight sessions NZ dollar drops after appointment of new central bank chief Yen lower as traders assess candidates for Japanese PM NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar gained against peers including the yen, Swiss franc and euro on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing overnight. The dollar strengthened 0.54% to 0.795 against the Swiss franc , on track to snap two consecutive sessions of losses. Sign up here. The euro was lower against the dollar after German business morale fell unexpectedly in September. It was last down 0.69% at $1.1734 after rising for the last two sessions. Sterling declined 0.58% to $1.3443. It was steady against the euro , at 87.27 pence. INFLATION AND JOBS MARKET IN FOCUS "The dollar is a little firmer broadly against most of the G10 although it is still choppy and range-bound," said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street in Boston. "Based on our flows and holdings data, the dollar is still very underweight kind of within the real money community so I think it's due for a period of consolidation and that's ultimately what it's doing." Powell maintained a cautious tone on Tuesday, saying the Fed needed to continue balancing the competing risks of high inflation and a weakening job market in coming rate decisions. Markets are expecting quarter-point rate cuts at the remaining two Fed meetings this year and another in the first quarter of 2026, in line with the central bank's guidance after last week's meeting. This week's U.S. data will be in focus, particularly Friday's release of the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key input for shaping expectations on the Fed's next policy steps. "We are still data point-to-point with regard to the Fed, and that's going to be the catalyst for rates and the dollar in terms of determining how aggressive or hawkish the market starts to view the Fed," Loh added. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, added 0.65% at 97.87, attempting to claw back ground after two straight losing sessions. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak later in the day. "The market is adjusting after what has been quite a rally in these other currencies," said Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Hard Currency Fund in California. "So even with the absence of news, you would expect some sort of breather. . . Powell was more explicit in the uncertainty ahead and I had the feeling in the press conference that he was bending over backwards in arguing why he needs to cut rates even though inflationary pressures continue to persist. But he was a bit more open-ended now and so maybe that's a bit more hawkish." NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR Candidates for the next leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party answered journalists' questions on Wednesday. Frontrunner Sanae Takaichi, a fiscal and monetary dove, said monetary policy was up to the Bank of Japan but higher rates could affect mortgages and corporate investment. Against the yen, the dollar added 0.83% to 148.85 yen , hitting its highest in three weeks and set to snap three straight sessions of losses. New Zealand's dollar traded down 0.79% at $0.581 after Swedish central banker Anna Breman was named as the next Reserve Bank governor, becoming the first woman in the role. The Australian dollar weakened 0.29% versus the greenback to $0.658. Data showed that inflation climbed more than expected to 3% in August, less than a week before the Reserve Bank's next policy meeting. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-pauses-breath-with-fed-speakers-focus-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 05:17

MUMBAI, Sept 23 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee dropped to an all-time low on Tuesday, with pressure intensifying after the U.S. raised visa fees, worsening an already weak outlook for the currency. The rupee declined to a lifetime low of 88.62 to the U.S. dollar, surpassing the prior record of 88.4550 hit about two weeks ago. Sign up here. The currency's decline followed a significant increase in H-1B visa fees, which could slow the deployment of Indian workers to U.S. clients and potentially hit the profitability of India's IT sector. That, in turn, may weigh on equity flows, with foreign investors re-evaluating their stakes in IT firms. Additionally, lower deployment of workers to the U.S. could weigh on remittances, hurting dollar inflows into India. The timing of the visa fee hike compounds existing external pressures, with 50% U.S. tariffs on Indian goods - the highest among Asian peers - already expected to dent exports. "For the rupee, the pressures have increased in terms of tariffs kicking in at 50% and the recent visa news is incrementally negative for equity flows, especially into the IT sector," Dhiraj Nim, FX strategist at ANZ Bank, said. The Reserve Bank of India has room to let the rupee weaken at a measured pace, he said. With inflation expected at around 4–4.5% in fiscal year 2026-27, a modest decline would be manageable, he added. There are indications that the RBI is following this approach. The central bank has intervened in the market to support to the rupee without defending any specific level. Interventions are calibrated to ensure that the currency’s depreciation remains orderly, allowing the rupee to adjust without triggering market disruption, bankers said. On Tuesday, the central bank likely sold dollars via state-run banks near the 88.50 level to support the rupee before allowing it to slide further. The rupee has lagged its Asian peers year-to-date, failing to benefit from the dollar index’s recent decline. Heavy U.S. tariffs on Indian goods have dampened export prospects and curtailed foreign capital inflows, weighing on the currency. Foreign investors have taken out more than $15 billion from Indian equities in 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-rupee-slides-all-time-low-us-visa-hike-subdued-foreign-flows-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 04:41

Sept 23 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. A quieter session in Asia with Tokyo on holiday, but South Korea and Taiwan still managed to notch fresh all-time highs amid the love affair with all things AI. Sign up here. The latest tryst being Nvidia's (.NVDA) , opens new tab intent to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI with the first data centre gear to be delivered in the second half of 2026. Analysts' opinion seems rather mixed on this with bulls seeing it as OpenAI acknowledging there is no alternative to Nvidia GPUs, but others wondering why Nvidia is funding a customer to buy its equipment. There's a lot of interest in whether the flash PMIs for September out today will continue to show resilience in the face of U.S. tariffs. The Australian numbers were disappointing, but don't have a good correlation with growth there. The EU are seen holding above 50.0, albeit not by much, while the U.S. versions are seen pulling back a little but still in positive territory. The main event later will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell who gets to speak on the economic outlook and takes questions on policy - that's at 1235 EDT/1635 GMT. Markets remain doggedly dovish despite mixed messaging from the Fed itself. Speaking on Monday, new Fed Governor Stephen Miran, hand picked by President Trump, argued for big cuts, but three of his colleagues sounded cautious on inflation. Futures imply around a 90% chance of a further quarter-point rate cut in October, and a 75% probability of an easing in December as well. As an added wrinkle, the clock is also ticking to a possible U.S. government shutdown on September 30, with President Trump due to meet top Democratic leaders on Thursday. Investors have assumed some sort of an extension would get hashed out, but the deadlock in the Senate seems real this time. Which raises the risk of a shutdown that would be especially badly timed for markets and the Fed. As analysts at Nomura noted, when the government shuts so do its data releases. If the standoff was protracted, reports on payrolls, CPI, retail sales etc might go missing in action for the Fed's October 29 and December 10 meetings, leaving them flying blind on policy. Finally, Disney's decision to reinstate Jimmy Kimmel , opens new tab is an example of the power of consumer boycotts in an online world. Even a glance at social media sites will show how many people were cancelling their subscriptions, holidays, time shares, even their Disney weddings. Another headache for company boards. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: - Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook, appearances by Fed Vice Chair Bowman speaks and Fed Bank of Atlanta President Bostic - Riksbank monetary policy decision, media conference - Appearances by ECB Board Member Cipollone, Bank of England Chief Economist Pill, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem - Sept PMIs from Asia, Europe and US. US Treasury auctions $69bn of 2yr Notes https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-09-23/