2025-08-26 12:20
Trump fires Governor Cook amid push for more influence at Fed Cook's removal highlights worries over Fed independence EUR, GBP lead gains against U.S. dollar French bonds tumble as government faces collapse MUMBAI, Aug 26 (Reuters) - The dollar stumbled against major currencies on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump's unprecedented move to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook renewed concerns over the central bank's independence. The euro and sterling were up about 0.3% against the dollar at $1.1654 and $1.3491, respectively. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar was down 0.2% to 147.41 yen and it dipped against the Swiss-franc as well. Sign up here. Trump said he was removing Cook over alleged improprieties in obtaining mortgage loans, a step that could test the boundaries of presidential power over the Fed. In response, Cook said Trump has no authority to fire her from the central bank, and she will not resign. "Challenges to Fed independence pose clear downside risks to the Dollar in our view, owing in this case to both concerns around US institutions, and to the read-through to lower front-end US yields," analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note. Trump's announcement surprised markets but the reaction was relatively muted with investors caught between the concerns over politicization of policy and the payoffs for markets. The president has repeatedly berated Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, though he has stopped threatening to fire him ahead of the end of his term in a little under 9 months. "The story has been well-telegraphed," said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate FX and rates research at Societe Generale, referring to Trump's push for lower benchmark borrowing costs. Money markets are currently pricing in a near 81% probability of a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. Morgan Stanley on Tuesday became the latest brokerage to forecast a cut in interest rates in September, joining global peers after Powell hinted at policy-easing next month in a speech last week. While investors may be inclined to sell the dollar, lingering economic and fiscal worries in Europe also narrow the available currencies to bet on a decline in the U.S. currency, Broux said. France's government bonds fell on Tuesday as the country's minority government looked increasingly likely to be ousted next month, with main opposition parties saying they would not back a confidence vote announced by Prime Minister Francois Bayrou over his plans for sweeping budget cuts. The 10-year government bond yield rose to a peak of 3.53%, its highest since March and adding to Monday's 7 basis point climb. Bond yields move inversely to prices. Worries over renewed political instability in France added to jitters in global bond markets about the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which contributed to selling in government bonds from the U.S., Britain and Japan. US/GB/JP/ "The broader question for the euro is whether recent French news destabilises appetite for the euro more broadly, or whether this is an isolated French issue," analysts at ING said in a note. Cryptocurrencies remained choppy with bitcoin last up 0.2%, attempting to break a three-day losing streak, while ether climbed 1.5%. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-falls-trumps-move-fire-fed-governor-spooks-investors-2025-08-26/
2025-08-26 12:18
LONDON/BEIJING, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Prices of two rare earth elements needed for super-strong magnets have surged to their highest in more than two years after U.S. miner MP Materials (MP.N) , opens new tab stopped raw material exports to leading magnet maker China amid rising demand. China dominates the global supply chain for rare earths, accounting for 90% of refining capacity and around 70% of mined output, but the U.S. has pushed back, signing a deal with its biggest producer MP in July to refine its output domestically. Sign up here. MP's shipments had in the past three years fed 7%-9% of China's oxide production from mine output of rare earths neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) - vital to magnets that power electric vehicles, wind turbines and defence equipment - consultancy Adamas said. "MP's shipments were a very material portion of NdPr oxide supply for China's factories, so that's left a big void," said Ryan Castilloux, managing director of Adamas. The Chinese price of NdPr oxide , regarded as a benchmark, has jumped to 632,000 yuan per metric ton or $88 per kg, the strongest since March 2023, from $63 on July 9. Its 40% rally after several years of weakness will boost prospects for mine projects seeking investment outside China as the West seeks to wean off reliance on Beijing. Boosting the West's rare earth output became more urgent after China clamped down on exports in April amid a trade war with the U.S., prompting some auto plants to shut. The U.S. government announced a ground-breaking deal with MP last month stipulating the company halt shipments to China. It also offered price support to MP for the NdPr it produces based on $110 per kg, at the time about twice the Chinese price. MP had paused shipments to China in April due to high tariffs, but any shortage was masked by weakness in magnet demand due to Chinese export curbs, analysts said. U.S. rare earth ore supply to China slid in May and hit zero in June before jumping last month, probably due to the final MP shipments, they added. China's exports of rare earth magnets recovered to hit a six-month high in July after Beijing eased its export controls, having agreed a series of deals with the U.S. and Europe. PEAK MANUFACTURING SEASON NdPr prices have been weighed down by oversupply in recent years and in March last year, they sank to 345,000 yuan, the weakest since November 2020. Their recent gains have also been driven by a rebound in demand. "China is currently in its peak manufacturing season for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and consumer electronics. This cyclical uptick in demand has put additional pressure on available NdPr supply," said Neha Mukherjee, research manager for rare earths at consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Support has also come from uncertainty surrounding Chinese rare earth mining and smelting quotas, which were released this year without the typical public statement. Castilloux said some players may be anticipating lower quotas, adding that he expects a modest 5% increase in Chinese output this year, in contrast to demand growing at about 10%. Whether the rally will continue will partly depend on demand from magnet makers and whether they can absorb the higher prices, said Ellie Saklatvala, head of metal pricing at Argus. "Producers of NdPr products are relieved to now see prices lift away from loss-making territory – it’ll be a question for buyers such as magnet makers whether their margins are healthy enough to keep paying those higher prices for feedstock." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/rare-earth-prices-hit-two-year-peak-after-mp-materials-stops-china-shipments-2025-08-26/
2025-08-26 12:11
Modi to visit Japan August 29-30 Visit takes place with India-US ties strained by tariffs Critical minerals cooperation a priority for India and Japan Modi may announce new initiatives with Japan Modi to then make first China visit in over seven years NEW DELHI, Aug 26 (Reuters) - The leaders of India and Japan want to further their cooperation on issues such as critical minerals under the framework of the Quad group, New Delhi said on Tuesday before Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Japan. Ahead of the August 29-30 trip, Vikram Misri, India's foreign secretary, told a press conference that India attaches a high value to the Quad group, seen as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific, despite strained ties with fellow member the United States. Sign up here. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose additional tariffs of up to 50% on imports from India, mainly in response to its purchases of Russian oil and resistance to opening up the agricultural sector, has undermined decades of diplomatic progress between the two countries. That, in turn, has raised doubts about India's plans to host , opens new tab a summit of the leaders of Quad countries, which also include Australia, later this year. The last such gathering was held in the U.S. in September 2024. Misri said India is still in talks with the U.S. over the tariffs and keen to continue expanding its cooperation with the Quad countries. "The Quad is indeed an important platform for working on and promoting peace, stability, prosperity and development in the Indo-Pacific region," Misri said. He said that one of the Quad's goals is cooperation on critical minerals, which he called a priority for both India and Japan. "There's an initiative with regard to critical minerals that has been discussed recently overall with regard to how to make supply chains more resilient and also infrastructure development," he said, without giving details. Reuters reported in June that India had asked a state-run miner to suspend a 13-year-old agreement on the export of rare earths to Japan and to safeguard supplies for domestic needs, to cut India's dependence on China. Export volumes are not high and analysts say India lacks wide-scale technology and infrastructure to mine or process rare earths - a group of 17 elements used in products from lasers and military equipment to the magnets found in electric vehicles, wind turbines and consumer electronics. During his eighth trip to Japan since taking office in 2014, Modi and his counterpart Shigeru Ishiba could launch several new initiatives to respond to "emerging opportunities and challenges", Misri said, without giving specifics. Modi on Tuesday attended an event in Gujarat state to mark the start of EV production by Japan's Suzuki Motor (7269.T) , opens new tab, which also announced an investment of about $8 billion in India. From Japan, Modi will fly to the Chinese port city of Tianjin for the summit of the regional security bloc Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, his first visit to China in more than seven years. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-backs-quad-group-ahead-modis-japan-visit-amid-strained-us-ties-2025-08-26/
2025-08-26 12:09
September 12 - Major brokerages have turned buoyant on the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab index, betting on resilient corporate earnings and stable U.S. economy, despite companies flagging hits due to tariffs. As the gap widens between bullish targets from brokerages and cautious signals from companies, the market's trajectory may hinge on how effective tariff mitigation strategies would prove to be. Sign up here. In the past week, Barclays and Deutsche Bank became the latest brokerages to raise their year-end S&P 500 targets. Market participants expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver a rate cut at next week's policy meeting that could further aid equities following soft jobs and inflation reports. The U.S. economy is expected to grow between 1% and 2% this year, according to estimates from leading brokerages. Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, and the performance of major asset classes in 2025. U.S. recession forecasts: Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds: Real GDP Growth: * UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group * Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/brokerages-expect-global-growth-slow-late-2025-tariffs-geopolitical-tensions-2025-09-12/
2025-08-26 12:07
KYIV, Aug 26 (Reuters) - One miner was killed and three were injured in a Russian attack on a coal mine owned by Ukraine's largest energy company DTEK near front lines in the eastern Donetsk region, DTEK said on Tuesday. Russian invasion forces have in recent weeks stepped up their offensive in eastern Ukraine, where most of the country's coal mines are located. Sign up here. "The attack damaged the company's buildings and equipment and caused a power outage. At the time, 146 miners were underground, and efforts to bring them to the surface are ongoing," DTEK said in a post on Telegram messenger. It did not specify the location of the targeted mine or say how Russian forces hit it. Ukraine said this month small groups of Russian infantry had thrust some 10 kilometres (six miles) towards the main defensive line near the eastern town of Dobropillia, raising fears of a wider breakthrough that would further threaten key cities. Later, Ukrainian officials said Kyiv's troops had stabilised the battlefield in an area of the east where Russian forces had made a sudden push to pierce Ukrainian defences. https://www.reuters.com/world/worker-killed-russian-attack-coal-mine-eastern-ukraine-company-says-2025-08-26/
2025-08-26 12:01
Trump's move adds uncertainty to markets, says analyst SPDR Gold Trust holdings up 0.2% on Monday Inflation data on Friday to provide further clues on rate cuts Aug 26 (Reuters) - Gold prices hit a more than two-week high on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, a move seen by many as eroding the central bank's independence and undermining confidence in U.S. assets. Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,378.64 an ounce at 1143 GMT, having hit its highest since August 11 at $3,386.27 earlier in the session. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.3% at $3,426. Trump on Monday took the unprecedented action of firing Cook over mortgage borrowing impropriety claims. Some investors are seeing Trump's move as an attempt to secure a dovish majority in the Fed's members, said Carlo Alberto De Casa, an external analyst at banking group Swissquote. He added that this raises questions about the Fed's independence and adds market uncertainty that prompts investors to buy gold. Prices of non-yielding bullion tend to perform well when interest rates are low and in times of economic uncertainty. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose by 0.18% to 958.49 metric tons on Monday, from 956.77 tons on Friday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday signalled a possible rate cut next month, saying that job market risks were rising but inflation remained a threat. "Markets are pricing a 25 bps rate cut (in September). A jumbo cut would help gold further, but I don't see this as a likely scenario," De Casa added. Investors are awaiting further inflation data on Friday for more clues on the central bank's monetary policy path. Meanwhile, China's net gold imports via Hong Kong rose 126.81% in July from June, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed on Tuesday. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.2% to $38.47 an ounce, platinum was down 0.2% at $1,340.30 and palladium rose 0.5% to $1,091.25. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-hits-two-week-peak-after-trump-says-he-is-firing-fed-governor-2025-08-26/
