2026-01-30 19:00
Jan 30 (Reuters) - Gold investment allocations are being underpinned by a broad mix of overlapping geopolitical and economic risks, but around half of the risk may fade later this year, Citi said on Friday. Some of the core risks supporting gold demand - including U.S.-China tensions, China–Taiwan risks, concerns over U.S. government debt and uncertainty around artificial intelligence - were likely to keep prices elevated by historical standards, Citi said. Sign up here. However, the bank estimates that roughly half of the risks currently embedded in gold prices will either not materialize in 2026 or fail to persist beyond the year. "We see the Trump administration pushing for U.S. goldilocks during the 2026 midterm year, and we see an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, and eventual Iran de-escalation, as representing major declines in risk relative to today," the bank added. Earlier this week, spot gold advanced to a record high close to $5,600/oz on the back of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. On Friday, however, prices fell 12.6% as of 1840 GMT, headed for its biggest daily percentage fall ever, as the dollar firmed after U.S. President Donald Trump named former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as his choice to lead the U.S. central bank when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. "The nomination of Warsh, if confirmed, will further cement our longstanding base case that the Fed retains its political independence, another medium-term bearish factor for gold prices," Citi added. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/citi-sees-gold-supported-by-risks-with-some-fading-expected-later-2026-2026-01-30/
2026-01-30 18:31
WASHINGTON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said on Friday the U.S. central bank does not need to cut interest rates further unless the job market starts to deteriorate or inflation falls. The current 3.50%-3.75% policy rate range is neutral, Musalem said in remarks prepared for delivery to an event at the University of Arkansas. With the economy expected to continue growing above trend, there is no need to add monetary stimulus at a time when credit conditions and fiscal policy are both serving as "tailwinds," he added. Sign up here. "I see tailwinds supporting economic growth," Musalem said. "With inflation above target and the risks to the outlook evenly balanced, I believe it would be unadvisable to lower the rate into accommodative territory at this time." Musalem said he expected inflation to decline towards the Fed's 2% target from the current level about a percentage point above that level, but he also sees risks that it could persist. In addition, he said there is less risk now of a "substantial deterioration" in the job market. https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-musalem-says-no-more-rate-cuts-needed-with-policy-now-neutral-level-2026-01-30/
2026-01-30 18:25
BOGOTA, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Colombia's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 10.25% on Friday, its first hike in nearly three years and a larger move than most analysts had expected, as policymakers pointed to rising inflation pressures, a sharp jump in inflation expectations and mounting fiscal and external risks. The increase was approved by a divided seven-member board: four directors voted for the 100-basis-point hike, two voted for a 50-basis-point cut and one backed holding the rate unchanged, according to the central bank's statement. Sign up here. A Reuters poll found that 15 of 26 analysts predicted a 50-basis-point hike to 9.75%, with only one predicting a 100-basis-point jump. In its discussion, the board cited December inflation of 5.1%, slightly below end-2024, but noted that core inflation picked up to 5.02% in December, from 4.85% in November. The bank's long-term inflation target is 3%, plus or minus one percentage point. President Gustavo Petro raised the minimum wage by 22.7% for this year, which is expected to stoke prices. Analysts in a Reuters poll on Friday predicted consumer price rises will be 6.32% at the close of this year. The bank's technical team has revised its inflation outlook for this year to 6.3%, a significant uptick from a previous 4.1%, board head Leonardo Villar said during a press conference following the decision. Economic growth in 2025 will have reached 2.9%, but will fall this year to 2.6%, he added. The bank flagged a widening current account deficit, estimating it reached 2.4% of GDP in 2025, up from 1.6% in 2024, mainly due to faster import growth fueled by strong domestic demand alongside only modest export growth. The statement also highlighted elevated external uncertainty, citing risks from escalating trade conflicts, U.S. migration measures, geopolitical tensions and perceptions of Colombia's sovereign risk. "The government declares its total disagreement with the decision," said Finance Minister German Avila, who represents the government on the board, saying economic growth was on a sustainable path and higher rates could hurt consumption. Petro has repeatedly pushed to cut the rate. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/colombias-central-bank-shocks-with-100-bp-rate-hike-1025-2026-01-30/
2026-01-30 18:09
WASHINGTON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said on Friday it would be inappropriate to ask Kevin Warsh, his nominee to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, whether he would cut interest rates, but added he was confident Warsh was inclined to lower borrowing costs. Trump said he wasn't too worried about the Senate confirmation process for his nominee or a vow by Republican Senator Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, to block the confirmation of any Federal Reserve nominee until a Justice Department investigation of inquiry into the current Fed chair, Jerome Powell, is "fully and transparently resolved." Sign up here. "If he doesn't approve, we just have to wait until somebody comes in that will approve it," Trump told reporters. "I saw that; he wants to be an obstructionist." Tillis, who is not running for re-election in 2026, sits on the Senate Banking Committee, which is in charge of Fed confirmations. The committee has a narrow 13-11 Republican majority, so losing just one vote could hold up the process of getting the nomination before the full Senate, where Republicans have just a three-vote majority. Trump said it would probably be inappropriate to ask Warsh about his specific plans for interest rates, adding, "I want to keep it nice and pure". But he said Warsh had said he favored rate cuts, adding, "He's going to want to do the same thing." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-calls-rate-questions-fed-nominee-warsh-inappropriate-confident-cuts-2026-01-30/
2026-01-30 17:52
DAKAR, Jan 30 (Reuters) - China’s Baowu Resources, the world’s largest steelmaker, has tightened its grip on one of the biggest untapped high‑grade iron-ore deposits by taking control of the operator of Guinea's Simandou Blocks 1 and 2 after raising its stake in the Winning Consortium Simandou to 51% from 49%, the company said on Friday. The Singapore-registered parent company and its Guinean unit have been renamed Baowu Winning Consortium Simandou following the deal, the statement said. It was approved by Guinea on May 30, 2024 and formally completed on January 30, 2026. Sign up here. BWCS owns 85% of the Guinean operating company for Blocks 1 and 2, strengthening Beijing’s leverage over Simandou in a country that also exports bauxite and other minerals. On the southern Blocks 3 and 4, Chinese state groups also hold stakes via a Chinalco-led joint venture alongside Rio Tinto (RIO.L) , opens new tab and the Guinean state in the Simfer partnership. Simfer co-developed shared rail and port infrastructure with BWCS for Simandou, which debuted iron ore shipments in November after nearly three decades of stop-start development, regulatory disputes and infrastructure delays. Baowu said the deal confirms its long-term industrial and strategic commitment to “one of the world’s most significant integrated mining and infrastructure projects,” adding it will pursue “project competitiveness, the promotion of local content, (and) compliance with internationally recognized ESG standards.” At full-run rate, Simandou’s two mining hubs are designed to ship up to 120 million metric tons of high-grade iron ore a year through the shared rail and Atlantic port, positioning Guinea as a key supplier of the steelmaking material alongside Australia and Brazil. Guinea’s mines ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Guinea is also the world's largest bauxite exporter, with Chinese firms controlling over 70% of output. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-baowu-takes-control-simandou-iron-ore-operator-2026-01-30/
2026-01-30 17:27
Trinidad and Tobago will consider Venezuelan oil for refinery Prefers to award oil, gas blocks through direct talks In talks with Chevron, TotalEnergies for blocks award NEW DELHI/TRINIDAD, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Trinidad and Tobago is in talks with Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS) , opens new tab to restart its mothballed 165,000-barrel-per-day Guaracara oil refinery, Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal said, as the Caribbean nation looks to revive refining capacity shut more than seven years ago. The refinery, located in the south of the country, was closed in 2018 by a previous government that blamed massive losses and debt for its closure. Sign up here. "We can work out some type of new commercial structure (for Indian Oil)," Moonilal told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of India Energy Week. "If all things go well, I think by the end of this year or so, end-2026, we may be on target to start back some level of production." Trinidad and Tobago's crude output currently stands at under 55,000 bpd, Moonilal said. The Guaracara refinery previously processed crude from Africa, Russia, and neighbouring Venezuela. The country would be open to resuming imports of Venezuelan crude if the refinery restarts, Moonilal said, but its immediate priority with Caracas remains the development of shared offshore gas resources. "In the early 1990s, we actually had a contract for crude (with Venezuela). So it is something we can put on the table again," he said. "But at this moment, the priority is the cross-border gas fields." Moonilal said Trinidad and Tobago is backing Shell (SHEL.L) , opens new tab and BP’s (BP.L) , opens new tab request for U.S. authorisation to develop three gas fields, including one located in Venezuelan waters. Boosting gas production is critical to supplying the country's flagship Atlantic LNG plant and petrochemical facilities, which have been operating below capacity due to gas shortages. The minister also said his country prefers awarding exploration blocks through direct negotiations as the process is faster than bidding rounds. Trinidad and Tobago last month missed its own deadline to award three deepwater blocks to China's CNOOC (600938.SS) , opens new tab, despite its technical team concluding the bids met all criteria, three sources familiar with the process told Reuters. The Ministry of Energy's Permanent Secretary Karinsa Tulsie told Reuters she could not comment on the reasons for the delay. U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab was awarded an ultra-deepwater block through direct negotiations in August last year. The government has also approached Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab to gauge interest in offshore exploration and is holding talks with global companies including TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab, which is developing a deepwater discovery in neighbouring Suriname, he added. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trinidad-tobago-talks-with-indian-oil-revive-refinery-2026-01-30/
