2025-08-21 07:08

UK borrowing in April-July period 60 bln pounds Figure matches forecast by UK budget office Borrowing in July alone is smallest in three years Reeves is expected to raise taxes in her autumn budget LONDON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Britain's public borrowing in the financial year so far has matched the forecasts that underpin the government's tax and spending plans, offering a bit of breathing space to finance minister Rachel Reeves before bigger challenges later this year. Borrowing in the April-to-July period totalled 60 billion pounds ($81 billion), up by almost 7% from a year earlier but in line with a forecast of 59.9 billion pounds published by the Office for Budget Responsibility earlier this year. Sign up here. However, since the forecast was made Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government has backtracked on plans to cut spending in the welfare system and elsewhere, and there are expectations that the OBR will lower its economic growth projections. That means Reeves is still likely to be raising taxes or cutting spending in her budget in the autumn - probably by more than 20 billion pounds, according to analysts - to remain on track to meet her fiscal rules and avoid unsettling investors. In July alone, the government borrowed 1.1 billion pounds ($1.5 billion), the lowest borrowing for the month in three years, Thursday's data showed. The OBR had pencilled in an overshoot of 2.1 billion pounds for July. A Reuters poll of economists showed a median forecast of a 2.6 billion-pound deficit. Over the first four months of the tax year, an increase in April in social security contributions paid by employers swelled the compulsory social contributions component of the public finances by more than 17% to almost 64 billion pounds. Receipts from income and capital gains taxes rose by 8.3% to over 100 billion pounds, helped by the ongoing freeze in the thresholds at which people must pay income tax. Government spending on debt interest in the April-to-July period jumped by more than a quarter to 41.4 billion pounds and the strain on the public finances was likely to grow. "Rising inflation points to increases in the cost of index-linked borrowing later this year. Gilt yields have also risen through August," Dennis  Tatarkov, a senior economist at KPMG UK, said. He estimated Reeves in her autumn budget would need to plug a shortfall of 26.2 billion pounds to remain on course to meet her target of balancing day-to-day spending with tax receipts by the end of the decade. Media have reported that the finance ministry is considering ways to raise more money from the sale of homes. Earlier this month, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a think tank, projected the overshoot at 41 billion pounds. ($1 = 0.7435 pounds) https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-borrowing-data-offers-some-respite-reeves-before-budget-challenge-2025-08-21/

2025-08-21 06:41

Brent, WTI rise for a second session US crude, gasoline stocks falls raise demand outlook Focus on talks on Ukraine peace deal TOKYO/SINGAPORE, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Oil prices extended gains on Thursday, bolstered by signs of strong demand in the U.S., with uncertainty over efforts to end the war in Ukraine also lending support. Brent crude futures hit a two-week high in early trade and were up 41 cents, or 0.61%, to $67.25 a barrel at 0637 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 45 cents, or 0.72%, to $63.16 a barrel. Sign up here. Both contracts climbed over 1% in the prior session. U.S. crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels last week to 420.7 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, against expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.8 million-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks dropped by 2.7 million barrels, versus expectations for a 915,000-barrel draw, the EIA said, indicating steady driving demand during the summer travel season. That was also seen in a jump in the four-week average for jet fuel consumption to its highest since 2019. "Crude oil prices rebounded as signs of strong demand in the U.S. boosted sentiment," Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said in a note on Thursday. Hynes cautioned, though, that some "bearish sentiment remains evident as traders continue to monitor negotiations to end Russia's war against Ukraine." Traders and analysts expect oil prices to fall once a peace deal is reached, but any continued lack of concrete progress in negotiations could underpin the market. As U.S. and European military planners began exploring post-conflict security guarantees for Ukraine, Russia said on Wednesday that attempts to resolve security issues without Moscow's participation were a "road to nowhere". The drawn-out efforts to secure peace in Ukraine mean Western sanctions on Russian oil supply remain in place, and that the possibility of tougher sanctions and more tariffs on Russian oil buyers still hangs over the market. Russia, meanwhile, remains adamant it will keep providing crude to willing buyers, with Russian diplomats in India saying the country expects to continue supplying oil to India despite warnings from the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced an additional tariff of 25% on Indian goods from August 27 because of their Russian crude purchases. The European Union has also sanctioned Indian private refiner Nayara Energy (ESRO.M3) , opens new tab, which is backed by Russian oil company Rosneft (ROSN.MM) , opens new tab. Indian refiners initially backed off buying Russian oil but company officials at state-run Indian Oil (IOC.NS) , opens new tab and Bharat Petroleum (BPCL.NS) , opens new tab have bought Russian crude for September and October delivery, resuming purchases after discounts widened. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-extends-gains-amid-signs-strong-demand-2025-08-21/

2025-08-21 06:25

LONDON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Britain's borrowing in the current financial year so far has matched the official forecasts that underpin the tax and spending plans of finance minister Rachel Reeves, according to official data published on Thursday. Government borrowing in the April-to-July period totalled 60.0 billion pounds ($80.7 billion), in line with a forecast of 59.9 billion pounds published by the Office for Budget Responsibility earlier this year. Sign up here. However, since the forecast was made Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government has backtracked on plans to cut spending in the welfare system and elsewhere, and there are expectations that the OBR will lower its economic growth expectations. That means Reeves is still likely to be raising taxes or cutting spending in her budget in the autumn in order to remain on track to meet her fiscal rules and avoid unsettling financial markets. In July alone, the government borrowed 1.1 billion pounds ($1.48 billion), official data showed on Thursday. The OBR had pencilled in an overshoot of 2.1 billion pounds for July. A Reuters poll of economists showed a median forecast of a 2.6 billion-pound deficit. ($1 = 0.7435 pounds) https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-borrowing-line-with-forecasts-challenges-await-reeves-2025-08-21/

2025-08-21 06:24

Fed's Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming begins today Trump calls on Fed Governor Cook to resign over mortgage allegations Fed minutes show 'almost all' officials preferred leaving rates unchanged Aug 21 (Reuters) - Gold was little changed on Thursday as investors awaited cues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook ahead of its annual Jackson Hole symposium, which starts later in the day. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,338.89 per ounce, as of 0603 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery also lost 0.2% to $3,381.20. Sign up here. The U.S. dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab rose 0.1%, making greenback-back priced gold expensive for overseas buyers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Friday at the August 21-23 event, with investors watching whether he backs measures to bolster the labor market or focuses on curbing inflation. "We don't think gold prices are going to rise significantly and believe they are consolidating at the moment," said Brian Lan, managing director, GoldSilver Central. "Even if interest rates are cut slightly, we might see a slight uptick in gold prices, and...the $3,400 mark is possible. If not, then prices may continue to consolidate or possibly notch a little lower, closer to $3,300," Lan added. Last month, Fed officials Michelle Bowman, vice chair for supervision, and Governor Christopher Waller voted for a quarter-point rate cut to address job market weakness, but their stance lacked broader support. The Fed has held rates steady since December, with investors expecting an 85% chance of a quarter-point cut in September, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Gold typically performs well in a low interest rate environment and during times of heightened uncertainty. In politics, President Trump called on Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign over alleged issues related to her mortgages in Michigan and Georgia, intensifying efforts to gain influence over the central bank. Elsewhere, Russia said attempts to resolve security issues relating to Ukraine without Moscow's participation were a "road to nowhere". Spot silver was down 0.1% at $37.86 per ounce, platinum fell 0.6% to $1,332.30 and palladium shed 0.5% to $1,108.26. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-little-changed-investors-await-powells-remarks-jackson-hole-2025-08-21/

2025-08-21 06:22

MUMBAI, Aug 21 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee inched higher on Thursday as persistent dollar selling by foreign banks over the last few days that supported the currency and puzzled traders. The rupee was at 86.9750 to the U.S. dollar at 11:05 a.m. IST, up from 87.0650 on Wednesday. Sign up here. Foreign banks were on the offer in dollar/rupee again, extending the pattern seen over the past two sessions, traders said. The persistence of these flows has confounded markets regarding their origin, with many doubting they were exporter-related. One banker noted that portfolio inflows into equities and debt have been tepid, suggesting flows from custodian clients were unlikely. While the market was expecting the rupee to be rangebound, dealers said position adjustments or one-off large trades were the more probable drivers. That the rupee "is managing to hold up despite Jackson Hole event and the U.S. tariff overhang is surely surprising to many," said a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell is set to speak on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium where his remarks will be closely watched. His previous remarks at the meeting had previously shifted market expectations. Meanwhile, the August 27 deadline on which the additional 25% U.S. tariffs on Indian goods is implemented looms. If implemented, it would pose a fresh negative for the rupee. The currency last week had remained largely weak, making a low of 87.73. After giving good opportunity to exporters in the last week it is the turn of importers who are getting an opportunity to hedge their near-term payables, Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, said. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-rises-with-foreign-banks-keeping-up-dollar-sales-confounding-market-2025-08-21/

2025-08-21 06:21

GDANSK, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Polish energy group Orlen (PKN.WA) , opens new tab on Thursday reported a near 74% rise in its second-quarter profit, with a strong upstream performance helping to offset the impact of lower refining margins and asset write-downs. The company's core profit adjusted for changes in value of its oil inventories, or EBITDA LIFO, reached 7.72 billion zlotys ($2.12 billion), a result achieved despite booking 1.49 billion zlotys in write-downs, mainly in the upstream and downstream segments. Sign up here. The oil refiner's upstream business reversed a massive loss from the previous year, as its results were no longer weighed down by a one-off 7.7 billion zloty write-down following a government windfall tax levied to fund energy price freezes. Orlen's energy business saw its core profit rise by 368 million zlotys year-on-year, which the company attributed to increased gas and electricity distribution. Its consumers & products division reported a 363 million zloty year-on-year increase, driven by higher sales of gas and electricity. However, profits at its downstream business fell by 561 million zlotys year-on-year, hit by a less favourable macro environment. The group's second quarter refining margin declined around 10% from the year before to $11.3 per barrel. The results were also impacted by a 217 million zloty provision the company booked in relation to an arbitration ruling that allows Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) , opens new tab to retroactively raise gas prices. The company said in a presentation it expected its full-year LIFO-based EBITDA to be higher in 2025 than in 2024. ($1 = 3.6483 zlotys) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/polands-orlen-q2-profit-jumps-upstream-gains-offset-write-downs-2025-08-21/