2026-01-30 11:41

LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The pound dropped against the dollar on Friday, with the U.S. currency benefiting from growing expectations that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh will be unveiled as new Fed chair later on Friday. Sterling was last down 0.56% at $1.3742 weakening by a similar amount against the greenback as other majors. Versus the euro, the pound was little changed at 86.70 pence to the common currency. Sign up here. The pound's recent moves have largely been driven by developments elsewhere, though attention is starting to shift to next week's Bank of England meeting. Markets see the BoE as all but certain to hold interest rates steady but the focus will be on updated economic projections and policymakers' voting split as investors try to predict how much more easing the central bank will do this year. "Updated projections are likely to show a more benign inflation outlook, supporting the BoE’s easing bias," said Dani Stoilova, Europe economist at BNP Paribas. She expects the BoE to cut rates again in March, before an extended pause. Markets do not see a cut as the more likely decision until April. The British central bank publishes individual policymakers' votes and reasoning. There are currently a wide range of views on the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, meaning analysts spend some time trying to assess each voter's view. "Given the extent of division, the views of individual MPC members have become increasingly important. In fact, it is the slightly less dovish tilt in communications from Dave Ramsden and Sarah Breeden that underpins our expectation for a 7–2 vote split," Stoilova said about next week's meeting. "While both support further easing, in our view, they do not necessarily support back-to-back reductions." On the day, the focus remained on the new Federal Reserve chair. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would name Powell's successor on Friday. Bloomberg News reported Warsh will get the nod, while a person familiar with the matter told Reuters that Warsh had met Trump at the White House on Thursday. The dollar and long-dated U.S. bond yields rose on the reports. While investors think Warsh will be inclined to cut interest rates, they expect him to rein in the Fed's balance sheet. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-drops-dollar-lifted-by-fed-chair-speculation-2026-01-30/

2026-01-30 11:37

Jan 30 - Everything Mike Dolan and the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend. From the Editor Sign up here. Hello Morning Bid readers! The U.S. has long maintained that it has a strong dollar policy, though few can agree on exactly what that means. The greenback slid to its weakest level since early 2022 on Tuesday, a move initially sparked on Friday by expectations of joint U.S.-Japan intervention to prop up the yen. The decline accelerated after President Donald Trump responded to the currency’s slide by saying the dollar was “great” and would “find its level.” But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent helped steady the currency on Wednesday by reiterating the U.S. government’s long-standing “strong dollar” policy. Is this a flip flop? Not necessarily. A currency can be strong ‌even if it happens to be depreciating against others at the moment – especially when the currency in question appreciated almost 50% in the decade preceding 2024. Though, if the administration does eventually intend to put more downward pressure on the supposedly over-valued dollar, they could end up getting more than they bargained for. Investors, however, are more sanguine about the dollar’s prospects this morning, now that the race to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair has a new frontrunner: former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. While he has become a critic of the current central bank, he is perceived to be less in favor of radical monetary easing than other candidates. President Trump said he’ll announce his choice later today. One of the biggest movers against the dollar this week was, unsurprisingly, the yen. Japan’s currency strengthened to roughly 152 per dollar on Tuesday, though it has since given some gains back. This big move may suggest ‌that intervention is no longer necessary, but history suggests that’s probably not the case. The euro was another big mover, with the pivotal transatlantic exchange rate briefly soaring above $1.20 per euro for the first time in four years. Europe may eye this warily, however, as too much strength could make life more difficult for EU industrial exporters as well as the European Central Bank, which meets next Thursday. Amid the FX ructions, trade deals, diplomatic agreements and energy deals continued to be hashed out globally – just not with the U.S. The EU and India announced a long-awaited trade deal this week, while Britain and China celebrated a “reset” in relations on Thursday, after Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Xi Jinping pledged greater economic cooperation. European countries also announced an agreement to jointly develop a vast offshore wind ‍network, as the region seeks to trim its dependence on U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and tackle rising renewable energy costs. Staying on energy, U.S. natural gas prices soared as an Arctic blast swept across the United States. The spike has also reverberated across overseas markets, highlighting the growing globalization of the U.S.-dominated LNG trade. The energy world’s attention has now shifted back to the Middle East, where a U.S. toward Iran. While prices slipped early on Friday, with expectations of further negotiations between Washington and Tehran, rising tensions have helped push up oil prices by around 15% in January. Ultimately, though, crude is unlikely to break out of its narrow price ⁠band unless . Moving back to Wall Street, this week saw a host of mega-cap tech earnings, including Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Tesla. Results were mixed, but the big takeaway was that investors are ‍fine with massive AI spending, but only if growth remains robust. You might have expected the other big event of the financial week to be the Fed meeting, but it turned out to be a bit of a snooze-fest. Rates were held steady, as expected, and no major news came out of ‌the press conference. Chair ‌Powell obviously couldn’t say much about the debates surrounding Fed independence, but his silence speaks volumes about the difficult position the central bank has found itself in. He did offer some advice to his successor, and now Powell, like the rest of the financial community, will be keen to confirm exactly who that is. For more commodities and markets news, check out Reuters Open Interest , opens new tab. You can learn which high-flying energy stocks are currently catching investor interest, where the supply glut in the oil market actually is, and why the future of AI may be written in nuts and bolts. As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead. I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at [email protected] , opens new tab. This weekend, we're reading... MIKE DOLAN, ROI Finance & Markets Columnist: NYU professors Viral ⁠Acharya and Toomas Laarits, writing for CEPR's VoxEU, attribute the rise ⁠in U.S. Treasury yields since last April's tariff shock to a decline in the "convenience yield" tied to their "safe asset" status , opens new tab. RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: Energy analyst Nat Bullard's annual 200-slide deck , opens new tab is a true treasure trove of the latest data and charts on energy and decarbonization. JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI MARKETS COLUMNIST: "Bubbles as a Feature Not a Bug," a new analysis from Carlyle Group, contextualizes the current AI boom within the history of transformative technology. The bubble will deflate or burst, but that's part of the process, they argue. "The bottom line is that bubbles are endemic to technological revolution." , opens new tab CLYDE RUSSELL, ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist: This report from Australia's electricity market operator shows renewables have hit ‍a new record, supplying over half the nation's power for a full quarter. Coinciding with weaker wholesale prices, this demonstrates that high renewables penetration can be both reliable and cost-effective , opens new tab. ANDY HOME, ROI Metals Columnist: A new TradingPedia analysis shows that electric and hybrid cars now comprise over 25% of European auto sales. The data is broken down by country and manufacturer, and illustrated with some nifty graphics , opens new tab. GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: A new opinion piece by Infrastructure Investor argues that the growth of the U.S. power system is poised to be constrained by a global shortage of gas turbines that cannot keep up with demand , opens new tab. We're listening to... ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: On the recent Morning Bid podcast, Mike Dolan and Amanda Cooper discussed the latest Fed meeting, Iran tensions, and the big takeaways from this week's mega-cap earnings. If you subscribe to ‍Morning Bid today, you can catch Mike's preview of the week ahead this Sunday. And we're watching... RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: My fellow ROI columnist Clyde Russell joined the Gulf Intelligence daily podcast , opens new tab to discuss how China bolstered its strategic oil reserves with increased crude purchases last year. Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. Opinions expressed are those of the authors. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2026-01-30/

2026-01-30 11:22

Jan 30 (Reuters) - Futures linked to Canada's main stock index fell on Friday, as gold sank on expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump would nominate a more hawkish Federal Reserve Chair and oil retreated on easing supply disruption concerns in Iran. March futures on Toronto's S&P/TSX Composite Index were down 1.01% as of 5:50 a.m. ET. Sign up here. While Toronto's benchmark stock index (.GSPTSE) , opens new tab closed lower on Thursday after a pullback in precious metal prices, it remained on track for robust monthly gains of about 4.1%. Spot gold slid 6%, briefly slipping below the $5,000 mark, as the U.S. dollar strengthened on the imminent appointment of a new Fed Chair, though the safe-haven metal was still on pace for its biggest monthly gain since 1999. Speculation that the next Fed Chair would be more hawkish than current Chair Jerome Powell intensified after Trump's meeting with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh at the White House on Thursday. Warsh has been critical of Fed policy under Powell and said earlier that the central bank needs a "regime change". Oil prices fell, though still on track for a large monthly gain, after signs that the U.S. may engage in dialogue with Iran over its nuclear program, easing fears of supply disruptions. Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude were down 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, Trump, in a post on social media, threatened the decertification of Bombardier Global Express business jets and 50% import tariffs on all aircraft made in Canada, until the country's regulator certified a number of planes produced by the Canadian jet maker's U.S. rival Gulfstream. FOR CANADIAN MARKETS NEWS, CLICK ON CODES: TSX market report Canadian dollar and bonds report CA/ Reuters global stocks poll for Canada , Canadian markets directory https://www.reuters.com/business/tsx-futures-fall-gold-slumps-ahead-trumps-fed-chair-decision-oil-retreats-2026-01-30/

2026-01-30 11:20

TOKYO, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Hokkaido Electric Power (9509.T) , opens new tab said on Friday it will build a new gas-fired power station and a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Tomakomai, northern Japan, by the mid-2030s to meet rising electricity demand from data centres and semiconductor plants. The project is part of the utility's long-term strategy to expand its gas business, citing significant potential for a shift toward lower-carbon gas in Hokkaido, where oil and coal still account for a large share of energy consumption. Sign up here. The new plant will have a capacity of 0.5-1 gigawatts and will be capable of using cleaner fuels such as hydrogen and ammonia alongside gas, with operations targeted to start around fiscal 2035. The LNG terminal will be able to accommodate large carriers and will include a large LNG tank. Hokkaido Electric did not disclose the size of the investment, but the project will fall within the 2.5 trillion yen ($16 billion) it plans to invest between fiscal 2025 and 2035 under a long-term plan unveiled last year, Arata Tanimura, deputy general manager of corporate planning department, told reporters. The utility operates a gas-fired power plant and an LNG terminal in Ishikari, north of Tomakomai. Only one unit is currently in operation, while two additional units under construction are scheduled to start up by fiscal 2033, lifting total capacity to 1.7 GW. In December, the company said it would buy gas assets in Hokkaido from Japan Petroleum Exploration (JAPEX) (1662.T) , opens new tab for 31 billion yen, including production facilities, marketing operations and pipelines, to strengthen its gas business. Separately, Hokkaido Electric aims to restart its No.3 reactor at the Tomari nuclear power station in 2027, with No.1 and No.2 reactors targeted to return in the first half of the 2030s. ($1 = 154.1500 yen) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/hokkaido-electric-build-new-gas-fired-plant-lng-terminal-by-mid-2030s-2026-01-30/

2026-01-30 11:16

HOUSTON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Chevron's (CVX.N) , opens new tab fourth-quarter profits fell but came in ahead of estimates as it focused on cutting costs and making its operations more efficient to contend with lower crude prices throughout 2025. The only U.S. oil producer currently operating in Venezuela and now in the geopolitical spotlight after the U.S. capture and removal of former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro this month, Chevron also said on Friday that it was evaluating more opportunities in the country. Sign up here. Chevron's adjusted earnings for the three-month period ended December 31 were $1.52 per share, ahead of an LSEG consensus estimate of $1.45 per share. The figure was down from $2.06 a year before. Chevron said that Venezuela holds significant long-term potential. "We have been a part of Venezuela’s past for more than a century. We remain committed to its present. And we stand ready to help it build a better future while strengthening U.S. energy and regional security," CEO Mike Wirth said in a statement. The company currently produces 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Venezuela and could increase the figure by 50% within 18 to 24 months with additional U.S. government authorizations, Chevron CFO Eimear Bonner said in an interview. She was reiterating comments made during a White House meeting between President Donald Trump and oil executives earlier this month. Bonner added that the company would take a careful spending approach as it evaluated investment possibilities. "As we look for opportunities to grow, we will stay disciplined around capital, just as we always are," she said. The Trump administration eased some sanctions on Venezuela on Thursday as it seeks to revitalize oil production there. TOTAL OIL PRODUCTION WAS FLAT IN Q4 Chevron's total oil production was 4 million boepd during the fourth quarter, flat compared with the previous quarter, but up from last year after it purchased smaller oil firm Hess. The company said its performance was strong in Kazakhstan, the Permian Basin and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. It paid $12.8 billion in dividends in 2025 and repurchased $12.1 billion worth of shares, which came in at the low end of the company's guidance of between $10 billion and $20 billion. Chevron expects production in 2026 to grow 7% to 10%, boosted in part by projects in Guyana and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In the first quarter, turnarounds and downtime are expected to reduce Chevron's upstream production by 185,000 to 225,000 boepd, while downstream earnings could be $275 million to $325 million lower due to refinery turnarounds. Upstream earnings declined 30% year-over-year to $3 billion in the fourth quarter. Downstream earnings were $823 million, up from a loss of $248 million. The company noted higher margins on refined product sales. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-beats-q4-profit-estimate-eyes-venezuela-investment-opportunities-2026-01-30/

2026-01-30 11:06

Results due from about one quarter of S&P 500 companies Alphabet, Amazon, Lilly among those reporting Monthly US jobs report comes after Fed pauses rate cuts NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Another huge batch of corporate earnings including from megacaps Alphabet (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O) , opens new tab will test the U.S. stock market in the coming week after a disappointing report from heavyweight Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab weighed on equity indexes. Wall Street also will focus on the monthly U.S. jobs report due on February 6. This ‌week, the Federal Reserve pointed to signs of stabilization in the labor market as the U.S. central bank paused its interest rate-cutting cycle. Sign up here. With the stock market entering the fourth year of a bull market, investors have been wary of rising valuations, particularly for high-flying names benefiting from optimism over artificial-intelligence-driven profits. Microsoft, which has spent massively on infrastructure to support AI applications, saw its shares battered on Thursday after its cloud business failed to impress, while software shares were broadly punished amid further disappointment elsewhere in the industry. "For those companies where expectations have become very, very lofty, the onus is going to ‌be on them to deliver," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors. "Even if they show growth, if it is growth that is not up to the expectations of the market, there is a risk there that their stock price could be punished." Despite declining at the end of the week, the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab remained up over 1% for the year and not far from record-high levels. The index earlier in the week broke above the 7,000 level for the first time, ‍before pulling back. Investors in the coming days will continue to digest a series of developments on Friday, including President Donald Trump's nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to be the central bank's next chair. Stunning declines in prices of gold and silver on Friday, following huge climbs for the precious metals, also kept markets on edge. BIG EARNINGS WEEK ON TAP About one quarter of the S&P 500 is set to report quarterly results ⁠in the coming week, with strong expected U.S. profit growth a key source of optimism underpinning bullish outlooks for equities in 2026. Of 166 S&P 500 companies that reported results as of ‍Friday, 76.5% posted earnings above analysts' expectations, nearly in line with the 78% rate over the prior four quarters, according to LSEG IBES. Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to have climbed 10.9% from a year ‌earlier. In contrast ‌to Microsoft, Meta Platforms (META.O) , opens new tab -- another megacap company and major AI spender -- posted strong sales in its quarterly report that boosted its shares on Thursday. Investors will now focus on results and capital spending plans from Google parent Alphabet and Amazon, two other AI-focused "hyperscalers." "Although investor reaction to earnings announcements from a couple of the hyperscalers was mixed, it did confirm that capex spending on building out AI infrastructure will not see any letup," said Sid Vaidya, chief investment strategist at TD Wealth. Other companies set to report next week include weight-loss drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY.N) , opens new tab, chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) , opens new tab ⁠and media giant Walt Disney (DIS.N) , opens new tab. S&P 500 companies ⁠overall are expected to increase earnings by 15% in 2026, putting their financial outlooks under the microscope. "The stock market is largely reflecting the positive fundamentals that are driving that, and earnings growth is the biggest component of that," Vaidya said. A STABLE JOBS MARKET? The coming week's jobs report will also give Wall Street a critical look at the economy's health. The nonfarm payrolls report for January is expected to show growth of 64,000, according to a Reuters ‍poll. Data flow is normalizing following the lag effects from the 43-day government shutdown late last year that delayed key economic reports. The monthly consumer price index, closely watched for inflation trends, is due the following week. "We haven't really gotten a lot of clean looks at the state of the labor market and inflation because of that government shutdown last year, so we think those are going to probably be more important than usual," said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede. Following Wednesday's Fed meeting, markets are now pricing ‍in the central bank to hold off on further rate cuts until its June meeting, although any surprise weakening in the labor market could sway those expectations. "The broad sense is that the economy is on a decent growth trajectory here going forward, and I would expect that that alone should help to provide a little bit of a floor under payrolls," Baird said. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-heavy-earnings-week-jobs-data-test-us-stocks-after-microsoft-2026-01-30/