2025-09-12 19:32

Global stock index sticks close to Thursday's record Consumer sentiment dips to lowest since May Dollar rises with Treasury yields Gold trading near record highs NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - MSCI's global equities index stayed close to Thursday's record levels while U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday after going into reverse in the prior session when expectations climbed for U.S. rate cuts. The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers showed that U.S. consumer sentiment fell for a second straight month in September to its lowest point since May as consumers saw rising risks to business conditions, the labor market and inflation. Sign up here. Consumer inflation expectations for the next year stayed at 4.8% but inflation expectations for the next five years rose to 3.9% from 3.5% last month. "The University of Michigan sentiment study came in worse than expected and more importantly inflation expectations remained pretty high. That's sending yields a little higher," said Jack Ablin, founding partner and chief investment strategist at Cresset Capital. "Investors worry that expectations dictate reality and perhaps consumers will act accordingly if they expect inflation to be higher than usual ... and just perpetuate the inflation hamster wheel." Wall Street was a mixed bag after all three of its main indexes registered record closing highs on Thursday, when investors reacted bullishly to weaker-than-expected jobs data by ramping up bets that the Federal Reserve would make three rate cuts in a row, including a cut on September 17 after its meeting. "The market feels a little stretched and toppy. And now investors in the market are going to focus on next Wednesday and exactly what Jay Powell says, how he says it. Does he sound more dovish? What lines did he delete? What lines did he add?," said Kenny Polcari, partner and chief market strategist at SlateStone Wealth in Jupiter, Florida, referring to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and the Fed's written statement. "Rates are going lower for sure but I do think the market has gotten ahead of itself in terms of valuation." Thursday's U.S. consumer price report had been seen as the last major hurdle before the Fed meeting. But while prices showed a bigger-than-expected increase, market participants kept their focus on a separate report that showed a sharp rise in unemployment claims. On Wall Street at 02:52 p.m. the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 149.75 points, or 0.32%, to 45,958.25, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 10.97 points, or 0.17%, to 6,598.44 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab rose 124.18 points, or 0.56%, to 22,167.06. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 2.19 points, or 0.23%, to 973.64 while the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index closed down 0.09%, after giving up earlier gains. In currencies, the U.S. dollar rose on Friday, a day after falling on a surge in U.S. jobless claims and modest inflation, as investors prepared for interest rate cuts after a roughly nine-month hiatus. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.01% to 97.56. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.18% to 147.47. U.S. and Japanese finance ministers on Friday released a statement reaffirming that neither country would target currency levels in their policies. The euro was up 0.05% at $1.1739. On Thursday the European Central Bank had kept rates unchanged and signalled that it was in a "good place" on policy. After the meeting, ECB sources told Reuters the December meeting would be the most realistic time frame to debate whether another cut was needed to buffer the economy. Britain's economy recorded zero monthly growth in July, in line with forecasts but showing a sharp drop in factory output, weighing on sterling , which weakened 0.04% to $1.3567. In energy markets, oil prices settled higher after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian port suspended loadings, outweighing pressure from oversupply concerns and weaker U.S. demand risks. U.S. crude settled up 0.51% or 32 cents at $62.69 a barrel and Brent ended at $66.99 per barrel, up 0.93%, or 62 cents on the day. In precious metals, gold was showing its fourth weekly gain in a row and trading close to its Tuesday record high, as investors looked ahead to U.S. rate cuts. Spot gold rose 0.41% to $3,648.59 an ounce. It had hit a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-6-2025-09-12/

2025-09-12 18:28

Sept 12 (Reuters) - Gemini Space Station shares jumped 32.2% in their Nasdaq debut on Friday, giving the cryptocurrency exchange a valuation of $4.4 billion and capping a bright week for digital asset companies in a resurgent U.S. IPO market. The company's shares opened at $37.01, above an already raised IPO price of $28 apiece, at which it raised $425 million by selling around 15.2 million shares. The company marketed the IPO in the price range of between $24 and $26. Sign up here. Gemini's strong debut underlines how crypto firms have anchored the recent sharp rebound in the IPO market, as friendly regulatory policies and rapid institutional adoption have renewed investor optimism for digital assets. On Thursday, blockchain lender Figure (FIGR.O) , opens new tab had a blockbuster market debut, close on the heels of cryptocurrency exchange Bullish , whose shares more than doubled on their first trade last month. Meanwhile, the U.S. IPO market is reaping the benefits of fading tariff anxiety and a strong stock market to have its busiest week since July 2021. Swedish fintech firm Klarna (KLAR.N) , opens new tab went public on Wednesday in a hotly anticipated debut that could set the stage for more fintech hopefuls. "Gemini has chosen the perfect time to capitalize on the favorable environment, following the recent success of the Bullish IPO and regulatory shifts from a pro-crypto administration. For Gemini, the IPO is both a bid to raise capital for expansion and an effort to clean up its balance sheet," said Jacob Zuller, analyst at Third Bridge. GRIT TO GEMINI Following an IPO that was 20 times oversubscribed, the debut marks a striking turnaround for Gemini and its founders, billionaire twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss own about 75 million shares after Gemini's IPO, worth roughly $2.78 billion according to Reuters' calculations based on SEC filings. The company, once entangled in regulatory probes with the SEC and CFTC, has benefited from eased oversight of the crypto sector under U.S. President Donald Trump, who, along with family, has been an active player in the still nascent slice of finance. Gemini reported a net loss of $282.5 million in the first half of 2025, up considerably from $41.4 million in the year-ago period. Experts at Third Bridge said trading volumes are expected to rise, driven by institutional adoption, which represents the majority of the company's client base. "We're really excited to go into this next phase, improve transparency even further, to the marketplace and to our partners, and build upon the ethos that we've had for the past decade," said Dan Chen, Gemini's chief financial officer, in an interview with Reuters. Highlighting rising institutional interest, Nasdaq earlier in the week disclosed a $50 million strategic investment in Gemini that also likely boosted investor confidence. New York City-based Gemini joins Coinbase (COIN.O) , opens new tab and Bullish as a publicly listed cryptocurrency exchange in the country. Robinhood (HOOD.O) , opens new tab also operates as a digital asset exchange platform among its other financial services. https://www.reuters.com/business/winklevoss-twins-crypto-exchange-gemini-valued-44-billion-strong-nasdaq-debut-2025-09-12/

2025-09-12 16:14

Sept 12 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver interest rate cuts at all its three meetings this year, following data this week showing more modest inflation pressures. The two brokerages in separate notes said on Friday they now expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining meetings in September, October and December. Sign up here. The firms previously forecast one 25-basis-point cut each in September and December. The Fed is widely expected to kick off a new easing cycle in next week's policy meeting - its first since the 25-bps rate cut in December 2024 - after recent data pointed to a slowdown in the job market. Last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a rate cut was possible at the September 16-17 policy meeting, citing rising labor market risks, while cautioning that inflation remained a threat. Morgan Stanley said market conditions give the Fed room to move more quickly toward a neutral policy stance. According to the Wall Street brokerage, the Fed is likely to deliver four back-to-back 25-bps rate cuts starting next week and continuing through January, with two further cuts projected for April and July 2026. "While we currently do not have additional rate cuts in our forecast for next year, given that our inflation and labor market forecasts are inconsistent with rates below neutral, risks are skewed towards more reductions in 2026," said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. Traders have priced in a 95% chance of a 25-bps rate cut next week, according the CME FedWatch Tool, with a slim 5% chance of a deeper 50-bps cut. After a soft August labor print, Standard Chartered emerged as the only brokerage predicting a 50-bps rate cut by the Fed this month, diverging from the broader consensus. https://www.reuters.com/business/morgan-stanley-deutsche-bank-expect-three-us-interest-rate-cuts-this-year-2025-09-12/

2025-09-12 15:15

MEXICO CITY, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Mexican officials are set to speak with representatives from China next week about Mexico's planned tariffs on goods from the Asian country, President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Friday, saying the tariffs were not intended as a coercion measures. Sheinbaum added that the proposed measures, which are set to impact hundreds of goods from countries with which Mexico does not have trade agreements, notably cars sent from China, are not against any country in particular. Sign up here. China on Thursday criticized the tariff hike on Chinese autos, saying the move would undermine investor confidence and "seriously affect Mexico's business environment." "We have a very good relationship with China and we want to keep having a very good relationship with them," Sheinbaum said in her daily morning press conference. The fresh tariff measures are targeted to sectors which need to boost national production, Sheinbaum added. South Korea has also reached out to Mexican officials to initiate talks, she said. The Mexico-China Chamber of Commerce on Thursday called for Mexico to reconsider the measures, arguing they threatened the competitiveness of goods sold in Mexico and the adoption of electric vehicles in the country. Mexico is a major manufacturer of cars that it exports largely to the United States, but it also imports hundreds of thousands of vehicles each year. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexican-officials-speak-with-china-tariffs-next-week-2025-09-12/

2025-09-12 13:21

MOSCOW, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and her deputy Alexei Zabotkin addressed a news conference on Friday after the central bank cut its key rate to 17% from 18%. They spoke in Russian and the quotes below were translated into English by Reuters. Sign up here. *ZABOTKIN ON REASONS FOR FLUCTUATIONS IN ROUBLE EXCHANGE RATE I would like to emphasise that the fluctuations we have been seeing over the last three months are occurring at the lower end of the range in which the exchange rate has been trading for the last two years. Therefore, it is probably not worth talking about some kind of systematic weakening of the exchange rate. In fact, the fluctuations are occurring at levels that are relatively strong compared to the history of the last two years. *NABIULLINA ON THE IMPACT OF THE STRENGTHENING OF THE ROUBLE ON PRICES From our point of view, the main disinflationary effect (of the strengthening of the exchange rate) that occurred has already ended. *NABIULLINA ON POSSIBLE TAX INCREASES When making decisions, it is important for us to consider how balanced the budget is. The smaller the budget deficit, i.e. if there are additional expenses, it is better for them to be covered by revenue rather than by increasing the budget deficit, because if the budget deficit grows to cover necessary expenses, our rate will be higher. *NABIULLINA ON RECESSION Commentators tend to refer to two consecutive quarters of real GDP decline as a technical recession. However, there are three considerations in this regard. First, it is incorrect to consider this a recession if other indicators do not confirm it. Second, GDP data, especially quarterly data, is subject to significant revisions. That is why macroeconomists do not base their assessment of the economic situation solely on GDP, but must look at a more multifaceted picture. Third, estimates of seasonally adjusted GDP dynamics vary significantly. Indeed, in the first quarter, our GDP declined after a strong jump in the fourth quarter of 2024. And according to our estimates, which we will refine further, seasonally adjusted GDP in the second quarter of this year was higher than in the first quarter. Therefore, even the assertion of a technical recession today seems, at the very least, debatable. We do indeed have a cooling of the economy. This is natural when coming out of overheating, when production capacity must catch up with demand, as we keep saying. It's like when you're running: the faster you accelerate, the higher your heart rate rises, and the longer you have to run slower than usual to lower your heart rate and return to a steady pace. That is why we say that the greater the overheating, the more significant the slowdown that may follow. Yes, the situation varies across sectors. In sectors that are oriented towards external demand, the decline is greater, and it is linked to a reduction in external demand and prices for our export goods, as well as the continuation of structural shifts in the economy, because the economy is increasingly oriented towards the domestic market. The decline in employment and capacity utilisation in these export-oriented sectors, given these structural changes, is not in itself a sign of recession. As for domestic demand, we are seeing continued growth, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous two years. And, according to our estimates, domestic demand in the second quarter was higher than in the first quarter, adjusted for seasonality. And if we look at the first half of the year as a whole, consumption and investment were higher than in the second half of 2024, but again with a seasonally smoothed expression. What indicators do we use to judge this? We look at a wide range of indicators, including monitoring of enterprises. We have an extensive sample of enterprises that make assessments of current demand and expected demand. In addition, we rely on information about payments through the bank's payment system, analyse data from cash registers, and so on. Based on this operational data, what can be said about the last two months, July and August? They are uneven, but overall they indicate some increase in consumption. NABIULLINA ON PAYMENT SYSTEMS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA We do not comment on the details of cooperation in the field of international settlements. In general, I can say that despite external restrictions, our banks and companies are developing various alternative payment methods. Therefore, international settlements do not currently have any impact on stability and monetary policy. NABIULLINA ON ECONOMIC GROWTH According to our estimates, the economy will continue to grow this year and next, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous two years. There can be no other outcome after the overheating, but it is still growth. Moreover, the more severe the overheating, the more noticeable the economic slowdown will be. When will growth accelerate again? In our view, when potential catches up with demand, when we finally emerge from overheating, and both demand and supply grow at a steady pace. For inflation, this will mean a steady return to 4%, and for interest rates, a return to neutral territory. We currently estimate this neutral territory to be 7.5%-8.5%. However, the reasons for the acceleration in growth are not the reduction in interest rates themselves, but the fact that the reduction in interest rates will mean that the economy is returning to a balanced state, with demand no longer outstripping production capacity. In the baseline forecast, this will happen by the beginning of 2027. If we try to accelerate growth now, before demand has caught up with the supply of goods, services, and production, inflation will accelerate and ultimately undermine sustainable growth. Therefore, we are determined to bring inflation down to sustainably low levels. NABIULLINA ON OPTIONS FOR KEY RATE DECISION Two options were considered at the meeting: lowering the rate by 1% and keeping the rate unchanged. The arguments in favour of keeping the rate unchanged were that monetary conditions had eased significantly and that we needed to assess the consequences of the decisions already taken. And, of course, we will need to obtain more information about what the budget policy will ultimately be. NABIULLINA ON THE BUDGET FACTOR Our decision today reflects our understanding, based on the information currently available, of how the budget will shape up at the end of 2025 and its parameters for 2026, 2027 and 2028. We assume that the budget will be disinflationary for the year, but the extent of this will be clarified when amendments to this year's budget are made. We expect the government to present specific quantitative characteristics by the end of September, and we will include them in our forecast update at the October meeting. And, of course, the budget factor is always important, as is the predictability of budget policy in general. NABIULLINA ON THE EXCHANGE RATE "We always take into account exchange rate dynamics. This is an important indicator of the degree of monetary policy tightness and the main indicator through which changes in external conditions affect inflation. With a monetary policy aimed at low inflation, a stable, self-sustaining weakening of the exchange rate is impossible. But fluctuations do occur. They are inevitable when economic conditions change. And, of course, we analyse all these factors when making decisions." https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russias-nabiullina-her-deputy-zabotkin-rates-economy-budget-2025-09-12/

2025-09-12 13:06

BUENOS AIRES, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank is set to keep its key rate unchanged at 15% in a meeting on September 17 amid persistently high inflation pressures, a Reuters poll showed. It would be the second consecutive time the bank stands pat after its last decision in July when policymakers halted a tightening cycle that added 450 basis points in rate hikes since September 2024. Sign up here. They are expected to maintain a cautious strategy that confounded some analysts who until recently had anticipated Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) to have turned more dovish by now. The bank's monetary policy committee, known as Copom, will keep the Selic rate at 15% on September 17, according to all 41 economists polled September 8-12. "Although the central bank has made progress in bringing inflation closer to target, it still faces a tight labor market, along with an uncertain international environment," said Jose Alfaix, economist at Rio Bravo Investimentos. "The appreciation of the exchange rate has been helpful, but there is no certainty it will remain at its current level," he added. In August, Brazil's consumer prices fell 0.11% from July, the first monthly deflation in a year, but rose 5.13% on annual terms, still running above the central bank's target of 3% with a tolerance band of 1.5 percentage points. Service prices increased 0.39% on the month in August in another sign of inflation pressures related to record low unemployment that analysts say warrant a continuation of Copom's holding pattern for a "prolonged period". Meanwhile, inflation expectations compiled in a weekly central bank poll continue above the middle goal of 3% despite recent improvement due in part to this year's strengthening of Brazil's real currency . Last month, central bank chief Gabriel Galipolo reiterated the need to keep the cost of borrowing at a restrictive level, citing a slow convergence of inflation expectations toward the official target. "Inflation expectations remain unanchored, while the underlying services core trend remains high, with a very gradual cooling," said Julio Cesar de Mello Barros, an economist at Banco Daycoval. "Given this scenario, the central bank should reinforce its message of caution and the need for a restrictive monetary policy for an extended period." Additionally, Copom is expected to highlight increased uncertainty from U.S. tariffs on Brazil that also was a factor behind the shift to a more cautious policy stance. In the poll, of 36 respondents who answered a question on when the Selic would be adjusted after next week's decision, 10 saw a cut in December, 13 in January, nine in March, and the rest in other months. Copom does not meet in February. Asked about the size of the next move, 23 of 36 leaned towards a 25 basis points reduction, 12 viewed a 50 basis points move, and one a 100 basis points cut. Median quarterly estimates showed the Selic staying at 15% until the end of 2025 and then falling a total 75 basis points to 14.25% at the end of the first quarter of 2026. (Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/brazils-central-bank-keep-rates-unchanged-15-september-17-2025-09-12/