2025-08-18 09:44
Aug 18 (Reuters) - Sterling treaded water against the dollar on Monday as investors focused on a pending meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and leaders from Ukraine and Europe as well as UK consumer inflation data due later in the week. Sterling was flat at $1.3547 on the day but has gained about 2% against the dollar over August so far, helped by upbeat economic data and a hawkish rate cut by the Bank of England earlier in the month. Sign up here. Britain's consumer inflation data for July is due on Wednesday and analysts at Goldman Sachs reckon that the domestic macro backdrop will continue to be a key source of volatility for the currency’s performance versus European peers. Goldman Sachs forecasts imply that core inflation in Britain edged down to 3.62% last month, from 3.66% in June and 9 basis points below the level implied by the Bank of England's projections. "Even with regional underperformance, though, we continue to expect sterling’s high beta to the Euro to support an upward path in GBP/USD," analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note. On Monday, the euro was down 0.1% against sterling at 0.8624. "We do think that the UK's CPI data is going to come in a little hotter this week. That should temporarily support the pound but PMI (data) on Thursday should reverse that," said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe. "We think you're going to see increased divergence between the UK and euro zone economies." The major economic event for global markets this week will be the Kansas City Federal Reserve's August 21-23 Jackson Hole symposium. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on the economic outlook and the central bank's policy framework on Friday. Money markets are currently pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will cut policy rates by 25 basis points next month. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-treads-water-markets-await-ukraine-talks-uk-cpi-2025-08-18/
2025-08-18 07:32
BEIJING, Aug 18 (Reuters) - China's Commerce Ministry on Monday extended its anti-subsidy investigation into dairy products from the European Union to February 21, 2026, according to a ministry statement. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-extends-probe-into-eu-dairy-products-february-2026-2025-08-18/
2025-08-18 07:14
Panicked residents run to higher ground after more rain Excavator machine at work to remove mud, fallen trees `It was like a doomsday scenario,` says a resident Rescuers shifting people to relief camps BUNER, Pakistan, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Heavy rain in northwest Pakistan halted rescue and relief operations for several hours on Monday before resuming in the northwest region where flash floods have killed over 300 people since Friday, officials said. The intense rain has claimed lives and spread destruction in several northern districts, with most people killed in flash floods, according to the National Disaster Management Authority. Sign up here. In hilly areas, the rains caused flash floods as well as mud and rock slides that washed away houses, buildings, vehicles and belongings. "It was like a doomsday scenario," 24-year-old university student Sahil Khan told Reuters TV, describing the flash floods. "Everybody is scared. Children are scared. They cannot sleep." Buner district was the worst hit, with over 200 deaths. Heavy rain in the flood-hit areas, including Buner, forced rescue teams to halt relief efforts for several hours on Monday, a regional government officer, Abid Wazir, told Reuters. "Our priority is now to clear the roads, set up bridges and bring relief to the affected people," he said. Residents in Buner's Bayshonai Kalay village panicked and ran to higher ground after a water channel that had earlier overflowed and caused major devastation started swelling with the fresh rain on Monday, according to Reuters witnesses. Rescuers from local government, the disaster management authority and the army used excavator machines to clear the roads and streets from mud, fallen trees and electric poles. Relief goods have been sent to the affected areas, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said in a recorded video statement on Monday. Food, medicine, blankets, camps, an electric generator and de-watering pumps are included in the relief goods, the authority said in a statement. Buner, a three-and-a-half-hour drive from the capital Islamabad, was hit by a cloudburst, a rare phenomenon in which more than 100 mm (4 inches) of rain falls within an hour in a small area, officials said. In Buner, there was more than 150 mm of rain within an hour on Friday morning, they said. More heavy rain was expected across Pakistan until early September, officials said. "The current weather system is active over the Pakistan region and may cause heavy to very heavy rainfall during the next 24 hours," the disaster management authority said on Sunday. Torrential rains and flooding this monsoon season have killed 657 people across Pakistan since late June, it said. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/pakistan-resumes-rescue-operations-flood-hit-areas-death-toll-over-300-2025-08-18/
2025-08-18 06:37
Aug 18 (Reuters) - There seems to be very little standing in the way of stock-market bulls right now, but what follows a U.S./Russia summit in Alaska, a central bank shin-dig in Wyoming and the outcome of Bolivia's election may imbue them with some caution. Here's your week ahead from Rocky Swift in Tokyo; Suzanne McGee and Rodrigo Campos in New York and Dhara Ranasinghe and Naomi Rovnick in London. Sign up here. 1/ BEGINNING OF THE END? Following Friday's meeting between Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, it's the turn of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders to meet the U.S. President later on Monday , opens new tab to map out a peace deal. The fear is Trump could try to pressure Kyiv into accepting a settlement favourable to Moscow. Zelenskiy has already all but rejected the outline of Putin's proposals, including for Ukraine to give up the rest of its eastern Donetsk region, of which it currently controls a quarter. No doubt, markets will be hesitant to price in an end to the war until a ceasefire, at least, is agreed. Europe, meanwhile, is unlikely to embrace Russia, even if peace returns to Ukraine. Defence stocks are likely to remain an investor favourite for now. 2/ JACKSON HOLE-IN-ONE It's officially summer in financial markets. Q2 earnings are out, the next crop of major economic data isn't until early September and many money managers and traders are heading out to the beaches for a break. There is just one thing to worry about: Jackson Hole. The Wyoming resort plays host to the annual central bankers' schmoozefest and will include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell among its attendees. The conference takes place as stocks hover near record levels, and Trump continues to take pot-shots at Powell. Jackson Hole has the potential to be disruptive. Any hint from Powell that a September rate cut isn't happening and markets could sell off hard, while an overly upbeat tone from the Fed chair may feed more euphoria. “And bull markets die in euphoria,” says Steve Sosnick, strategist at trading firm IBKR. 3/ STAGFLATION NATION As global stocks rally, everything from weak U.S. jobs data to trouble at the top of the Federal Reserve has been a reason to bet on U.S. rate cuts, meaning it's not been profitable to be bearish. About 60% of global investors surveyed by BofA think U.S. stagflation could be the dominant global market regime within three months. A basket of stocks that do well in stagflationary environments, where growth slows as inflation accelerates, has been outpaced by Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) , opens new tab this year, Societe Generale strategists reckon. Next week's business surveys, which can show economic trends months before they appear in official data, will offer more clues about whether U.S. tariffs are driving the world's largest towards stagflation. SocGen, however, expects Fed rate cuts to inflate a stock-market bubble that might not pop until at least next year. 4/ OUTLIER With nearly every central bank looking to cut rates to give their economies a soft landing, the Bank of Japan stands apart in its mission to raise borrowing costs - in theory. So, next Friday's inflation data will be in focus for any sign of when the BOJ's long-pledged tightening cycle will resume. The previous reading of the core consumer price index (CPI) showed an annual 3.3% increase in June, remaining above the BOJ's 2% target for over three years. No bank went harder or longer with quantitative easing than the BOJ. But the long road towards normalisation has been complicated by uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and concerns about whether Japan was seeing the right kind of price increases. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has justified slower rate hikes because underlying inflation, which focuses on domestic demand and wages, remains below the central bank's target. 5/ PICK ME Centrist senator Rodrigo Paz was leading Bolivia's presidential election late on Sunday. The election kicks off a string of national and local votes across Latin America that extends into late next year, when behemoth Brazil votes to elect a new (or sitting) president. After 2022's "pink tide" brought left-leaning governments to power in Chile, Colombia and Brazil, investors want to see if voters will return to more market-friendly right-wingers. Ahead of the Bolivian election, the country's bonds rallied on hopes that political change could bring the economy back from the brink. Argentina's local elections in September and October are seen as a gauge of the popularity of President Javier Milei's radical economic transformation. Chile votes for a president in November, while next year Colombia elects its congress in March and president in May. Peru holds a presidential election in April and Brazil does so in October 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-themes-update-1-graphic-2025-08-15/
2025-08-18 06:31
TOKYO, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Japanese steel lobby groups said on Monday they have requested the early introduction of measures to prevent the evasion of anti-dumping tariffs aimed at protecting domestic industries from unfair imports. The move comes as record steel exports from China, the world's largest producer, have sparked a protectionist backlash globally, with almost 40 countries starting anti-dumping investigations since January last year. Sign up here. The Japan Iron and Steel Federation and four other industry groups said swift action is needed as countries such as China attempt to avoid anti-dumping tariffs by routing exports through third countries or conducting minimal processing to evade duties. Japan has recently launched an anti-dumping investigation into hot-dip galvanized steel from China and South Korea, following a similar probe, kicked in July, into nickel-based stainless cold-rolled steel sheets and strips imported from China and Taiwan. Even if anti-dumping measures are imposed, without steps to prevent circumvention, "their effectiveness will be significantly undermined," Takanari Yamashita, managing director of the steel federation, told reporters. He stressed that the aim is to strengthen the anti-dumping system and ensure fair competition, not to pursue protectionism. According to the federation, 18 of the Group of Twenty (G20) nations already have anti-circumvention systems in place, leaving only Japan and Indonesia without such measures. Currently, if Japan seeks to address circumvention, it must launch an entirely new anti-dumping investigation. For this reason, industry groups are urging the government to establish separate tax rules from existing anti-dumping tariffs under the tax reform planned for the next fiscal year starting April 1. They are also calling for more trade investigators and improvements to the probe system. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/japan-steel-groups-seek-reforms-stop-tariff-evasion-china-exports-surge-2025-08-18/
2025-08-18 06:24
Zelenskiy flies to Washington on Monday to meet Trump Putin offers land swaps, security guarantees at Alaska summit Aug 18 (Reuters) - Gold rose after hitting a two-week low, supported by lower U.S. Treasury yields as investors awaited U.S. President Donald Trump's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders to discuss a peace deal with Russia. Spot gold gained 0.4% to $3,348.59 per ounce, as of 0609 GMT on Monday, after hitting its lowest level since August 1. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $3,394.90. "Gold was on the back foot to start the day, but...was able to reverse course with buyers stepping up to around $3,330 as a value play. U.S. treasury yields gave up some of Friday's gains which also helped to make life easier for the gold price," KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer said. European leaders are set to join Zelenskiy for discussions with Trump. Russia would relinquish tiny pockets of occupied Ukraine and Kyiv would cede swathes of its eastern land which Moscow has been unable to capture, under peace proposals discussed by Russia's Vladimir Putin and Trump at their Alaska summit, sources briefed on Moscow's thinking said. "We are seeing limited moves in either direction ahead of what could be some lively meetings in the White House this week with Zelenskiy back in town," Waterer said. Meanwhile, benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell from more than two-week highs. Investors are also looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Economists polled by Reuters largely expect the Fed to announce a rate cut in September, its first this year, with a possible second cut by the year-end. Non-yielding bullion, considered a safe-haven assets during periods of uncertainity, tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver edged up 0.1% to $38.02 per ounce, platinum gained 0.1% to $1,336.79 and palladium was up 0.1% to $1,113.52. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-rebounds-two-week-low-trump-zelenskiy-meeting-focus-2025-08-18/
