2025-09-10 21:18

Global equities gain on US producer inflation data Dollar index near flat, US Treasury yields fall Polish shares fall on geopolitical worries Gold holds near record, oil prices settle up $1/barrel Next up: US consumer price data due Thursday NEW YORK, Sept 10 (Reuters) - MSCI's global stock index advanced on Wednesday, hitting a record high, while Treasury yields touched their lowest level since April after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Geopolitical uncertainty boosted oil prices and kept gold near a record high following Israel's attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar on Tuesday, while Polandscrambled its own and NATO air defences to shoot down drones following a Russian air attack on western Ukraine. Sign up here. The U.S. Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index for final demand dipped 0.1% after a downwardly revised 0.7% jump in July. In comparison, economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.3% PPI advance after a previously reported 0.9% surge in July. Services prices fell 0.2% while goods prices edged up 0.1% after increasing 0.6% in the prior month. "Stocks and bonds clearly liked the PPI report. Inflation came in a bit tamer than many had expected," said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth in Minneapolis. "This lends credence to the theme that the Fed should not only cut once next week. This increases the likelihood Fed should be able to cut more than once before year-end." Traders see a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed next Wednesday as a sure thing, and lay roughly 10% odds on a super-sized half percentage-point reduction, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, which also shows bets for further cuts at both the October and December meetings. The final potential hurdle to those expectations - consumer inflation data - comes out early on Thursday. Investors worried about the central bank's long-held independence were likely encouraged that a court ruling temporarily blocked President Donald Trump from removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, a case that is likely to end up before the Supreme Court. Stephen Miran, a top White House economic adviser, cleared a U.S. Senate hurdle on Wednesday, advancing his nomination as Federal Reserve governor. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit intraday and closing records after the PPI data. The S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 19.43 points, or 0.30%, to 6,532.04, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab gained 6.57 points, or 0.03%, to 21,886.06. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 220.42 points, or 0.48%, to 45,490.92. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 2.65 points, or 0.28%, to 964.35 after hitting a record high. Earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index closed down 0.02% while Poland's blue-chip index (.WIG20) , opens new tab fell about 0.9%, underperforming other regional European markets. In currencies, the U.S. dollar struggled for direction after the soft inflation data. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.02% to 97.83. The euro was down 0.09% at $1.1696, while against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.01% to 147.4. "The economy has slowed, but isn't showing signs of crashing, and may even accelerate in the months ahead," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. "Inflation pressures seem subdued, but risks are tilted to the upside. For most market participants, a quarter-point (Fed) move remains the most plausible base case." In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 2.01% to $113,742.49. In U.S. Treasuries, yields fell after the drop in August producer prices, while a solid 10-year note auction lowered the benchmark yield further in the afternoon. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 2.9 basis points to 4.045%, from 4.074% late on Tuesday, while the 30-year bond yield fell 2.4 basis points to 4.6931%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2 basis points to 3.544%, from 3.542%. In energy markets, oil prices by more than $1 a barrel as investors worried about possible supply disruptions after Poland downed drones in its airspace and the U.S. pushed for new sanctions on buyers of Russian oil. Swelling U.S. supplies capped gains. U.S. crude settled up 1.66%, or $1.04 at $63.67 a barrel, and Brent ended at $67.49 per barrel, up 1.66%, or $1.10. Gold kept close to its record high hit during the previous session, supported by expectations for rate cuts following the softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,640.78 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.03% to $3,642.20 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-8-graphic-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 21:13

SAO PAULO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The Brazilian animal feed industry will produce slightly less than expected in 2025 after a case of bird flu in the country affected chicken exports and curtailed demand, industry group Sindiracoes said on Wednesday. The group representing feed companies now estimates that animal feed and supplement production in Brazil will reach 93.7 million tons this year, compared to a projection of 94 million released in May, shortly before the first case of bird flu was recorded on a commercial chicken farm in Southern Brazil. Sign up here. Brazil's poultry industry is the main consumer of locally processed feed. "Demand was mainly impacted by the pace of (chicken) exports, which were restricted due to embargoes following an avian influenza outbreak," Ariovaldo Zani, the head of Sindiracoes, said. Chicken exports from Brazil, the world's largest supplier, could fall by as much as 2% in 2025, to 5.2 million metric tons, reflecting trade restrictions triggered by the outbreak, which the government controlled in a month. Although most importers have already lifted bans, top buyer China has not yet resumed buying Brazilian poultry products. Total animal feed production is still expected to increase by 2.9% year-over-year, Sindiracoes said, noting a drop in demand from the poultry industry will be partially offset by the additional demand from the beef industry. Despite the effect of Brazil's bird flu outbreak, demand from the poultry industry reached 18.9 million tons of feed in the first half of 2025, with marginal growth from the same period a year ago, Sindiracoes said. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/brazil-animal-feed-output-drop-after-bird-flu-outbreak-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 21:10

ORLANDO, Florida, Sept 10 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets Sign up here. By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Surprisingly soft U.S. producer price inflation figures on Wednesday spurred outside bets on a half a percentage point cut in U.S. interest rates next week, pushing Wall Street to new highs, lifting gold, and pulling bond yields lower. In my column today I look at how the combination of Fed rate cuts and sticky inflation will reduce 'real' U.S. rates and yields, spelling bad news for the dollar. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Today's Talking Points: * Tech booming ... agAIn The extraordinary 43% surge in Oracle's share price thrusts the whole AI bubble debate back into the sharpest focus. This is not a penny stock, startup or meme stock, this is a long-established tech giant, which is now suddenly close to joining the exclusive $1 trillion market cap club. Oracle said on Tuesday it expects booked revenue at its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business to exceed half a trillion dollars. Shares traded at nearly 50x estimated 12-month forward earnings on Wednesday, the highest since the dotcom crash, when its forward PE topped 120. * Fed Makeup The composition - and independence - of the Federal Reserve in President Donald Trump's second term continues to dominate Fed watchers' thinking, with the focus right now centered on Governor Lisa Cook and board nominee Stephen Miran. A federal judge has temporarily blocked Trump from firing Cook while Miran, currently a White House economic adviser, has cleared a U.S. Senate hurdle. Meanwhile, Trump on Wednesday lambasted Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him "a total disaster, who doesn't have a clue" and insisting that the Fed slash interest rates. * Geopolitics Oil prices spiked on Wednesday after an Israeli attack in Qatar's capital Doha, and the Polish zloty had its worst day in over a month after Poland shot down suspected Russian drones in its airspace, the first time a member of NATO is known to have fired shots during Russia's war in Ukraine. The moves weren't too dramatic, but were a reminder to investors of the political risk in pockets around the world that can quickly spill over into asset prices and market volatility. 'Real' rate dip threatens to pull down dollar The dollar has been beaten down this year as investors have priced in a resumption of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle. But even if lower nominal rates are already reflected in the greenback's price, lower 'real' rates may not be. The greenback has gotten a bit of respite recently after recording its worst start to any calendar year since the era of free-floating exchange rates was introduced over 50 years ago. But it will face a renewed headwind if its real interest rate support evaporates, which currently seems likely. If the Fed pulls the rate cut trigger next week, as expected, it will be doing so with inflation around 3% - a percentage point above the central bank's 2% target. Further easing amid sticky prices means the gap between the U.S.'s inflation-adjusted or 'real' interest rate and those of its developed market peers should narrow – bad news for the dollar. 'REAL' PAIN The difference in inflation-adjusted or 'real' interest rates and yields is often thought to play the biggest role in determining the relative returns and purchasing power of currencies. Depending on what cut of annual inflation you use, the 'real' federal funds rate right now is somewhere in the 1.3-1.8% range. That's much higher than equivalent rates in the euro zone, Britain and most notably Japan, where the real policy rate is deeply negative. You can argue this hasn't prevented the dollar's eye-popping decline so far this year. But maybe that 'real' advantage at the short end helped avert an even steeper slide. What's going to happen if that support evaporates? It already has further out the curve. The dollar's 10% slide this year is thanks in no small part to the collapse in its positive real yield differentials in the five- and 10-year space, for example. These spreads are currently the narrowest since early 2022, but can shrink further. SIXTH TIME'S THE CHARM? Rates futures traders expect the Fed to cut rates by some 150 basis points by the end of next year, the most in the developed world but only really playing catch-up with most of these countries. On the other side of the 'real' rate equation is inflation, which remains sticky and above target across the developed world, but particularly in the United States – and that's before the tariff price shock truly hits. Economists at JP Morgan on Tuesday warned that, barring recession, 2026 will likely be the sixth year in a row expectations of inflation returning to target will not be met. They note that policymakers' inflation forecasting record since 2021 has been "less than exemplary," to put it charitably. They reckon central banks have, on average, underestimated core inflation over the period by about one percentage point and overshot their targets by 1.5 percentage points. The Bank of England has the worst record, but given the Fed's global prominence, its poor marks are what really stand out. The U.S. central bank's inflation forecasts have missed by an average of 1.3 percentage point over this period, and it has overshot its target by roughly 2 percentage points. Of course, maybe the sixth time will be the charm, and inflation will ease in line with Fed forecasts next year. The soft U.S. labor market appears quite a bit mushier following Tuesday's announcement of a record downward revision of payrolls growth. And if unemployment rises, consumer demand, economic activity, and price pressures will surely cool. But for now, inflation concerns still appear to be simmering. U.S. consumer inflation expectations are, by some measures, closer to 5% than the Fed's 2% goal, financial conditions are the loosest in years, and monetary and fiscal stimulus look to be coming down the pike. Put everything together, and you have the recipe for lower U.S. real rates and more dollar pain. What could move markets tomorrow? Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 21:01

JAKARTA, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Floods on Indonesia's holiday island of Bali have killed at least nine this week and affected 600 people, blocking off major roads in the capital and disrupting a busy travel destination, officials said on Wednesday. Continuous heavy rains between Tuesday evening and Wednesday caused the floods and killed five people in Bali's capital Denpasar, Abdul Muhari, the spokesperson of the country's disaster mitigation agency said in a statement. Sign up here. Four more people were killed in the regions of Jembrana, Gianyar, and Badung, Abdul added. Two people were still missing. Out of 600 people affected, nearly 200 have been evacuated to schools and mosques because their houses were still flooded, the agency said. The floods brought down two buildings in Denpasar, said I Nyoman Sidakarya, the head of the island's search and rescue agency. Access to the island's international airport near Denpasar was limited as only trucks could use the roads, he added. Videos on social media, which Reuters could not authenticate, showed floods on major roads leading to complete gridlock. About 200 rescuers have been dispatched, Nyoman said. Heavy rain also led to flooding in Indonesia's East Nusa Tenggara where four people have been killed, the disaster mitigation agency said. Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto expressed his condolences and instructed the head of national disaster agency to fly to Bali to lead the emergency response and ensure people's basic needs are met. The agency had distributed tents, food, blankets, mattresses, water pumps, and rubber boats. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/floods-indonesias-bali-kill-least-nine-officials-say-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 20:55

WASHINGTON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Democratic U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday urged President Donald Trump to cancel a plan to make surplus plutonium from Cold War-era atomic bombs available as a fuel for nuclear power operators, saying it is a proliferation risk. Trump signed executive orders in May that ordered the government to halt much of its existing program to dilute and dispose of surplus plutonium, and instead provide it as a fuel for advanced nuclear technologies. Sign up here. Last month Reuters reported the administration plans to make available about 20 metric tons of that plutonium from dismantled nuclear warheads as a potential fuel for reactors. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT Plutonium is a fissile material that could be used by militants to make nuclear weapons. The chances are low, but it is possible. The lawmakers say that the transfer of government-held plutonium to private industry would increase the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation around the world. If the U.S. uses plutonium from old weapons for reactors, the reasoning goes, it cannot effectively discourage other countries from doing the same with their own plutonium, supplies of which can also be built by re-processing waste from nuclear power plants. KEY QUOTE "Trump wants to take enough plutonium for 2,000 atomic bombs and hand it over to private industry just to make his rich buddies happy," said Senator Edward Markey, who signed the letter with two Democrats in the U.S. House. "He might as well sell nuclear weapons at Costco. If this material shows up in Iran, we know who's to blame." The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Trump's executive orders also called for a halt of the government's program to dispose of surplus plutonium by diluting it and burying it. Supporters of using radioactive plutonium in reactors say militants would likely harm themselves by handling it and that only nuclear workers can handle it safely. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-lawmakers-urge-trump-axe-plutonium-fuel-plan-over-proliferation-fears-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 20:50

TSX ends up 0.4% at 29,179.39 Eclipses Tuesday's record closing high Energy gains 1.9% as oil settles up 1.7% Materials group adds 1.9% TORONTO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index rose to another record high on Wednesday, as higher commodity prices boosted resource shares one day after the announcement of the second-largest M&A deal ever in the mining sector. The S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) , opens new tab ended up 116.38 points, or 0.4%, at 29,179.39, eclipsing Tuesday's record closing high. Sign up here. "It's nice to see this rotation with a lot more excitement around the commodity space," said Greg Taylor, chief investment officer at PenderFund Capital Management. "Commodities are definitely acting well." The price of U.S. oil settled 1.7% higher at $63.67 a barrel, boosting the energy sector (.SPTTEN) , opens new tab. It was up 1.9%, helped by a gain of 4.9% for Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) , opens new tab. Cenovus does not plan to raise its bid for oil sands producer MEG Energy (MEG.TO) , opens new tab despite a higher offer from Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO) , opens new tab, its CEO told Bloomberg News. The materials group (.GSPTTMT) , opens new tab, which includes metal mining shares, added 1.6% as copper prices climbed and the price of gold held near a record high. Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation supported expectations the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate cuts at a policy decision next week. The $53  billion planned merger between London-listed miner Anglo American (AAL.L) , opens new tab and Canada's Teck Resources (TECKb.TO) , opens new tab announced on Tuesday "The pain trade is higher because a lot of people are bearish or in cash, and the market going up is making it more painful for people," Taylor said. Heavily weighted financials added 0.4% but six of the 10 major sectors ended lower, including a decline of 0.6% for technology. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/tsx-extends-record-setting-run-resource-shares-climb-2025-09-10/