2025-09-09 19:33
Revision estimate comes days after weak August nonfarm payrolls Job growth was stalling before Trump's tariffs, estimate shows BLS revision estimate linked to birth-death model problems WASHINGTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, the government said on Tuesday, suggesting that job growth was already stalling before President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports. The preliminary annual benchmark revision estimate to the closely watched payrolls data from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics followed on the heels of news last Friday that job growth almost stalled in August and the economy shed jobs in June for the first time in four and a half years. Sign up here. The revision estimate is equivalent to 76,000 fewer jobs per month. It implied that nonfarm payroll gains averaged about 71,000 per month, instead of 147,000. Economists had expected the estimated revision to be between 400,000 and 1 million jobs. "This means labor market momentum is being lost from an even weaker position than originally thought," said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. In addition to being hobbled by uncertainty stemming from trade policy, the labor market has also been pressured by the White House's immigration crackdown, which has undercut labor supply. A shift by businesses to artificial intelligence tools and automation also is curbing demand for workers. Once a year, the BLS compares its nonfarm payrolls data, based on monthly surveys of a sample of employers, with a much more complete database of unemployment insurance tax records, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data. A final benchmark revision will be released in February along with the BLS' employment report for January. Government statisticians will use the final benchmark count to revise payroll data for the months prior to and after March. Economists have attributed the revisions to the "birth-and-death" model, a method the BLS uses to try to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month. These companies are not initially available for sampling. Though economists at Goldman Sachs agreed the labor market had softened materially, they cautioned the revision estimate was too excessive. They noted the QCEW was prone to upward revisions and might have difficulties accounting for unauthorized immigrants. "Our own model of net job gains from firm births and deaths, one of the key points of uncertainty in monthly payrolls growth that the benchmarking process corrects for, suggests a downward revision of around 550,000, or 45,000 per month, via that channel," they wrote in a note. "While the BLS' birth-death adjustment for nonfarm payrolls was probably too generous in second half of 2024, we estimate that the overstatement has since narrowed to around 10,000 jobs per month, cautioning against extrapolating too much from the benchmark revision." Last year, the preliminary estimate was for payrolls to be revised down by 818,000 jobs in the 12 months through March 2024. Payrolls were in the end only downgraded by 598,000. 'ACCURATE, INDEPENDENT AND TRUSTED' Leisure and hospitality employment was estimated to be revised down by 176,000 jobs over the 12 months through March. Trade, transportation, and utilities payrolls could be slashed by 226,000 positions, while professional and business services employment was projected to be reduced by 158,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment could be lowered by 95,000 jobs. Government employment was estimated to be cut by 31,000 positions. Modest upgrades were estimated for only the transportation and warehousing, and utilities industries. U.S. financial markets were little moved by the report. Economists continued to expect the Federal Reserve would resume cutting interest rates next Wednesday, with a quarter-point reduction, after pausing its easing cycle in January because of uncertainty over the impact of tariffs. With the consumer price data on Thursday expected to show inflation pressures building in August, the estimated revisions could fan fears of stagflation. The monthly employment report is based on data derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, which surveys about 121,000 businesses and government agencies, representing about 631,000 individual worksites. The QCEW data is derived from reports by employers to the state unemployment insurance programs, and represents about 95% of total employment. Sharp downgrades last month to May and June employment figures totaling 258,000 jobs angered Trump, who fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her, without evidence, of faking the employment data. Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni to replace McEntarfer. Antoni, who has penned opinion pieces critical of the BLS and even suggested suspending the monthly employment report, is viewed as unqualified by economists across the political spectrum. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters the revision estimate vindicated Trump. "And this makes it very clear that President Trump inherited a much worse economy," Leavitt said. "And it also proves that the Federal Reserve is holding our monetary policy far too restrictive." The BLS, like other statistical agencies, has suffered from years of inadequate funding under both Democratic and Republican administrations. The National Association for Business Economics on Monday urged "policymakers, business leaders, and the economics community to stand with BLS and ensure that America's statistics remain accurate, independent, and trusted worldwide." "Any political retaliation due to today's release will harm the ability for BLS to provide timely and unbiased statistics," said Elise Gould, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-payrolls-benchmark-revision-estimate-suggests-labor-market-weaker-than-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 19:01
NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason said at a conference in New York that investment banking fees and market revenue are expected to rise by mid-single digits in the third quarter compared to a year earlier. Mason also said the global revenue and expenses for the year may be higher than the guidance of $84 billion and $54.3 billion, respectively. But Mason added the proportion between expenses and revenue did not change, so the impact of the higher numbers would be neutral to positive to earnings. Sign up here. In July, the bank beat estimates for second quarter earnings, fueled by rising revenue in banking, markets and wealth management. At the time, the results drove shares to their highest since 2008, and the bank said it planned to buy back at least $4 billion in stock. On Tuesday, Mason said the bank was on track to keep buying stock at the same rate. Citi's CFO added the bank is 'pleased' with the stance bank regulators are adopting regarding capital, adding transparency. Mason said there is a more 'holistic' approach and willingness to consider changes to the capital models. The second quarter showed CEO Jane Fraser's turnaround is gaining momentum after she sold businesses and simplified the bank's structure. Citigroup expects to be ready to list its Mexican subsidiary Banamex by the end of the year, Mason said, but added that market conditions and regulatory approvals may delay the transaction until early 2026. The Citi CFO said the bank is not seeing any signs of deterioration of credit quality. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/citigroup-cfo-expects-investment-banking-fees-market-revenue-grow-by-mid-single-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 17:22
SAO PAULO, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Tuesday that environmental agency Ibama should be satisfied with the results of an emergency drill done by state-run oil firm Petrobras in the country's Foz do Amazonas basin, ahead of Ibama's official assessment. "Petrobras has already carried out the test. Ibama should be satisfied with the results of the research, and Ibama will now grant us the license to carry out the first experiment," Lula said in an interview with local news channel Rede Amazonica. Sign up here. Despite Lula's claims, Ibama's technical staff has yet to finish a report on the test and whether it was a success, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The report needs to be completed before the head of Ibama Rodrigo Agostinho makes a final decision to grant or deny the license. Ibama's staff has in the past recommended the body to deny the license, but was overruled by Agostinho, who gave the go-ahead for the emergency drill. Ibama and Petrobras did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Petroleo Brasileiro SA, as the company is formally known, considers the drill, a pre-operational assessment, the final stage of an environmental licensing process it hopes will ensure it obtains a permit to drill an exploratory oil and gas well in the region. Lula has long pressured Ibama to grant Petrobras a license to drill in the environmentally sensitive offshore region, which is considered the best prospect for it to expand its oil and gas reserves. The oil industry believes there is significant potential for discovering large oil and gas reserves in the Foz do Amazonas basin, based on major discoveries in geologically similar regions in Suriname and Guyana. However, there is resistance from segments of society and within the government itself, due to the socio-environmental risks tied to exploration. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/brazils-environmental-agency-should-be-satisfied-with-petrobras-test-key-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 16:10
Sept 9 (Reuters) - Gold hit a record high above $3,600 an ounce on Tuesday, spurred by expectations of U.S. rate cuts, concerns about Federal Reserve independence and robust demand from investors and central banks. Having hit a record high at $3,673.95 a troy ounce, spot gold was trading around $3,637.39 by 1524 GMT for a gain of more than 38% so far this year. Sign up here. Analysts expect gold to trade in a $3,600-$3,900 range in the near to medium term and see potential for it to test $4,000 next year if economic and geopolitical uncertainties persist. A Reuters survey published in July showed analysts expected gold prices to average $3,220 this year compared with $3,065 in the April survey and $2,756 an ounce in the January survey. "Supportive for gold is the bearish dollar outlook underpinned by expectations of Fed cuts, investors distancing from U.S. assets and tariff-related economic uncertainty," said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades. The dollar has fallen nearly 11% since President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January. Expectations of further U.S. rate cuts will further undermine the U.S. currency, which when it falls makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. Traders see a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September when the Fed meets, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool , opens new tab. Meanwhile, Trump's criticism of Powell and attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook have heightened concerns over the Fed's independence and sparked further gold purchases. "The most bullish wildcard is ... potential interference with the U.S. Federal Reserve and concerns about the dollar's status as a safe-haven," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke. Among other factors fortifying gold's appeal are security concerns emanating from the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. Central bank gold purchases such as those by China have also provided impetus to gold prices. According to the World Gold Council, central banks plan to raise the gold portion of their reserves while reducing dollar reserves over the next five years. Physically-backed gold exchange traded funds have also seen significant inflows. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest physical gold ETF, rose to 990.56 tons on September 2 for an over 12% increase so far this year and its highest since August 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rallies-new-record-us-rate-cut-hopes-fed-tension-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 16:07
Sept 9 (Reuters) - A federal judge approved Vanguard Group's $25 million settlement of a lawsuit accusing the U.S. mutual fund company of improperly saddling investors in its target-date funds with inflated tax bills. U.S. District Judge John Murphy in Philadelphia granted preliminary approval on Monday, calling the settlement sufficiently fair, reasonable, and adequate, after rejecting a $40 million settlement on May 19. Sign up here. Murphy objected because Vanguard could have offset the $40 million from its related January settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and investors would be better off with the SEC accord because there were no legal fees. Lawyers for the investors said the $25 million is in addition to a $133 million fair fund set up in the SEC case. Target-date funds contain mixes of stocks, bonds, and cash that are designed to become less risky as investors get older, and to be tax-efficient. Vanguard was sued after deciding in December 2020 to reduce the minimum investment in lower-cost fund classes meant for institutional clients to $5 million from $100 million. Many investors moved to those fund classes from higher-cost retail classes. This forced retail funds to sell assets to meet redemptions and pass taxable capital gains to the plaintiffs and other remaining investors. Vanguard denied wrongdoing in agreeing to settle. The Valley Forge, Pennsylvania-based firm had $11 trillion of assets under management as of July 31. Murphy scheduled a January 6, 2026, hearing to consider final settlement approval. The case is In re Vanguard Chester Funds Litigation, U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Pennsylvania, No. 22-00955. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/judge-approves-vanguards-revised-settlement-over-mutual-fund-tax-bills-2025-09-09/
2025-09-09 15:23
Sept 9 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely resume cutting short-term rates next week and continue on for the rest of the year to shore up a labor market that may have begun cooling well before President Donald Trump began imposing sharply higher tariffs, traders bet on Tuesday. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary annual revision to its payrolls data showed the U.S. economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, suggesting average monthly payrolls gains were likely less than half of the 147,000 that had been reported. Sign up here. Coupled with recent labor market data that shows monthly employment gains have slowed even further, the report "gives the Fed another reason to lower rates next week," BMO economist Sal Guatieri wrote, and likely cements the case for more rate cuts by year-end than the two that Fed policymakers had projected back in June. After the data, traders stuck to their overwhelming bets that the Fed will reduce the policy rate from its current 4.25%-4.50% by a quarter of a percentage point at the central bank's September 16-17 meeting, and for a same-sized reduction at the Fed's following meeting in October. While traders continue to see a third rate cut in December as far more likely than a pause, they pared their bets slightly on that meeting and further for 2026, slicing the probability of a fourth rate cut by January to less than 40% from nearly 50-50 before the revised data was released. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month that rising downside risks to the job market may warrant some cautious policy easing, but central bankers remain wary of easing too much while inflation remains above their 2% goal and upside risks from Trump's tariff policy remain. The Fed gets a pair of inflation reports later this week expected to reflect ongoing upward price pressures. https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-seen-track-three-rate-cuts-this-year-starting-next-week-2025-09-09/
