2025-08-08 19:37
More Fed officials express concern about labor market Fresh data underscores job market risks cited by Fed dissenters Heavy data docket looms ahead of September 16-17 Fed meeting Aug 8 (Reuters) - Since the Federal Reserve's decision last month to hold interest rates steady, a shift appears underway at the U.S. central bank, with several Fed officials sounding increasingly uneasy about the labor market and signaling their openness to, if not impatience for, a rate cut as soon as September. Their evolving stance may please President Donald Trump, who has pushed aggressively for lower interest rates all year. The reasons for it, including new data indicating a weakening labor market that Trump has claimed is "rigged," may not. Sign up here. Labor market worries were at the heart of arguments put forward by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman when they dissented from the Fed's July 30 decision to leave short-term borrowing costs in the 4.25%-4.50% range, where they have been since December. The 9-2 majority signed off on a statement that characterized labor market conditions as solid. Days later, they looked far less so. "Concerning" was how Fed Governor Lisa Cook earlier this week described revisions to the government estimates that slashed job gains in May and June to what economists see as recession levels. The same report also showed employers added far fewer jobs than expected in July, and a tick up in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. "The employment number did say that the risk on the employment side is much higher than it had been...I will definitely be looking carefully," said Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. Bostic said he continues to believe just one rate cut will be appropriate for 2025, and at least one other hawkish Fed policymaker felt the new data did not change the overall picture much. But even as central bankers appear short of consensus for the need to ease policy, subtle shifts suggest policymakers are tilting more dovish than before. "There are risks on both sides of our mandate, and when that happens, when you have risks on both sides, you have to take a balanced approach," St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said Friday. That's a shift from his earlier expressions of deeper concern about not meeting the Fed's inflation mandate than on missing its full employment goal. "I'm comfortable with the decision we made in July, but I am increasingly less comfortable with making that decision again and again," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said earlier this week. There's still plenty of data to digest before the Fed's next policy-setting meeting September 16-17, including a read on consumer prices next week that will help shape policymakers' assessments of whether the Trump administration's new higher tariffs will mean persistently higher inflation, as hawks fear, or just a temporary bump, as doves have argued. Financial markets reflect heavy bets that the policy rate will be at least half of a percentage point lower by year-end. https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-tilt-dovish-us-job-market-softens-2025-08-08/
2025-08-08 19:13
US gold futures hit an all-time high of $3,534.10 Some gold players stop flying bars to US Switzerland says tariff talks with US continue Palladium down over 2% Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures pared gains on Friday, retreating from record high levels, after reports that the White House plans to issue an executive order clarifying the country's stance on gold bar tariffs. The statement from White House official on the upcoming executive order follows a ruling posted by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection service's website, indicating that Washington may place the most widely traded gold bullion bars in the United States under country-specific import tariffs. Sign up here. December U.S. gold futures were steady at $3454.1 per ounce as of 1852 GMT, after hitting a record $3,534.10 earlier in the session. "Gold's panic ascent shows that even safe haven assets are not immune to the volatility unleashed in the confusion of the tariff age," Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown. The spread between U.S. gold futures and spot prices widened, and currently sits at $57, down from over $100 earlier in the session. Spot gold steadied at $3,396.8 per ounce as of 2:52 p.m. ET (1852 GMT), but was up 1% for the week. UBS noted that if the tariff sticks, it expects the premium between Comex futures and London ones to rise further, as will arbitrage opportunities between alternative refinery hubs. Analysts broadly noted that they are awaiting further clarity on the issue, adding that a U.S. tariff on gold deliveries could significantly affect Switzerland, given its status as the world's leading hub for gold refining and transit. Swiss goods are subject to U.S. import tariffs of 39%, and the country is continuing discussions with the United States about reducing the levies. Some gold refineries, including a large Swiss entity, have paused deliveries of bullion to the United States due to uncertainty, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Elsewhere, spot silver was steady at $38.29, platinum fell 0.5% to $1,327.85, and palladium was down 2.2% at $1,125.48. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-gold-futures-pare-gains-after-official-says-white-house-clarify-tariff-policy-2025-08-08/
2025-08-08 19:11
Dollar gains, but on track for weekly loss Trump's Fed appointments seen dovish Traders pricing in two US rate cuts this year NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - The dollar firmed on Friday but was heading for a weekly fall as weakening economic data leads traders to price in the probability of more interest rate cuts this year, and as investors evaluate U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominations to the Federal Reserve. The dollar has dropped since last week’s jobs report for July showed employers added fewer jobs than expected during the month, while job gains from previous months were also revised down sharply. Sign up here. Other data including a weakening housing market and services sector data are also pointing to a slowing economy. Trump on Thursday, meanwhile, said he will nominate Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the final few months of a newly vacant Fed seat, while the White House seeks a permanent addition to the central bank's governing board and continues its search for a new Fed chair. Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who voted for a rate cut in the Fed's last meeting, is emerging as a top candidate to be the central bank's next chair when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May. “It loads the FOMC with people who presumably are a little bit more favorable to lower interest rates,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. “The impression is that the Fed is veering towards cutting interest rates probably a little bit quicker than markets had expected, certainly prior to last week. And maybe even speculation that the Fed could cut rates a bit more aggressively than we'd been expecting.” LARGER IMPACT Traders now see a 89% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, and are pricing in 58 basis points in cuts by year-end. Trump also last Friday fired a top Labor Department official on the heels of the weak jobs report, raising concerns that the Trump administration may have a larger influence over economic releases. The dollar index nonetheless gained on Friday, which Osborne said was likely consolidation, with no fresh news to drive direction. It was last up 0.21% on the day at 98.19 but on track for a weekly loss of around 0.5%. The euro fell 0.09% to $1.1655. FX and rates analysts at Bank of America noted that short U.S. dollar remains the highest conviction trade for the rest of this year among fund managers it surveyed. "This could reflect survey respondents' expectation of fading U.S. exceptionalism and simmering concerns on Fed independence and U.S. fiscal policy," the analysts said. They added, however, that "rising concerns around global growth could test the short USD thesis." The next major U.S. economic release will be consumer price data for July due on Tuesday, which will be watched to see whether tariffs are reigniting inflation pressures. The Fed now faces risks to both its inflation and jobs goals, with policymakers needing to balance which seems the more serious threat in deciding whether it is appropriate to reduce interest rates, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday. Traders are also watching developments in a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. and Russia are aiming to reach a deal to halt the war in Ukraine that would lock in Moscow's occupation of territory seized during its military invasion, Bloomberg News reported on Friday. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.41% to 147.71. Bank of Japan policymakers debated the likelihood of resuming interest rate increases, with one signalling the chance of a hike this year, a summary of opinions at the July meeting showed, heightening the chance of a near-term rise in borrowing costs. Sterling rose 0.06% to $1.3451 and earlier reached a two-week high of $1.3458. The Bank of England cut interest rates on Thursday, but only after a narrow 5-4 vote, showing a lack of conviction in its easing bias. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.70% to $116,429. Trump signed an executive order on Thursday that aimed to allow more private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k) retirement accounts – opening the way for alternative asset managers to tap a greater share of trillions of dollars in Americans' retirement savings. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-heads-weekly-loss-dovish-fed-expectations-2025-08-08/
2025-08-08 19:01
Aug 8 (Reuters) - Consumer prices in Chile rose more than expected in July, data from statistics agency INE showed on Friday, triggering questions about the likelihood of the central bank delivering fresh interest rate cuts in the very near term. Prices in the world's largest copper producer were up 0.9% last month, INE said in a report. Economists polled by Reuters had expected an increase of 0.6%. Sign up here. The annual inflation rate hit 4.3%, the agency added, up from 4.1% in the previous month and the central bank's target range of 2% to 4%. Policymakers at the bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% last week, but said future moves would depend on the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario and its implications for inflation's convergence to its target. Chile's central bank lowered borrowing costs by a total 625 basis points between July 2023 and December 2024, but had since kept them unchanged as it urged caution given price pressures. The latest inflation figures, Barclays economists said in a note to clients, reflect "consistently stronger" economic activity and should limit the central bank's willingness to lower borrowing costs again this year. Scotiabank economists, meanwhile, said that "monetary policy has no room for cuts" in the face of consecutive surprises in core inflation and an acceleration in non-mining gross domestic product. The monthly consumer price rise in July, according to INE, was driven mainly by higher costs of housing amid higher electricity prices. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages also rose. The only group of the 13 surveyed that posted a price decrease was insurance and financial services, the agency noted. The higher-than-expected figure followed a drop of 0.4% drop in June, which at the time undershot market forecasts. Despite the surprise on the upside, some market watchers still believe a fresh interest rate cut is in play at the central bank's next meeting on September 9. "This single report is not enough to change our forecast for a new 25-basis-point policy rate cut in September," JPMorgan said. "Although it does make such a move contingent on the August consumer price index report." https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chile-inflation-overshoots-forecasts-raising-doubts-about-rate-cut-path-2025-08-08/
2025-08-08 18:41
Aug 8 (Reuters) - Imports into the United States fell more than expected in June as concerns around shifting tariff policies hit retailers, raising fears of fewer product options in stores for shoppers, data from the National Retail Federation showed on Friday. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT The data comes as several of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs went into effect this week. As of August 7, duties range from 10% to 50%, with India, Brazil, and Switzerland facing some of the highest rates. Sign up here. Since April's "Liberation Day" announcement of a 10% baseline tariff, Trump has adjusted rates frequently. A temporary truce with China in May reduced tariffs to 30%, but new hikes resumed in July. BY THE NUMBERS U.S. ports covered by NRF's report handled 1.96 million 20-foot containers or its equivalent in June, which was down 8.4% year-over-year, but up 0.7% from May. That was a bigger drop from the NRF forecast from a month ago , opens new tab. The trade body had then projected ports would handle 2.06 million TEU in June, up 5.9% from May but down 3.7% year over year. Moreover, import cargo volume at major container ports in the U.S. is tentatively expected to end 2025 5.6% below 2024's volume, NRF's forecast showed , opens new tab on Friday. CONTEXT Apparel retailers, including Under Armour (UAA.N) , opens new tab, Deckers Outdoor (DECK.N) , opens new tab have reported tariff impacts in the past couple of months and are taking steps to diversify their supply chain to avoid tariffs on goods routed through or sourced from Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam. KEY QUOTE "The uncertainty around tariffs has impacted retailers' ability to forecast holiday orders and shipments. As tariff rates increase, consumers will ultimately face higher prices and less choice and availability during the holiday season," NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. "We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them." Tariffs will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy, he added. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/us-imports-fall-more-than-expected-june-tariff-concerns-trade-body-data-shows-2025-08-08/
2025-08-08 18:24
NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said it ended its case accusing Ripple Labs of selling unregistered securities, leaving a $125 million fine intact and ending one of the cryptocurrency industry's highest-profile lawsuits. Ripple and the SEC agreed on Thursday to dismiss their appeals of the fine imposed by U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres in Manhattan and her injunction against the sale of Ripple's XRP token to institutional investors. Sign up here. XRP is the third-largest cryptocurrency by market value, trailing bitcoin and Ethereum, according to the market service CoinMarketCap. The SEC sued Ripple in December 2020, near the end of U.S. President Donald Trump's first White House term, accusing it of selling XRP tokens without registering them as securities. In a mixed ruling in July 2023, Torres said XRP was covered by securities laws when sold to institutional investors, while XRP that Ripple sold on public exchanges was not. She imposed the fine in August 2024. Following Trump's reelection, a more crypto-friendly SEC began retreating from some enforcement cases, and together with Ripple asked Torres to lift the injunction and reduce the fine to $50 million. She refused, saying neither side came close to showing "exceptional circumstances" that outweighed the public interest in enforcing the injunction and $125 million fine. The SEC said the dismissal of the appeals means the injunction and fine remain in effect. Stuart Alderoty, Ripple's chief legal officer, in a post on X referred to the SEC's actions and said the dismissals mark "the end" of the case. Since Trump reentered the White House, the SEC has also ended civil lawsuits against crypto exchanges Binance, Coinbase (COIN.O) , opens new tab and Kraken. The case is SEC v Ripple Labs Inc, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 20-10832. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/sec-ends-lawsuit-against-ripple-company-pay-125-million-fine-2025-08-08/
