2025-08-08 10:44

IOC, BPCL snap up spot crude after halting Russian oil buys IOC buys 5 million bbls crude for October arrival in latest tender, sources say BPCL buys 9 million bbls crude for September delivery, source says NEW DELHI/SINGAPORE, Aug 8 (Reuters) - India's biggest state refiners Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum have bought at least 22 million barrels of non-Russian crude for delivery in September and October, trade sources said, after the U.S. pressured India to halt purchases from Russia. Indian state refiners had been largely absent from the spot market since 2022, instead becoming one of the few purchasers of cheaper Russian crude after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They paused Russian purchases in late July after pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. Sign up here. "As President Trump is applying pressure on the country of India, not individual entities, no doubt... there will be discussion between the government and those refiners continuing to import," said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group. In its latest tender, IOC (IOC.NS) , opens new tab bought 2 million barrels of U.S. Mars crude, 2 million barrels of Brazilian grades, and another 1 million barrels of Libyan crude on a delivered basis, the sources said. BP (BP.L) , opens new tab sold the high-sulphur Mars crude cargo at $1.5-$2 a barrel above September Dubai quotes, they added. European trader Petraco sold the 1 million barrels of Libyan Sarir and Mesla crude and Totsa, the trading arm of TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab, sold the 2 million barrels of Brazilian Sepia and Sururu crude, the sources said. The prices for these cargoes were not immediately available. Those deals follow IOC's purchase of 8 million barrels of September delivery crude from the Middle East, U.S., Canada and Nigeria via tenders in the past week. India's second biggest state refiner BPCL (BPCL.NS) , opens new tab bought 9 million barrels of oil through negotiations for September arrival, a source familiar with the purchases said. That included 1 million barrels of Angola Girassol, 1 million barrels of U.S. Mars, 3 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban and 2 million barrels of Nigerian oil, he said. Companies typically do not comment on crude deals, citing confidentiality. The combined spot purchases by the two state refiners for September and October are equivalent to about 6% of India's crude processing in May, Reuters calculations showed. The arbitrage economics of sending Atlantic Basin grades to Asia have also improved for Asian refiners, supporting these purchases, the sources said. https://www.reuters.com/markets/emerging/indian-state-refiners-step-up-non-russian-oil-purchases-under-trump-pressure-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 10:43

BEIJING, Aug 8 (Reuters) - President Xi Jinping on Friday ordered "all-out" rescue efforts in China's arid and mountainous northwest after flash floods caused by exceptionally heavy rain killed 10 people and left 33 missing. Torrential downpours began around 6 p.m. on Thursday and unleashed flash floods in Gansu province's Yuzhong, stranding some 4,000 people, state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) reported. Sign up here. In one mountainous area, precipitation had reached up to 195mm (7.7 inches) since early Thursday evening. Yuzhong county normally sees 300-400mm of rainfall for the entire year. Yuzhong is situated among gullies and hills of wind-blown silt on one of the world's biggest loess plateaus. That makes it vulnerable to flash floods and landslides given the loose structure of the soil, which becomes unstable when saturated with water. Ankle-high muddy water could be seen coursing down a hilly road flanked by uprooted trees in a video posted by CCTV. "The top priority must be to make every possible effort to search for and rescue missing people, relocate and resettle people under threat, minimise casualties, and restore communications and transportation as quickly as possible," CCTV quoted Xi as saying. He warned local governments not to succumb to "complacency and carelessness" in light of recent occurrences of extreme weather, CCTV said. Record rainfall has lashed China's north and south in recent weeks in what meteorologists describe as extreme weather events linked to climate change. Heavy rains and flooding have killed at least 60 people across northern China including Beijing since late July. The National Development and Reform Commission said on Friday it has allocated 100 million yuan ($13.92 million) to support rescue efforts in Gansu following the disaster. China has announced at least 6 billion yuan of funding for disaster relief since April. ($1 = 7.1837 Chinese yuan renminbi) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/xi-orders-all-out-rescue-floods-kill-10-northwest-china-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 10:41

LONDON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. The S&P 500 may have stalled on Thursday, but the Nasdaq hit a new high, as a week of positive earnings surprises and rising Fed easing expectations overshadowed tariff worries and a few isolated stock flubs. Tech excitement continues to push up all major index futures ahead of Friday's bell. * The stock stumbles on Thursday included an outsize 14% earnings-day hit to pharma giant Eli Lilly after a disappointing drug trial and a 3% drop in Intel after Trump demanded the resignation of its CEO due to Chinese links. * Longer-term Fed easing expectations were buoyed after Trump said he will nominate Council of Economic Advisors Chairperson Stephen Miran to temporarily fill Adriana Kugler's vacant board seat and dovish Fed Governor Chris Waller was reported to be his top pick for the Chair next year. JPMorgan now expects a rate cut next month, and the futures market is pricing in rates as low as 3% by the end of next year, about 20 basis points lower than expected a month ago. * U.S. Treasury yields flatlined and the dollar nudged higher, as Thursday's long-bond auction continued a week of lukewarm debt sales and weekly jobless claims data showed few signs of the softness flagged in last week's payrolls report. Sterling was firmer after the Bank of England only narrowly voted to cut rates on Thursday, and the peso was steady after Mexico's central bank eased again too. * U.S. gold futures climbed to a record high on Friday after a Financial Times report said the United States had imposed tariffs on imports of one kilo and 100 ounce gold bars, a move that could impact Switzerland, the world's largest gold refining hub. Crude oil prices fell to two-month lows as the expected talks between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the prospect of easing sanctions on Russia. Today's Market Minute: * U.S. President Donald Trump has wielded the threat of tariffs as an all-purpose foreign policy weapon. With a Friday deadline for Russia to agree to peace in Ukraine or have its oil customers face secondary tariffs, Trump has found a novel, but risky, use for his favorite trade tool. * OpenAI launched on Thursday its GPT-5 artificial intelligence model, the highly anticipated latest installment of a technology that has helped transform global business and culture. * Israel's political-security cabinet approved a plan early on Friday to take control of Gaza City, as the country expands its military operations despite intensifying criticism at home and abroad over the devastating almost two-year-old war. * Britain's ambition to rev up its economy and tap the AI revolution faces the harsh reality that the abundant, clean and reliable electricity supply this requires is unlikely to materialise any time soon. Read the latest from ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso. * U.S. President Donald Trump has the so-called 'BRIC' group of nations directly in his trade war crosshairs, slapping super-high tariffs on imports from Brazil and India. But this belligerence could backfire writes ROI columnist Jamie McGeever. Chart of the day: The New York Fed's latest survey of household inflation expectations saw the long-term price rise outlook creeping back up to the highest since March, with views over one, three and five years now converging toward 3% - a point above the Fed's 2% inflation target. However, the history of the survey shows consumer views frequently gravitate to these levels over the past decade even before the post-pandemic inflation surge and during periods when actual inflation was much lower. Weekend reads: TRUMP WINNING?: Just over six months into his second term in the White House and amid huge economic policy disruption, Trump looks to be getting what he wants , opens new tab without bowling over the economy, writes former International Monetary Fund chief economist Kenneth Rogoff in a review. How successful those wins prove over the longer run remains far less clear, he argues on Project Syndicate. DATA MANIPULATION COSTS?: Trump's firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief has raised questions about politically-biased government economic data going forward. Council on Foreign Relations fellow Benn Steil gives a glimpse of what studies show about the cost of data manipulation , opens new tab elsewhere in the world. CHINA TRADE AND EU JOBS: Following a recent European Central Bank blog on the impact of rising Chinese imports on European inflation, the ECB's latest bulletin contains a piece on how rising Chinese import competition , opens new tab - partly due to trade diversion from tariffed U.S. markets - might affect European labor markets. While auto and chemical sectors are already affected, it reckons the broader implications might extend to nearly one-third of euro area employment. OFFSETTING 'CHINA SHOCK': America's hit from Chinese competition has only really been felt in Germany since 2020, argues Technical University of Munich Professor Dalia Marin in a VoxEU column. To avoid America's painful de-industrialisation of the 2000s, she says, Chinese market entry in Europe should be made conditional on forming joint ventures with European firms , opens new tab in order to retain global competitiveness. MUSK VS MODI?: Elon Musk's court case against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government in the Karnataka High Court targets the entire basis for tightened internet censorship in India, one of the biggest user bases of Musk's X platform. As regulators globally weigh free-speech protections against concern about harmful content, Reuters Munsif Vengattil, Arpan Chaturvedi and Aditya Kalra give a detailed account of this pivotal battle between the world's richest person and authorities of the world's most populous country. Today's events to watch * Canada July employment report (8:30 AM EDT) * St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem speaks; Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 10:29

First round of Bolivia's presidential election scheduled for August 17 International bonds rally on post-election policy shift hopes Debt repayments loom with reserves at record lows Prospects for IMF program seen as relief; painful reforms needed Aug 8 (Reuters) - Bolivia's international bonds have rallied ahead of a fiercely contested presidential election, fueled by investors' hopes that a political U-turn could help shore up the country's fragile economy and pave the way for an IMF program. The South American nation of 12 million people is engulfed in a crisis marked by inflation at a four-decade high, dwindling dollar reserves and a fiscal squeeze in which the government must choose to service debt or pay for fuel and food imports. Sign up here. Bolivia's international bonds, however, have enjoyed a stellar rally since the start of 2025. With a return of more than 30%, they are one of the top performers in JPMorgan's emerging markets bond index, which across the asset class has returned slightly more than 7%. Citigroup recently upgraded its assessment on Bolivian bonds to "neutral" from "underweight." Having started the year below 60 cents, Bolivian government bonds have scaled multi-year highs in recent days and are trading in the mid-70 cent range - well above the 70 cent threshold below which debt is seen as being in distress. (.JPMEGD) , opens new tab, , A change in government "is likely to be quite positive for the economy, which has been on an unsustainable fiscal and current account position for so many years," said Carlos de Sousa, emerging markets debt strategist at Vontobel Asset Management. "A restructuring could be avoided, particularly if the country gets an IMF program soon after," de Sousa said, adding that turning to the International Monetary Fund for support would be a political choice while Bolivia's overall debt metrics were "sufficiently bad" to justify a debt reworking. Bolivia's political landscape is dominated by a power struggle that has fractured the incumbent left-leaning Movement to Socialism (MAS) party. Polls show it winning about 12% of the vote in the first round of the election on August 17. Evo Morales, who ruled the country from 2006 to 2019 under the MAS banner, has been barred from running for another term as president. Betting websites peg the chances of a win for center-right businessman Samuel Doria Medina, the National Unity party's presidential candidate, at more than 50%. Favored by markets, he has pledged to restore central bank autonomy, tackle a dollar shortage and take on corruption. To avoid a runoff, which has been scheduled for October 19, a candidate must secure more than 40% of the vote as well as have a lead of at least 10 percentage points. IMF LOAN PROGRAM The election is taking place at a critical time for Bolivia's $50 billion economy. Central bank-financed fiscal deficits have become a major flash point, revenues from gas exports - a big source of hard currency for the government - have dwindled and the central bank has been forced to spend precious reserves defending the boliviano currency's peg to the dollar. The gap between parallel and official exchange rates has blown out to 80%, the IMF says. Despite the recent spurt of optimism, investors remain worried that political infighting and falling gas export revenues could jeopardize the country's ability to service upcoming debt payments - large chunks of which are due in the first quarters of the next three years. Bolivia's external debt amounted to about $13.3 billion by the end of 2024, of which $1.8 billion is in hard-currency bonds and the remainder in multilateral and bilateral loans, according to its central bank. Foreign exchange reserves were at a record low of about $165 million in April, central bank data shows. JPMorgan calculates that the country's liquid reserves are only $100 million. The IMF puts reserves at two months worth of imports - well below the minimum threshold of the equivalent of three months. Earlier this year, the three major credit rating agencies downgraded Bolivia's rating deeper into junk. S&P Global said the economic circumstances could impair the government's ability to service debt over the next six to 12 months. Some relief may come from loans worth more than $1 billion from official lenders like the World Bank and the Japan International Cooperation Agency that have been secured but not drawn down amid government infighting, and which analysts expect could be unlocked by a new government in La Paz. Monetizing Bolivia's vast lithium deposits could also bring in financing. But the real silver lining - at least for investors - would be an IMF loan program. It would, however, require painful reforms. The IMF said in May , opens new tab that the Bolivian government should ditch the dollar peg, lift capital controls and phase out fuel subsidies, among a raft of other policy changes. It estimates Bolivia's economy will grow 1.1% in 2025 and 0.9% next year - less than half the 2.2% growth expected across broader Latin America this year and the 2.4% forecast for the region in 2026. With a balance of payments crunch looming, analysts say, the next government might not have much choice. "All these liberalizing reforms will eventually allow the economy to flourish, but there's going to be some short-term pain as you shut down money-losing businesses, cut fuel subsidies, and unshackle the economy," said Ajata Mediratta, partner at Greylock Capital Management. "Very few countries can do that in an election year." https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/investors-betting-voters-bolivia-will-make-turn-right-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 10:01

PRETORIA, Aug 8 (Reuters) - South Africa's central bank believes U.S. tariffs will only have a modest impact on the country's economic growth while leaving its inflation levels broadly unchanged, its governor said on Friday. U.S. imports from South Africa are now subject to a 30% duty - the highest rate in Sub-Saharan Africa - after Pretoria failed to agree a trade deal with Washington in time for U.S. President Donald Trump's deadline. Sign up here. President Cyril Ramaphosa spoke to Trump on Wednesday to try to speed up trade talks, after industry associations and the central bank governor previously warned the tariffs could cause tens of thousands of job losses. But at the central bank's Annual General Meeting on Friday, Governor Lesetja Kganyago downplayed the economic fallout. "Our preliminary assessment is that tariffs and the other uncertainties in the global economy are causing modest damage to growth while leaving inflation broadly unchanged," he told the bank's shareholders. "The U.S. is a large trading partner for South Africa, but it is not as important as Europe, China or the Southern African Development Community," Kganyago added. The U.S. accounted for roughly 7% of South African exports in June, smaller than China's 12% and Germany's 8%, data from the South African Revenue Service showed. The central bank's latest forecasts factored in a higher tariff rate but that only moved its growth forecast for this year down by around 0.1 percentage points. "This is a setback, but not catastrophic," Kganyago said, explaining that the relatively low growth of about 1% expected in 2025 was part of a broader stagnation trend in place for roughly a decade. Echoing Kganyago's assessment, South African financial markets have performed well this week even as the tariffs came into effect. ETM Analytics said in a research note that investors were confident that South African businesses would be able to find ways to mitigate the impact of the tariffs and pivot to new markets. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africas-central-bank-sees-only-modest-impact-us-tariffs-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 09:50

TOKYO, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Japan's biggest oil and gas explorer Inpex (1605.T) , opens new tab on Friday raised its annual net profit forecast by 23%, citing strong production at its key Ichthys liquefied natural gas project in Australia, higher oil price assumptions and a weaker yen. The company now expects a net profit of 370 billion yen ($2.5 billion) for 2025, up from its May projection of 300 billion yen and above analysts' estimate of 324 billion yen in an LSEG poll. Sign up here. "The revision reflected steady production at the Ichthys project," Daisuke Yamada, senior managing executive officer, told a news conference, adding stronger oil prices and the yen's depreciation also contributed. Inpex expects Ichthys to ship 116 LNG cargoes this year, matching last year's volume, despite a planned one-and-a-half-month maintenance in the second half, Yamada said. The company revised its Brent oil price assumption to $69 per barrel from $65, while adjusting its yen assumption to 147 yen per U.S. dollar from 144 yen. With the improved outlook, Inpex raised its annual dividend forecast to 100 yen per share, up from the previous estimate of 90 yen and last year's actual dividend of 86 yen. The company also announced a share buyback of up to 50 million shares, or 4.17% of outstanding shares, with a maximum value of 80 billion yen, scheduled from August 12 to December 31. "Strengthening the structural profit base along with improving resilience to low oil prices and yen appreciation has built confidence in future earnings," Yamada said, citing this as the reason behind the increased shareholder returns. For the six months ended June, Inpex's net profit increased 5.1% to 223.53 billion yen. The company aims to make a final investment decision on the Abadi LNG project in Indonesia by 2027, with peak production expected at 9.5 million metric tons a year. It plans to accumulate 400-600 billion yen for development preparation from 2025 to 2027, Yamada said. ($1 = 147.6600 yen) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japans-inpex-ups-annual-profit-forecast-strong-ichthys-lng-production-2025-08-08/