2025-08-08 09:30

Aug 8 (Reuters) - Geopolitics is high on the agenda, with a meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents, trade deadlines and talks, and markets bracing for United States' inflation data and rates decisions in Australia and Norway. Here is your week ahead from Alun John, Amanda Cooper and Karin Strohecker in London, Rae Wee in Singapore, and Lewis Krauskopf in New York. Sign up here. 1/FACE TIME Shuttle diplomacy is in full swing with U.S. President Donald Trump set to meet Russia's Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15 - the first face-to-face summit between a sitting U.S. president and his Russian counterpart since Joe Biden met Putin in June 2021. Trump - who has veered between admiration and sharp criticism of Putin - is looking for a breakthrough to end the 3-1/2 year war in Ukraine after voicing mounting frustration with his Russian counterpart and threatening new sanctions. Ramifications of the encounter are likely to ripple through global markets with secondary tariffs set to hurt Russia and other nations around the world. Trump has imposed an extra 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing continued imports of Russian oil, and warned that China could be next. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is pushing for Europe to be involved in the peace process and talks. 2/CHINA TRADE There has been further progress in the makings of a trade deal between Washington and Beijing, or so Trump and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have said. But the August 12 deadline for a tariff truce between the world's two economic superpowers is closing in. Trump has yet to sign on the dotted line after both sides at talks in Stockholm agreed to seek an extension of a pause on tariffs. Still, things seem somewhat positive for now. Trump has said he would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping before the end of the year should a trade deal be struck. Investors, meanwhile, are craving more clarity, remaining largely on the sidelines and leaving Chinese markets range-bound for the most part, though stocks ended the week near a 10-month high. 3/TEST FOR FED BETS Firming bets that the U.S. Fed is primed to resume cutting interest rates will be tested by Tuesday's release of U.S. inflation data. The July consumer price index will also be watched for signs of the impact of Trump's tariffs deluge fuelling more price hikes. June data showed the biggest rise in five months, as higher costs for some goods were starting to bite. A hot number could shake the narrative that the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting in September, which has gathered steam after a surprisingly weak employment report earlier this month. The inflation report is also one of the most significant U.S. economic data releases since Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the weak jobs report - a move that stoked fears about data integrity and credibility. 4/SEPARATE WAYS Australia's and Norway's central banks have been the two most cautious in developed economies in this cycle of rate cuts, but markets think their next moves could see them diverge. The Reserve Bank of Australia only started easing this year, and has made just two 25 bps cuts from its 2024 peak, compared to a cumulative 100 bps for the Fed, and 200 bps for the ECB. Norway's central bank has made just one 25 bps cut. In Australia, where inflation grew at its slowest pace in four years in the three months to June, markets expect a 25 bps reduction on Tuesday with one or maybe two more such cuts to follow this year. The Norges Bank, in contrast, is set to stay on hold on Thursday, with another cut not fully priced until November. Be nervous with market pricing though, at their last meetings both central banks confounded market expectations with Norway making its one cut, and Australia staying on hold. 5/IT'S QUIET...TOO QUIET The middle of August is generally viewed as one of the dullest periods in the year. Lawmakers and central bankers are on a break, there is no big data and traders use the lull to ditch their screens. There's just one small problem. August is when volatility has a habit of exploding - and last year was a case in point. A sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen, combined with a drop in U.S. tech stocks ignited one of the biggest one-day bursts in volatility on record. The average daily percentage move in the VIX volatility index (.VIX) , opens new tab in August over the last 35 years is 0.55%, the highest for any month. The least volatile month is April - even with this year's meltdown after Trump's announcement of his "Liberation Day" tariffs - with an average daily move of 0.07%. With stocks at record highs, and positioning in things like the dollar stretched, there is no shortage of tripwires. https://www.reuters.com/business/take-five/global-markets-themes-update-1-graphic-2025-08-11/

2025-08-08 07:40

US gold futures jump to an all-time high of $3,534.10 US imposes tariffs on 1-kg gold bars, Financial Times reports Spot gold on track for second straight weekly gain, up about 1% Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures climbed to a record high on Friday after a report that the United States had imposed tariffs on imports of 1-kg gold bars, while spot gold stayed on track for a second straight weekly gain on tariff turmoil and U.S. rate-cut hopes. Spot gold held steady at $3,396.92 per ounce, as of 0734 GMT, after hitting its highest since July 23 earlier in the session. Bullion is up about 1% so far this week. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 1.4% at $3,502.90, after hitting an all-time high of $3,534.10. The price spread between New York futures and spot prices widened by more than $100 after the Financial Times reported on Thursday that the United States had imposed tariffs on imports of 1-kg gold bars, citing a letter from Customs and Border Protection. The letter, dated July 31, said 1-kg and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code subject to higher tariffs, a move that could impact Switzerland, the world's largest gold refining hub. "This change will not take effect in two weeks or one month, so you cannot send more bars immediately. However, if you send them today, the price will be the Swiss London price plus additional tariffs, that's the new price in the U.S," said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "This has led to a widening of the U.S. price premium over the London price simply because it costs more." U.S. President Donald Trump's higher tariffs on imports from dozens of countries kicked in on Thursday, leaving major trade partners such as Switzerland, Brazil and India hurriedly searching for a better deal. Gold is often used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty. Additionally, weaker U.S. payroll data last week bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating a 91% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction next month. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.3% to $38.41 per ounce, platinum was steady at $1,333.88 and palladium was up 0.4% to $1,155.25. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-gold-futures-hit-record-high-after-report-us-tariffs-gold-bars-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 07:12

Aug 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday, heading for their steepest weekly losses since late June as the latest round of U.S. tariffs weighed on the economic outlook and likely upcoming Trump-Putin talks raised the prospect of an ease in sanctions on Russia. Brent crude futures were down 51 cents to $65.92 a barrel at 0630 GMT, on track to decline more than 4% week-over-week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 57 cents, or 0.89%, to $63.31 a barrel, set to fall nearly 6% on a weekly basis. Sign up here. Higher U.S. tariffs against a host of trade partners went into effect on Thursday. The tariffs raised concerns of weaker economic activity, which would hit demand for crude oil, ANZ Bank analysts said in a note, and came against the backdrop of an already weaker-than-expected U.S. labour market. A Kremlin announcement on Thursday that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump would meet in the coming days meanwhile raised expectations of a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine. That is widely expected to result in eased sanctions on Russia, which could unleash more barrels onto an oversupplied market. Trump earlier this week had threatened to hike tariffs on India if it kept buying Russian oil, which the market viewed as putting further pressure on Russia to reach a deal with the U.S., independent market analyst Tina Teng told Reuters. Trump on Wednesday also said China, the largest buyer of Russian crude oil, could be hit with tariffs similar to those being levied against Indian imports. Oil prices were already reeling from the OPEC+ group's decision last weekend to fully unwind its largest tranche of output cuts in September, months ahead of target. At Thursday's close, WTI futures had dropped for six consecutive sessions, matching a declining streak last recorded in December 2023. If prices settle lower on Friday, it will be the longest streak since August 2021. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-set-steepest-weekly-losses-since-june-tariffs-trump-putin-talks-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 07:11

NEW DELHI, Aug 8 (Reuters) - India's Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL.NS) , opens new tab is scouting for alternative crudes to protect itself if it were to stop buying Russian oil due to higher prices and sanctions, its chairman Vikas Kaushal said on Friday. Indian state refiners have paused buying Russian oil imports as it has become pricey, and President Donald Trump's threatened to impose a penalty on the South Asian nation for purchasing Russian oil. Sign up here. Trump has decided to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing New Delhi's continued imports of Russian oil in a move that sharply escalated tensions between the two nations after trade talks reached a deadlock. Kaushal said that while there was no official directive from the government regarding the purchase of Russian oil, HPCL's Russian oil intake in the June quarter fell to 13.2% due to narrowing discounts. "It's not because of any geopolitical reason. It was an economic decision based on what we needed to run in our refineries," Kaushal told an analyst call. HPCL remains open to buying Russian oil if it becomes competitively priced again, he said, adding the company would be able to absorb the financial loss for not processing Russian oil as it has already cut its Russian oil processing. HPCL directly controls 490,000 barrels per day refining capacity, and has a stake in private refiner HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, which operates a 226,000 bpd plant in northern India. It is also building a 180,000 bpd refinery at Barmer in the desert state of Rajasthan. HPCL has broadened its supplier base for crude imports and streamlined its crude import strategy, sourcing 4 million barrels through a single tender instead of multiple offers. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-hpcl-explores-russian-oil-alternative-amid-price-sanction-worry-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 06:29

US gold futures jump to an all-time high of $3,534.10 US imposes tariffs on 1-kg gold bars, Financial Times reports Spot gold on track for second straight weekly gain, up about 1% Aug 8 (Reuters) - Gold futures climbed to a record high on Friday after a report that the United States had imposed tariffs on imports of 1-kg gold bars, while spot gold stayed on track for a second straight weekly gain on tariff turmoil and U.S. interest rate-cut hopes. Spot gold held steady at $3,394.36 per ounce, as of 0620 GMT, after hitting its highest since July 23 earlier in the session. Bullion is up about 1% so far this week. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 1.3% at $3,499.30, after hitting an all-time high of $3,534.10. The price spread between New York futures and spot prices widened by more than $100 after the Financial Times reported on Thursday that the United States had imposed tariffs on imports of 1-kg gold bars, citing a letter from Customs and Border Protection. The letter, dated July 31, said 1-kg and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code subject to higher tariffs, a move that could impact Switzerland, the world's largest gold refining hub. The tariffs on gold bars "will create a dislocation or rather some issues in terms of settlement by big banks and this was reflected (in) liquidity prices this morning, with prices jumping everywhere," said Brian Lan, managing director at GoldSilver Central, Singapore, referring to prices influenced by trading disruptions and reduced liquidity. U.S. President Donald Trump's higher tariffs on imports from dozens of countries kicked in on Thursday, leaving major trade partners such as Switzerland, Brazil and India hurriedly searching for a better deal. Gold is often used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty. Additionally, weaker U.S. payroll data last week bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating a 91% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction next month. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.4% to $38.15 per ounce, platinum edged down 0.1% to $1,332.59 and palladium was down 0.2% to $1,148.77. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-futures-hit-record-high-after-report-us-tariffs-gold-bars-2025-08-08/

2025-08-08 06:08

Aug 8 (Reuters) - India’s Reliance Infrastructure (RLIN.NS) , opens new tab said on Friday that its power distribution companies in New Delhi will recover 214.13 billion rupees ($2.44 billion) in unpaid dues, following a Supreme Court ruling earlier this week that upheld their claims. The dues stem from historical tariff shortfalls, where electricity prices approved by regulators did not fully cover the cost of supply. Sign up here. Reliance Infra is part of the Anil Ambani-run Reliance Group. He is the younger brother of billionaire Mukesh Ambani. Under a court-approved mechanism, the amount will be recovered from consumers over four years starting April 2024, likely through higher electricity tariffs. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court ordered electricity regulators across India to clear deferred costs and unpaid dues owed to power distribution companies. The court also instructed state regulators to conduct audits and submit recovery roadmaps. In New Delhi alone, three distribution companies — including a unit of Tata Power (TTPW.NS) , opens new tab — had accumulated 272 billion rupees in unpaid dues by March 2024, according to the court document. The Delhi Electricity Regulatory Commission will oversee the recovery process, which is expected to result in increased electricity bills for consumers in the national capital. ($1 = 87.6140 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/indias-reliance-infra-recover-244-billion-unpaid-power-dues-new-delhi-consumers-2025-08-08/