2025-08-04 11:38
Stocks rise in Europe, US stock futures up US jobs shock leads markets to price in more rate cuts Dollar flat after Friday's sharp reversal Oil slips as OPEC+ increases production SYDNEY/LONDON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Global stocks rose on Monday, boosted by the prospect of lower interest rates, after a weak U.S. jobs report prompted a dramatic re-assessment of the rate outlook and ignited concern over the reliability of U.S. economic data. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July missed expectations and revised the figures for May and June sharply lower, sparking a selloff on Wall Street and denting the dollar. Sign up here. By Monday, with the chance of a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve at 85%, some stability returned to the broader market, allowing Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab to rise 0.5% in morning trading. The dollar edged up against a basket of six other major currencies. Downward revisions in the payrolls report left the three-month average of jobs growth at 35,000, down from 231,000 at the start of the year. "I guess the biggest takeaway from all that is the net revision. We’ve all seen poor NFP prints in the past, that we can explain away as a ‘one-off’, but such a chunky net downward revision suggests that this could well be a more pronounced weakening in labour market conditions that is underway," Pepperstone market strategist Michael Brown said. President Donald Trump's decision to fire the head of Labor Statistics in response added an extra layer of nervousness over the credibility of U.S. economic data. News that Trump would get to fill a governorship position at the Fed early added to worries about the politicization of interest rate policy. "It opens the prospect of broader support on the Fed Board for lower rates sooner rather than later," Ray Attrill, head of FX research at NAB, said. "Fed credibility, and the veracity of the statistics on which they base their policy decisions, are both now under the spotlight." Markets have essentially already eased for the Fed, with two-year Treasury yields down almost 25 basis points on Friday in the biggest one-day drop since August last year. DOLLAR DENTED Wall Street futures , rose 0.5-0.6%, suggesting some recovery after Friday's washout that drove the S&P 500 down (.SPX) , opens new tab 1.6% and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) , opens new tab down 2.2%. The dollar, which fell 1.4% on Friday in its biggest one-day fall since April, rose broadly, leaving the euro down 0.1% at $1.1578. The pound meanwhile edged up to $1.3307 ahead of a widely expected quarter-point rate cut on Thursday from the Bank of England that traders have priced in for some time. The Swiss franc took a beating, leaving the dollar up 0.6% as markets reopened in Zurich after a public holiday on Friday, when Trump announced a 39% tariff on Swiss imports. The dollar was also up 0.1% against the yen at 147.52 , having shed an eye-watering 2.3% on Friday. In commodity markets, gold was little changed at $3,364 an ounce, having climbed more than 2% on Friday, while oil prices extended their latest slide after OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to another large rise in output for September. The increase completely reverses last year's cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. Brent crude futures were down 1.7% at $68.48 a barrel. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-5-2025-08-04/
2025-08-04 11:23
Authorities reinforce flood defences, update evacuation plans More than 70,000 Beijing residents relocated All of Beijing on highest flood preparedness level Three dead, four missing at Hebei wellness retreat, Xinhua reports BEIJING, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Beijing had evacuated more than 70,000 residents by Monday afternoon and warned others to brace for a new round of heavy rainfall, a week after catastrophic floods killed dozens in the deadliest deluge to hit the Chinese capital since 2012. Up to 200mm (7.9 inches) of rain could hit parts of Beijing over a six-hour period from midday, weather forecasters warned. The city of 22 million people receives on average 600mm of rainfall each year. Sign up here. The warning comes as authorities rush to reinforce ageing flood defences, fine-tune weather forecasts and update evacuation plans amid reports of bodies being pulled from raging flood waters across the country, including at least three at a wellness camp in Hebei province. At least 44 people died in Beijing after heavy rains from July 23 to 29. Most of the dead were people unexpectedly trapped by rapidly rising waters at a nursing home in Miyun district on the city's northeastern outskirts. The fatalities led authorities to admit to shortcomings in their contingency plans for extreme weather. By noon on Monday, Beijing had placed all of its 16 districts on the highest level of preparedness, in the first citywide state of readiness since July 28, shutting parts of the Great Wall and other outdoor leisure venues and halting operations of below-ground businesses. The risk of flash floods and landslides is "extremely high", authorities said. By 2 p.m. (0600 GMT), the capital had relocated more than 70,000 residents - nearly 14,000 of them from the hilly Mentougou district in the city's west, the state broadcaster reported. In the summer of 2012, 79 people died in Beijing in the city's deadliest flooding in living memory, with the Fangshan district the worst-hit. Beijing's topography has been described by some as a rain "trap", with its mountains to the west and north capturing moist air and amplifying any ensuing rainfall as a result. WELLNESS RETREAT As of Saturday, torrential rains that swept through "Beijing Valley", a riverside wellness retreat in the Hebei city of Chengde adjacent to Beijing, had claimed three lives, with four still missing, China's state news agency Xinhua reported. Around 40 people had gathered on July 27 for an event at the site, where organisers directed them into tents pitched on low-lying land next to a river bend, Caixin Media reported. By 2 a.m. the next morning, floodwaters had risen to knee height, forcing attendees to scramble towards the camp's only exit. The site bore similarities to Camp Mystic in Texas, where at least 28 children were swept to their deaths last month by floodwaters after the Guadalupe River burst its banks amid torrential rain. In China's southern Guangdong province over the weekend, the bodies of five people were recovered after a large-scale search operation involving more than 1,300 rescuers. The five people, who went missing on Friday night, were swept away by water following heavy rainfall in recent days, Xinhua reported on Sunday. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/beijing-evacuates-residents-expands-storm-alert-deadly-floods-keep-city-edge-2025-08-04/
2025-08-04 11:06
HOUSTON, Aug 4(Reuters) - Venezuela's oil exports declined about 10% in July from the previous month as key partners of state company PDVSA awaited U.S. authorizations to expand operations in the country, according to vessel tracking data and company documents. Washington in late July green lit producer Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab to operate in the sanctioned country and export its crude to the U.S. under a restricted license that does not allow any payment to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's administration. Sign up here. Other PDVSA partners are still waiting for similar authorizations. Chevron's chief executive Mike Wirth said on Friday the company expects to resume exports of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. this month under the new license, in a "limited amount." He did not elaborate on the terms of the authorization, which was issued privately to the company. Venezuela exported an average of 727,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude and refined products last month, below the 807,000 bpd recorded in June. The OPEC country also shipped 227,000 metric tonnes of oil byproducts and petrochemicals in July, in line with the previous month. Direct and indirect oil shipments to China made up for about 95% of total exports, while Venezuela's political ally Cuba received 31,000 bpd of crude, gasoline and jet fuel, the data and documents showed. Chevron's exports of Venezuelan oil have been suspended since April, when PDVSA canceled cargoes it had scheduled for its joint-venture partner over payment problems related to U.S. sanctions on the OPEC country. The company's previous U.S. license and authorizations to other PDVSA partners had been revoked in March by President Donald Trump's administration. Venezuela's oil exports fell slightly in consequence, with more cargoes bound to China. In the last week of July, Venezuela's main oil terminal, the Jose port, emptied out almost completely, which boosted stocks of heavy crude and diluents, one of the documents showed. Since the new license was approved by Washington following a prisoner swap with Caracas and criticism in the U.S. Congress over more Venezuelan barrels going to China, Chevron has been negotiating a new off-taking mechanism with cash-strapped PDVSA. The arrangement is expected to include payments of mandatory royalties and taxes to Venezuela in kind, which could come from a portion of crude jointly produced or through oil swaps, with Chevron supplying Venezuela with diluents, sources close to the talks said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuelas-oil-exports-fell-july-partners-awaited-us-authorizations-2025-08-04/
2025-08-04 11:06
McEwen Copper will seek $600 million for infrastructure spending Feasibility study near completion Argentina has pipeline of eight major copper projects SAN JUAN, Argentina, Aug 4 (Reuters) - McEwen Mining (MUX.TO) , opens new tab expects to complete a feasibility study for its Los Azules copper mine in Argentina in two months, paving the way for the Canadian miner to seek $600 million in financing needed to build infrastructure next year, a top executive said in an interview. McEwen's copper division has spent $300 million on the project in the Andes mountains that will ultimately require about $3 billion, Michael Meding, vice president of McEwen Copper, told Reuters. Sign up here. The company is aiming to secure 20% of the total investment, the equivalent of $600 million, as soon as possible next year, he said. Los Azules expects to produce between 180,000 and 200,000 metric tons of copper annually by 2030, one of the eight major copper projects hoping to benefit from projections of soaring demand for the red metal in the coming years. Argentina’s substantial copper deposits are largely untapped, and the country has not produced any copper since the Bajo de la Alumbrera mine, then operated by Glencore (GLEN.L) , opens new tab, closed in 2018. In the coming year, Los Azules plans to expand the on-site encampment, build roads and erect electricity lines. Mine construction is slated to begin in 2027, with production starting in late 2029 or early 2030. "Our main challenge isn't engineering ... it's mobilizing the necessary funding so we can move at the pace we'd like," Meding said. The project also hopes that $277 million of the investment will qualify for an incentive program launched under President Javier Milei known as the Incentive Regime for Large Investments, or RIGI, meant to light a fuse under major investments. McEwen Mining is the biggest owner of Los Azules with a 46.4% share, followed by automotive company Stellantis (STLAM.MI) , opens new tab and global miner Rio Tinto's leaching technology unit Nuton. McEwen recently announced it has produced laboratory-scale cathodes, which Meding called an "important test" for the mine's plans to exclusively produce cathodes. The mine will use a heap leach production method that will allow it to use five-sixths less water than the traditional flotation and concentrate process, along with other techniques that will reduce its environmental impact, Meding said. Los Azules has also committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2038, and plans to use renewable energy, mostly solar, from Argentina's state-owned YPF Luz. (YPFDm.BA) , opens new tab Meding noted that McEwen was competing with other industries, not just mining, to secure funding. "We need to convince big capital now,” he said. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/mcewen-mining-complete-argentina-mine-feasibility-study-two-months-executive-2025-08-04/
2025-08-04 11:04
Latest Trump tariffs unlikely to budge, top negotiator says Trump to nominate new Fed candidate after Kugler's resignation Market expects a rate cut in September Citi raises gold forecast to $3,500/oz over next 3 months Aug 4 (Reuters) - Gold eased on Monday due to slightly firmer U.S. Treasury yields and profit-taking following last week's sharp rally driven by weak U.S. jobs data. Spot gold lost 0.2% to $3,356.91 per ounce, as of 1051 GMT, after rising more than 2% on Friday. Sign up here. However, U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $3,410.20. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher from Friday's five-week low, dulling non-yielding bullion's appeal. "The market will remain range bound with today's pullback being in line with some the reversals seen across markets following Friday's big moves, especially yields which are a tad firmer and stocks which have seen a rebound," Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, said. A rebound in stock markets, alongside a stabilizing dollar, also reflected a buy-the-dip mood following last week's payrolls-driven retreat. U.S. Labor Department data showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 73,000 in July after June's gain was revised down to 14,000. The weaker numbers bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with CME's FedWatch tool , opens new tab showing an 86% probability. FEDWATCH While gold is struggling to break higher, stagflation risks and prospects of further rate cuts are keeping sellers cautious, with a move above $3,430 likely to spark momentum buying, Hansen said. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would soon nominate a candidate to fill a vacant Fed seat after Governor Adriana Kugler early resignation. On the trade front, Trump's newly imposed tariffs on multiple countries are expected to remain during ongoing negotiations, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in comments aired on Sunday. Citi raised its three-month gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce from $3,300, citing a deteriorating near-term outlook for U.S. growth and inflation. Spot silver rose 0.3% to $37.14 per ounce, platinum fell 0.3% to $1,311.38 and palladium was down 0.8% at $1,199.08. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-eases-yields-rise-investors-book-profits-2025-08-04/
2025-08-04 11:03
LONDON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. Whatever the market take was from Friday's surprisingly soft U.S. payrolls update has been overshadowed by the instant firing of the statistician responsible for them - leaving more questions than answers about the veracity of these numbers and all those in the future. The massive downward revisions to prior months' job totals were a bigger initial jolt than the slight miss to July payrolls or the uptick in the unemployment rate. But President Donald Trump's dismissal of Bureau of Labor Statistics boss Erika McEntarfer over what he called "rigged" data means investors now either dismiss the July report or assume future reports will be massaged to be more favorable to Trump. * Trump's firing of McEntarfer has prompted investors to revisit April's questions about damage to U.S. transparency and institutional integrity - qualities that, for many, have been at the heart of America's long-standing exceptional economic and financial performance. The early resignation of Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler, also on Friday, now gives Trump the chance to put a third nominee on the seven-person Fed board - increasing his influence on the central bank while he is demanding steep interest rate cuts. * The jobs data release on Friday has prompted market futures to price an 85% chance of a Fed cut next month - compared to less than 50% beforehand - and more than fully price two cuts by year's end. U.S. Treasury yields plunged to their lowest in over a month. Ten-year yields clocked the biggest one-day fall of the year and the 2-30-year yield curve widened to its steepest in over three years. The dollar swooned, giving back a chunk of last month's rally. Most of these moves were pared back slightly first thing on Monday. * U.S. stocks ended down more than 1% on Friday, having already been jarred by the August 1 tariff announcements, and the VIX 'fear index' jumped above 20 for the first time since June - likely reflecting unexpected jobs market weakness and a duff earnings outlook from Amazon. Futures were back up more than 0.5% ahead of Monday's bell as another heavy week of earnings beckons and Palantir tops Monday's diary. With two-thirds of the S&P 500 having reported Q2 updates, the blended annual profit growth rate for the 500 firms is running at 11% - almost twice estimates one month ago and back roughly to where expectations were on January 1. Market Minute: * White House economic advisers on Sunday defended Trump's firing of McEntarfer, pushing back against criticism that it could undermine confidence in official U.S. economic data. * A top aide to Trump on Sunday accused India of effectively financing Russia's war in Ukraine by purchasing oil from Moscow, after the U.S. leader escalated pressure on New Delhi to stop buying Russian oil. * The Bank of England is widely expected to cut its key interest rate to 4% from 4.25% on Thursday and to lower it once more before the end of the year, despite consumer price inflation rising in June to almost double the central bank's 2% target. * Only a few months ago, it would have been a brave call to say that OPEC+ would be able to bring back 2.5 million barrels per day of crude production and still keep oil prices anchored around $70 a barrel. But this is exactly what has occurred. ROI columnist Clyde Russell asks whether the group’s lucky timing can continue. * The Korean equity market, which went from being among the worst performers in Asia last year to the best regional performer in 2025, stumbled over the past week. The rally has fundamental support, but it could sputter if expected shareholder-friendly reforms don’t materialize, argues Emmer Capital Partners CEO Manishi Raychaudhuri. Chart of the day: Feeling the heat? July was the third warmest on record worldwide - some 1.25 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial era average. Today's events to watch * U.S. July employment trends (1000 EDT), June durable goods orders (1000 EDT) * US corporate earnings: Palantir, Loews, Tyson Foods, Coterra Energy, ON Semiconductor, Vertex, Waters, SBA communications, Diamondback Energy, Williams, IDEXX, ONEOK, Axon -- Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-08-04/
