2025-08-26 11:30

MOSCOW, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia and India were the top destinations for Russian seaborne fuel oil and vacuum gasoil (VGO) exports in July, traders said and LSEG data shows. Since the European Union's full embargo on Russian oil products took effect in February 2023, Middle Eastern and Asian countries have become the main destinations for Russia's fuel oil and VGO supplies. Sign up here. Direct fuel oil and VGO shipments from Russian ports to Saudi Arabia totalled about 1.1 million metric tons in July, little changed from June, shipping data showed. Most of the cargoes were destined for power plants because Middle Eastern countries typically burn crude and high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) for energy generation between June and August, when air conditioning demand spikes. Russian dark oil products loadings to India rose last month by 65% from June to about 0.6 million tons, LSEG data shows. India imports straight-run fuel oil and VGO from Russia as a cheaper alternative to Urals crude oil in its refinery feedstock pool. Though Russia continues to be the biggest oil supplier to India, oil imports declined in July by a quarter month on month as some refiners slowed purchases owing to smaller discounts. Singapore, Turkey and Senegal were also among the top destinations for Russian fuel oil and VGO export supplies last month, LSEG data showed. All the shipping data above is based on the date of cargo departure. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-arabia-india-were-biggest-buyers-russian-fuel-oil-july-data-shows-2025-08-26/

2025-08-26 11:02

LONDON, Aug 26 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. While markets cheered Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's apparent dovish tilt on interest rates last week, everything's gone flat today, and President Donald Trump’s claim to have fired Fed board member Lisa Cook isn’t helping. Trump’s attempt to fire Cook is based on allegations of improper mortgage borrowing. The legality of this move is unclear, but it has still sparked fresh concerns about the central bank's independence, as her removal would potentially give the president a majority on the Fed board next year. Cook's refusal to accept Trump's announcement sets up a major battle between the White House and the Fed. In response, the 2-to-30-year Treasury yield curve moved to its steepest since January 2022, the dollar dropped lower and U.S. stock futures fell into the red. * Despite Powell's Jackson Hole nod to labor market softness on Friday, forcing many W all Street banks to change their forecasts to see a quarter point rate cut next month, Fed futures are still not fully priced for that outcome - with only an 80% chance of a cut seen. That's partly because August U.S. payrolls and consumer price reports could yet be a game changer in that decision. This week's big economic release is the July PCE inflation report on Friday, with Nvidia's quarterly results tomorrow dominating the corporate diary and holding tech stocks back in advance. The S&P 500 closed in the red on Monday. * Part of the reason why the dollar's initial losses on the Cook announcement weren't larger was that the euro has tensions of its own. France's main stock index (.FCHI) , opens new tab fell 2% and 10-year French bond yields hit their highest since March as three main opposition parties said they would not back a confidence vote, which Prime Minister Francois Bayrou announced for September 8 over his plans for sweeping budget cuts. Shares of French banks BNP Paribas and Societe Generale slumped 6.2% and 5.2%, respectively, with talk of another snap election in the mix. * With last week's tech angst still in the air and Nvidia's report due, Trump on Monday threatened countries that have digital taxes with "subsequent additional tariffs" on their goods. The anxiety ratcheted up on news Trump is considering sanctions on European Union or state officials responsible for implementing the bloc's Digital Services Act on complaints the law censors Americans and imposes costs on U.S. tech firms. Elsewhere, Intel said the U.S. government's 9.9% stake in the chipmaker could pose risks to its business, from potentially harming international sales to limiting its ability to secure future government grants. Today's daily column looks at the lonely plight of the value , opens new tab investor , opens new tab, as a leading light of that strategy refuses to fold. Today's Market Minute * U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he was firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged improprieties in obtaining mortgage loans, an unprecedented step that could test the boundaries of presidential power over the independent monetary policy body. * Indian exporters are bracing for disruptions after a U.S. Homeland Security notification confirmed Washington would impose an additional 25% tariff on all Indian-origin goods from Wednesday, ramping up trade pressure on the Asian nation. * U.S. and Russian government officials discussed several energy deals on the sidelines of negotiations this month that sought to achieve peace in Ukraine, according to five sources familiar with the talks. * Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is coming under fire for appearing to cave to political pressure in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which opened the door to an interest rate cut next month, a shift from his more hawkish stance only a few weeks ago. But the charge is unfair argues ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever. * China's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are poised to rise for a fourth straight month in August, but, writes ROI columnist Clyde Russell, this may not be quite as bullish as it first appears. Chart of the day Now the world's most valuable company with a market cap of $4.39 trillion, Nvidia's stock has climbed more than 30% so far in 2025, pushing its gain to over 1,400% since October 2022. The California-based company has epitomized the broader AI excitement that has driven up shares of a raft of tech companies and others involved in AI infrastructure, such as power generation and cooling systems. But its explosive growth is inevitably set to slow and Wednesday's results will be forensically examined for bumps in the road ahead. Nvidia options implied a roughly 6% swing for the shares in either direction following the results, which will be reported after markets close. Today's events to watch * U.S. July durable goods orders (8:30 AM EDT), June house prices (9:00 AM EDT), Richmond Fed August business surveys (10:00 AM EDT), Dallas Fed's August services (10:30 AM EDT) * Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin speaks; Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks; Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann speaks * U.S. Treasury sells $69 billion of 2-year notes Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-08-26/

2025-08-26 11:01

French banking giants take biggest hit, down over 6% 'It looks like Bayrou will be gone', investor says Uncertainty comes at a fragile time for global bond markets LONDON, Aug 26 (Reuters) - The prospect that France's minority government could collapse soon triggered a sharp selloff in French stocks and bonds on Tuesday, pushing political risks from the euro zone's second biggest economy back to the forefront of investors' minds. Three main opposition parties said they would not back a confidence vote which Prime Minister Francois Bayrou announced for September 8 over his plans for sweeping budget cuts. Sign up here. France's blue chip CAC40 index fell over 2% (.FCHI) , opens new tab to its lowest level in almost three weeks, having fallen 1.6% late on Monday. Banking giants BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) , opens new tab and Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) , opens new tab slid more than 6% each, while midcap stocks slid nearly 3%. (.CACMD) , opens new tab Meanwhile, 10-year French government bond yields briefly rose to 3.53%, the highest since March , before steadying at 3.50%. When a bond's yield rises, its price falls. The gap between French and German 10-year yields, a gauge of the premium investors require to hold French debt, widened to around 79 bps -- its largest since April. Analysts had anticipated a return in French political risk come autumn as the government tries to secure support for steps to improve France's fiscal position. But Monday's developments came as a surprise. If Bayrou loses the confidence vote in the National Assembly, his government will fall. President Emmanuel Macron could then name a new prime minister, ask Bayrou to remain head of a caretaker government, or he could call a snap election. "It looks like Bayrou will be gone. It will be hard for Macron to install another Prime Minister if a confidence vote is lost, without going to new Parliamentary elections," said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer for BlueBay fixed income. "This should weigh on French debt in the coming weeks on the risk that Le Pen's National Rally ends up winning a majority," said Dowding, adding that he anticipated a further widening in French bond spreads in the weeks ahead. The German-French spread reached 90 basis points late last year. Meanwhile, the gap between French and Italian 10-year yields, which was around 150 bps two years ago, is now around 10 bps. But French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said on Tuesday he was "certainly not resigned" to the idea of Bayrou's minority government falling next month. Lombard also suggested there was a risk the International Monetary Fund would have to intervene in the economy if France doesn't get its finances in order. Latest developments are also a reminder that French turmoil could temper sentiment towards "Make Europe Great Again" trades, with European economies benefiting from U.S. policy uncertainty and steps to boost long-term growth prospects from heavyweight Germany. HOT SPOT Banks bore the brunt of the selling, with their stocks the biggest faller by some margin in the blue chip index. The cost of insuring Societe Generale's against default rose to its highest since June, and BNP Paribas' to its highest since July. Bank shares are often the first to fall on budget concerns in France. "Higher sovereign spreads normally translate into at least partially higher wholesale funding costs for banks, putting pressure on net interest margins," said Johann Scholtz, senior equity analyst at Morningstar. "The instability also does not augur well for economic growth in France, which feeds through in the outlook for French banks." It's also a fragile time for global bond markets, with investors increasingly worried about high government debt and the ability of big economies to exercise fiscal constraint. Bayrou is trying to tame a budget deficit that hit 5.8% of gross domestic product last year, nearly double the official EU limit of 3%. European markets in addition have seen substantial buying recently, meaning there are plenty of investors left to sell. "There is potential for spread volatility, looking at institutional participation in government bond markets, a lot of money went into Europe," said Tim Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street. "We are heading into budget season which is why this (the French selloff) is happening," he added, "all of these countries are unable or unwilling to restrain spending, that includes France and Britain." https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-stocks-bonds-tumble-government-faces-potential-collapse-2025-08-26/

2025-08-26 10:25

MUMBAI, Aug 26 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee continued its losing streak for a fifth consecutive session on Tuesday as Washington confirmed it will impose an extra 25% levy on Indian goods, clouding the outlook for Asia's third-largest economy. The fall in the rupee was curbed after dollar sales from banks, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, traders said. Sign up here. U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Monday outlined the procedure to implement additional tariff on Indian goods starting Wednesday. The tariffs risk slowing growth in India as exporters face U.S. duties of up to 50% - among the highest imposed by Washington. Exporter groups estimate that the hikes could affect nearly 55% of India's $87 billion in merchandise exports to the U.S., while benefiting competitors such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and China. The rupee ended at 87.68 against the dollar, the lowest level in three weeks, against 87.58 at the previous close. It came within striking distance of its lifetime low of 87.95 hit in February. "The bias for the rupee is still weak amid imbalance between dollar demand and supply," said Dilip Parmar, currency analyst at HDFC Securities. "Looking at the current market conditions, the rupee's new low is looking imminent. Short term traders will be eyeing trade tariff and GST rate rejig announcement." Parmar expects the rupee to see support at 87.90 near term and for gains to be capped at 87.25. Meanwhile, Asian currencies were mixed, with the dollar index falling after U.S. President Donald Trump ends fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud. The removal comes amid the president's regular threats to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Indian financial markets are closed on Wednesday. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/impending-trump-tariff-hike-pushes-rupee-down-5th-straight-session-2025-08-26/

2025-08-26 09:46

Trump fires Governor Cook amid push for more influence at Fed Dollar steady after stumbling on Trump's announcement Cook's removal highlights worries over Fed independence French bonds tumble as government faces collapse SINGAPORE/MUMBAI, Aug 26 (Reuters) - The dollar steadied after a volatile start on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump's unprecedented move to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook renewed concerns over the central bank's independence. The euro and sterling were little changed against the dollar at $1.1617 and $1.3461, respectively, in line with muted moves in other currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc . Sign up here. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was flat at 98.42, recovering from a fall of as much as 0.4% after Trump made the announcement in a letter to Cook that he posted on social media. The move marks a sharp escalation of Trump's battle against the Fed. The president has repeatedly berated Fed Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates, though has stopped threatening to fire him ahead of the end of his term in a little under 9 months. "The story has been well-telegraphed," said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate FX and rates research at Societe Generale, referring to Trump's push for lower benchmark borrowing costs. In the letter, Trump said he was firing Cook over alleged improprieties in obtaining mortgage loans. In response, Cook said Trump has no authority to fire her from the central bank, and she will not resign. Money markets are currently pricing in a near 82% probability of a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. While investors may be inclined to sell the dollar, lingering economic and fiscal worries in Europe also narrow the available currencies to bet on a decline in the U.S. currency, Broux said. France's government bonds fell as the country's minority government looked increasingly likely to be ousted next month, with main opposition parties saying they would not back a confidence vote announced by Prime Minister Francois Bayrou over his plans for sweeping budget cuts. The 10-year government bond yield rose around 4 basis points to 3.53%, its highest since March. Bond yields move inversely to prices. "The broader question for the euro is whether recent French news destabilises appetite for the euro more broadly, or whether this is an isolated French issue," analysts at ING said in a note. China's offshore yuan changed hands at 7.1635 per dollar , trading near the strongest level in a month, as a stock market rally gathered steam. Cryptocurrencies remained choppy with bitcoin last up 0.5%, attempting to break a three-day losing streak, while ether climbed 1.5%. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-steadies-after-jolt-trumps-ouster-fed-governor-2025-08-26/

2025-08-26 09:38

Trump says he has cause to remove her but will abide by any court ruling Another open board seat could boost Trump's influence over Fed Market reaction to Trump's uprecedented move on Cook muted Fed meets next to set interest rates on September 16-17 WASHINGTON, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will file a lawsuit to prevent President Donald Trump from firing her, a lawyer for the embattled central bank official said on Tuesday, kicking off what could be a protracted legal fight over the White House's effort to shape U.S. monetary policy. "His attempt to fire her, based solely on a referral letter, lacks any factual or legal basis. We will be filing a lawsuit challenging this illegal action," Cook's lawyer, prominent Washington attorney Abbe Lowell, said in a statement. Sign up here. The statement was issued a day after Trump said he would fire Cook, the first Black woman to serve on the central bank's governing body, for alleged "deceitful and potential criminal conduct" related to mortgages she took out in 2021. Trump's attempt to remove her, unprecedented in the 111-year history of the nominally independent U.S. Federal Reserve Board, is consistent with his style of breaking norms and prompting opponents to challenge him in court. It follows other largely successful efforts to bring other elements of the U.S. government under his direct control. Since returning to office in January, the president has overseen the departure of hundreds of thousands of civil servants, dismantled several agencies and withheld billions of dollars of spending authorized by Congress. "We need people that are 100% above board and it doesn't seem like she was," Trump told reporters at a meeting. He said he had several "good people" in mind to replace Cook but would abide by any court decision that left her in her job. Trump pressured the Fed to lower interest rates during his first term in the White House and he has escalated that campaign in recent months. The president has demanded that rates be cut by several percentage points and threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, although he recently backed down from that. Cook's departure would allow Trump to pick a majority of the Fed's seven-member board, including two incumbents and the pending nomination of White House economist Stephen Miran. Trump said he may consider Miran, whom he nominated for a temporary seat on the Fed board that is due to expire in January, for Cook's seat should it become vacant. The Wall Street Journal reported that former World Bank Group President David Malpass, a longtime Trump ally, was also discussed for the job. The Fed said in a statement that Cook and other board members serve 14-year tenures and cannot be removed easily from office, in order to ensure that monetary policy decisions are based on economic data and "the long-term interests of the American people." Though Trump on Monday said Cook's firing was "effective immediately," the Fed's statement indicates that it sees Cook's status as unchanged. The central bank next meets to set interest rates on September 16-17, and based on the Fed's statement it appears it would take a court ruling between now and then for her to be prevented from participating. The attempt to influence U.S. monetary policy has shaken confidence in the dollar and U.S. sovereign debt and sparked fears of global financial turmoil. Wall Street's main equities indexes closed slightly higher on Tuesday, while the dollar dropped. The yield curve on U.S. Treasuries steepened on Tuesday as Trump's attempt to fire Cook raised concerns about the U.S. central bank's independence and the prospect of a potentially more dovish composition of Fed policymakers. Trump said in a letter to Cook on Monday that he had "sufficient cause" to fire her because she had described separate properties in Michigan and Georgia as primary residences on mortgage applications before she joined the Fed in 2022. In recent months Trump has fired several Black women who held senior government positions, including the head of the Library of Congress and the chair of the National Labor Relations Board. MORTGAGE QUESTIONS William Pulte, a Trump appointee who is director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, first raised questions about Cook's mortgages last week and referred the matter to U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi for investigation. Bondi has yet to say whether the Justice Department will take action. Cook took out the two mortgages in question when she was an academic. She is due to serve on the Fed board through 2038, but the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 allows removal of a sitting governor "for cause." Until now, that power has not been tested. U.S. presidents have largely taken a hands-off approach to Fed matters to ensure confidence in monetary policy. Peter Conti-Brown, a scholar of the Fed's history at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, noted that the mortgage transactions preceded her appointment to the Fed and were in the public record when she was vetted and confirmed by the Senate. "The idea that you can then reach back, turn the clock backward and say, you know, 'All these things that have happened before now constitute fireable offenses from your official position' is to me incongruous with the entire concept of 'for cause' removal," Conti-Brown said. Academic research has found that policymakers who are allowed to manage inflation independent of political meddling generally achieve better outcomes. "The Fed as an institution escaped harm in the first Trump administration, and will not be so fortunate this time around," said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-is-removing-fed-governor-cook-2025-08-26/