2025-08-01 20:04

Dollar falls broadly against peers after weak US jobs report Swiss franc, Canadian dollar earlier hit by country tariffs Bank of Japan signals no hurry to resume rate hikes NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The dollar dropped on Friday and was on track for its biggest daily loss against the yen since January 2023 after data showed that U.S. employers added fewer jobs in July than economists had expected, while last month’s jobs gains were revised sharply lower, leading traders to ramp up bets on how many times the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates this year. Employers added 73,000 jobs last month, below the 110,000 expected by economists polled by Reuters, while the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2%, as anticipated, up from 4.1% in June. Job gains for June were revised down to 14,000, from the previously reported 147,000. Sign up here. “It's worse than anyone expected and the kicker is that downward revision for the prior month too,” said Helen Given, director of trading at Money USA in Washington. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 1.23% on the day at 98.80. The euro rose 1.37% to $1.1571 and was on track for its biggest daily gain since April. The single currency reached $1.1389 earlier on Friday, the lowest since June 10. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 2.23% to 147.37. The greenback earlier reached 150.91, the highest since March 28. The Fed has indicated it is in no rush to cut rates due to concern that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies will reignite inflation over the coming months. Fed funds futures traders pared bets on how many times the U.S. central bank is likely to cut rates this year after Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday offered a hawkish outlook for monetary policy and declined to indicate that a cut in September was likely. But they ramped up bets on cuts again on Friday after the jobs data. Traders are now pricing in 63 basis points of cuts by year-end, up from around 34 basis points on Thursday, with the first cut seen in September. The dollar extended its drop on Friday after the Fed said Governor Adriana Kugler was resigning from the Federal Reserve effective Aug. 8. Trump on Friday also ordered that the commissioner of the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics Erika McEntarfer be fired after the weaker than expected jobs data and downward revisions. Whether the Fed cuts in September may now depend on the next jobs report for August. “(Powell) did say on Wednesday that we were looking at holding rates steadier for longer, but that we were going to get two sets of employment data before the next Fed meeting. So as this first set has been so decidedly negative… the labor market is clearly, clearly cooling, that's going to raise the importance of that September figure as well,” said Given. The August jobs data will be released on September 5, with the Fed due to meet on September 16-17. A more dovish Fed would likely be negative for the U.S. currency, even after it has appeared to find its footing in recent weeks following a rough first half of the year. "Our forecast for the dollar to strengthen in the second half of the year relies in large part on our view that the US economy will remain resilient and the FOMC keep policy on hold until 2026," Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics said in a note. "Plainly, that now looks less probable; in a recession scenario the dollar is likely to weaken against lower yielding currencies such as the yen and the euro, even if it may rally against other, riskier currencies," he said. The dollar had gained earlier on Friday after Trump imposed new tariff rates on dozens of trade partners. The Swiss franc was among the hardest hit as Switzerland now faces a 39% rate. The Swissie fell against a range of currencies in response to Trump's hefty duties and to his demand that pharma companies - key Swiss exporters - lower the prices at which they sell to U.S. consumers. The dollar was last down 0.9% against the Swiss franc at 0.805 , after earlier reaching 0.8171, the highest since June 23. The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.43% versus the greenback to C$1.38 per dollar, after earlier easing to C$1.3879, the weakest since May 22. Canada was hit with a 35% tariff, instead of the threatened 25%. The dollar had also gained against other currencies due to drivers other than tariffs. The yen was earlier headed for its largest weekly loss this year after the Bank of Japan signaled it was in no hurry to resume interest rate hikes, prompting Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato to say on Friday that officials were "alarmed" by currency moves. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 2.65% to $113,432. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-tumbles-traders-bet-more-us-rate-cuts-after-weak-jobs-report-2025-08-01/

2025-08-01 19:51

NEW DELHI, Aug 1 (Reuters) - India is engaged in trade talks with the United States, an Indian government source with knowledge of the discussions said on Friday, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order imposing a 25% tariff on New Delhi's exports. Trump set steep import duties on dozens of trading partners, including a 35% tariff on many goods from Canada, 50% for Brazil, 20% for Taiwan and 39% for Switzerland, according to a presidential executive order. Sign up here. A U.S. delegation is expected to visit New Delhi later this month, the government source said. "We remain focused on the substantive agenda that our two countries have committed to and are confident that the relationship will continue to move forward," India's foreign ministry said in a statement on Friday. Trade talks between Washington and New Delhi have been bogged down by issues including access to India's highly protected agriculture and dairy sector. Nearly $40 billion worth of exports from the South Asian nation - the world's fifth largest economy - could be impacted by Trump's tariff salvo, according to the source. Without a deal, the rate singles out India for harsher trade conditions than its major peers, potentially damaging the economy of a strategic U.S. partner in Asia that is seen as a counterbalance to Chinese influence. The source said there is no question of compromising on India's agriculture and dairy sectors, especially not allowing import of dairy products due to religiously based opposition to animal feed in these products. On Wednesday, Trump also threatened additional penalties on India for its commercial dealings with Russia and membership in the BRICS group of major emerging and developing economies. There is no clarity yet on the penalty. Trump accuses BRICS of pursuing "anti-American policies". Differences between the U.S. and India cannot be resolved overnight to arrive at a trade deal, a senior U.S. official said on Thursday. The U.S. has a trade deficit of $46 billion with India. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-engaged-further-trade-talks-with-us-indian-government-source-says-2025-08-01/

2025-08-01 19:40

Equities sink, dollar and Treasury yields tumble US July nonfarm payrolls weaker than expected, June sharply lower Trump orders firing of head of BLS, Fed's Kugler resigns early US announces new tariff rates ahead of trade talks deadline Oil prices in steep decline on supply boost worries NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - MSCI's global equities index sold off sharply on Friday and the dollar took a dive after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data fueled economic worries and boosted bets for September interest rate cuts while investors also considered U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff announcements and key personnel changes. U.S. Treasuries were in demand after the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 73,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, below economists' expectations for 110,000. June's job growth was revised sharply lower to 14,000 from 147,000. Sign up here. After the report, Trump said he ordered his team to fire the commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika L. McEntarfer, nominated by prior President Joe Biden for the role. Then the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields lost further ground when the Federal Reserve said Governor Adriana Kugler is resigning early from her term on Aug. 8, causing some investors anxiety at a time when Trump has loudly disagreed with Fed rate policies. Late on Friday, traders were betting on an 87.5% probability for a September rate cut compared with 37.7% on Thursday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. "The market is reacting to the possibility of the economy flipping into recession. The weak jobs data is piling on to weak earnings reports and weak guidance from some corporations," said Luke Tilley, Chief Economist, Wilmington Trust. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 12.23 points, or 1.32%, to 917.39, suggesting its biggest daily drop since mid-April. The softer jobs data added to losses for the global index, which was already in the red after a host of tariff announcements from Trump the day before. On Thursday, Trump ordered tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on U.S. imports from several major trading partners. He increased duties on Canadian goods to 35% from 25% for all products not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. He set a 25% rate for India's U.S.-bound exports, 20% for Taiwan's, 19% for Thailand's and 15% for South Korea's. Mexico, however, got a 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs to allow for deal talks. On the earnings front, market heavyweight Amazon (AMZN.O) , opens new tab tumbled more than 8% on Friday after its quarterly report showed cloud computing growth that disappointed investors. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 542.40 points, or 1.23%, to 43,588.58, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 101.38 points, or 1.60%, to 6,238.01, for its biggest one-day percentage drop since May 21 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 472.32 points, or 2.24%, to 20,650.13, its steepest one-day drop since April 21. Earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index ended down 1.89%, its biggest drop since April 9. In currencies, the greenback reversed course to fall sharply after the data due to increased expectations for rate cuts. Earlier it had found support in fading hopes for U.S. rate cuts. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against major currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 1.37% to 98.66, the euro was up 1.52% at $1.1589. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 2.26% to 147.32. "The way (the market) is going to interpret (the departures) is in a very dollar-negative way," Juan Perez, senior director of trading, Monex USA, referring to both the Kugler and McEntarfer news. "No matter what the economic picture in the United States, the one thing that holds the U.S. dollar strong in the eyes of the world is the authority and the independence of the Federal Reserve. Whenever anything comes to potentially put that into compromise then that's when the U.S. dollar spirals down." U.S. Treasury yields plunged on the jobs data and the increased bets for September rate cuts, and fell to fresh session lows in the late afternoon after the Kugler announcement. Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel, said Trump "is getting a bigger chance to appoint people whose views match his own" at the Fed. Regarding the BLS firing Tuz said "I don't like to see a bureaucrat fired just because the data that gets presented doesn't support the administration's policies." The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 14 basis points to 4.22%, from 4.36% late on Thursday. The 30-year bond yield fell 6.4 basis points to 4.8211%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 26.1 basis points to 3.69%. In energy markets, oil prices sank about 2.8% after the jobs data and on jitters about a possible production increase by OPEC and its allies. Oil had settled around 1% lower on Thursday. U.S. crude settled down 2.79%, or $1.93 at $67.33 a barrel and Brent settled at $69.67 per barrel, down 2.83%, or $2.03 on the day. Elsewhere in commodities, gold prices rallied to a one-week high as investors sought safety after the weak jobs report, policy easing expectations and the latest tariff announcements. Spot gold rose 2.14% to $3,360.45 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-9-graphics-2025-08-01/

2025-08-01 19:31

OTTAWA, Aug 1 (Reuters) - A proposed U.S.-Canada trade deal could still be weeks away, Ottawa's chief negotiator said on Friday, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed higher tariffs on imports from Canada. Trump - who had set an August 1 deadline for an agreement - signed an executive order increasing tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% from 25% on all products not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Sign up here. Prime Minister Mark Carney insisted on the talks to reset bilateral relations, saying Trump's tariffs have upended decades-old trading and security ties. The negotiations, though, have so far produced little. Although over 90% of Canadian exports enter the United States without duties, the tariffs apply to crucial sectors such as steel, aluminum and automobiles. Federal cabinet minister Dominic LeBlanc, in charge of U.S. trade relations, said Canada had always made clear it would only accept a good deal. "At the end of business yesterday that agreement was not yet in sight ... there remain sectors the Americans are targeting which are essential for the Canadian economy," he told public broadcaster Radio-Canada. "Over the coming weeks we will ... continue talks with the Americans in an attempt to find a deal that would put us in a better position." Separately, LeBlanc told reporters in Washington that he would speak to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick next week and hoped to meet him in August. "The doors aren't closed, the doors are open, the conversations are ongoing," he said. The White House cited what it said was Canada's failure to stop fentanyl smuggling and address U.S. concerns about trade barriers. Washington is also unhappy about Canada's refusal to drop its own countermeasures, which were first imposed by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He resigned in March to be replaced by Carney, who won an April election promising to stand up to Trump. In June, Carney had threatened to ramp up counter tariffs in July unless there was progress on the deal. A statement he issued on Friday did not mention retaliation. Brian Clow, who was in charge of U.S. relations inside Trudeau's office for several years, noted Trump had announced deals with nations that declined to impose counter tariffs. "Unfortunately, Canada stands on its own right now, along with China, because many other countries ... refused to stand up to this President," he said by phone. "So I'm not sure that further retaliation is the way to go." Carney's talk about standing up to Trump cannot hide the divisions between those advocating for a hard line and those who worry about the potential economic damage. Goldy Hyder, president of the Business Council of Canada lobby group, said Canada was struggling at the talks and urged a new approach. "As someone said to me, Canada is playing chess, but there's nobody playing chess with it at the other end," he said. "We've got to make sure that we are thinking through: 'What have we been doing and what do we need to do?'," he told CBC News. "We've got to move with greater urgency, because our own economy is very fragile." https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/proposed-canada-us-trade-deal-could-still-be-weeks-away-says-ottawa-2025-08-01/

2025-08-01 19:26

New model to include royalties in kind from crude output or diluent imports PDVSA's European partners await authorized to resume operations Rebound to volumes earlier this year not seen soon, analyst says HOUSTON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab expects its exports of Venezuelan crude to the United States to resume this month, the U.S. oil producer's CEO said on Friday, following a restricted license received this week from the Treasury Department to operate in the sanctioned country and do oil swaps. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth also said in a call to disclose the company's quarterly results that the exports will begin with a "limited amount," and added that he does not expect the flows to have a material impact on third-quarter results. Sign up here. Chevron's exports of Venezuelan oil have been suspended since April, when state-owned oil firm PDVSA canceled cargoes it had scheduled for its joint-venture partner over payment problems related to U.S. sanctions on the OPEC country. In March, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration revoked a license granted to Chevron under former President Joe Biden. Trump's administration gave Chevron and a handful of PDVSA partners until late May to wind down transactions. Last month, Washington agreed to reinstate Chevron's license after a successful prisoner swap with Venezuela. Members of the U.S. Congress also urged granting the oil authorizations again to prevent Venezuelan barrels from going to China. PDVSA's European partners have not yet been authorized to resume operations in Venezuela or export oil to their refineries, according to company sources. Before the licenses were canceled, Chevron exported some 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan crude in the first quarter, according to data based on vessel movements. That represented 29% of the country's total exports. The new authorization is similar to the Biden-era license, but it prohibits payments to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's administration in any currency, according to sources and information provided by U.S. officials. Since the license was greenlit by Washington, Chevron has been negotiating a new off-taking mechanism with cash-strapped PDVSA. The arrangement is expected to include payments of mandatory royalties and taxes to Venezuela in kind, which could come from a portion of crude jointly produced or through oil swaps with Chevron supplying Venezuela with diluents, the sources said. Chevron's Venezuela unit also ordered new inspections of PDVSA's loading terminals, ahead of any vessel chartering contracts, shipping sources said. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners snapped up higher volumes of Middle Eastern and South American crudes in July to offset the loss of Venezuelan barrels, ship tracking data showed. "Although we expect deliveries to return to the U.S. in short order, comments from CEO Mike Wirth indicate we shouldn't expect a rebound to the volumes seen earlier in the year any time soon," said Matt Smith, a lead oil analyst at Kpler. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevrons-exports-venezuelan-oil-expected-resume-this-month-ceo-says-2025-08-01/

2025-08-01 19:25

Oil prices head for weekly gain US tariffs on dozens of countries take effect on August 1 Investors weigh impact from Trump threats over Russian oil HOUSTON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices $2 a barrel on Friday because of jitters about a possible increase in production by OPEC and its allies, while a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report fed worries about demand. Brent crude futures settled at $69.67 a barrel, down $2.03, or 2.83%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $67.33 a barrel, down $1.93, or 2.79%. Sign up here. Brent finished the week with a gain near 6%, while WTI rose 6.29%. Three people familiar with discussions among OPEC members and allied producers said the group may reach an agreement as early as Sunday to boost production by 548,000 barrels per day in September. A fourth source familiar with OPEC+ talks said discussions on volume were ongoing and the hike could be smaller. The U.S. Labor Department said the country added 73,000 jobs in July, lower than economists had forecast, raising the national unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.1%. "We can blame U.S. President Donald Trump with the tariffs or we can blame the Federal Reserve for not raising interest rates," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "It looks like the Fed misjudged their decision on Wednesday." On Wednesday, the Fed voted to keep interest rates unchanged, drawing criticism from Trump and a chorus of Republican legislators. Oil traders have focused for much of the week on the potential impact of U.S. tariffs, with tariff rates on U.S. trading partners largely set to take effect from next Friday. Trump signed an executive order on Thursday imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on U.S. imports from dozens of countries and foreign territories that failed to reach trade deals by his Aug. 1 deadline, including Canada, India and Taiwan. Partners that managed to secure trade agreements include the European Union, South Korea, Japan and Great Britain. "We think the resolution of trade deals to the satisfaction of the market – more or less, barring a few exceptions – has been the key driver for oil price bullishness in recent days," said Suvro Sarkar at DBS Bank. Prices were also supported this week by Trump's threats to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russian crude buyers as he seeks to pressure Russia into halting its war in Ukraine. This has stoked concern over potential disruption to oil trade flows and the removal of some oil from the market. On Thursday, JP Morgan analysts said Trump's threatened penalties on China and India over their purchases of Russian oil potentially put 2.75 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian seaborne oil exports at risk. China and India are the world's second and third-largest crude consumers respectively. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-2-barrel-worries-about-opec-supply-us-jobs-data-2025-08-01/