2025-08-01 13:20
NEW YORK, July 31 (Reuters) - U.S. job growth slower much more than expected in July, and the data from the prior month was revised sharply lower, indicating the labor market could be showing signs of stalling. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 jobs in July, after rising by a downwardly revised 14,000 in June, the Labor Department data showed on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 110,000 jobs added last month. Sign up here. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in the previous month. MARKET REACTION STOCKS: S&P E-minis briefly pared declines and were last down 1.05% BONDS: Treasury yields dropped, with the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note down 9.9 basis points at 4.261% and the two-year note yield down 18.2 basis points to 3.77% FOREX: The dollar weakened sharply, with the dollar index down 1.16% to 99.31 COMMENTS: HELEN GIVEN, DIRECTOR OF TRADING, MONEX USA, WASHINGTON: “It's worse than anyone expected and the kicker is that downward revision for the prior month too…that figure going from 147,000 to just 14,000, it's frankly pretty shocking.” “This is what Powell was emphasizing in his press conference on Wednesday. He did say on Wednesday that we were looking at holding rates steadier for longer, but that we were going to get two sets of employment data before the next Fed meeting. So as this first set has been so decidedly negative… the labor market is clearly, clearly cooling, that's going to raise the importance of that September figure as well.” “I still don't think it's likely that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, I think they might keep holding off if we get an August jobs report that's not that bad. They might hold off further, but we'll definitely see a cut in October, and I would say definitely again in December as well. So, we're going to see likely 50 basis points of easing this year, which is a market change in overnight swaps from yesterday.” JEFF SCHULZE, HEAD OF ECONOMIC AND MARKET STRATEGY, CLEARBRIDGE INVESTMENTS, NEW YORK (emailed comment) "The July jobs report officially confirms that the labor market has kicked into a lower gear after today’s headline miss coupled with negative revisions of -258k to the prior two months. Investors will need to recalibrate their views on what is the 'normal' pace of employment growth going forward given the headwinds of lower immigration, an aging demographic and the arrival of DOGE related layoffs. "This payroll report kicks the door wide open for a September rate cut. Although the effects of tariff pass-through still lie ahead, the Fed will not want to wait too long to begin its cutting cycle with the nonfarm payrolls flatlining at 35k on average over the past 3 months and the unemployment rate ticking higher. "While investors have been viewing the commencement of the Fed cutting cycle as a positive catalyst for risk assets, today’s release is best characterized as 'bad news is bad news' in our view. With job creation at stall speed levels and the tariff headwind lying ahead, there’s a strong possibility of a negative payroll print in the coming months which may conjure up fears of a recession. This print should pressure risk assets and cause safe haven buying in US treasuries.” JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VA (emailed comment) "Powell is going to regret holding rates steady this week. September is a lock for a rate cut and it might even be a 50-basis point move to make up the lost time." ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, BOSTON (emailed comment) "Today’s jobs report is unambiguously soft and a reflection of the trade and tariff impact on economic growth. Both the actual report and the big negative revisions are more evidence that the trade policy will slow growth. "What we know about our workforce population growth is that we need to create between 100 and 150 thousand jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate unchanged. That is down from a range of 150 to 200 thousand last year due to less immigration. The three-month average coming to today’s report was 150 thousand. The new three-month average of job creation is now 80 thousand. Not great news." SEEMA SHAH, CHIEF GLOBAL STRATEGIST, PRINCIPAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, LONDON (emailed comment) "Not only was this a much weaker than forecast payrolls number, the monster downward revisions to the past two months inflicts a major blow to the picture of labor market robustness. What’s more concerning is that with negative impact of tariffs only just starting to be felt, the coming months are likely to see even clearer evidence of a labor market slowdown. "Of course, with Powell emphasizing his focus on the unemployment rate which has only ticked up to 4.2%, perhaps it is too early to press the panic button. The shrinking of labor supply is somewhat offsetting the weakness in labor demand, keeping the labor market in an uneasy state of equilibrium. Even so, the sheer weakness of today’s payrolls number means that Powell will have to take notice. The odds of a September cut just took a big leap higher." CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, NORTHLIGHT ASSET MANAGEMENT, CHARLOTTE, NC (emailed comment): "Just two days after the conclusion of this month’s Fed meeting, suddenly the dual mandate is back on the table. With this morning’s payroll miss – and the downward revisions that came with it – the Fed will again need to balance a slowing job market with inflation which isn’t slowing fast enough. "The knee jerk reaction from markets is for interest rates to drop and stock futures to give up ground. While normally it would make sense to focus more on the 3-month moving average and not the headline number, both are in play today because of the -258,000 revision to prior months’ jobs numbers. "The stock market will probably move past this particular report and keep climbing this month, but today could be an ugly day in the market given the confluence of new tariff announcements and more evidence that the job market is slowing." BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN: "If Powell knew then what he knows now, maybe even he would have dissented from the decision to continue the rate cut pause. There’s no way to pretty-up this report. Previous months were revised significantly lower where the labor market has been on stall-speed. "History is repeating itself. Last year the Fed messed up by not cutting in July so they did a catch-up cut at their next meeting. They’ll likely have to do the same thing this year." https://www.reuters.com/business/view-us-job-growth-sharply-slows-july-unemployment-rate-ticks-higher-2025-08-01/
2025-08-01 12:52
NEW DELHI/MOSCOW, Aug 1 (Reuters) - At least two vessels loaded with Russian oil bound for refiners in India have diverted to other destinations following new U.S. sanctions, trade sources said, and LSEG trade flows showed. The U.S. Treasury Department this week imposed sanctions on more than 115 Iran-linked individuals, entities, and ships, some of which are involved in transporting Russian oil. Sign up here. U.S. President Donald Trump has urged countries to halt purchases of oil from Moscow, threatening 100% tariffs unless Russia agrees to a significant peace deal with Ukraine. Three ships - the Aframaxes Tagor and Guanyin and the Suezmax Tassos - were scheduled to deliver Russian oil to Indian ports this month, trade sources said. All three vessels are under U.S. sanctions. Tagor was bound for Chennai on India's east coast, while Guanyin and Tassos were headed to ports in western India, according to trade sources and Russian ports data. Tighter Western sanctions aimed at cutting Russia's oil revenue, seen as funding its war against Ukraine, have been increasingly hitting Russian oil supplies for India, which buys more than a third of its oil needs from Russia. Tagor is now heading to Dalian in China, while Tassos is diverting to Port Said in Egypt, the data shows. Guanyin remains on course to Sikka, a port used by Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) , opens new tab and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd. (BPCL.NS) , opens new tab. Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS) , opens new tab, which was to receive the Tagor shipment, and BPCL did not respond to Reuters' emailed requests for comment. Zulu Shipping, linked to Panama-flagged Tassos and Tagor, and Guanyin-owner Silver Tetra Marine could not be reached for comments. Both companies are under U.S. sanctions. A Reliance spokesperson said that "neither of these two vessels, Guanyin and Tassos, is coming to us". Reliance has previously purchased oil in Guanyin. Separately, two other vessels, Achilles and Elyte, loaded with Russian oil, are preparing to discharge Russian Urals for Reliance, according to LSEG data. Both these vessels are sanctioned by Britain and the European Union. India has condemned the EU sanctions. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-sanctions-force-vessels-with-russian-oil-divert-india-sources-say-2025-08-01/
2025-08-01 12:52
Aug 1 (Reuters) - Canadian oil producer Imperial Oil (IMO.TO) , opens new tab posted a fall in second-quarter profit on Friday, hurt by lower crude prices and a decline in refinery throughput. Benchmark Brent crude prices were lower during the April-June quarter compared to a year earlier, pressured by weak global demand, market volatility due to tariffs and increased oil supply from OPEC+. Sign up here. The Calgary, Alberta-based company's total throughput volumes, or the amount of crude processed, fell to 376,000 barrels per day during the second quarter, from 387,000 bpd a year ago. Refinery utilization stood at 87%, down from 89% in the same quarter last year. Imperial CEO John Whelan announced the start-up of a renewable diesel facility that will deliver lower-emission fuels to the Canadian transportation sector. The company said significant uncertainty exists regarding the effects that tariff-related actions could have on Imperial, its suppliers and its customers. It plans to monitor the global trade environment and work to mitigate potential impacts. However, upstream production for the April-June quarter was 427,000 gross barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), higher than the 404,000 gross boepd a year earlier. Imperial Oil is majority owned by U.S. oil and gas major ExxonMobil(XOM.N) , opens new tab, which beat analysts' estimates for quarterly profit earlier on Friday. The company said its net income fell to C$949 million ($684.31 million), or C$1.86 per share, in the quarter ended March 31, from C$1.13 billion, or C$2.11 per share, a year earlier. ($1 = 1.3868 Canadian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canadas-imperial-oil-posts-fall-quarterly-profit-lower-crude-prices-2025-08-01/
2025-08-01 12:41
Oil prices head for weekly gain US tariffs on dozens of countries take effect on August 1 Investors weigh impact from Trump threats over Russian oil LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Friday and heading for a weekly gain as investors weighed the impact of further importtariffsimposed by U.S. President Donald Trump and threats of sanctions. Brent crude futures were down 26 cents, or 0.36%, at $71.44 a barrel by 1212 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 18 cents, or 0.26%, at $69.08. Sign up here. Prices stabilised on Friday after losing more than 1% in the previous session, though Brent and WTI remained on course for weekly gains of 4.4% and 6% respectively. Investors have focused on the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on oil prices this week, with tariff rates on U.S. trading partners largely set to take effect from next Friday. Trump signed an executive order on Thursday imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on U.S. imports from dozens of countries and foreign territories that failed to reach trade deals by his August 1 deadline, including Canada, India and Taiwan. Partners that managed to secure trade deals include the European Union, South Korea, Japan and Britain. "We think the resolution of trade deals to the satisfaction of the market – more or less, barring a few exceptions – has been the key driver for oil price bullishness in recent days, and further progress on trade talks with China in future could be a further confidence booster for the oil market," said Suvro Sarkar at DBS Bank. Prices were also supported this week by Trump's threats to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russian crude buyers as he seeks to pressure Russia into halting its war in Ukraine. This has stoked concern over potential disruption to oil trade flows and the removal of some oil from the market. "It is not possible to completely replace Russian oil supplies in any case, which is why effective sanctions would lead to significantly higher oil prices," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. JP Morgan analysts said on Thursday that Trump's threatened penalties on China and India over their purchases of Russian oil potentially put 2.75 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian seaborne oil exports at risk. China and India are the world's second and third-largest crude consumers respectively. Some analysts, however, remain concerned that U.S. levies will limit economic growth by raising prices, which could weigh on oil demand. June inflation data on Thursday showed signs that existing tariffs are already pushing prices higher in the U.S., the world's biggest economy and oil consumer. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-investors-mull-us-tariff-impacts-2025-08-01/
2025-08-01 12:41
Aug 1 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas developer NextDecade Corp (NEXT.O) , opens new tab said on Friday it was targeting mid-September for a final investment decision on Train 5 of its Rio Grande LNG project in Texas. The move follows its first long-term offtake deal for the fifth train and the execution of an engineering, procurement and construction contract. Sign up here. NextDecade said it was working to contract an additional 2.5 million tonnes per annum under LNG supply deals to support Train 5. LNG developers typically reach a final investment decision on projects once they have secured enough supply deals to obtain the necessary financing for construction. NextDecade is also aiming final investment decision for Train 4 in the same timeframe, having secured 20-year LNG supply deals with Aramco (2223.SE) , opens new tab, TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab and ADNOC. "Phase 1 remains on schedule and on budget, and we are progressing Trains 4 and 5 quickly toward final investment decisions," NextDecade CEO Matt Schatzman said in a statement. As of June, Trains 1 and 2 and common facilities of the Rio Grande LNG facility were 48.3% complete, while Train 3 stood at 22.7%, the company said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nextdecade-sets-september-final-investment-decision-rio-grande-lng-train-5-2025-08-01/
2025-08-01 12:40
NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The dollar fell broadly on Friday after data showed that employers added fewer jobs in July than economists had expected, while the unemployment rate moved higher in line with expectations. Employers added 73,000 jobs last month, below the 100,000 expected by economists polled by Reuters. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2%, as anticipated, up from 4.1% in June. Sign up here. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.67% on the day at 99.35, with the euro up 0.8% at $1.1506. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.92% to 149.38. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-drops-employers-add-fewer-jobs-than-expected-july-2025-08-01/
