2025-07-31 04:39

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter We are now about halfway through the most action-packed part of the week. The eye of the storm, if you will. Sign up here. In case you have forgotten, today we are catching up on corporate earnings, key economic data releases, several central bank interest rate decisions, and all the latest twists and turns in trade negotiations before new U.S. tariffs kick in on Friday. Hot off the presses: The yen appreciated 0.6% immediately after the Bank of Japan kept rates on hold as widely expected. Markets are focused on an upwards revision in inflation forecasts, with Governor Ueda due to speak shortly as traders anticipate rate hikes may be back on the agenda this year. With second-quarter earnings season halfway complete, Nasdaq futures ripped 1.3% higher after blow-out earnings from Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab and Meta Platforms (META.O) , opens new tab. The U.S. dollar held steady after hitting a two-month high, on track to tally its first monthly gain all year. "It has been a great earnings season so far, and that's the primary reason why U.S. stocks continue to do well, but the full brunt of the tariffs hasn't been felt," said David Chao, global market strategist for Asia-Pacific at Invesco in Singapore. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab fell 0.7%, though it was still on track for its fourth consecutive monthly increase. Stocks in Hong Kong (.HSI) , opens new tab led declines, down 1.1% after official PMI gauges showed weaker-than-expected activity during July. Copper futures plunged 19.4% after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper. The Korean won appreciated 0.1% after Trump said the U.S. will charge a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea. The Asian country will invest $350 billion in U.S. projects and purchase $100 billion in U.S. energy products. The announcement is the latest in a series of trade policy deals rushed out before the August 1 deadline that Trump set for trade deals before the U.S. imposes what he called Liberation Day tariffs. Trump also issued a blitz of tariff announcements ranging from goods from Brazil to small-value shipments from overseas. In early European trades, pan-region futures were up 0.2%, German DAX futures were up 0.2% and FTSE futures were up 0.1% ahead of another flurry of earnings and inflation data. Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here. https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-view-europe-2025-07-31/

2025-07-31 02:40

MUMBAI, July 31 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is set to open weaker on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a 25% levy on Indian exports before adding that negotiations between the two countries are still ongoing. Traders reckon that the Reserve Bank of India may step in to limit the rupee's losses as the currency moves closer to its all-time low of 87.95 hit earlier this year. Sign up here. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open in the 87.66-87.69 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with 87.42 in the previous session. Trump's threatened 25% levy on Indian goods, in addition to an unspecified penalty for buying Russian oil and involvement in the BRICS group, may strain relationships between the world's largest economy and the most populous democracy. "We're talking to India now - we'll see what happens ... You'll know by the end of this week," Trump told reporters after announcing the tariff on a social media post. India's equity benchmarks were poised to open weaker on the day with analysts pointing out that all eyes will now be on how negotiations progress. "We expect more drama to unfold in coming days and the rupee, therefore, could see major gyrations," said Abhishek Goenka, chief executive at FX advisory firm IFA Global. "We may see the RBI step in to curb volatility and smoothen (INR) depreciation," he added. The rupee has declined 2% so far this year and is among the worst performing regional currencies, pressured by uncertainty on trade policies and persistent foreign outflows from local equities. Overseas investors have net sold about $2 billion of local stocks over July so far, and analysts reckon that negative cues on trade could keep up the pressure. Elsewhere, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept policy rates unchanged on Wednesday and gave little indication of when rates may be cut again. The dollar index rose nearly 1% and was last quoted at 99.7. Given the negative cues, the central bank would "most likely need to stay active," a Singapore-based trader at a bank said. The trader pointed out that price-action indicated that the RBI had likely stepped into the non-deliverable forwards market as well to support the rupee overnight. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 87.81; onshore one-month forward premium at 13.75 paise ** Dollar index at 99.74 ** Brent crude futures down 0.2% at $73.1 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.36% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $425.2mln worth of Indian shares on Jul. 29 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $4.6mln worth of Indian bonds on Jul. 29 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/trumps-tariff-threat-puts-rupee-firing-line-traders-reckon-rbi-may-step-2025-07-31/

2025-07-31 02:03

TOKYO, July 31 (Reuters) - Japan logged a record surplus of $36 billion from a special government account for foreign exchange reserves in the last fiscal year through March, thanks to solid returns on foreign assets which were amplified by a weaker yen. The surplus from the special account, which manages foreign exchange reserves for currency market interventions, totalled 5.4 trillion yen ($36.18 billion), up 38% from the previous year, the Finance Ministry said on Thursday. Sign up here. The robust returns reflected a wide gap in interest rates on cheap yen-denominated debt and high-yielding foreign securities holdings, most of which are believed to be U.S. Treasuries bought during bouts of dollar-buying intervention when the yen was strong. The yen's depreciation also boosted the value of foreign reserves in yen terms. The government is allocating 3.2 trillion of the surplus to the general budget account for the current fiscal year - a third of which would be spent on defence. The special account is used to partially fund state-owned Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), which will provide loans and equity for Japan's $550 billion investment package agreed in the U.S. tariff deal. ($1 = 149.2700 yen) https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-fx-reserve-account-reaps-record-surplus-fy2024-2025-07-31/

2025-07-31 01:55

Seoul, July 31 (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) , opens new tab said on Thursday that the South Korea-U.S. trade deal would reduce uncertainty. The comments were made during its quarterly earnings conference call. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/samsung-electronics-says-korea-us-trade-deal-reduces-uncertainty-2025-07-31/

2025-07-31 00:49

TOKYO, July 31 (Reuters) - Oil prices gained for a fourth straight day on Thursday, as investors worried about supply shortages amid U.S. President Donald Trump's push for a swift resolution to the war in Ukraine and threats of tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. Brent crude futures for September delivery , which are set to expire on Thursday, rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.51 a barrel by 0028 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September gained 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $70.37 a barrel. Sign up here. Both benchmarks settled 1% higher on Wednesday. The more active Brent October contract was up 29 cents, or 0.4%, at $72.76. "Concerns that secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian crude will tighten supplies continue to drive buying interest," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities. On Tuesday, Trump said he would start imposing measures on Russia, including 100% secondary tariffs on its trading partners, if it did not make progress on ending the war within 10-12 days, moving up an earlier 50-day deadline. Trump said on Wednesday the United States is still negotiating with India on trade after announcing earlier in the day the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the country starting on Friday. The U.S. has also warned China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, that it could face huge tariffs if it kept buying. On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions on over 115 Iran-linked individuals, entities and vessels, in a sign the Trump administration is doubling down on its "maximum pressure" campaign after bombing Tehran's key nuclear sites in June. China is the top buyer of Iran's oil. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 7.7 million barrels in the week ending July 25 to 426.7 million barrels, driven by lower exports, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts had expected a 1.3 million-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels to 228.4 million barrels, far exceeding forecasts for a 600,000-barrel draw. "U.S. inventory data showed a larger-than-expected build in crude stocks, but a bigger-than-expected gasoline draw supported the view of strong driving season demand, resulting in a neutral impact on oil market," Fujitomi Securities' Tazawa said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-gain-fourth-day-supply-fears-trump-tariff-threats-2025-07-31/

2025-07-31 00:34

Trump to impose penalty on India over Russian dealings, BRICS New tariffs threaten trade talks, partnership against China India says it's committed to reaching fair trade deal with US WASHINGTON/NEW DELHI, July 30 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the United States is still negotiating with India on trade after announcing earlier in the day the U.S. would impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the country starting on Friday. The 25% tariff, as well as an unspecified penalty announced by Trump in a morning social media post, would strain relations with the world's most populous democracy. Sign up here. Later at the White House, the Republican president indicated there was wiggle room. "They have one of the highest tariffs in the world now, they're willing to cut it very substantially," Trump told reporters. "We're talking to India now - we'll see what happens ... You'll know by the end of this week." The 25% figure would single out India more severely than other major trading partners, and threaten to unravel months of talks between the two countries, undermining a strategic partner of Washington's and a counterbalance to China. What the penalty would be was not clear. Trump indicated initially, in a post on the Truth Social website, that the penalty was a response to India buying Russian arms and oil and its "obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers." When asked about the penalty later at the White House, he said it was partly due to trade issues and partly because of India's involvement in the BRICS group of developing nations, which he described as hostile to the U.S. In July, Trump said the U.S. will impose an additional 10% tariff on imports from any countries aligning themselves with the "Anti-American policies" of the BRICS. The India announcement came as countries face a Friday deadline to reach deals on reciprocal tariffs or have a Trump-imposed tariff slapped on their exports. The White House launched a blizzard of other trade policy announcements on Wednesday. EARLY WARNING The White House had previously warned India about its high average applied tariffs - nearly 39% on agricultural products - with rates climbing to 45% on vegetable oils and around 50% on apples and corn. "While India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high," Trump wrote in the Truth Social post. "They have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE — ALL THINGS NOT GOOD!" In response to his Truth Social post, the Indian government said it was studying the implications of Trump's announcements and remained dedicated to securing a fair trade deal. "India and the U.S. have been engaged in negotiations on concluding a fair, balanced and mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreement over the last few months. We remain committed to that objective," it said. Russia continued to be the top oil supplier to India during the first six months of 2025, making up 35% of overall supplies. The United States, the world's largest economy, currently has a $45.7 billion trade deficit with India, the fifth largest. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Trump has been frustrated with the progress of trade talks with India and believed the 25% tariff announcement would help the situation. The new U.S. tax on imports from India would be higher than on many other countries that struck deals with the Trump administration recently. The tariff on Vietnamese exports is set at 20% and Indonesia's at 19%, while the levy for Japanese and European Union exports is 15%. "This is a major setback for Indian exporters, especially in sectors like textiles, footwear, and furniture, as the 25% tariff will render them uncompetitive against rivals from Vietnam and China," said S.C. Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations. CONTENTIOUS ISSUES U.S. and Indian negotiators have held multiple rounds of discussions to resolve contentious issues, particularly over market access into India for U.S. agricultural and dairy products. In its latest statement, India said it attached the utmost importance to protecting and promoting the welfare of its farmers, entrepreneurs, and small businesses. "The government will take all steps necessary to secure our national interest, as has been the case with other trade agreements," it said. The setback comes despite earlier commitments by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump to conclude the first phase of a trade deal by autumn and expand bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, from $191 billion in 2024. On Wednesday, Trump also said he had made a deal with India's arch South Asian rival Pakistan to develop that country's oil reserves. "Who knows, maybe they'll be selling Oil to India some day," Trump wrote on Truth Social. Since India's short but deadly conflict with Pakistan, New Delhi has been unhappy about Trump's closeness with Islamabad and has protested, which has cast a shadow over trade talks. "Politically, the relationship is in its toughest spot since the mid-1990s," said Ashok Malik, partner at advisory firm The Asia Group. "Trust has diminished. President Trump's messaging has damaged many years of careful, bipartisan nurturing of the U.S.-India partnership in both capitals." Besides farm products access, the U.S. had flagged concerns over India's increasingly burdensome import-quality requirements, among its many non-tariff barriers to foreign trade, in a report released in March. The new tariffs will impact Indian goods exports to the U.S., estimated at around $87 billion in 2024, including labor-intensive products, such as garments, pharmaceuticals, gems and jewelry, and petrochemicals. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/trump-says-us-india-still-negotiating-after-25-us-tariff-threat-2025-07-30/