2025-12-02 12:39
Rouble will remain strong, economy minister says Export-oriented firms may suffer losses The government will review exchange rate forecasts in April Officials urge companies to adjust to stronger rouble MOSCOW, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble will be stronger than previously expected, which represents a challenge for the economy, with several major export-oriented mega projects potentially suffering losses, top Russian officials said on Tuesday. The rouble has rallied by over 46% since the start of the year due to the central bank's tight monetary policy and expectations for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, following the start of U.S.-Russia negotiations in February. Sign up here. A strong rouble hits revenues of major Russian commodity firms, which make up the backbone of the country's economy, exporting oil, gas, metals and grains, and also helping to fill the state coffers with their taxes. Most analysts and businessmen expected the rouble to weaken, arguing that the Russian currency's fair value was around 100 to the U.S. dollar, compared to the current level of 77.5 to the dollar. Such expectations have so far failed to materialise. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov told the "Russia Calling" investment conference that due to weak imports and weak capital outflows, the stronger rouble was expected to stay, and companies had no choice but to adjust to it. "Strategically, the exchange rate will be stronger than it seemed to us one or two years ago," Reshetnikov said. The government changed its forecast for the average rouble rate in 2026 from 100.2 to the dollar to 92.2 last September. LIVE WITH NEW REALITIES Reshetnikov said that the government's policy of import substitution, which was introduced to counter Western sanctions and replace equipment and machinery previously imported from the West, was also working to strengthen the rouble. "We will have to live with these new realities," Reshetnikov added, stressing that several large export-oriented projects under development with support from the government targeted export volumes of up to $70 billion. He said that some of these exports would not be profitable at the stronger exchange rate of the rouble and would have to be abandoned. Reshetnikov said that several mega projects could be affected such as Sibur's Amur gas and chemicals plant in the Far East, Gazprom's gas processing plant in Ust Luga on the Baltic Sea, and billionaire Alisher Usmanov's Udokan Copper project. "Some enterprises are expecting that they just need to wait a little longer and by some miracle the exchange rate will weaken. This strategy is no longer working," Reshetnikov said. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said that the share of the rouble in payments for Russian exports has reached 57% this year, compared to only 14% in 2021. The rouble's share in payments for imports was 55%, she said. CRYPTOCURRENCY MINING UNDERMINES FOREIGN CURRENCY DEMAND The rouble's rate to the dollar is determined through an opaque over-the-counter trade between banks. Speaking to Reuters this week, Andrei Kostin, CEO of Russia's second-largest bank VTB, said the current rate suited neither exporters nor the government. "Demand for foreign currency has fallen for everyone, even ordinary people have stopped saving in dollars," he said. President Vladimir Putin's economy aide Maxim Oreshkin said that mining of cryptocurrencies was one of the factors behind the falling demand for foreign currencies since cryptocurrencies could be used to pay for some imports. He said that several government decisions, limiting imports, such as an increase in scrappage fees for foreign-made cars or a clampdown on gray imports going through the Central Asian states, also played a role. Oreshkin said that foreign investors were gradually finding ways to invest in high-yielding Russian assets, such as government bonds with yields around 13%, contributing to an inflow of capital, which supported the rouble. "If the government believes that it needs a weaker rouble for some reason, it needs to carry out an aggressive policy to increase imports. Right now I don't see it from the government," Oreshkin said. https://www.reuters.com/business/russian-economy-will-have-live-with-stronger-rouble-economy-minister-says-2025-12-02/
2025-12-02 12:25
JAKARTA, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The number of people killed by floods and landslides on Indonesia's Sumatra island rose to 708 on Tuesday, the disaster agency said, as authorities rushed to repair infrastructure and deliver aid to cut-off areas. The agency in a press conference late on Tuesday said 708 people had been killed since last week, a figure lower than the 753 reported on its website earlier in the day. It did not give a reason for the discrepancy. Sign up here. Close to 900 people have been killed in floods and landslides that have wreaked havoc in Indonesia, and , which follow months of adverse and deadly weather in Southeast Asia, including successive typhoons that struck the Philippines and Vietnam and added to frequent and prolonged flooding elsewhere. Environmental experts and local officials have said deforestation on Sumatra has led to a disproportionately deadly toll The Indonesian disaster agency said teams were prioritising distributing aid via land, sea and air, clearing blocked roads and repairing damaged infrastructure. "We do hope that we can speed up the logistics distribution," spokesperson Abdul Muhari said. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/death-toll-indonesias-floods-landslide-hits-753-disaster-agency-says-2025-12-02/
2025-12-02 12:04
Dec 2 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. Last month showed that 'buy the dip' stock market behavior is alive and well, but Wall Street has yet to regain early November peaks and tariff angst is proving hard to shake. The final month of the year is off to a bumpy start. U.S. manufacturers registered an ongoing contraction of activity as input price growth turned higher again from already elevated levels, with tariffs widely blamed. ISM's November factory readout was enough to lift Treasury yields sharply across the curve on Monday and sowed a kernel of doubt about this month's widely expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut. A third Fed cut of the year on December 10 had been almost fully priced prior to the report, but the chances of a move have been pared back slightly to just over 80%. Fed policymakers are in their traditional quiet period ahead of the meeting, so no more public guidance is expected before then. But the ISM report re-introduced the tariff question. With the Supreme Court yet to rule on the legality of President Donald Trump's use of emergency powers to introduce the levies, retailers too were emphasizing the pressure. Costco became the latest firm to sue the U.S. government to ensure it will receive refunds if the Supreme Court rejects Trump's sweeping authority to impose those tariffs. The discomfort spread to stock and bond markets on Monday, with the S&P 500 falling back about 0.5% - irked additionally by the ongoing shakeout in crypto markets. Bitcoin lost more than 5% on Monday, relapsing back below $90,000 before steadying earlier today, and crypto stocks were hit too. Firmer crude oil prices also weighed after the weekend decision from OPEC+ to keep output levels unchanged early next year. But with Tuesday's calendar thin, world markets have calmed somewhat before today's bell. U.S. stock index futures crept back higher, with European stocks higher too. South Korea's Kospi benchmark outperformed again with gains of almost 2%. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Monday confirmed the general tariff rate on imports from South Korea, including on autos, would drop to 15% from last month because South Korea has introduced legislation in parliament to implement the country's strategic U.S. investment commitments. Japan's Nikkei also held the line after a heavy loss there on Monday on stepped up speculation about a Bank of Japan interest rate rise this month. Japanese government bond yields and the yen eased back a bit after a decent 10-year debt auction there. There was better news from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which lifted its U.S. economic growth forecasts for this year and next to 2.0% and 1.7% respectively. It also nudged up euro zone forecasts, but said global trade growth would almost halve to 2.3% in 2026 due to tariffs. Euro zone inflation for November, meantime, came in a touch above expectations at 2.2% In Britain, the Bank of England cut the amount of capital it estimates lenders need to hold in a bid to boost lending and stimulate the economy, in what will be its first reduction to bank capital demands since the global financial crisis. The major UK bank stocks rose about 1%. In Tuesday's column, I take a look at the mostly bullish market calls for 2026 , opens new tab and explore a peculiar phenomenon at the heart of many of them. Today's Market Minute Chart of the day U.S. manufacturing contracted for the ninth straight month in November, with factories facing slumping orders and higher prices for inputs as the drag from import tariffs persisted. Today's events to watch * Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman testifies to the House Financial Services Committee on financial regulation; Bank of England policymaker Swati Dhingra speaks * U.S. corporate earnings: CrowdStrike, Gitlab Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-12-02/
2025-12-02 12:02
Citi's lead was stored with Grafton under a rent deal, sources Grafton was recently bought by Trafigura Citi looking at Taiwan and Malaysia LONDON, Dec 2 - Citigroup will move most of its lead stocks from Singapore to Malaysia or Taiwan at an estimated cost of $5 million due to limited storage space and a lack of lucrative rent deals, three sources said, three sources familiar with the matter said. The U.S. bank's (C.N) , opens new tab lead was stored with Grafton Logistic Services under a rent deal, but after commodity trader Trafigura bought the warehousing company Citi decided to withdraw its stocks of the battery metal and look for rent deals elsewhere. Sign up here. Under lucrative rent deals, London Metal Exchange approved warehouses share rental income with companies that deliver metal to them. On October 9, Citi cancelled or earmarked for delivery nearly 112,000 metric tons of lead in London Metal Exchange approved warehouses in Singapore, the sources said. As of November 28 more than 90,000 tons of the battery metal had left LME storage facilities in Singapore. Citi plans to keep about 24,000 tons in Singapore, while 88,000 tons will likely go to Taiwan or Malaysia, two sources familiar with the matter said. Citi declined to comment. Citi declined to comment. Shipping costs include freight, handling and LME warehouse fees for loading the metal onto a truck known as free-on-truck. Companies that take delivery of metal pay FOT while those putting metal into storage receive FOT. Taking metal from LME storage facilities in Singapore will cost Citi S$68.50 or about $53 a ton while delivering to warehouses in Malaysia would earn the bank 162.50 ringgit or around $39 a ton. FOT for Taiwan is T$1,455 or about $46. Shipping is estimated at $50 a ton for Taiwan and $40 for Malaysia, the sources said, bringing the total cost for 88,000 tons close to $5 million. Citi traders have in previously used rent agreements for aluminium and zinc in LME warehouses. Companies that deliver metal do not have to retain ownership but they get a share of the rent as long as the metal stays in the warehouse. Fees are paid by the new owners of the metal. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/citigroup-faces-5-million-bill-transport-its-lead-singapore-sources-say-2025-12-02/
2025-12-02 11:37
India's Russian oil imports to hit 3-year low amid sanctions Russia says trade must be safe from third-country pressures Payment methods to figure in talks during Putin's India visit NEW DELHI, Dec 2 (Reuters) - India's imports of Russian oil may decline for only "a brief period" as Moscow plans to boost supplies, using sophisticated technology to avert the impact of Western sanctions, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday. His remarks came ahead of President Vladimir Putin's two-day visit to New Delhi from Thursday, looking to restore defence and energy ties as the South Asian nation is set to trim its Russian oil purchases this month to at least a three-year low. Sign up here. Russia's top buyer of seaborne oil, India has cut crude imports from Moscow under pressure from Western sanctions, particularly by Washington on Moscow's top oil producers Rosneft (ROSN.MM) , opens new tab and Lukoil (LKOH.MM) , opens new tab. "There can be, for a very brief period of time, insignificant decreases in the volume of oil trade," Peskov told Indian journalists, in response to a question about the impact of sanctions. WORKING TO BUILD THE NECESSARY ENVIRONMENT FOR BUYERS Russia is the top oil supplier to India, the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer. Moscow is working to build the "necessary environment" for buyers who seek its oil, Peskov said, speaking by video link organised by Russia's Sputnik news agency. "We have deep experience in performing under regime of these illegal sanctions," Peskov added. "We have our own technologies in doing that. We will continue to make those technologies more sophisticated should this practice of sanctions continue." Trade between Russia and India should be secured from pressure from third countries, he said, adding that payment methods would feature in the leaders' talks. ACTIVITIES OF INDIAN REFINERS Indian refiners, such as Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL.NS) , opens new tab, Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL.NS) , opens new tab and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, have stopped buying Russian oil. State-run Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS) , opens new tab has placed orders to buy Russian oil from non-sanctioned entities, while Bharat Petroleum Corp is in an advanced stage of negotiations for Russian oil imports. Russia-backed Indian refiner Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft, is exclusively processing Russian oil after other suppliers pulled back, following British and EU sanctions. Russia wants India to continue to provide support to Nayara to boost its local sale and capacity use. Reliance Industries Ltd (RELI.NS) , opens new tab, formerly Russia's top Indian client, has said it loaded Russian oil cargoes "precommitted" by October 22, and will process any arriving after November 20 at its refinery geared to domestic supply. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/decline-indias-russian-oil-imports-may-be-temporary-kremlin-says-2025-12-02/
2025-12-02 11:35
GDP rises 0.5% q/q, less than Q2's 0.9% rate Mining performed well, factory output slowed Fixed investment rises after three quarters of decline PRETORIA, Dec 2 (Reuters) - South Africa's economic growth slowed in the third quarter of 2025 as expected, but analysts heralded a pickup in fixed investment for the first time in a year as a bright spot that could lift the future growth rate if sustained. Africa's biggest economy grew 0.5% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, in line with the median forecast of analysts polled by Reuters but slower than revised second-quarter growth of 0.9%. Sign up here. Nine of the 10 sectors tracked by Statistics South Africa recorded higher output, with mining and agriculture performing well , opens new tab though manufacturing production slowed and electricity, gas and water output contracted. The economy has struggled to build momentum over the past decade, with annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging less than 1%. This year the picture has started to brighten, as investors have piled into South African stocks and bonds on signs of fiscal discipline and a decision to lower the country's inflation target. The National Treasury forecasts a slight pickup in growth this year and next, to 1.2% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Investments in transport equipment mainly drove the 1.6% increase in gross fixed capital formation - spending on fixed assets like machinery - in the third quarter. Elna Moolman, head of South Africa macroeconomic research at Standard Bank, said though this increase was mainly driven by government spending, it was a positive sign that showed the economy had good prospects of accelerating in coming years. In year-on-year terms, GDP expanded 2.1% in the third quarter, better than economists' forecasts for 1.8% growth (ZAGDPY=ECI) , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africas-third-quarter-gdp-rises-05-qq-2025-12-02/
