2025-07-29 11:26
July 29 (Reuters) - Union Pacific (UNP.N) , opens new tab said on Tuesday it would buy smaller rival Norfolk Southern (NSC.N) , opens new tab in an $85-billion deal to create the country's first coast-to-coast freight rail operator. Such mergers have historically reshaped the rail map, consolidating regional carriers into some dominant networks, but often come under intense scrutiny from the Surface Transportation Board. Sign up here. Landmark mergers in the past - such as the creation of BNSF and between Union Pacific and Southern Pacific - have set the stage for today's concentrated rail network, often triggering both operational gains and regulatory pushback. Here are some of the largest railroad deals in the past three decades: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/major-rail-mergers-that-reshaped-us-freight-network-2025-07-29/
2025-07-29 11:15
LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - The pound fell to a 10-week low against a stronger dollar on Tuesday, while staying just off a two-year low against the euro, as markets continue to digest the announcement of the trade deal between the European Union and the United States. The pound was last a touch higher against the dollar at $1.33570, but had earlier fallen to $1.3316, its lowest level since May 23. Sign up here. The dollar was broadly stronger on Tuesday, continuing a rally after Sunday's news that the United States and the EU struck a framework trade pact, the latest in a flurry of deals to avert a global trade war. Investors are also looking ahead to a U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meeting this week. The euro slid 0.1% against the pound to 86.71 pence, coming off a two-year high of 87.44 hit on Monday when the euro fell 0.78% against sterling , its largest one-day drop since mid-April. "That reflected positioning," said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, of Monday's fall in euro/sterling. Money markets show that traders believe the European Central Bank is probably closer to the end of its rate-cutting cycle than the Bank of England, which would favour the euro over sterling. In addition, the fiscal outlook in the euro zone appears healthier than that of the UK, where the government may be forced to raise taxes or borrow more this year. "Those two opposing stories have made euro/sterling quite a popular trade, and part of that unwound in a bit of hurry yesterday," said Turner. The fact that Britain secured a deal for a 10% tariff compared with the EU's deal for a 15% rate could be giving sterling a boost against the euro, he said. A survey on Tuesday showed British shop prices rose by the most in more than a year in the 12 months to July and food prices grew more strongly, adding to other inflation signals and underscores the BoE's interest rate dilemma. Last week soft British retail sales and business activity data weighed on the pound. Elsewhere, data showed British lenders approved more mortgages than expected last month, adding to signs that the housing market has recovered from a dip after the expiry of a tax break for home buyers, and consumers also upped their borrowing, data showed on Tuesday. "Overall, today’s money and credit data give a tentative sign of consumer spending picking up a little, and of business sentiment improving, however, growth will still be weak in Q2. For now, the MPC is likely to focus on that weaker growth outlook, meaning a rate cut in August is the odds-on bet," said Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/pound-10-week-low-against-dollar-after-us-eu-trade-deal-2025-07-29/
2025-07-29 11:13
July 29 (Reuters) - Futures tied to Canada's main stock index rose on Tuesday, tracking gains in gold and energy prices, while investors assessed corporate earnings and awaited trade deals with the U.S. ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline. Futures on the S&P/TSX index were up 0.5% at 1,638.50 points by 06:18 a.m. ET (1018 GMT). The benchmark closed lower on Monday. Sign up here. A much-anticipated European Union-U.S. trade agreement was announced on Sunday. However, the initial relief over Europe's 15% levy on exports to the U.S. quickly soured when set against the 1% to 2% that stood before U.S. President Donald Trump took office. Gold and oil prices edged up as initial euphoria over the U.S.-EU trade truce faded, while copper prices slipped on Tuesday. Trump also flagged a "world tariff" rate of 15% to 20% on Monday, for countries that were not negotiating a deal, among the highest rates since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Also on Monday, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada-U.S. trade talks were in an intense phase and reiterated that an agreement without any tariffs at all was unlikely. In corporate news, Canadian retailer George Weston (WN.TO) , opens new tab reported second-quarter revenue above estimates and announced a stock split. FOR CANADIAN MARKETS NEWS, CLICK ON CODES: TSX market report Canadian dollar and bonds report CA/ Reuters global stocks poll for Canada , Canadian markets directory https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gold-oil-lift-tsx-futures-focus-shifts-trade-deals-2025-07-29/
2025-07-29 10:43
CAIRO, July 29 (Reuters) - Egypt's economy likely grew 4.0% in the fiscal year that ended in June, a slight upward revision from the 3.8% forecast in April, a Reuters poll showed, as reforms tied to IMF financing and stronger manufacturing activity support a gradual recovery. Growth in gross domestic product was projected to accelerate to 4.6% this fiscal year, according to the median estimate of 13 economists surveyed July 15-28. Sign up here. The Arab world's most populous country has been struggling with the aftermath of a sharp currency devaluation, soaring inflation and the economic fallout from the war in Gaza. Growth slumped to 2.4% in 2023/24 but the government has since accelerated economic reforms under an $8 billion programme with the International Monetary Fund and secured $24 billion in investment from the United Arab Emirates' sovereign wealth fund, including a major land deal on the Mediterranean coast. Inflation, which peaked at a record 38% in September 2023, has begun to ease but remains high. Egypt's annual urban consumer price inflation slowed to 14.9% in June from 16.8% in May. Economists expect average headline inflation to moderate to 12.5% in 2025/26, 9.5% in 2026/27, and 7.3% in 2027/28 - still above the central bank's target of between 5% and 9% on average by Q4 2026. Under its IMF-backed reform agenda, Egypt has pledged to phase out energy subsidies, particularly on fuel - although this could keep inflationary pressures elevated in the near term. The Egyptian pound, which was floated in March 2024 after being fixed at around 30.85 to the dollar for over a year, is expected to weaken further. The currency is projected to fall to 51.1 per dollar by the end of June 2026 and 52.9 by June 2027. It currently trades at around 48.6 on the interbank market. Interest rates are also expected to ease gradually, the poll found. The Central Bank of Egypt's overnight lending rate, now at 25.0%, is forecast to decline to 17.5% by end-2025/26 and to 13.0% the following year. The central bank cut its benchmark rate by a cumulative 325 basis points in April and May, citing slowing inflation and improved foreign exchange liquidity. However, in July, policymakers signalled a more cautious stance as oil price volatility, driven by supply-side risks and global demand uncertainty, prompted a "wait-and-see" approach to the monetary easing cycle. (Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/egypts-growth-outlook-improves-slightly-reforms-take-root-2025-07-29/
2025-07-29 10:36
LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. The dollar (.DXY) , opens new tab is on course for its best week of the year, as unfolding U.S. trade deals are succeeding in raising tariffs without attracting much retaliation or causing major economic damage so far. A weekend agreement by the European Union to accept a 15% U.S. tariff hike, with promises of hefty spending on U.S. energy and arms to boot, saw the dollar notch its best day since May against the euro. Sustained dollar gains are a mixed blessing for Wall Street stocks and for President Donald Trump's administration, as it sees dollar depreciation as an integral part of tackling trade deficits and boosting competitiveness. I’ll review today’s market news and then look at whether the dollar's considerable tariff risk premium may be dissipating as trade deals get done. * The dollar rebound comes as the Federal Reserve starts its two-day policy meeting, though with no change in rates expected this week as eyes drift to its September gathering instead. A big week for labor market data kicks off with the release of U.S. June job openings, and then we’ll see June goods trade, which will figure into the week's second-quarter U.S. GDP report. * In the thick of the corporate earnings season - with four big tech megacaps reporting this week and the likes of UPS, Merck and Boeing out later today - Wall Street indexes eked out new records on Monday. U.S. futures were positive again ahead of Tuesday's bell, with European and Chinese stocks rebounding too and only Japan bucking the trend. * Treasury markets were steady after hefty debt auctions on Monday. The Treasury announced plans to borrow $1.007 trillion in the third quarter, largely in line with forecasts though likely frontloaded with bill sales. Details of the quarterly refunding will be released on Wednesday. Along with the Fed meeting, bonds kept a close eye on higher crude oil prices after Trump set a new deadline of "10 or 12 days" for Russia to make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine or face more sanctions on both Moscow and buyers of its oil exports. Today's Market Minute * U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators met for a second day of talks in Stockholm to defuse the bilateral trade war between the world's two biggest economies. The meetings are expected to agree another 90-day extension of a tariff truce struck in mid-May. * South Korea's Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said he would seek a mutually beneficial trade deal when he meets U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for talks this week. * U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly shortened his deadline for hitting Russia with the most severe sanctions on its oil exports to date. While the market has called the president’s bluff thus far, the sheer scale of the threat may force investors to start pricing in this meaningful tail risk, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso. * The earnings season is ramping up, and investors are once again focusing on whether companies will beat or miss expectations. However, Panmure Liberum investment strategist Joachim Klement claims the major driver of share prices can be found in the bond market. * As investors brace for the busiest week of the U.S. earnings season, debate is picking up again about the ‘Mag 7’ influence over U.S. equity indexes and whether we could be seeing the beginnings of true market broadening. Read the latest from ROI columnist Jamie McGeever. Chart of the day Dollar selling has abated in recent weeks, but the weekend U.S.-EU trade deal has catapulted it higher across the board as investors start to remove a tariff risk premium dogging the currency all year. The dollar's DXY index surged more than 1% on Monday, its biggest one day gain in more than two months, and has added to that on Tuesday. After just two days, it's on course for its best week of the year. Today's events to watch * U.S. June goods trade balance (8:30ED AM T), June retail/wholesale inventories (8:30 AM EDT) May house prices (9:00 AM EDT), July consumer confidence (10:00 AM EDT) June JOLTS job openings data (3:00 PM EDT) Dallas Federal Reserve July service sector survey (3:30 PM EDT) * International Monetary Fund releases its update World Economic Outlook (9:00 AM EDT) * U.S. and Chinese negotiators meet for a second day in Stockholm * Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee starts its two-day meeting on interest rates, decision Wednesday * U.S. corporate earnings: UPS, Merck, Boeing, PayPal, Starbucks, Visa, Corning, UnitedHealth, Procter & Gamble, Stanley Black & Decker, Sysco, Incyte, Norfolk Southern, Booking, Ecolab, Carrier, PPG, Regency Centers, Caesars, Royal Caribbean, American Tower, CBRE, Teradyne, Mondelez, BXP, Seagate, DTE * U.S. Treasury sells $44 billion of 7-year notes, $30 billion of 2-year floating rate notes Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-07-29/
2025-07-29 10:32
Euro steady for now after retreat Wall St futures edge up before Fed, mega cap earnings Analysts warn tariffs a drag for EU and US economies Oil holds gains after Trump shortens Russia deadline LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - World shares were mixed on Tuesday, as a lift from European earnings was offset by lower Asian markets, while the U.S.-EU trade deal brought home to investors the prospect that punishing tariffs might erode growth and spur inflation. The initial relief over Europe's 15% levy dissipated when considered against the 1% to 2% tariff the continent had faced prior to U.S. President Donald Trump taking office. Sign up here. Still, European earnings helped stocks rebound on Tuesday after falling a day earlier as leaders in France and Germany lamented the trade deal outcome as potentially being a drag on growth. Trump also flagged a "world tariff" rate of 15% to 20% on all trading partners that were not negotiating a deal, among the highest rates since the Great Depression of the 1930s. "While the worst case scenario was averted, the implied EU tariff increase from 1% in January is a significant tax increase on EU exports," wrote economists from JPMorgan in a note. "This is a very big shock that unwinds a century of U.S. leadership in global free trade," they said. "While we no longer see a U.S. recession as our baseline from this shock, the risk is still elevated at 40%." A further risk to world growth came from a sudden spike in oil prices after Trump threatened a new deadline of 10 or 12 days for Russia to make progress toward ending the war in Ukraine or face tougher sanctions on oil exports. An air of caution saw MSCI's broadest index of world shares (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab tick down about 0.1%. European shares recovered after Monday's sell-off. Europe's broad STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab was up 0.6%, helped by some positive reactions to quarterly earnings. French (.FCHI) , opens new tab and German (.GDAXI) , opens new tab stock indexes rose over 1%. China stocks ended higher on Tuesday as a new round of Sino-U.S. trade talks continued while Japan's Nikkei lost 0.8% (.N225) , opens new tab. The euro was flat at $1.1580 , after falling 1.3% overnight in its largest drop since mid-May. The dollar index was up at 98.714 , after the rush out of short dollar positions lifted it 1% overnight, while it eased a one-week high on the yen to stand at 148.48 . Wall Street futures held firm on hopes for upbeat results from mega caps this week that include Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab, Meta Platforms (META.O) , opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O) , opens new tab. S&P 500 futures nudged up 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures added 0.4%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries held at 4.408%, having crept higher on Monday as markets braced for another steady decision on interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Futures imply a 97% chance the Fed will keep rates at 4.25%-4.5% at its meeting on Wednesday and reiterate concerns that tariffs will push inflation higher in the short term. Analysts also assume one, or maybe two, Fed officials will dissent in favour of a cut and supporting wagers for a move in September. The odds could change depending on a slew of U.S. data this week including gross domestic product for the second quarter, where growth is seen rebounding to an annualised 2.4%, after a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. Figures on job openings are due later on Tuesday that will help refine forecasts for the crucial payrolls report on Friday. "The equity rally has narrowed, valuations are stretched, and market internals are flashing caution, and consumer data—particularly around housing and retail—show signs of fatigue," said Bruno Schneller, managing director at Erlen Capital Management, Zurich. "This is the start of a 'show-me' phase—for both policymakers and cooperates. Markets will demand confirmation: from earnings, from macro, and from the Fed," Erlen added. Canada's central bank also meets on Wednesday and again is widely expected to hold rates at 2.75%. In commodity markets, prices for copper and iron ore were under pressure while gold was up roughly 0.3% at $3,324 an ounce . Brent climbed over 30 cents to $70.37 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained over 40 cents to $67.14. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-3-2025-07-29/
