2025-07-28 10:42
LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. European stocks and Wall Street futures climbed again after the weekend deal between the United States and European Union averted a trade war between two allies that account for almost a third of global trade. The euphoria also lifted the dollar across the board. The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the EU on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate. The agreement mirrored key parts of the accord the U.S. reached with Japan last week, but, like that deal, this one leaves many open questions, including regarding tariffs on spirits and wine. * Euro zone stocks (.STOXXE) , opens new tab jumped almost 1% to within a whisker of the record high set earlier this month, with S&P 500 futures up modestly ahead of the bell. The dollar's .DXY rise was less intuitive, but analysts said reduced trade tensions may allow markets to now refocus on yield differentials. * U.S. trade deals with the EU, Japan and UK are seen as a significant win for Washington, as they secure higher tariffs on imports into the U.S. without retaliation and include commitments for additional investment to boot. Not all in Europe were happy with the tariff hike. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou called it a "sombre day" for Europe, which he said had resigned itself to submission. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators now resume talks in Stockholm, but the August 1 deadline on U.S. tariffs has been defused considerably as a major market issue. * Traders on Monday will also be keeping tabs on an OPEC+ ministerial meeting, but no change is expected in the production stance. It's also a heavy day of Treasury debt sales, with $139 billion of two- and five-year notes under the hammer. Treasury yields were softer going into the sales. * The week ahead is jam packed with events: policy meetings at the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada; updates on the U.S. labor market, GDP and inflation; four megacap earnings reports and a quarterly refunding announcement. Today's column examines why the Fed may struggle to come up with justification for a rate hike in September. Today's Market Minute * The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate - and averting a bigger trade war between the two allies that account for almost a third of global trade. * Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials will resume talks in Stockholm on Monday to try to tackle longstanding economic disputes at the centre of a trade war between the world's top two economies, aiming to extend a truce by three months and keeping sharply higher tariffs at bay. * The Bank of England is expected to soon slow the pace at which it shrinks its 558 billion-pound ($754 billion) holdings of government bonds, and economists hope next week will shed some light on its longer-term goals for the stockpile. * New European Union sanctions targeting Russia's oil industry will reshuffle global diesel flows for the second time since 2022, adding pressure to an already red-hot market, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso. * ROI columnist Clyde Russell claims the framework agreement reached between the U.S. and China has strong echoes of Donald Trump's failed trade deal with China from his first term as U.S. president. Chart of the day The U.S.-EU trade deal sees 15% levies on European exports to the United States. While the tariff applies to most goods, including semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, there are exceptions. The U.S. will keep in place a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, for example, and there's no guarantee pharma will face higher tariffs in future either. What's more, discussions are still continuing regarding any tariff exemptions for EU wines and spirits, European Commission officials said, referring to the highly contentious area. Today's events to watch * Dallas Federal Reserve July manufacturing survey (10:30 AM EDT) * U.S. corporate earnings: Universal Health, Nucor, Principal Financial, Cincinnati Financial, Veralto, Cadence, Brown & Brown, Waste Management, Welltower, Hartford Insurance, Revvity * U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators resume talks in Stockholm * President Donald Trump meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland * OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting * U.S. Treasury sells $69 billion of 2-year notes, $70 billion of 5-year notes Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-07-28/
2025-07-28 10:40
LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - The pound briefly hit a two-year low versus the euro on Monday, before rebounding, and dipped on the dollar, though its moves were largely a function of those elsewhere as investors digested the announcement of an EU-U.S. trade deal. The pound was last down 0.2% on the dollar at $1.34185, its lowest in a week, having struggled late last week because of soft British retail sales and business activity data. Sign up here. The pound was more volatile against the euro, which rose as high as 87.69 pence in early Asia trade, its highest since May 2023, as its gains last week were extended in a kneejerk bounce after the announcement of the trade deal. The common currency then reversed course, both broadly, and on the pound, as investors speculated that U.S. trade deals, in aggregate, would boost the dollar and so the euro's gains at its expense would cease. On the pound the euro was last down 0.5% at 86.99 pence. Investors are divided on sterling, partly due to disagreement on whether the Bank of England will step up the pace of its rate cuts later this year, something that would weigh on the currency. Inflation in Britain has proven sticky, meaning policymakers are loath to cut rates too quickly unless they are forced to, and recent data - soft but not terrible - has not yet definitively answered that question. "Another round of only modestly weaker data than expected were enough to push sterling to fresh lows versus the euro," said Barclays analysts in a note. "In our view, the pound's weakness is overdone and due a correction," they said, anticipating that the euro will fall to around 85 pence, which would be consistent with the gap between British and euro zone interest rates. Others expect that more BoE cuts, while the ECB now appears to be on hold, would hurt the pound against the euro. Nomura analysts see the euro rising to 89.75 pence. Little British economic data is due this week. The BoE meets next week, and markets are all but fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut, one of only two more they expect this year. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-bounces-off-two-year-low-euro-soft-dollar-2025-07-28/
2025-07-28 10:23
MUMBAI, July 28 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee dipped on Monday as month-end dollar bids from importers exerted some pressure, but the currency largely sidestepped the spillover from a firmer dollar, which traders indicated was due to the absence of substantial outflows. The rupee closed at 86.6650 against the U.S. dollar, 0.2% down from its close of 86.5150 in the previous session. Sign up here. While the rupee was trading marginally stronger in the first half of the session, it reversed course in the latter half as the dollar index rose. Asian currencies were a tad lower on the day, with the offshore Chinese yuan down by 0.1%. The rupee is "only reacting to flows" over recent sessions, and has found some support above 86.60, a trader at a state-run bank said, pointing to price action driven by foreign portfolio flows and corporate activity. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab fell 0.7% and 0.63% on the day, respectively, diverging from gains in most regional equities. The country's benchmark 10-year bond yield, meanwhile, ticked up to 6.3603%. Equities in Europe were mostly higher while the euro fell, after the U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement over the weekend and investors welcomed the deal with cautious optimism. The euro's recent price action "likely reflects more general U.S. dollar sentiment that was improving toward the end of last week, and we suspect (the sentiment) could extend further this week as investors’ optimism over the U.S. economy improves," MUFG said in a note. U.S. economic data, including the closely watched non-farm payrolls report, will be in focus as investors gauge how far the optimism extends. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, will deliver its policy decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a little over 60% chance of a rate cut in September, per CME's FedWatch tool. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-slips-sidesteps-firmer-dollar-flows-dominate-price-action-2025-07-28/
2025-07-28 10:23
Interactive Brokers looks to enable 24/7 stablecoin funding for brokerage accounts Trading platform looking to allow customers to use stablecoins issued by other firms, depending on credibility of issuer NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR.O) , opens new tab is considering launching a stablecoin for customers, joining a number of large financial firms that are betting big on the digital token boom as the U.S. eases regulations around the crypto industry. The deliberations come at a time when the underlying infrastructure of global financial markets is undergoing a once-in-a-generation transformation due to the proliferation of blockchain-based assets like stablecoins. Sign up here. In an interview with Reuters, Interactive Brokers' billionaire founder Thomas Peterffy said the company is working on potentially issuing stablecoins, but has yet to make a final decision on how that will be offered to customers. Interactive Brokers, which is one of the world's leading discount brokers with a market value of about $110 billion, currently has a partnership with crypto platform Paxos and is also an investor in crypto exchange Zero Hash. Through these tie-ups, Interactive Brokers offers trading in various cryptocurrencies to customers. The popular trading platform is now working on enabling instant, 24/7 stablecoin funding for brokerage accounts, as well as supporting asset transfers for commonly traded cryptocurrencies, said Peterffy, who also sounded a note of caution on the risks of rapid widespread adoption of crypto. "It’s basically hard to grasp its fundamental value. If we see people adopting it and ascribing a value to it, I'm okay with that, but I'm still not convinced," said Peterffy. Among the options being considered, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm could allow customers to use stablecoins issued by other financial institutions to fund their accounts, depending upon the credibility of the issuer. Stablecoins are blockchain-based tokens acting as a proxy for an asset that allow people to move money across borders without interacting with the banking system. Critics have warned that this makes them useful for criminals who want to avoid banks' anti-money laundering checks. Online brokerage firm Robinhood recently launched a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar called the Global Dollar Network through a consortium that included other crypto platforms like Kraken and Galaxy Digital. The Global Dollar Network is based around a stablecoin called USDG, which is issued by Paxos. Interactive Brokers, which last year launched a predictions market called ForecastEx that allows investors to buy "yes" or "no" contracts in response to questions, is one of the largest U.S. trading platforms with about 3.87 million customer accounts at the end of June, a jump of 32% from last year. Like other brokerages, Interactive Brokers has benefited from elevated levels of trading due to market volatility this year that was triggered by U.S. tariff policy. Its shares have surged about 47% since the start of the year, outperforming the S&P 500 Investment Banking & Brokerage index (.SPLRCINVB) , opens new tab, which has risen roughly 20% during the same period. "We view the two innovations (prediction markets and crypto investments) as an effective hedge to any disruption in the firm's core equity, futures, and derivatives businesses," Morningstar analysts said in a note dated July 18. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/interactive-brokers-considers-launching-new-stablecoin-customers-2025-07-28/
2025-07-28 10:08
FRANKFURT, July 28 (Reuters) - The dollar's early dominance of stablecoins gives the U.S. an advantage that could ultimately push up borrowing costs for Europe, reduce the ECB's autonomy and increase geopolitical dependency on the U.S., an ECB blog post argued on Monday. Stablecoins, crypto assets pegged to a currency such as the dollar, have gained popularity in recent years and got a big boost earlier this month when U.S. President Donald Trump signed a law to create a regulatory regime, aimed at cementing the dollar's status as the global reserve currency. Sign up here. "Such dominance of the U.S. dollar would provide the United States with strategic and economic advantages, allowing it to finance its debt more cheaply while exerting global influence," ECB adviser Jürgen Schaaf said in a post that does not necessarily reflect the ECB's own views. "For Europe, this would mean higher financing costs relative to the United States, reduced monetary policy autonomy and geopolitical dependency," he added. If dollar-based stablecoins become widely used in the euro area, for payments, savings or settlement, the ECB’s control over monetary conditions could be weakened, Schaaf argued. Dollar-pegged stablecoins issued by Tether and Circle (CRCL.N) , opens new tab have dominated the global market and the share of euro-denominated stablecoins remains marginal, with market capitalisation of less than 350 million euros, the blog post said. Europe should thus act quickly, creating the digital version of its euro currency, a project, that is being held up by legislative delays, and should foster the creation of more euro-based stablecoins. The EU should also foster the use of distributed ledger technology to speed up cheap cross-border payments, the blog argued. "Finally, stronger global coordination on stablecoin regulation is pivotal," the blog said. "If we forgo a common approach, we risk fuelling instability, regulatory arbitrage and global U.S. dollar dominance." https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-stablecoins-threaten-europes-monetary-autonomy-ecb-blog-argues-2025-07-28/
2025-07-28 10:03
LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - A downturn in British retail sales extended into its 10th month in July as rising prices weighed on consumers, although the pace of the fall was less severe than in June, a Confederation of British Industry survey showed on Monday. The CBI's monthly gauge of how retail sales compared with a year earlier stood at -34 this month, an improvement on June's -46 but still a sign of weakness in demand. Sign up here. A measure of expected sales for August rose to -31 from -49, the CBI said. "Firms reported that elevated price pressures – driven by rising labour costs – and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on household demand, which has contributed to sales volumes falling since October 2024," Martin Sartorius, principal economist at the CBI said. Employers groups have said finance minister Rachel Reeves' decision to increase the social security contributions they pay for their staff, as well as an increase in the minimum wage, is contributing to higher prices. Weak demand was mirrored across the distribution sector, with wholesale and motor trades also seeing declining sales, Sartorius said. Official data published last week showed British consumers shopped more in June after May's big fall with hot weather helping to increase sales of drinks, clothes and car fuel. However, in the three months to June, sales volumes rose by 0.2%, the weakest increase since the three months to February. Many households are feeling the squeeze again from an inflation rate that rose to 3.6% in June. While the CBI's overall sales gauge remained in negative territory, online sales volume rose for a third month in a row, albeit marginally. The data was collected between June 27 and July 15 and was based on responses from 56 retailers and 91 wholesalers. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/uk-retail-downturn-stretches-into-10th-month-cbi-says-2025-07-28/
