2025-07-24 14:33

BRASILIA, July 24 (Reuters) - Brazil's federal tax revenue hit a record high in the first half of the year, lifted by strong June collections, revenue service data showed on Thursday, as President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeks to boost public income to shore up fiscal accounts. Federal tax revenue rose 6.62% in June from a year earlier in real terms, reaching 234.594 billion reais ($42.51 billion). Sign up here. From January to June, revenue totaled 1.426 trillion reais, up 4.38% in real terms from the same period last year. Both the monthly and year-to-date figures were the highest ever recorded for their respective periods, the tax authority said. Revenue from the IOF tax on financial operations increased in June after the government raised the levy on several transactions via decree in late May. Although Congress later overturned the measure, it was reinstated earlier this month following a Supreme Court decision. The revenue service also highlighted a rise in income tax collection on financial investments, driven by the elevated benchmark interest rate, Selic, "which contributed to the performance of fixed income funds and securities." Policymakers have raised the Selic by 450 basis points since last September to fight inflation, taking the rate to a nearly 20-year high of 15%. Despite strong tax revenue, the government projected earlier this month a primary deficit of 26.3 billion reais for the year, excluding nearly 50 billion reais in court-ordered payments that the Supreme Court ruled should not count toward the fiscal target. While the figure remains within the zero-deficit goal's tolerance band of 0.25% of GDP, it underscores the challenge of balancing the budget amid rising mandatory spending, including pensions and social benefits. ($1 = 5.5187 reais) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-tax-revenue-surges-record-h1-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 14:06

Economic growth forecast cut due to Russian attacks Public spending, foreign aid support Ukraine's economy Government, IMF work on new lending program KYIV, July 24 (Reuters) - Ukraine's central bank left its key interest rate steady at 15.5% on Thursday for the third consecutive meeting, saying it expects inflation to continue to ease but wartime risks will constrain economic growth. Economic growth will slow to 2.1% this year compared with 2.9% in 2024, it said in a statement. Sign up here. The central bank previously predicted 2025 growth at 3.1% but it cut its forecast due to more intense Russian attacks in recent months. "Going forward, the pace of recovery will depend on the course of the war," the bank's governor, Andriy Pyshnyi, told media. Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022 devastated the economy, with gross domestic product plunging by about one-third in 2022. The economy posted modest growth in 2023 and 2024, but it is still about 20% smaller than before the war. Pyshnyi said that public spending and a steady inflow of international aid had helped the economy in the first half of the year. But more intense Russian air attacks and further destruction of production facilities, infrastructure and housing had restrained growth, he said. The war has heated up in recent months with swarms of drones launched by both Moscow and Kyiv, fighting raging along more than 1,000 km (600 miles) and dim prospects for peace. Officials said the war was also causing staff shortages amid persistent emigration. GDP grew by 0.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of the year, data showed. Bad weather also weighed on growth prospects, delaying crop sowing and hampering future harvests in the farm business that is a major sector of the economy, the bank said. Another key risk for the economy was an insufficient level of international financial aid, Pyshnyi said. The bulk of Ukraine's revenues goes to defence, and aid from allies is crucial for Kyiv's ability to finance social and humanitarian spending. The government has received $24 billion out of $54 billion expected in aid in 2025. He also said the government worked with the International Monetary Fund, the country's key lender, on approaches for a new support program. The central bank also said it expects inflation to reach 9.7% at the end of 2025 and forecasts it to slow to 6.6% in 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-central-bank-holds-key-rate-steady-says-war-risks-will-curb-2025-growth-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 13:30

ECB keeps rates steady as it awaits clarity over trade Fed, Bank of Japan meet next week After spate of rate cuts, easing is slowing down LONDON, July 24 (Reuters) - The pace of central bank rate cuts is slowing as early movers near the end of their easing cycles while sticky inflation keeps others cautious. Politics both domestic and international is another complication for central bankers, particularly in the United States, where President Donald Trump continues to muse publicly about firing Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Sign up here. Here's where 10 big central banks stand on the monetary policy path. 1/ SWITZERLAND Bets that the Swiss National Bank will use negative interest rates to tackle the seemingly unstoppable rise of the safe haven franc have faded after it kept benchmark borrowing costs on hold at 0% in June. Traders have since put 75% odds on another pause in September and speculate the SNB has started intervening to weaken the franc. 2/ CANADA The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold steady for now as U.S. tariff tensions contribute to a baffling economic outlook, with growth contracting as inflation rises and trade war disruptions to consumer behaviour muddle the outlook further. Money markets expect that the formerly dovish central bank, which implemented 225 basis points (bps) of cuts in the nine months to April, will keep rates at 2.75% on July 30. 3/ SWEDEN Sweden's central bank cut its key rate to 2% from 2.25% last month, and minutes from that meeting said policy could be eased again this year if growth disappoints and inflation remains tame. The Riksbank has been one of the more aggressive central banks, with 200 bps of cuts since May 2024. 4/ NEW ZEALAND The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates steady earlier this month but said it expected to loosen monetary policy if price pressures continued to ease as forecast. The RBNZ has cut rates by 225 bps already this cycle. 5/ EURO ZONE The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday after cutting eight times in a year, biding its time while Brussels and Washington negotiate over trade. Its main policy rate is currently at 2% down from 4% a year ago, and inflation is back at the ECB's 2% goal. Markets see around an 80% chance of a final 25 bp cut by year end but that depends on whether policymakers fear inflation might fall too far below target. That in turn depends on a trade deal and whether the euro continues to appreciate. 6/ UNITED STATES The Fed meets next week, with markets all but certain it will remain on hold despite heavy pressure from Trump to make significant rate cuts. Trump appeared close to trying to fire Powell last week, but backed off with a nod to the market disruption that would likely follow. Further rate cuts are anticipated later this year and investors see roughly a 50% chance of a 25 bps reduction in September. A move then had been seen as likely until last week's data showed inflation rose to 2.7% year-on-year in June. 7/ BRITAIN The Bank of England meets on Aug 7. Markets expect a 25 bps rate cut even after data last week showed a surprise jump in inflation and a less-dramatic-than-feared cooling in the labour market. Sticky inflation means the Bank of England has been more cautious than most with easing. Markets price two, 25 bps rate cuts by year-end -- including an August move. 8/ AUSTRALIA The Reserve Bank of Australia is cautious too and surprised markets earlier this month by holding rates steady at 3.85%, saying it wanted to wait to confirm inflation will continue to slow. It was a rare split decision, but Governor Michele Bullock said the disagreement was more about timing and, if inflation continues to slow, the bank remains on an easing path. At least two more 25 bps cuts are priced by year end. 9/ NORWAY Norway's central bank cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25% last month, its first reduction since 2020. The Norges Bank has been the most cautious among developed market central banks, and data this month showing core inflation at 3.1% reinforced this stance. Only one more cut this year is fully priced. 10/ JAPAN The Bank of Japan, the sole central bank in hiking mode, has had its task complicated by uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and Japanese politics. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has denied media reports he decided to quit. However, after Japan and the U.S. struck a trade deal this week, BOJ governor, Shinichi Uchida, signalled conditions for resuming hikes may start to fall into place. Uchida said the deal had reduced uncertainty and increased the likelihood Japan will sustainably hit its 2% inflation goal - a requirement for further rate increases some policymakers say. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-cenbank-graphics-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:53

July 24 (Reuters) - Union Pacific (UNP.N) , opens new tab, the largest U.S. freight railroad operator, beat second-quarter profit estimates on Thursday, powered by higher revenue from coal shipments and improved pricing. Coal shipment volumes, a weak spot for U.S. railroad operators, have picked up after U.S. President Donald Trump signed executive orders aimed at boosting coal production. Sign up here. Union Pacific, seen as a barometer for U.S. economic activity, also benefited from strong volumes in its grain products segments and industrial chemicals shipments. While the policy shift has provided a recent boost to rail carriers, the North American railroad industry has struggled with volatile freight volumes, rising labor and fuel costs and growing pressure from shippers over service reliability. The West Coast rail giant has reportedly been in early-stage talks with its East Coast peer, Norfolk Southern (NSC.N) , opens new tab, to explore a cross-continental railroad merger, possibly creating a single-line network stretching from coast to coast. However, a merger with Norfolk would be subject to severe antitrust scrutiny from regulatory bodies such as Surface Transportation Board, which oversees railroads. Union Pacific's quarterly profit rose to $3.03 per share, beating analysts' average estimate of $2.91 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG. Adjusted operating ratio, a key metric for measuring the operational efficiency of a railroad, rose by 230 basis points to 58.1% from a year earlier. Total operating revenue for the quarter ended June 30 came in at $6.15 billion, compared with the average estimate of $6.16 billion. The company said operating revenue was driven by higher volume and "solid" core pricing gains. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/railroad-operator-union-pacifics-quarterly-profit-rises-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:51

July 24 (Reuters) - Shares of Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) (IIAN.NS) , opens new tab fell nearly 30% on Thursday, as investors grew concerned that a planned overhaul of electricity pricing could increase competition and erode the bourse's market dominance. IEX, currently India's leading platform for spot electricity price discovery, faces pressure following the power regulator's announcement on Wednesday of a phased rollout of market coupling starting in January. Sign up here. Under the new system, other power exchanges will also act as market couplers, challenging IEX's central role. The stock ended lower for a seventh consecutive session and logged its worst intraday single-day performance since listing in 2017. Market coupling is an economic model used in energy markets to create a single, uniform price for electricity across different trading platforms or exchanges. IEX "is currently undertaking a detailed impact assessment of the implications of this regulatory change," it said in an exchange filing on Thursday. The order is "worse" than "what we have built in", and IEX is likely to feel the impact on its market share, says Bernstein. The brokerage, which maintains a "market perform" rating on the stock, cut its target price to 122 rupees from 160 rupees to "reflect (the) full impact of market coupling". On average, IEX shares are rated "buy" with a median target price of 215 rupees, per data compiled by LSEG. The company's shares closed down 29.6% at 132.32 rupees, swinging to a year-to-date loss of 27.2%. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/indian-energy-exchange-sinks-30-fears-rising-competition-new-pricing-rules-2025-07-24/

2025-07-24 12:46

Mediterranean heatwave has scorched swathes of land Ten firefighters killed in central Turkey Minister says strong winds and scorching heat creating extremely dangerous conditions BILECIK, Turkey/NICOSIA, July 24 (Reuters) - Firefighters across Turkey and Cyprus battled multiple wildfires on Thursday amid a searing Mediterranean heatwave that has scorched swathes of land and killed 10 firefighters in central Turkey. At least six separate wildfires burned across Turkey and Turkish Agriculture and Forestry Minister Ibrahim Yumakli warned that strong winds and scorching heat were creating extremely dangerous conditions. Sign up here. Late on Wednesday, Yumakli said 10 firefighters were killed while battling a fire in the central Eskisehir province, adding that 14 others were injured. Fanned by strong winds, the fire later spread to another central province, Afyonkarahisar, while some towns and villages were evacuated. In the northwestern province of Bilecik, fires raged for a fourth straight day, as firefighters struggled to contain them and evacuated several villages. Some residents were later allowed to return to areas declared safe. "They couldn't intervene. There is no decent road, forests are thick and it's rocky. Helicopters don't work at night, and because they don't work, they couldn't intervene,” said Cemil Karadag, a resident of the village of Selcik. "It engulfed our village from two or three sides, they couldn't intervene ... It spread very quickly with the effect of the wind, but, thank God, (the centre of) our village wasn't damaged that much." In the Black Sea province of Sakarya, a wildfire erupted even as firefighters worked to contain another nearby. A key highway was shut due to the blaze, while some villages and towns were evacuated. Another fire in the neighbouring province of Karabuk, where the UNESCO World Heritage City of Safranbolu is located, quickly grew and led to 10 villages being evacuated, while a sixth blaze raged in the Western province of Manisa. 'SHEER HELL' In the eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus, firefighters battled for a second day to control a massive wildfire which engulfed mountain villages north of the city of Limassol. Two people were found dead in their car, trapped by the blaze which started on Wednesday. Scores of homes were destroyed as people fled their homes overnight from a towering wall of flames. Although the cause was not immediately known, authorities said they would be looking at the possibility of arson. "It was sheer hell," said Father Michalis, a Greek Orthodox priest who had to evacuate from Lofou village. After subsiding early Thursday, authorities were struggling to contain flare-ups at midday, stoked by strong winds. "Our focus right now is to control the fire, utilising to the maximum all ground and air forces," government spokesperson Konstantinos Letymbiotis said. "We are facing an unprecedented situation." In addition to air assets from Spain, Egypt and Jordan, Israel has also said it would send assistance, he said. Aircraft from the British bases on Cyprus were also assisting in the effort. Ersin Tatar, president of the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is recognised only by Turkey and has been split from the island's south, said his government was ready to help as well. Although heatwaves and wildfires are common in this region, their impact on human life and the damage has become much more pronounced in recent years. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/firefighters-struggle-contain-wildfires-turkey-cyprus-amid-heatwave-2025-07-24/