2025-12-01 11:50
Bitcoin's possible correlation with stock market watched Crypto-negative factors add pressure on bitcoin, says Jefferies Record outflows from US bitcoin ETFs in November, LSEG data shows NEW YORK/LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Bitcoin slumped on Monday, with the world's largest cryptocurrency down about 6% and on track for its biggest daily percentage fall since early November, as risk aversion drove investors out of digital and other assets. Bitcoin was last down 6% at $85,788 and earlier fell as much as 8% to $83,879.01. Sign up here. The day's move followed bitcoin's biggest monthly drop since mid-2021. Bitcoin shed more than $18,000 in November, as a record amount of money rushed out of the market, making this its largest dollar loss since May 2021, when a number of cryptocurrencies collapsed. Adding to bearish sentiment around bitcoin on Monday, Strategy (MSTR.O) , opens new tab - the largest corporate holder of bitcoin - cut its earnings forecast for 2025, citing the weak run in bitcoin. Strategy's shares fell 3.3%. Over the last 24 hours, crypto liquidations in both long and short positions totalled nearly $1 billion, according to CoinGlass. FADING CRYPTO ENTHUSIASM "Bitcoin seems to be suffering from a fading enthusiasm across crypto as well as the tech world," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington. "The negativity at the moment seems tied to growing concerns about increased market concentration and questionable sustainability of overall growth in that sector, considering the issues of infrastructure as well as less cooperation in trade globally," he said. Ether also fell on Monday and was last 8.8% lower at $2,756. It lost some 22% in value in November, the most since February's 32% slide. Stocks recently sold off on concerns about exuberance over the artificial intelligence trade and lofty valuations in technology shares. Stocks were mostly lower on Monday, with MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab last down about 0.40%. The S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab ended down 0.5%. RISK INDICATOR Given its short lifespan, there is not much seasonality to guide traders' expectations for how bitcoin usually behaves in December. On average, bitcoin has tended to rise by around 9.7% in December, ranking it third in terms of performance. October is typically the strongest month, with an average gain of 16.6%, and September the weakest month, with an average loss of 3.5%. Some strategists were keeping a close eye on bitcoin's correlation with the stock market. Some see bitcoin as a possible leading indicator for risk assets. Joe Saluzz, co-founder of Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey, said crypto and stocks may be linked via exchange-traded funds but are not always correlated. For example, the stock market was down moderately on Monday while crypto-related assets sold off, he said. XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said in a note: "Bitcoin tends to be a leading indicator for overall risk sentiment right now, and its slide does not bode well for stocks at the start of this month." "There is no obvious driver (on Monday). However, the sharp decline in volatility last week, the VIX fell back below the average for the last 12 months, may have unnerved some investors who remain concerned about an uncertain outlook into year-end," she said. CME bitcoin futures also showed the growing bearishness. Bitcoin futures that expire in three months' time traded at their smallest premium to those that expire this month in at least a year, signaling investors were less inclined to bank on a sustained price rise. NEGATIVES STACKING UP Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar said a number of crypto-negative factors added to the pressure on bitcoin on Monday. S&P Global downgraded its rating of Tether, the world's largest stablecoin last week, citing an increase in higher-risk assets in its reserves and "persistent gaps in disclosure," which Tether said it "strongly disagrees" with. Other crypto company shares were down as well, with Coinbase Global (COIN.O) , opens new tab falling 4.8%. Since hitting a record $4.3 trillion in size, the crypto market has lost over $1 trillion in value, according to CoinGecko. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets in New York, said the key is that "people are talking about" what is happening to bitcoin. "I see a lot of people trying to tie the selloff in crypto to the selloff in the other asset markets. But we need to test the narrative. It's just not clear ... but we have to pay attention to it." https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bitcoin-falls-5-below-90000-investors-ditch-risk-assets-2025-12-01/
2025-12-01 11:35
LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Dhara Ranasinghe, Editor, Financial Markets EMEA. What matters in U.S. and global markets today. Sign up here. Trade in the final month of a turbulent 2025 is underway and the readout from markets is that it's unlikely to be a quiet end to the year. Also, check out the latest episode of the new Morning Bid , opens new tab daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week. For more from Mike Dolan, check out his column today on how White House adviser Kevin Hassett could become the Federal Reserve's "shadow chair" for five months. Today's Market Minute A far from quiet end to the year Everywhere you look the risks are stacking up hard and fast, but for now, let's stick to the immediate horizon. If bitcoin can be seen as a proxy for Wall Street, then Monday's 5% drop in the crypto currency back below $90,000 does not bode well. The currency is set for its biggest one-day fall in almost a month, fitting in with the risk off mode taking hold across world markets, with Asian and European shares (.STOXX) , opens new tab lower and U.S. equity futures pointing decidedly down . There doesn't appear to be a single catalyst for the risk-off mood, although for some the answer lies in the heaviest selling in Japanese government bonds in four months on the prospect of a Bank of Japan rate hike as early as this month. The BOJ will consider the "pros and cons" of raising rates at its next policy meeting, Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday, giving the strongest signal yet of a December hike. That's given a boost to the battered yen , while rate sensitive two-year bond yields rose to their highest since 2008 and the blue-chip Nikkei tumbled almost 2% (.N225) , opens new tab. Central bank direction also remains in focus on Wall Street as the December 10 Fed meeting looms, against a backdrop of flip-flopping from traders over whether rates will be cut. Adding to the uncertainty is an expectation that U.S. President Donald Trump could soon announce the next Fed chair, meaning markets could be caught between hanging on the words of current Fed chief Jerome Powell as well as his successor. Just before the Thanksgiving break, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Trump would likely announce the nominee before Christmas with White House aide Kevin Hassett seen as the front runner. Late on Sunday, Trump said he knows who he will pick as next Fed chair. Signs meanwhile that in progress in U.S. trade negotiations failed to translate into a significant recovery in orders among Asia's manufacturing powerhouses may also help explain caution across world stock markets. A raft of purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) on Monday showed declines in activity in China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. In China, the world's largest manufacturer, factory activity slipped back into contraction, a , a day after Beijing's official measure showed activity falling for the albeit at a slower pace. Euro zone manufacturing activity also slipped back into contraction territory in November, Monday data showed. U.S. and Ukrainian officials meanwhile held what both sides called productive talks on Sunday about a Russia peace deal, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressing optimism about progress despite challenges to ending the more than three-year-long war. Chart of the day Bitcoin is back below $90,000, extending losses after its steepest monthly decline since the 2021 crypto crash, as renewed risk aversion drove investors out of stocks and digital assets. Today's events to watch - U.S. November ISM index - Treasury Bill auction Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-12-01/
2025-12-01 11:29
DUBAI, Dec 1 (Reuters) - A new mechanism adopted by OPEC+ to assess members' maximum output capacity will ultimately help to stabilise markets and reward those who invest in production, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday. The OPEC+ group approved the mechanism to assess members' maximum production capacity to be used for setting baselines from 2027, against which their output targets are set, OPEC said on Sunday. Sign up here. Prince Abdulaziz said the mechanism was "fair and transparent" for determining production levels. "Now we have the most detailed, the most technical, transparent approach of how we can move forward in the future in managing the market and how to attend to production", he said. "Yesterday was probably one of the most successful days in my personal career and I am very grateful and thankful for the support of our friends in Russia," he said during the launch of a Saudi-Russian business forum in Riyadh. The meetings on Sunday of OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, also agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026. The evaluation of members' maximum production capacity is scheduled to take place between January and September 2026, according to sources following the meetings, allowing for 2027 output quotas to be set. "It will also be a mechanism that will reward those who invest and those who believe there is growth, and would put us in the lead amongst the other producers," Prince Abdulaziz said. OPEC+ has been discussing the production capacity and quotas issue for years in talks that had proved difficult because some members such as the United Arab Emirates have increased capacity and want higher quotas. Other members such as African countries have seen declines in production capacity but are resisting quota cuts. Angola quit the group in 2024 over a disagreement about its production quotas. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-meetings-outcome-turning-point-saudi-energy-minister-says-2025-12-01/
2025-12-01 11:29
Tornqvist to step down, sell stake in management buyout Leadership change aims at reset amid scrutiny over Russia links Pedersen named CEO as Gunvor seeks stronger US ties, expansion LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Global commodity trading house Gunvor's (GGL.UL) CEO Torbjorn Tornqvist will step down and sell his full shareholding in a management buyout, weeks after the U.S. dubbed the firm the "Kremlin's puppet" over its past Russian links. The firm said on Monday that Americas head Gary Pedersen, hired by the company just last year, will assume the top role. Sign up here. "The buyout has been advanced at this time to establish a definitive reset and path forward for a company, for which misperceptions about its past have become an impossible distraction," Gunvor said in a statement. That was a reference to the U.S. Treasury last month calling Gunvor the "Kremlin's puppet" and sinking what would have been Gunvor's biggest ever deal to acquire U.S.-sanctioned Russian oil major Lukoil's (LKOH.MM) , opens new tab international assets. Gunvor said at the time that the Treasury's statement was "fundamentally misinformed and false" and it welcomed "the opportunity to ensure this clear misunderstanding is corrected." SWITCH AT THE HELM SPELLS END OF AN ERA The leadership transition marks the end of Tornqvist's 25-year leadership of Swiss-based Gunvor, in a deal that could be worth billions of dollars. Tornqvist's shareholding stood at 84.79% at the end of 2024, according to the group's results, when the company had an equity value of $6.5 billion. Tornqvist has already stepped down as CEO and will exit the company's board when the deal closes, Gunvor said. Gunvor did not specify the buyout value of Tornqvist's shares, or give a time frame for the buyout deal, which it said was first conceived in 2022. TORNQVIST CO-FOUNDED GUNVOR IN 2000 "I’m ready and the company is ready for this transition, which we have worked on for some time. For a trading house of Gunvor's size and complexity, a broad-based, inclusive partnership is the right model," Tornqvist said. Tornqvist, 72, co-founded Gunvor in 2000 with business partner Gennadiy Timchenko, and grew the company into the largest trader of Russian oil in the 2000s. Gunvor has since expanded into new markets, including in recent years moving into U.S. gas and power, amid a wider trend of top trading houses allocating their record earnings , opens new tab towards expansion in different geographies and commodities markets. GUNVOR EYES US EXPANSION Pedersen's promotion coincides with a push by Gunvor to smooth its ties with the U.S., which has seen the firm hold active talks to invest in U.S. oil and gas-producing assets in recent weeks. Pedersen joined Gunvor last year from hedge fund Millennium Management, where he was a senior portfolio manager for refined products since 2022. His appointment came as Tornqvist undertook a broader shake-up of Gunvor's senior leadership, and the company said he was hired "with the intention of eventually assuming global leadership." "The time is right for this transition. A generational shift has been well underway, and we have the financial strength, liquidity, and depth of leadership to continue to advance our global growth strategy," Pedersen said. Under Pedersen, Gunvor's Americas arm has sought to grow its investments in U.S. shale gas production, joining other trading firms in betting that more control of the North American supply chain will pay dividends if AI growth and LNG plant expansions boost demand over the coming years. Gunvor's U.S. portfolio currently has an enterprise value exceeding $4 billion and is a key growth area, a company spokesperson told Reuters recently. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/gunvor-ceo-torbjorn-tornqvist-step-down-management-buyout-2025-12-01/
2025-12-01 11:26
LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The pound edged lower on Monday, as investors took some profits on November's modest gains ahead of a widely expected interest rate cut later this month. Sterling gained more than 1% last week, marking its largest weekly gain since early August, lifted by a relief rally after finance minister Rachel Reeves' long-awaited budget soothed some concern about Britain's long-term finances. Sign up here. The pound was last down 0.13% against the dollar at $1.3226, while dropping against the euro, which rose 0.3% to 87.89 pence . Seasonally, December tends to be a stronger month for sterling. On average, over the last 25 years, December tends to be the second-strongest month of the year for the pound, with a gain of 0.28%, behind top month April, when the pound has, on average gained 1%, according to LSEG data. Money markets show traders are placing a 90% chance of a cut from the Bank of England later in December that would take the base rate to 3.75%, where they expect it to remain for the coming few months. This erodes some of the pound's appeal for overseas investors, but by the end of the year, the UK would still boast some of the highest interest rates within the Group of 10 wealthiest nations, which offers sterling some support. "The removal of some policy and political uncertainty removes some of the headwinds to the UK pound. It has strengthened a little since Reeves’s speech. But we think it is likely to weaken a little over the coming months — especially against the euro — as policy rates and bond yields come lower," Graham Hook, head of EMEA government relations and public policy, and Benjamin Jones, global head of research at Invesco, said in a note late last week. Anecdotally, Simon Phillips, managing director of travel currency specialist No1 Currency, said the pound's performance in November had offered a boon to British consumers looking to go abroad, as what he called the "Rachel rally" lifted sterling last month against most of the currencies of popular tourist destinations, such as the Turkish lira and Icelandic crown. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-dips-investors-take-profit-rachel-rally-2025-12-01/
2025-12-01 11:13
Alberta Energy Regulator did not enforce flaring limit exceedance Flaring limit removal highlights Canada's economic vs. environmental challenge Canada aims to end routine flaring by 2030, despite rising flaring in Alberta CALGARY, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The regulator in charge of environmental enforcement in Canada's main oil-producing province bent to pressure from the provincial government and oil companies to eliminate a limit on natural gas flaring as Canadian oil production increased, according to documents seen by Reuters. Alberta's dismantling of its 20-year-old flaring limit after companies blew through the limit two years in a row, with no objections from the federal government, is an example of the challenges Canada faces in reconciling its environmental commitments with a renewed focus on economic growth. Sign up here. The documents, obtained through access to information laws, show the Alberta Energy Regulator sent letters to 20 companies in the spring of 2024 threatening to enforce flaring limits — which could have resulted in curtailed oil production — if the operators did not prepare and implement plans for lowering their flaring volumes. But the plans that operators, including U.S.-based Murphy Oil (MUR.N) , opens new tab and Canada's Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO) , opens new tab, submitted were unenforced. By June 2025, as first reported by Reuters, the regulator quietly did away with flaring limits in response to directives from Alberta government officials. 'HUMBLE AND COLLABORATIVE' APPROACH In the lead-up to that decision, the government urged the regulator to take a "softer" tone in its communication with offending companies, taking a "humble and collaborative" approach, previously unreported email records show. “It is desirable to work with our industry partners to address this issue," an Alberta Environment Department official wrote to the regulator. The regulator, described by the Alberta government as an arm's-length independent body, was urged to implement the change with "no proactive communications or announcements." The AER said in an email it did not follow through with enforcement because the flaring policy was under review and it had disclosed the end of the flaring limit in a regulatory filing on its website. Regulator and government staff gathered industry feedback together on the flaring policy's effectiveness, said Alberta Environment spokesperson Tom McMillan. "The comments in question were from staff-to-staff discussions about the tone of communication and engagement approach — not any compliance or enforcement action," McMillan said. FLARING LIMIT SEEN AS PRODUCTION CAP Flaring is the practice of burning off excess natural gas associated with oil production. Canada, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, achieved record-high oil production last year. Prime Minister Mark Carney, a former UN special envoy on climate action who is seeking to diversify the economy away from the U.S. and the uncertainties of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, has said he wants Canada to become an "energy superpower." But Canada's energy sector has said many of the country's environmental rules get in the way of expanding oil output. The documents show the regulator faced pushback from companies about the flaring limit, which one industry group said could serve as a de facto production cap. Carney signed an agreement with Alberta on Thursday to drop its planned emissions cap on the oil and gas sector. CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS Companies sometimes flare gas when there are no pipelines nearby to transport the gas. From a climate change perspective, flaring can be preferable to venting, or releasing the excess gas directly into the atmosphere without burning it first. Venting produces large amounts of methane, an extremely potent greenhouse gas. Alberta has cut its methane emissions from the oil and gas sector in half over the past decade. A spokesperson for Canada's Environment Department said flaring can be a short-term solution for reducing methane emissions if companies that vent natural gas switch to flaring. However, she said Canada recognizes that flaring contributes to climate change by emitting carbon dioxide and other pollutants. INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS Canada is a signatory to a World Bank initiative that commits countries to ending routine flaring by 2030. Along with 10 other countries, Canada endorsed a statement at the recent COP30 summit recognizing the importance of ending routine venting and flaring by 2030. Other major oil producers such as the United States, Russia and Iran flare more gas than Canada. The European Union has stronger regulations than Canada, including an outright ban on routine flaring, which is done for reasons other than emergencies or safety. But regulatory data shows flaring has been rising in Alberta. Oil and gas producers in the province flared approximately 912.7 million cubic metres of natural gas in 2024, exceeding the annual provincial limit by 36%. AER data for the first nine months of 2025, first tallied by Reuters, show Alberta's oil producers are on track this year to again exceed the now-cancelled flaring limit. "There's a clear gap here between commitments and policy," said Amanda Bryant, senior analyst with the Pembina Institute, a clean energy think-tank. "Especially when there are plenty of viable alternatives to flaring." https://www.reuters.com/world/alberta-oil-regulator-stopped-enforcing-gas-flaring-limits-after-government-2025-12-01/
