2025-07-21 16:57
MUMBAI, July 21 (Reuters) - Indian farmers have accelerated the planting of summer-sown crops such as paddy, soybeans, cotton and corn, following above-average monsoon rainfall in July which increased the moisture levels required for sowing, according to government data. The monsoon is the lifeblood of India's nearly $4 trillion economy, delivering almost 70% of the rainfall needed to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs. Sign up here. Nearly half of India's farmland is not irrigated and depends on the annual June-September rains for crop growth. The country has so far received 6% more rainfall than normal since the start of monsoon season on June 1, which helped farmers to plant summer crops on 70.83 million hectares (175 million acres) by July 18, up 4.1% from the last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare. Farmers have planted 17.67 million hectares with rice paddy, up 12.4% on the same period last year, as a hike in support prices prompted farmers to expand the area. India is the world's biggest exporter of rice and the top importer of edible oils such as palm oil and soyoil. Farmers planted soybean on 11.17 million hectares, down from last year's 11.9 million hectares but having accelerated in the last week. Corn was planted on 7.1 million hectares, up from 6.17 million a year earlier. The cotton area was 3.4% lower at 9.86 million hectares, having also seen an increase in the past few days, while pulses planting rose by 2.3% from a year ago to 8.2 million hectares. The farm ministry keeps updating the provisional sowing figures as it gathers more information from the state governments. Farmers are inclined to expand the area under paddy as the government buys large quantities at state-fixed support prices, which is not the case for other crops, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm. "So far, the weather's been pretty good for crops, except in a few parts of north-eastern India. If the monsoon stays strong next month, we could be looking at a bumper harvest across the country," he said. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/indian-farmers-accelerate-summer-crop-sowing-amid-strong-monsoon-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 16:50
July 21 (Reuters) - (This July 21 story has been corrected to say that Morgan Stanley expects the S&P 500 to reach 7,200 points by the middle of next year, not this year, in paragraph 2) Morgan Stanley backed its bullish stance on U.S. equities on Monday, citing strong earnings momentum, and said it was expecting a modest pullback in the third quarter that could create an opportunity to buy the dip. Sign up here. The Wall Street brokerage is leaning more towards its bull case of the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab hitting 7,200 points by the middle of next year, it wrote in a note. In May, the brokerage said the S&P 500 was expected to hit 6,500 in the second quarter of 2026. "With earnings on solid footing into next year and the Fed closer to cutting rates, valuations can remain supported around current levels (~22x) as we think about the 12-month outlook," Morgan Stanley equity strategists led by Michael Wilson said. However, the brokerage said rising Treasury yields - especially the 10-year note breaching above 4.5% - could increase rate sensitivity for equities and an underperformance of rate-sensitive stocks such as small caps. Morgan Stanley also expects tariff-related cost pressures to show up later this year, which could impact company margins and bump up inflation, leading to a change in rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve. Lastly, it estimates that seasonal trends may hit stocks in from mid-July through August. However, the brokerage said it would buy the dips as the risks could be temporary and only lead to a mild consolidation. Jefferies also raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 5,600 from its previous forecast of 5,300, according to the brokerage's note published on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/business/morgan-stanley-stays-bullish-us-stocks-july-21-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 16:18
July 21 (Reuters) - India's Numaligarh Refinery Ltd (NRL) has extended the deadline for submitting bids for its green hydrogen project in Assam by two weeks, according to a tender document, as uncertainty looms over the state's flagship clean energy policy. NRL, owned by explorer Oil India (OILI.NS) , opens new tab, has extended the last bid submission date to August 6 from July 23 without citing a reason for the extension, per the document seen by Reuters. Sign up here. Last week, Reuters reported that the northeastern state of Assam had paused its green hydrogen policy, surprising investors who were already grappling with reduced incentives for renewable energy projects. The delay has prompted companies to reassess their investment plans worth billions of rupees in the region that has historically lagged behind in clean energy adoption, Reuters had reported, citing sources. Last week, Harit Molecules Foundation (HMF), an industry body representing green hydrogen project developers in India, wrote to NRL seeking an extension to submit bids for NRL's 10,000-metric-tonnes-per annum green hydrogen generation project at the Assam refinery, per an email seen by Reuters. The HMF sought the extension citing a lack of clarity on incentives applicable to the project and the complex nature of the project. NRL and Harit Molecules Foundation did not respond to requests for comment. NRL had announced the green hydrogen tender last year and it is among the top tenders floated in the country to boost clean energy adoption. Green hydrogen, produced using renewable electricity, is seen as a key tool in decarbonising heavy industries and transport. Assam in February announced several incentives to attract clean energy investments into the state, but in June, it sharply reduced transmission subsidies and increased bank guarantees without giving reasons. Multiple industry and government sources had told Reuters that the state was coming out with a new green hydrogen policy by July-end. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/indias-numaligarh-refinery-extends-key-green-hydrogen-tender-date-amid-assam-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 14:35
By Promit Mukherjee and David Ljunggren OTTAWA, July 21 (Reuters) - Canadian businesses see less chance of a worst-case tariffs scenario but remain cautious and are keeping hiring and investment under check, the Bank of Canada said in a regular quarterly survey on Monday. Sign up here. Firms' short-term inflation expectations have returned to levels observed at the end of last year and the number of businesses planning for recession has declined slightly, the bank's Business Outlook Survey said. Earlier this year firms had fretted that U.S. tariffs would hit the economy hard, triggering inflation, weak economic growth and joblessness. But their impact has largely been contained to the steel, aluminum and automobile sectors. Inflation, job numbers and the economy have not deteriorated markedly. "Tariffs and related uncertainty ... continue to have major impacts on businesses' outlooks. However, the worst-case scenarios that firms envisioned last quarter are now seen as less likely to occur," the survey said. Around one-third of the firms expect higher tariff-related costs, down from roughly two-thirds in the last quarter, the bank said. A separate monthly survey of business leaders suggests the outlook amongst companies, especially exporters, improved as few have been directly affected by the tariffs so far. But there is still widespread uncertainty on how the U.S. measures and their impacts will play out in the economy. The business outlook indicator - a metric of what business prospects look like under current economic conditions - fell to its lowest level in a year to a negative 2.42. The quarterly survey said around 35% of the firms reported their indicators of order books, advance bookings and sales inquiries had deteriorated compared with 12 months ago as against 29% who said indicators had improved. Investment intentions remain muted, the survey said, adding the balance of opinion is well below its long-term average. Analysts and economists say the business outlook survey gives the central bank more teeth to take a call on rates. The Bank of Canada has kept its key rate steady at 2.75% since April. Only around 12% of the current money market bets show a likely cut on July 30 when the bank will announce its monetary policy decision. A separate survey by the central bank into consumer expectations showed 64.5% of Canadians expect a recession within the next 12 months, down from 66.5% in the first quarter. "The trade conflict is leading consumers to become increasingly cautious about their spending plans and to change their spending behavior," the report said. Many respondents wanted to spend money on Canadian goods and local vacations. ((Reuters Ottawa bureau)) Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/ https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bank-canada-survey-firms-less-worried-by-worst-case-tariff-scenarios-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 14:04
SAO PAULO, July 21 (Reuters) - Private economists polled weekly by Brazil's central bank trimmed their 2026 inflation outlook for the first time in over two months, according to a survey released on Monday, in a welcome development for the central bank. Consumer prices in 2026 are now expected to rise 4.45%, down from 4.50% the previous week, a projection that had remained unchanged for nine straight weeks. Sign up here. The central bank targets inflation at 3% with a tolerance range of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. Central bank officials have expressed concern that long-term inflation expectations may be becoming unanchored, despite the country's main interest rate standing at a restrictive 15%. Economists' forecasts for inflation held steady at 4% for 2027 and dipped slightly to 3.80% from 3.81% for 2028, the survey showed. Inflation projections for this year have been on a steady decline, supported by a stronger exchange rate. They continued that trend this week, easing to 5.10% from 5.17% previously. Central bank chief Gabriel Galipolo said in a letter earlier this month that inflation is expected to return to within the tolerance band by the end of the first quarter of 2026. Estimates for Brazil's benchmark interest rate remained unchanged from the previous week, at 15% for 2025 and 12.5% for 2026. The following is a set of projections from the survey: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-economists-trim-2026-inflation-forecast-boost-central-bank-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 12:26
SAO PAULO, July 21 (Reuters) - Brazil's finance minister said on Monday his country would not give up negotiating with the U.S. but acknowledged that a trade deal may fail to be reached by August 1, when President Donald Trump's 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods are due to take effect. "That could happen," Fernando Haddad told radio station CBN in an interview, saying Latin America's largest economy was still awaiting a response from Washington on trade proposals initially submitted in May. Sign up here. Trump announced the steep tariffs earlier this month, citing what he called a "witch hunt" against former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who is on trial on charges of plotting a coup, and trade practices he said were unfair. Haddad said Brazil had contingency plans to deal with any potential tariffs, and could ultimately redirect more than half its current U.S. exports to other markets. "But that would take time," he cautioned. The U.S. is a large buyer of Brazil's oil, steel products, coffee, aircraft and orange juice, but runs a trade surplus with the South American country - a point Brazilian officials have used to label the threatened tariffs as unjustified. Companies such as planemaker Embraer (EMBR3.SA) , opens new tab, which has the U.S. as its main market, would be hard hit by Trump's move. Haddad said the Brazilian government may need to support the sectors most affected by tariffs, but stressed that such measures would not necessarily incur larger primary spending. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has pledged to reciprocate like-for-like if tariffs take effect as promised, but Haddad on Monday said Brazil would not seek to punish U.S. companies operating in the country. "We cannot pay back in kind something that we consider unfair," the minister said. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-acknowledges-possibility-no-us-trade-deal-by-august-1-2025-07-21/
