2025-07-17 00:56
Investors focus on tariffs and Japan's political shift Japan's exports fall amid tariff tensions with U.S. Concerns over Fed independence and dollar stability rise TOKYO, July 17 (Reuters) - The yen slid on Thursday as concerns mounted over a pivotal election in Japan and a still elusive trade deal with the U.S. to avoid a punishing rise in tariffs. Japan's currency traded near a one-year low against the euro as polls showed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition was in danger of losing its majority in the upper house. The U.S. dollar staged a meagre recovery after U.S. President Donald Trump denied he was planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Sign up here. Japan's top trade negotiator held a phone call with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on tariffs, as data showed the Asian nation's exports were starting to feel the impact of tariffs with shipments down for a second straight month. "With the elections, the tariffs, the overall relationship between Japan and the U.S., I do think there is some reason to sell the yen," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street. "The election seems to be a key point in the foreign view of the currency at the moment." Investors remain focused on tariffs ahead of an August 1 deadline when many trading partners face higher trade levies. Japan failed to clinch a deal with the U.S. before the July 9 expiration of the temporary pause on the country-specific tariffs. Overseas shipments from the world's fourth-largest economy dropped 0.5% in June year-on-year in value terms, data showed on Thursday. The nation's chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa held a 45-minute phone call with Lutnick following comments by Trump that the U.S. would likely keep 25% tariffs on Japan unless the countries agree on a trade deal. Domestic reported that Prime Minister Ishiba is arranging to meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Tokyo on Friday, where the two sides may discuss trade. Ishiba must also contend with an election on Sunday, where polls are signalling a poor showing for his coalition, which could heighten calls for the government to boost spending and cut taxes. The yen slid 0.4% to 148.44 to the dollar after touching the weakest since April 3 in the previous session. The Japanese currency weakened 0.3% to 172.58 per euro, after touching 173.24 on Wednesday, the weakest since July 12, 2024. The greenback rebounded after declines against the yen and euro on Wednesday on investor worries that removing the Fed chief before his term ends in May 2026 would undermine faith in the U.S. financial system. A more dovish Fed could lead to a return of inflation and negative real yields on Treasuries, said Mahjabeen Zaman, head of foreign exchange research at ANZ. "If that comes to fruition, you're going to see a much weaker dollar than we're already expecting," Zaman said in an ANZ podcast. "Such an event, if that even does happen, it will raise questions for Fed independence and credibility, so I think it's only going to be an increase in volatility." Trump has railed against Powell for months for not easing rates, which he says should be at 1% or lower. Bloomberg reported that the president is likely to fire Powell soon, and a source told Reuters that Trump polled some Republican lawmakers on firing Powell and received a positive response. Trump said that the reports were not true. "I don't rule out anything, but I think it's highly unlikely unless he has to leave for fraud," Trump said, a reference to recent White House and Republican lawmaker criticism of cost overruns in the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's historic headquarters in Washington. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against major peers, rose 0.1% to 98.466 after a 0.3% slide on Wednesday. The euro stood at $1.1626 , down 0.1%, while sterling edged 0.2% lower to $1.3395 . The Australian dollar slid after jobs data badly missed forecasts and unemployment hit highs not seen since late 2021. The Aussie fetched $0.6491 , down 0.6%. New Zealand's kiwi dollar lost 0.3% to $0.5929 . https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-shaky-ground-markets-fret-about-fed-independence-2025-07-17/
2025-07-17 00:28
Analysts expect medium-term price drop due to tariff uncertainty Middle East tensions add volatility to oil market Tight crude, product inventories support market LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Thursday, even as global trade tensions appeared to cool, with analysts pointing to low inventories and renewed Middle East risks as factors supporting the market. Brent crude futures were up 31 cents, or around 0.5%, to $68.83 a barrel at 1203 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 61 cents, or 0.9%, at $66.99. Sign up here. U.S. President Donald Trump has said letters notifying smaller countries of their U.S. tariff rates would go out soon, and has also alluded to prospects of a deal with Beijing on illicit drugs and a possible agreement with the European Union. "Near-term prices (are) set to remain volatile due to the uncertainty over the final scale of U.S. tariffs and the resultant impact on global growth," said Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, adding that prices would likely settle lower in the medium term. The oil market on Thursday was also reacting to a tightened inventory scenario, said John Evans, analyst at PVM Oil Associates. Last week, the International Energy Agency said that oil output increases were not leading to higher inventories, which showed markets were thirsty for more oil. "Oil thinking has been distracted from the Middle East, and the reminders of Israel's attacks into Syria and the drone attacks on oil infrastructure in Kurdistan are timely and once again add a little fizz to proceedings," Evans said. Drone attacks on oilfields in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have slashed crude output by up to 150,000 barrels per day, two energy officials said on Wednesday, as infrastructure damage forced multiple shutdowns. "For now, oil market indicators continue to suggest the physical market remains tight. But ongoing trade tensions could weigh on oil demand growth prospects and pose downside risks to prices," said UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-gain-geopolitical-risks-inventory-worries-2025-07-17/
2025-07-17 00:25
SAO PAULO, July 16 (Reuters) - Brazil's Senate on Wednesday approved in a first vote a constitutional amendment to change how the government accounts for court-ordered debt payments starting in 2027, potentially helping it meet fiscal target once considered unattainable. Under the approved text, these payments - the result of court rulings against the government - must be gradually included in the fiscal target calculation each year from 2027 onward, starting with at least 10% of the estimated total. Sign up here. Senators approved the main text in the initial vote on Tuesday evening, with a second round still required before it could become law, as the measure was already cleared by the lower house. However, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre said the final vote will only take place after Congress returns from recess, which starts later this week and will last through the end of July. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-senate-approves-main-text-new-rules-court-ordered-debt-first-vote-2025-07-17/
2025-07-16 23:39
WASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) - The United States is very close to a trade deal with India, while an agreement could possibly be reached with Europe as well, but it is too soon to say whether a deal can be agreed with Canada, President Donald Trump said in an interview aired on Real America's Voice on Wednesday. To press for what Trump views as better terms with trading partners and ways to shrink a huge U.S. trade deficit, his administration has been negotiating trade deals ahead of an August 1 deadline, when duties on most U.S. imports are due to rise again. Sign up here. "We're very close to India, and ... we could possibly make a deal with (the) EU," Trump said, when asked which trade deals were on the horizon. Trump's comments come as EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic was headed to Washington on Wednesday for tariff discussions, while an Indian trade delegation arrived in Washington on Monday for fresh talks. "(The) European Union has been brutal, and now they're being very nice. They want to make a deal, and it'll be a lot different than the deal that we've had for years," he added. Asked about the prospects of a deal with Canada, which like the EU, is readying countermeasures if talks with the U.S. fail to produce a deal, Trump said: "Too soon to say." His comment was in line with the assessment of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who said earlier on Wednesday that a deal that works for Canadian workers was not yet on the table. Trump also said he would probably put a blanket 10% or 15% tariff on smaller countries. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-says-india-trade-agreement-is-close-europe-deal-possible-2025-07-16/
2025-07-16 23:38
July 17 (Reuters) - Australia's Santos (STO.AX) , opens new tab on Thursday narrowed its full-year forecast for output to reflect flood-related operational disruptions at Cooper Basin, one of its key producing regions, while it posted a 2.1% fall in second-quarter sales revenue. The country's second-largest gas producer — which is also the target of an $18.7 billion takeover bid led by Abu Dhabi's national oil company — now expects to produce 90-95 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) in 2025, compared with its previous projection of 90-97 mmboe. Sign up here. In May, more than 200 wells in the Cooper Basin were "underwater" due to flooding in South Australia, which resulted in a 15% decline in output, according to the firm's chief. Santos reported sales revenue of $1.29 billion for the three months ended June 30, compared with $1.31 billion a year earlier and the Visible Alpha estimate of $1.23 billion. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/australias-santos-narrows-2025-production-forecast-cooper-basin-floods-weigh-2025-07-16/
2025-07-16 22:57
WASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said he would love for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to resign but acknowledged that many have said it would disrupt the markets if the president were to remove him. Trump made the comments in an interview with the Real America's Voice network aired on Wednesday. Sign up here. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT Trump has criticized Powell on an almost daily basis in recent days for being "too late" to cut interest rates. The White House and some Republicans have recently expressed criticism of cost overruns in a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's historic headquarters in Washington. The criticism has confirmed the view that the Trump administration is actively exploring those costs as a possible avenue to try to fire the Fed chief well before his term as chair ends in May 2026. There has been no evidence of fraud, and the Fed has pushed back on criticism of its handling of the project. KEY QUOTES "I'd love if he wants to resign, that would be up to him. They say it would disrupt the market if I did," Trump said in the interview in which he later reiterated criticism related to the costs of the renovation of the Fed's headquarters. A Fed spokesperson had earlier pointed to Powell's repeated statements that he has no intention of resigning and would not if asked to do so. CONTEXT Powell, who was nominated by Trump in late 2017 to lead the Fed and then nominated for a second term by then-President Joe Biden four years later, has said he intends to serve out his term as Fed chief, which ends on May 15. Trump said earlier on Wednesday he is not planning to fire Powell. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-would-love-fed-chair-powell-resign-2025-07-16/
