2025-07-16 18:17

BOGOTA, July 16 (Reuters) - Colombia's government is weighing a tax reform proposal that, if passed, would help raise 26 trillion pesos ($6.48 billion) to fund its 2026 budget, two government sources told Reuters on Wednesday. Most of the funds would be raised through tax increases, the sources said. Sign up here. The proposed amount is higher than the 19 trillion pesos announced in June by Finance Minister German Avila during the presentation of the government's medium-term fiscal framework. A drop in tax income has caused Colombia's public finances to weaken, prompting the government of Latin America's fourth-largest economy to suspend the country’s fiscal rule. The Finance Ministry has raised this year's fiscal deficit target to 7.1% of GDP, compared to the earlier target of 5.1%. For 2026, the deficit is projected at 6.2% of GDP. According to preliminary figures presented by Avila on Tuesday night at a cabinet meeting, the government will propose a 2026 spending budget of 551.66 trillion pesos to Congress, which is 7.9% higher than the 2025 budget of 511 trillion pesos. Fiscal challenges led ratings agencies S&P and Moody's to downgrade Colombia's sovereign debt by one notch in June, citing the country's weaker fiscal performance. ($1 = 4,015.04 Colombian pesos) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/colombia-government-weighs-tax-hikes-fund-2026-budget-2025-07-16/

2025-07-16 17:42

BRASILIA, July 16 (Reuters) - The Brazil Treasury's outlook for the country's gross public debt has worsened, with a forecast rise by 10.6 percentage points during President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's current term, 0.6 point higher than its previous estimate in December. In its latest fiscal projections report released on Wednesday, the Treasury forecast the gross debt-to-GDP ratio - a key solvency indicator - to reach 82.3% by 2026, the final year of Lula's leftist administration, up from 71.7% when he took office. Sign up here. If confirmed, it would be the indicator's second-worst deterioration under a presidential term, according to available data from the central bank, behind only 2015-2018, after Brazil faced a historic recession, fiscal crisis and presidential impeachment. For this year, the debt ratio is expected to rise 2.5 points to 79.0% of GDP. According to the Treasury, gross debt is projected to peak at 84.3% of GDP in 2028, a significant increase from the projected peak of 81.8% in 2027 seen just seven months ago. The upward revision reflects the incorporation of higher assumptions for interest rates, exchange rate and inflation, the Treasury said. Latin America's largest economy already holds a high gross debt burden compared with its emerging market peers, with the debt burden growing as borrowing costs rise. Nearly half of Brazil's debt stock is directly linked to the benchmark interest rate, the Selic, whose increases immediately raise debt servicing costs. Since September, the central bank has hiked rates by 450 basis points to a near two-decade high of 15% in a bid to rein in inflation, which has persistently run above the 3% target, with markets remaining skeptical about inflation convergence amid surging public spending under Lula. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-debt-outlook-worsens-treasury-projects-sharp-rise-through-lulas-term-2025-07-16/

2025-07-16 16:59

LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - Bank of England interest rate-setter Catherine Mann said on Wednesday that strong demand without corresponding supply-side growth risks creating a "sugar high" for the economy that could end poorly. "When I think about growth as a central banker, what I want to see is supply side growth, and the demand will come along with it," Mann, who is an external member of the BoE's Monterary Policy Committee, said in an interview with Business News Wales. Sign up here. "Without supply side growth, demand is a sugar high, and it does not end well." She cautioned that bringing inflation down would require a sustained effort. Mann also said that views on the MPC differed over how demand was affecting the labour market. She voted to keep borrowing costs steady at the MPC's meeting in May when a majority of her colleagues backed a cut. "I think that's where differences in views on the committee come from – a difference in assessment of where the demand conditions really are and how that's playing out in the labour market with respect to employment prospects and shedding of labour," Mann said. In a separate interview published on Tuesday, Mann said inflation pressures remained a challenge and she stressed the importance of using interest rates to bring inflation back to the BoE's 2% target. Inflation in the 12 months to June sped up to 3.6% from 3.4% in May, according to data published on Wednesday. Investors are betting that the BoE will cut rates by a further quarter of a percentage point to 4% on August 7 after its next scheduled MPC meeting. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/boes-mann-warns-demand-surge-without-supply-growth-risks-inflation-setback-2025-07-16/

2025-07-16 16:55

LONDON/NEW YORK, July 16 (Reuters - The dollar briefly tumbled on Wednesday and Treasury bond yields popped higher on reports citing an unidentified White House official that U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell soon, before Trump said he is not planning to do so. Stocks also pared the mild losses that came off the original report from Bloomberg. Sign up here. Investors had been on edge for weeks about the prospect of Powell being removed from his job before his term ends next May, as Trump has repeatedly criticised him for not cutting U.S. rates quickly enough. COMMENTS: JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA: “The President would be making a mistake to fire Chair Powell. Federal Reserve independence is critical to money policy effectiveness, and the last thing the country needs is monetary policy by Presidential fiat. If the President messes with the Chairman, the Congress might use it as an excuse to step in to make changes to the Federal Reserve Act--none of these would be good for monetary policy integrity.” CHRISTOPHER HODGE, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR US, NATIXIS, NEW YORK: “Much of Fed governance and process is informal, relying on norms and traditions, rather than statute. These norms have been developed over decades and have helped cement the Fed as a credible, trusted, and non-partisan institution that helps to smooth expectations volatility, rather than add to it. "Maintaining the current traditions is the best route, but even if an alternative path is taken, there are likely sufficient guardrails to prevent a sustained and significant erosion of Fed credibility. If the new Chair is not viewed as credible and nonpartisan, there risks a serious split on FOMC decisions. In this light, selecting Waller as the replacement makes the most sense,” KENNETH BROUX, HEAD OF CORPORATE RESEARCH FX AND RATES, SOCIETE GENERALE, LONDON: "This story keeps churning so understandably markets are nervous that it could happen sooner rather than later re Trump firing Powell. Bond and FX markets do not like the uncertainty. We've had stronger U.S. CPI goods ex-autos just yesterday so to think that lower rates are the way forward as tariffs seep through consumer prices is not going to reassure. Hence long end USTs (US Treasuries)selling off versus the front end and the dollar is down." JUAN PEREZ, SENIOR DIRECTOR OF TRADING, MONEX USA, WASHINGTON: “Ultimately, what drives the U.S. dollar up in value against its peers, against everything is the idea that we have a financial system that's very centered around the U.S. dollar, and it is also a safe-haven asset.” “What can kill the value of the U.S. dollar, what can absolutely destroy faith in the U.S. dollar, is attacking in any way, shape, or form the independence and authority of the Federal Reserve. Ultimately, when it comes to respecting and adhering to this concept of the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset in the midst of turbulence, that turbulence cannot affect or inflict pain when it comes to the greatest financial authority in the form of the Fed. "But if politics, or if the White House, or if anybody can interfere with that, or wants to actively do so, that is absolutely a very, very negative thing for how the U.S. dollar is viewed, how the U.S. dollar is traded, and how people look at the dollar for the future.” “In times of physical disturbance to the world, of geopolitical conflict, it makes sense to hold on to the U.S. dollar, but you're not going to hold on to the U.S. dollar if the one thing that makes it so solid, the Fed, is under attack. It really comes down to that.” PAUL NOLTE, SENIOR WEALTH ADVISOR & MARKET STRATEGIST, MURPHY & SYLVEST, ELMHURST, ILLINOIS: “(Trump’s) going to have to go through litigation in order to do it. He's just not going to be able to pink slip it like he did with different departments, the Department of Education or USAID or anything like that. So there is a process and to my knowledge, it has never happened before. So I'm not sure that it's going to be effective, other than to roil the market.” “My understanding of the Federal Reserve and what can and can't be done – and this has been reviewed by others – is that this is not something he's going to be able to pull off and I'm not sure the Supreme Court is going to go along with it.” “You’re now throwing up a lot of unknowns. Who's going to come in? What are they going to do? Will interest rates go down? Is that going to further inflation?” “Powell has been steady. He's been consistent. Has he made mistakes? Yep. Everybody that's been in that position has. So I'm not sure that putting somebody new in there is going to fix all of those issues, but it does add an element of very much uncertainty to monetary policy.” STEVE SOSNICK, CHIEF STRATEGIST, INTERACTIVE BROKERS, CONNECTICUT: "Markets should be concerned about potential interference in the Fed's independence." "Dollar plunging is what you'd expect. Short term rates getting hit going much lower is what you'd expect because whoever (Trump) put in would presumably be much more willing to cut rates. "Stocks' reaction is a little muted because firstly traders remain loath to sell, they're just so programmed to try to buy dips that they're not eager to sell." "Secondly because perhaps there are some traders who like the idea of lower rates more than more than the loss of independence." RICK MECKLER, PARTNER, CHERRY LANE INVESTMENTS, A FAMILY INVESTMENT OFFICE, NEW VERNON, NEW JERSEY: "It would be a big mistake on (Trump's) part if he is concerned about the markets and the dollar. An independent Fed gives balance between monetary and fiscal policy. I don't think that lowering rates here any small amount will really impact much about the economy. It might impact the debt interest payments but that's about it." "One problem with this administration is they try and do an awful lot at the same time. And I don't know whether that's to try and get more things through rather than have a battle with Democrats over any one thing." "But investors like orderly, carefully planned moves and this smacks of something that's just creating disorder and ramifications that I don't think the administration has completely thought out." "It's a very unpredictable administration and that Trump in particular seems to take umbrage at the idea that he doesn't follow through on some of these things. So it wouldn't surprise me if they did (fire Powell). It wouldn't surprise me if they didn't. That's one of the problems in assessing investments under this administration is that there often is no clear path as to what's going to happen. And there's an awful lot of rhetoric that doesn't necessarily result in any specific action. So those are recipes for volatility but are not particularly good in terms of planning, either for corporate planning or for investment planning." "It's very similar to the tariff situation. There's a lot of news that could be very meaningful, but no clear indication of whether it's going to come to fruition or not. So it just leaves a lot of investors confused, and many of them sitting on the sidelines trying to get a sense of where we're headed as a country financially." MARCO VAILATI, HEAD OF RESEARCH AND INVESTMENTS, CASSA LOMBARDA, MILAN: "It remains to be seen whether Trump will follow through on this threat. Such a move would almost certainly alarm the market, as it would call into question the Fed's independence from political authority. A less independent Fed, more beholden to this political leadership, would raise concerns — not so much about solvency, but about the very reliability of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency." FRANCESCO PESOLE, FX STRATEGIST, ING, LONDON: "If we get a headline today on Powell (removal), then we are looking at much more bigger sell-off in the dollar. Federal Reserve independence is the foundation the U.S.' status as the No.1 reserve currency." "Given the implications of removing a Fed chair, the reaction is still relatively contained. Euro/dollar is at $1.17 and should be trading higher on this, because the implications are massive. Markets are still not fully pricing this all in. You would expect that if Powell is removed today, then the Fed cuts in September." CHRIS BEAUCHAMP, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST, IG, LONDON: "The news has put the dollar firmly on the back foot but has dragged stocks lower too. The Fed chairman’s departure would leave the independence of the central bank in question. It seems likely that his (Trump's) recent successes in passing his tax and spending bill, and the ceasefire in the Middle East, have emboldened the president to act." "Now we will see if the bond market vigilantes will put the U.S. in their sights again. Such a dramatic move also suggests there is no backing down from tariffs this time around, especially with stocks at record highs." LEE HARDMAN, SENIOR CURRENCY ANALYST, MUFG, LONDON: "If that does happen (Trump fires Powell), it would be very damaging for investor confidence in the dollar, that’s why we’re starting to see the heavy selling, and it could extend further if he were to do so. "It’s not clear-cut whether Trump has the power to fire Powell, so we would expect to see a legal challenge very quickly, but even if it were overruled, the hit to confidence would be long lasting, and it reinforces our bearish outlook on the dollar." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/view-dollar-treasury-prices-tumble-after-report-trump-fire-feds-powell-2025-07-16/

2025-07-16 16:48

BRASILIA/SAO PAULO, July 16 (Reuters) - Brazil on Wednesday urged the U.S. to respond to a trade proposal submitted in May, reaffirming its openness to a "mutually acceptable" deal after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting in August. In a joint statement, Brazil's Foreign Affairs Ministry and the Ministry of Development said the government had sent a letter on Tuesday, reinforcing its May 16 negotiating proposal. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin noted on Monday that the May offer had gone unanswered. Sign up here. "In light of the urgency of the matter, the Brazilian government reiterates its interest in receiving comments from the U.S. government on the proposal," the statement said, suggesting there were "areas of negotiation where we could further explore mutually agreed solutions." Brazil also expressed "indignation" at the planned increase in tariffs from 10% to 50% on its exports to the United States, warning of a "very negative" impact on both economies. The letter from Brasilia also noted that Latin America's largest economy has run persistent trade deficits with the United States in both goods and services, totaling nearly $410 billion over the past 15 years. The statement came a day after U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced an investigation into what he described as Brazil's "unfair" trade practices. Brazil's Solicitor General Jorge Messias said on Wednesday that the U.S. had apparently launched that probe because of the weakness of the initial U.S. case for imposing the 50% tariffs. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-urges-trade-talks-with-us-after-trump-tariff-hike-2025-07-16/

2025-07-16 15:55

WASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is open to the idea of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a source told Reuters on Wednesday. Trump polled some Republican lawmakers on firing Powell and received a positive response, the source said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-open-idea-firing-fed-chair-powell-source-says-2025-07-16/