2026-01-27 06:07

Reuters Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global financial commentary. LAUNCESTON, Australia, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Where exactly is the expected supply glut in the global crude market? The best answer is China, which saw storage flows surge in December, resulting in a surplus of more than 1 million barrels per day for 2025. Sign up here. China's surplus of crude oil jumped to 2.67 million bpd in December, up from 1.88 million bpd in November and the most since the 2.27 million bpd seen in June 2020, when the world's largest crude buyer was gorging on cheap oil at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. For 2025 the volume of surplus crude was 1.13 million bpd, largely steady from the 1.15 million bpd seen in 2024, according to calculations based on official data. China does not disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of its strategic and commercial stockpiles, but an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of oil processed from the total crude available from imports and domestic output. It is worth noting that not all the surplus crude was likely to have been added to storage, with some being processed in plants not captured by the official data. But even allowing for those gaps, it is clear that from March 2025 onwards, China was importing crude at a far higher rate than necessary to meet domestic fuel demand. December's crude imports surged to a record 13.18 million bpd, up 17% from the same month in 2024, with the strong arrivals taking imports for the full year to 11.55 million bpd, another all-time peak and up 4.4% from the prior year. Domestic crude production was 4.19 million bpd, while output for the full year was up 1.5% to 4.32 million bpd. Combining December's imports and domestic production yields 17.37 million bpd of crude available to refiners. December refinery throughput was 14.7 million bpd, meaning that the monthly surplus was 2.67 million bpd. For 2025 China's refiners processed 14.75 million bpd, a record high exceeding the 14.7 million bpd from 2023. Despite the increase in refinery throughput, the surplus for the year amounted to 1.13 million bpd as the total volume of available crude of 15.88 million bpd outweighed refinery processing of 14.75 million bpd. The volume of surplus crude flowing into China largely answers the question as to where the global surplus of crude oil is. WILL CHINA BUYING LAST? Amin Nasser, the chief executive of the world's largest oil exporter Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) , opens new tab, told the Davos forum last week that "oil glut predictions are seriously exaggerated." That statement really only holds true for as long as China keeps buying way more oil than it needs to meet domestic demand and exports of refined products. What would happen to the crude price if China pared back its imports by around 1 million bpd in 2026 from 2025 levels? This would act as a drag on the crude price and make it challenging to outline a bullish case in the absence of a major supply interruption caused by geopolitical conflict. The question is whether China is likely to continue boosting its crude stockpiles in 2026. China has long aimed to build its strategic reserves by as much as 500 million barrels, meaning there is plenty of scope for it to continue to buy more than it needs to meet demand. But the key factor will be price. China has shown in the past that it tends to pull back on imports when oil prices rise too high or too quickly. China made a rare draw on stockpiles in the first two months of 2025, a period after a rise in global benchmark Brent futures to a six-month high above $80 a barrel. Similarly, China tends to boost imports when crude prices fall, with the recent strength in imports coming after Brent entered a sustained downtrend from July last year to an eight-month low of $58.72 a barrel by December 16. It's likely that China will continue to buy extra crude for as long as prices remain at levels deemed reasonable. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-soaks-up-crude-oil-glut-only-if-price-is-right-2026-01-27/

2026-01-27 06:06

LITTLETON, Colorado, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Surging natural gas prices in the U.S. and Europe have dominated energy market attention so far this year, but several sector stocks that have hit multi-year highs likely encapsulate the broader themes driving energy investing in 2026 as a whole. A slew of North America-listed firms - including the makers of grid components, reactor fuels and gas extraction equipment - are acting as early gauges on where investors are putting their money to work across the energy and power landscapes this year. Sign up here. Here's a breakdown of some of the stand-out stocks that have surpassed key price milestones already in 2026 and look set to remain popular investment vehicles for thematic positioning across the North American energy space in 2026. THE GUTS OF THE GRID Firms that produce parts, components and software that help connect and power electric grids and facilities are well placed to benefit from the ongoing AI and data center boom, which looks set to extend into 2026 and beyond. Several North American companies specialize in developing materials and services dedicated to the grid space, including Fluor Corporation (FLR.N) , opens new tab, MYR Group (MYRG.O) , opens new tab and MasTec (MTZ.N) , opens new tab. Their share prices have climbed 12% to 15% in 2026. However, the top year-to-date performer is Wesco International (WCC.N) , opens new tab, which is up over 17% and has dedicated segments covering communications, power generation and distribution, electrical and lighting, and security services. "We believe core themes of data center, electrification, and grid investments will drive healthy growth" for Wesco, Jefferies equity analysts said in a recent report. POWER GRABS Firms exposed to the rush to generate and distribute more power across the country are also gaining. Stand-out firms in this category include Baker Hughes (BKR.O) , opens new tab, which manufactures and services gas extraction equipment as well as high-efficiency gas turbines which are in high demand among utilities and data center operators alike. Baker Hughes' shares are up over 20% year-to-date to their highest since 2008. "One advantage some investors may not appreciate is how core industrial and energy technology is to our Baker Hughes thesis. This business has inherently higher returns and growth than just about any sub-industry in oilfield services," Morningstar analysts noted this month. Bloom Energy (BE.N) , opens new tab also manufactures products that are in high demand among utilities, and recently signed a record-large deal with utility American Electric Power (AEP.O) , opens new tab for Bloom-made fuel cells that help convert natural gas into electricity. Data centers that want to generate their own power - rather than rely on connecting to local grids - are also viable customers for Bloom, which has seen its share price soar 60% this year. "Behind-the-meter power solutions are in the early stages of ramping up and (Bloom Energy) is well-positioned to capture high market share if it can increase its production capacity quickly enough this year," Clean Street analysts wrote this month. Fluence Energy (FLNC.O) , opens new tab is also riding the power demand wave, with its shares up over 35% year-to-date. The energy storage giant has over 46 gigawatt hours of energy storage assets in operation across 48 markets globally, and is "one of the few players able to deliver compliant solutions at scale," Jefferies analysts wrote this week. REACTOR FUEL AND BATTERY ANODES Uranium Energy (UEC.A) , opens new tab is another high-flier this year, gaining over 55% already in 2026 as U.S. power firms and authorities look to revive the domestic nuclear power industry. As the only vertically-integrated nuclear fuel supplier in the U.S., UEC is almost unique in the U.S. nuclear power supply chain. "By owning production, processing capacity and eventually, conversion, UEC has the potential to capitalize on the need for a domestic uranium market amid the most significant supply shock in decades," H.C. Wainwright analysts published this week. Northern Graphite (NGC.V) , opens new tab, a Canadian company that mines and refines graphite for use in battery anodes, fuel cells and other applications, is another niche play that has seen its share price gain over 50% this year. The highly volatile penny stock ranged from 8 Canadian cents to 22 cents in 2025, but has since climbed beyond the 30 cents mark for the first time since 2023 on news of a joint venture with an investment company to build and operate a battery anode production facility in Saudi Arabia. The move is part of Saudi Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia's plan to electrify 30% of its vehicle fleet by 2030 and generate new jobs and industries within the Kingdom. Northern Graphite is also the only graphite producer in North America, so the company will likely also benefit from the ongoing near-shoring push to ensure supplies of critical materials are not wholly controlled by China. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/six-high-flying-energy-stocks-catching-investor-interest-early-2026-2026-01-27/

2026-01-27 06:05

JAKARTA, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Twenty-three soldiers trapped by landslides in Indonesia's West Java have been confirmed dead, a navy spokesperson said on Tuesday. The landslide hit Pasir Langu village in Bandung Barat region early on Saturday and was triggered by heavy rains starting a day earlier. Sign up here. The village was located in a hilly area of the province about 100 km (62.14 miles) southeast of Indonesia's capital, Jakarta. The 23 Marines were caught in the landslide during training exercises for Indonesia-Papua New Guinea border patrols on Saturday, First Admiral Tunggul, the Navy spokesperson said. "The incident occurred due to extreme weather conditions with heavy rainfall, which caused a landslide at the training site," said Tunggul, who goes by only one name. As of Tuesday afternoon, the death toll from the landslides had risen to 20 from the previous 17, with 42 people still missing, said Abdul Muhari, a spokesperson at Indonesia's disaster mitigation agency. It was not immediately clear if the soldiers were included in those declared dead by the agency. At least 800 rescuers, military and police personnel along with nine excavators have been deployed to find the missing people. Muhari said 685 residents of the stricken village had been evacuated to local government buildings. The landslide happened during the peak of the wet season on Java island. Floods hit several parts of Indonesia last week, including Jakarta and some cities in West Java and Central Java. The landslide occurred two months after cyclone-induced floods and landslides on the island of Sumatra killed 1,200 people, destroyed homes and displaced over a million residents. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/twenty-three-soldiers-died-indonesias-west-java-landslides-official-says-2026-01-27/

2026-01-27 05:53

US earnings season picks up speed US health insurers tumble Gold, silver climb again Dollar index hits four-year low NEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Global stocks rose for a fifth straight session on Tuesday, reaching an intraday record as the pace of the U.S. earnings season picked up, while the dollar sank to its lowest level in nearly four years ahead of a policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were higher, with the benchmark S&P index registering a record close, as investors gauged a flurry of major earnings releases, ‌including results from airplane maker Boeing (BA.N) , opens new tab and shipping company United Parcel Service (UPS.N) , opens new tab, which said it would cut up to 30,000 jobs in operational roles this year. Sign up here. The Dow Industrials were pulled lower by a 1.6% decline in Boeing, along with a drop of about 20% in UnitedHealth (UNH.N) , opens new tab, which said its 2026 revenue would shrink. Health insurers were lower overall in the wake of a lower-than-expected Medicare reimbursement proposal for 2027 from the government. The decline in UnitedHealth accounted for roughly 420 points of downside pressure on the Dow. Markets were also awaiting earnings this week from heavyweight names that are part of the so-called Magnificent Seven, including Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab, Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab, Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab and Meta Platforms (META.O) , opens new tab, while the Fed is scheduled to release its ‌policy statement on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 408.99 points, or 0.83%, to 49,003.41, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 28.37 points, or 0.41%, to 6,978.60 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab rose 215.74 points, or 0.91%, to 23,817.10. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 8.92 points, or 0.85%, to 1,053.09 and was on track for a fifth straight daily gain, its longest run of gains this year, after reaching an intraday record of 1,053.88. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index closed up 0.58%, boosted in part by a 1.8% jump in bank (.SX7P) , opens new tab shares. South Korea scrambled to ‍assure the U.S. it remained committed to implementing a trade deal after President Donald Trump said he would hike tariffs on autos and other imports from its ally, citing a delay in enacting the pact reached last year. It was the latest tariff threat from Trump after he announced plans to issue levies on several European countries last week over Greenland. The Korean won strengthened 0.97% against the greenback to 1,431.85 per dollar after falling as much as 0.63%. The dollar index , which measures the ⁠greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.9% to 96.23 and was on track for its biggest daily percentage drop since April, after falling to a four-year low of 95.566. The euro was up 0.81% ‍at $1.1975. The greenback has struggled this month due to a range of factors, including Trump's erratic policymaking and attempts to erode the independence of the Fed. It weakened to a session low on Tuesday after Trump said it was "doing great." "The dollar ‌has had ‌over the past ten days one of the biggest moves it's had in the past five years... It puts a huge pressure on commodities, and we're seeing oil up. We're seeing commodities up, and you're seeing all those stocks moving up in a very aggressive way," said Adam Rich, deputy chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Vaughan Nelson Investment Management in Houston. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 1.23% to 152.26 after hitting 152.08, its lowest level since October 29, while Sterling strengthened 1.14% to $1.3833. The yen had come under pressure after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ascended to her position in October, in part due ⁠to worries over Japan's government debt as Takaichi based ⁠her campaign for next month's elections on expanded stimulus measures. But the Japanese currency strengthened sharply on Friday as chatter about rate checks by the New York Fed as well as the Bank of Japan indicated a heightened risk of joint U.S.-Japan intervention to halt the yen's slide. Markets are also awaiting the latest policy statement from the Fed, although the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, according to CME's FedWatch Tool , opens new tab. However, the nomination of a potential replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell in May, ‍the effort to fire Governor Lisa Cook, and a criminal investigation by the Trump administration into the central bank chief all loom over the meeting. As geopolitical tensions continue to affect markets, they have buttressed precious metals such as gold. Spot gold was up 3.19% at $5,174.09 an ounce after reaching an intraday record of $5,186.59. Spot silver surged 7.93% to $121.13 an ounce, after hitting a record $117.69 on Monday. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday they see "meaningful upside risk" to their forecast of gold to hit $5,400 by December while Deutsche Bank said it thinks $6,000 "is achievable with a weaker dollar this year." U.S. crude settled up 2.9% at $62.39 a barrel and Brent ‍rose to settle at $67.57 per barrel, up 3.02% on the day, as producers reeled from a winter storm that stunted crude production and drove U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports to zero over the weekend. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-01-27/

2026-01-27 05:37

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu Donald Trump did it again. Out of the blue, the U.S. President declared that he was raising tariffs on South Korea to 25%, from 15%, for not enacting the trade deal agreed ‌last July. That affects autos, lumber and pharma, yet stocks there jumped 2% to record highs anyway. Sign up here. Initially, South Korea's KOSPI (.KS11) , opens new tab did fall over 1%, but that just lured buyers looking for exposure to Asia's best-performing market of 2025. With its Industry Minister heading to the U.S. soon, there is every chance ‌of de-escalation, and traders were again betting on TACO - Trump always chickens out. Of course there is little surprise Seoul isn't rushing to invest hundreds of billions in the U.S., when the threat of random tariffs is a permanent feature of the Trump administration. The tariff ‍uncertainty did add to the appeal of precious metals, with gold and silver charging back towards their record highs. Gold climbed 1% to $5,063 an ounce, while silver vaulted 5% to $109 an ounce. Stocks in Asia were generally upbeat amid ⁠hopes that blockbuster earnings from the so-called U.S. Magnificent Seven, starting with Meta (META.O) , opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab and Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab ‍on Wednesday, will help extend the bull market into 2026. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab rallied ‌1% ‌to a new record high. Even Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab gained 0.7% despite the yen holding near the strongest level in over two months, which would normally be considered a negative for its exporters. European bourses are headed for a stronger open, with EURO STOXX 50 futures up 0.3%. Nasdaq futures gained ⁠almost 0.6%, while S&P ⁠500 futures edged up 0.3%. Next up, it is looking light on the global economic calendar until the Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday where no move in interest rates is expected. However, the meeting will be overshadowed by a DOJ ‍investigation into Chair Jerome Powell, which should make for an interesting press conference afterwards. If Powell floats the idea of not stepping down as a governor in May, as he is entitled to do under Fed rules, how Trump reacts is anybody's guess. Key developments that could influence ‍markets on Tuesday: -- Earnings from LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior -- U.S. ADP Weekly Employment Change, Conference Board January Consumer Confidence https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/global-markets-view-europe-2026-01-27/

2026-01-27 05:26

MUMBAI, Jan 27 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee firmed slightly on Tuesday, helped along by a broadly weaker dollar and the boost from a landmark trade agreement between India and the European Union, which is expected to cut tariffs on nearly all Indian exports. The rupee closed at 91.72 per dollar, up 0.2% from its closing level on Friday. Indian financial markets were shut on Monday for a local holiday. The currency's modest recovery followed a slump to its all-time low of 91.9650 on Friday. Sign up here. India and the EU have finalised a long-pending landmark trade deal, both sides said on Tuesday. Over a period of seven years, the European bloc will cut tariffs on 99.5% goods traded, with the pact will also reducing or eliminating levies on a slew of EU goods coming to India, including machinery, electrical equipment and chemicals. The agreement comes on the heels of India finalising trade pacts with Britain, New Zealand and Oman, even as the South Asian nation continues to grapple with steep levies on exports to the U.S. On the day, broad-based dollar-selling interest helped lift the rupee, traders said. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab ended up by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, on Tuesday. Despite the day's rise, persistent foreign selling of local stocks - to the tune of more than $3.5 billion this month so far - remains a sore spot for the currency. Foreign investors net pulled out a record nearly $19 billion from stocks last year. Absent a turnaround in flows, traders and analysts reckon that the rupee's fortunes are unlikely to reverse and that a gradual depreciation is likely to persist. In the near-term, the rupee is likely to hover in the 91.20-92.10 range with India's federal budget announcement on February 1 the next major cue in focus, said Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange research analyst at HDFC Securities. , Elsewhere, the dollar index was little changed at 97.1 while Asian currencies were split between modest gains and losses. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/reeling-rupee-receives-lifeline-dollars-plunge-near-4-month-low-2026-01-27/