2025-07-15 11:15

LONDON, July 15 (Reuters) - After a relatively quiet start to the week, markets on Tuesday will have to navigate a torrent of new information on U.S. inflation, bank earnings and Chinese growth, with a fresh jump from chip giant Nvidia thrown into the mix. I'll dig into all of this below. Make sure to check out today's column, where I discuss how markets are reacting to the renewed pressure President Trump is putting on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Sign up here. Today's Market Minute * China’s economy slowed less than expected in the second quarter in a show of resilience against U.S. tariffs, though analysts warn that weak demand at home and rising global trade risks will ramp up pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus. * The 30% tariff on European goods threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump would, if implemented, be a game-changer for Europe, wiping out whole chunks of transatlantic commerce and forcing a rethink of its export-led economic model. * Tesla launched its Model Y at about $70,000 in India, the highest price among major markets, as the U.S. automaker grappling with slowing sales bets on prospects in a country CEO Elon Musk has long criticised for its high import tariffs. * China's imports of major commodities presented a mixed picture in the first half, writes ROI columnist Clyde Russell, but if there is a clear trend it is that the world's top buyer of natural resources is increasingly sensitive to prices. * While the United States appears well on its way to a record corn crop, the top exporter is not completely immune to yield barriers moving forward. Read the latest from ROI agriculture columnist Karen Braun. CPI, banks and Nvidia, oh my! The artificial intelligence bellwether (.NVDA) , opens new tab, already up more than 20% for the year and the first company to top a $4 trillion valuation, rose another 4% out of hours overnight after it said it plans to resume sales of the H2O AI chips to mainland China just days after its CEO met U.S. President Donald Trump. "The U.S. government has assured Nvidia that licenses will be granted, and Nvidia hopes to start deliveries soon," said the company, whose chief executive, Jensen Huang, is in Beijing. The move is controversial in the geopolitical context and the White House, which has previously expressed concern that the Chinese military could use AI chips to develop weapons, did not respond to a request for comment. After Wall Street stock indexes ended in positive territory on Monday, stock futures were higher again first thing today. Earlier, Chinese stocks eked out modest gains after economic updates showed GDP growth there slowed down by less than expected in the second quarter despite the global tariff turmoil - registering a 5.2% year-on-year expansion of the economy. June numbers were more of a mixed bag, with an acceleration of Chinese industrial production offset by a miss in retail sales growth and another monthly decline in house prices. The yuan was largely unmoved by the sweep of data. Part of the stasis is due to the day's big releases stateside. The June update on U.S. consumer prices is clearly critical to Federal Reserve thinking on whether tariff rises are aggravating the inflation picture enough to keep interest rates on hold - despite an almost daily insistence by Trump that rates should be cut by more than 3 percentage points. Trump once again on Monday said Fed rates - now held in a 4.25-4.50% range - should be 1% or less. Adding a new line of pressure on the central bank, White House officials stepped up pressure on Chair Jerome Powell over what they claim were serious cost overruns in the bank's renovation of its headquarters. The CPI release is expected to show the core annual inflation rate picking up pace last month to 3.0% - well above the Fed's 2% target. Edgy U.S. Treasury yields slipped back a touch ahead of the report, with 30-year bond yields retreating from the 5% mark. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab also slipped back slightly. Japanese debt concerns alarmed in the background, however. The 30-year JGB yield jumped to a record 3.20%, while 20-year yields soared to their highest since November 1999 at 2.65% and 10-year yields scaled the highest since October 2008. Investors in Japanese bonds are bracing for a potential power shift in upper house elections this weekend that could strain the country's already frail finances. Before we see the U.S. inflation update today, the U.S. second-quarter earnings season kicks into gear with the big U.S. banks reporting - likely flattered by the burst of financial market trading revenues during the turbulent three months despite still subdued investment banking activity. Elsewhere, crude oil prices fell back further after Trump's lengthy 50-day deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war and avoid sanctions eased immediate supply concerns. Oil prices had climbed in anticipation of sanctions both on Russia and countries buying oil from Moscow, but gave up gains as traders doubted the U.S. would actually impose steep tariffs on third countries. European stocks pushed higher, meantime, even after the weekend's 30% U.S. tariff threat on imports from the region. Aircraft, machinery, cars, chemicals and medical devices are the leading big-ticket items on the latest list of U.S. goods the European Commission has proposed to impose tariffs on if talks with Washington do not yield an agreement on trade. But European ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday remained convinced they can bring Trump back from the brink before his Aug. 1 deadline and reach a deal that would keep the $1.7 trillion two-way trading relationship broadly intact. And German investor morale rose more than expected this month, the ZEW institute said, reporting an increase in its sentiment index to 52.7 points from 47.5 points in June. In Britain, set piece speeches from finance minister Rachel Reeves and Bank of England boss Andrew Bailey are awaited later. Reeves announced a push on Tuesday to get more savers to invest in company shares as part of a wide-ranging set of initiatives to boost Britain's financial services sector. Britain's blue chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) , opens new tab briefly topped 9,000 points for the first time earlier and the pound steadied. Bitcoin recoiled back below $120,000 on Tuesday after a roaring start to the week saw it hit a new record of $123,153 the day earlier. Chart of the day Major U.S. banks are expected to report stronger profits later on Tuesday, driven by buoyant trading and a modest rebound in hobbled investment banking activity. JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) , opens new tab, Citigroup (C.N) , opens new tab and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) , opens new tab kick off second-quarter earnings on Tuesday with a focus on their outlooks at a time when economic uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies remains high. While there has been some stirring in investment banking in the second quarter, global banks, including top U.S. lenders, are expected to report a 10% gain in markets revenue due to the volatility around shifting U.S. tariff policies. Citigroup's stock leads the pack after a rollercoaster start to 2025. Today's events to watch * U.S. June consumer price report (8:30 AM EDT); Canada June consumer prices (8:30 AM EDT) * U.S. corporate earnings: BlackRock, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo, State Street, Omnicom, JBHunt * Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Fed Board Governor Michael Barr, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Richmond President Thomas Barkin all speak * Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and finance minister Rachel Reeves address City of London at annual Mansion House dinner Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-07-15/

2025-07-15 11:02

Government aims to complete legislative process this year Uber welcomes regulation but says concerned about cap on number of vehicles Operating without a licence could mean imprisonment and fines HONG KONG, July 15 (Reuters) - The Hong Kong government laid out proposals on Tuesday to regulate ride-hailing platforms, such as Uber (UBER.N) , opens new tab, following years of talks and complaints from the city's licensed taxi drivers that they face unfair competition. Uber in 2014 became the first ride-hailing platform in Hong Kong and has operated without formal regulation. Sign up here. Police raided its office in 2015 and have arrested Uber drivers for operating without licences. The city's taxi industry, which has been struggling with declining income, has said the lack of regulation gives ride-hailing services an unfair advantage. In a paper submitted to the legislature, the Transport and Logistics Bureau said all platforms providing ride-hailing services must obtain a licence and comply with specific conditions. Anyone who provides ride-hailing platform services without a valid licence may be subject to imprisonment and fines. In a statement to Reuters, a spokesperson for Uber HK said the regulation was an "important milestone". "We are encouraged to see safety and service standards - such as mandatory insurance, driver examinations, and regular vehicle inspections - placed at the centre of the proposed regime," the spokesperson said. But the statement also said Uber was concerned about a proposed cap on the number of ride-sharing vehicles. "Artificial limits risk increasing wait times, raising prices for riders, and restricting earning opportunities for drivers," it said, adding Uber looked forward to continued talks with the government and other stakeholders. According to a survey carried out by Uber of more than 4,800 Hong Kong drivers, nearly 80% fear that strict quotas and high licensing fees could threaten their livelihoods. The city's leader, John Lee, told a news conference on Tuesday there was a consensus in society that ride-hailing services must be regulated to protect the safety of passengers. "I agree that the issue is complex, but I think the issue should not be delayed any further and the government must come up with a solution," Lee said. He also said it was necessary to create an environment in which the ride-hailing services and traditional taxis can co-exist. The Transport and Logistics Bureau said quota arrangements would be proposed in the first half of 2026. Prior to that, the proposals allow for the legal amendments to be submitted to Hong Kong's Legislative Council for approval in the third quarter of this year. Under the new law, anyone seeking a ride-hailing drivers' licence must be at least 21 years old, have held a private car licence for at least one year, have no serious traffic convictions in the last five years, and pass mandatory assessments and training. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/hong-kong-government-proposes-first-ride-hailing-regulation-2025-07-15/

2025-07-15 11:01

US had nearly $18 billion trade gap with Indonesia last year Trump says tariff letters to smaller countries coming soon European Commission targets $84 billion worth of US imports EU seeking deal but preparing retaliation, trade chief says WASHINGTON/BRUSSELS, July 15 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. would impose a 19% tariff on goods from Indonesia under a new agreement with the Southeast Asian country and more deals were in the works as he continued to press for what he views as better terms with trading partners and ways to shrink a huge U.S. trade deficit. The pact with the relatively minor U.S. trading partner is among the handful struck so far by the Trump administration ahead of an August 1 deadline for tariffs on most U.S. imports to rise again. The accord came as the top U.S. trading partner - the European Union - readied retaliatory measures should talks with Washington fail. Sign up here. As that deadline approached, negotiations were under way with other nations eager to avoid more U.S. levies beyond a baseline 10% on most goods that has been in place since April. Trump's roll-out of the policies has often been chaotic. His moves have upended decades of negotiated reductions in global trade barriers and roiled international financial markets and economic activity along the way. Based on Trump tariff announcements through Sunday, Yale Budget Lab estimated the U.S. effective average tariff rates will rise to 20.6% from between 2% and 3% before Trump's return to the White House in January. Consumption shifts would bring the rate down to 19.7%, but it's still the highest since 1933. Trump outlined an Indonesia deal similar to a pact struck recently with Vietnam, with a flat tariff on exports to the U.S. roughly double the current 10% and no levies on U.S. exports going there. It also included a penalty rate for so-called transhipments of goods from China via Indonesia and a commitment to buy some U.S. goods. "They are going to pay 19% and we are going to pay nothing ... we will have full access into Indonesia, and we have a couple of those deals that are going to be announced," Trump said outside the Oval Office. Trump later announced on his Truth Social platform that Indonesia had agreed to buy $15 billion of U.S. energy products, $4.5 billion of American farm products and 50 Boeing (BA.N) , opens new tab jets, though no time frame was specified. TRUMP: INDIA TALKS MOVING SAME WAY Indonesia's total trade with the U.S. - totalling just under $40 billion in 2024 - does not rank in the top 15, but it has been growing. U.S. exports to Indonesia rose 3.7% last year, while imports from there were up 4.8%, leaving the U.S. with a goods trade deficit of nearly $18 billion. The top U.S. import categories from Indonesia, according to U.S. Census Bureau data from the International Trade Centre's TradeMap tool, last year were palm oil, electronics equipment including data routers and switches, footwear, car tires, natural rubber and frozen shrimp. Susiwijono Moegiarso, a senior official with Indonesia's Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, told Reuters in a text message: "We are preparing a joint statement between U.S. and Indonesia that will explain the size of reciprocal tariff for Indonesia including the tariff deal, non-tariff and commercial arrangements. We will inform (the public) soon." Trump had threatened the country with a 32% tariff rate starting August 1 in a letter sent to its president last week. He sent similar letters to about two dozen trading partners this month, including Canada, Japan and Brazil, laying out tariff rates ranging from 20% to 50%, plus a 50% tariff on copper. Speaking in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, Trump said he favored blanket tariffs over complicated negotiations, but his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick were keen to land more trade agreements. Upon his arrival back in Washington, Trump told reporters that letters would be going out soon for many smaller countries, suggesting they would face a tariff of "a little over 10%." The August 1 deadline gives targeted countries time to negotiate about lower tariff rates. Some economists have also noted Trump's pattern of backing off his tariff threats. Since launching his tariff policy, Trump has clinched only a few deals, falling short of earlier promises to land "90 deals in 90 days." So far, framework agreements have been reached with the United Kingdom and Vietnam, and an interim deal has been struck with China to forestall the steepest of Trump's tariffs while negotiations continue between Washington and Beijing. Trump said talks with India were moving "along that same line," adding, "We're going to have access to India. And you have to understand, we had no access into any of these countries. Our people couldn't go in. And now we're getting access because of what we're doing with the tariffs." EU READIES RETALIATION The breakthrough with Indonesia came as the European Commission, which oversees trade for the EU, prepared to target 72 billion euros ($84.1 billion) worth of U.S. goods - from Boeing (BA.N) , opens new tab aircraft and bourbon whiskey to cars - for possible tariffs if trade talks with Washington fail. Trump is threatening a 30% tariff on imports from the EU from August 1, a level European officials say is unacceptable and would end normal trade between two of the world's largest markets. The list, sent to EU member states and seen by Reuters on Tuesday, pre-dated Trump's move over the weekend to ramp up pressure on the 27-nation bloc and responded instead to U.S. duties on cars and car parts and a 10% baseline tariff. The package also covers chemicals, medical devices, electrical and precision equipment as well as agriculture and food products - a range of fruits and vegetables, along with wine, beer and spirits - valued at 6.35 billion euros. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-planes-cars-drinks-eu-list-potential-tariffs-2025-07-15/

2025-07-15 10:57

July 15 (Reuters) - India's AWL Agri Business (AWLA.NS) , opens new tab, previously known as Adani Wilmar, reported a nearly 25% fall in quarterly profit on Tuesday, as higher prices of branded palm oil led consumers to opt for cheaper alternatives. Indian consumers operating on tight budgets due to slow wage growth have been increasingly shunning large brands in response to price increases. Sign up here. AWL, which makes the Fortune brand of cooking oil, reported a consolidated net profit of 2.36 billion rupees ($27.51 million) for the first quarter ended June 30. Sales volumes in its mainstay edible oil business, which accounted for four-fifths of its topline, dropped 4% on slow palm oil sales, even as higher prices helped push revenue higher. Volumes in the segment "remained under pressure, largely due to sluggish palm oil sales driven by its relatively higher prices," AWL said, adding it lost market share during the quarter. Overall revenue rose 21% to 170.59 billion rupees. AWL's food business, which sells staples such as rice and pulses, posted a 5% fall in volumes, excluding a one-off impact, as wheat flour sales struggled due to soft demand, stiff local competition and higher prices. Shares fell 2.2% post-results. In the coming quarters, AWL expects sales volumes to rebound, with palm oil prices stabilising and inflation slowing to a more than six-year low last month. "As the inflation comes down ... food is the first product on which consumers are a little more likely to spend liberally," CEO Angshu Mallick told Reuters, adding consumers would now buy more branded foods, including tea and bread. Rival Marico (MRCO.NS) , opens new tab, which sells the Saffola brand of cooking oil, is yet to report results. It said in an update earlier this month that quarterly revenue would grow in the low-20s percentage range on improving rural demand. ($1 = 85.7870 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-awl-agri-business-posts-profit-fall-muted-consumer-demand-2025-07-15/

2025-07-15 10:51

NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - Google has agreed to secure as much as 3 gigawatts of U.S. hydropower in the world's largest corporate clean power pact for hydroelectricity, the company said on Tuesday, as Big Tech pursues the expansion of energy-hungry data centers. The deal between Google and Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.TO) , opens new tab includes initial 20-year power purchase agreements, totaling $3 billion, for electricity generated from two hydropower facilities in Pennsylvania. Sign up here. The tech giant will also invest $25 billion in data centers across Pennsylvania and neighboring states over the next two years, Semafor reported on Tuesday. The technology industry is intensifying the hunt for massive amounts of clean electricity to power data centers needed for artificial intelligence and cloud computing, which has driven U.S. power consumption to record highs after nearly two decades of stagnation. Ruth Porat, president and chief investment officer at Google parent company Alphabet, is expected to discuss the news at an AI summit in Pittsburgh. U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to attend the event, where $70 billion in AI and energy investments are expected to be announced. "This collaboration with Brookfield is a significant step forward, ensuring clean energy supply in the PJM region where we operate," Amanda Peterson Corio, Google's head of data center energy, said in a statement. Over roughly the last year, Google has struck several first-of-a-kind power purchase agreements, including for carbon-free geothermal energy and advanced nuclear. The company is also working with the country's largest electricity grid operator, PJM Interconnection, to use AI to speed up the process of hooking up new power supplies to the grid. In the latest deal, Google said it has signed an initial framework agreement with Brookfield, owner of Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP.N) , opens new tab, which develops and operates renewable energy plants. Its two hydropower sites in Pennsylvania will be upgraded and relicensed as part of the arrangement, the companies said. Google said it plans to expand the deal eventually beyond those sites to other parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/google-inks-3-billion-us-hydropower-deal-largest-clean-energy-agreement-its-kind-2025-07-15/

2025-07-15 10:06

MUMBAI, July 15(Reuters) - The Indian rupee edged up on Tuesday, tracking gains in most Asian peers, as the dollar index dipped ahead of a key U.S. inflation reading, which is expected to provide cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary direction. The rupee closed at 85.81 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.2% on the day. Sign up here. While the local currency fleetingly fell below the 86 handle in the previous session, its quick recovery also prompted short wagers on the currency to be liquidated, adding to its upward momentum, traders said. The rupee's range-bound behaviour over the last two weeks has also sparked interest in selling short-term volatility among large corporates and interbank participants, bankers said. The dollar index was down 0.2% at 97.9, with most Asian currencies rising, while the offshore Chinese yuan was little changed. "We expect INR to trade with a strengthening bias in the near term, unless India gets hit by higher tariffs compared to the region," ING said in a note. India is among the few large U.S. trading partners yet to receive a letter from the White House on a country-specific tariff rate. Negotiations between the two nations for a trade deal are currently ongoing. ING expects the rupee to trade at 86.50 against the U.S. dollar in 6 months and decline to 88 in a year's time. The rupee had hit its all-time low of 87.95 in February this year. Data released on Tuesday showed that India's merchandise trade deficit (INTRD=ECI) , opens new tab in June was narrower-than-expected at $18.78 billion. Meanwhile, dollar-rupee forward premiums ticked up ahead of the release of U.S. consumer inflation data later in the day. Economists polled by Reuters have forecast the month-on-month core U.S. CPI to rise 0.3% in June, up from 0.1% in May. The odds of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July are under 5%, while September odds are a tad above 60%, as per CME's FedWatch tool. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-creeps-higher-alongside-most-asian-peers-us-cpi-print-focus-2025-07-15/