2025-07-15 03:05
Analysts expect a 52% surge in second-quarter profit TSMC benefiting more than other chip foundries from AI boom Earnings call at 0600 GMT on Thursday TAIPEI, July 15 (Reuters) - TSMC (2330.TW) , opens new tab, the world's main producer of advanced AI chips, is expected to post a 52% jump in second-quarter profit to record levels, though U.S. tariffs and a strong Taiwan dollar could weigh on its outlook. Artificial intelligence-related demand continues to boom and while foundry industry revenue will probably grow 17% to 18% this year, sales for TSMC, by virtue of its market-leading position, will likely expand closer to 30%, said Mario Morales, group vice president at research firm IDC. Sign up here. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world's largest contract chipmaker and a key supplier to Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab and Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab, is forecast to report net profit of T$377.4 billion ($12.9 billion) for the three months through June 30, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 21 analysts. SmartEstimates place greater weight on forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate. TSMC has already flagged a rise in second-quarter revenue of 38.6%. Any profit result above T$374.68 billion would mark the company's highest-ever quarterly net income and its sixth consecutive quarter of profit growth. It remains unclear just how much U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs will affect TSMC. Taiwan was threatened with a 32% reciprocal tariff rate in April but has yet to be notified of an updated figure that some countries have received. Trump also said this month that tariffs on semiconductors are likely to come soon. The company said in June that U.S. tariffs were having some indirect impact, noting they can lead to slightly higher prices, which may in turn weigh on demand. In March, TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in the U.S. alongside Trump at the White House, on top of $65 billion pledged for three Arizona plants - two of which have been built. Another key issue is the Taiwan dollar's 12% appreciation against the greenback so far this year. "The exchange rate is a bigger concern as so much TSMC revenue is in USD," said Dan Nystedt, vice-president at TriOrient, an Asia-based private investment firm. TSMC has said a 1% appreciation in the Taiwan dollar typically reduces its gross margin by 0.4 percentage points. In June, the company said the Taiwan dollar's appreciation had shaved more than 3 percentage points off its gross margin. The company is due to report on Thursday and will provide third-quarter guidance during an earnings call scheduled for 0600 GMT. Shares in TSMC surged some 80% last year but have climbed just 3.7% for the year to date on worries about tariffs and unfavourable currency rates. ($1 = 29.2610 Taiwan dollars) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/tsmc-quarterly-profit-seen-soaring-record-trump-tariffs-forex-concern-2025-07-15/
2025-07-15 03:00
MUMBAI, July 15 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to hold near the key 86-per-dollar level on Tuesday, with traders awaiting U.S. inflation data that could influence expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open nearly unchanged from 85.9850 on Monday. The Indian currency spent much of Monday trading in a narrow range around the 86 level. Sign up here. Price action "absolutely suggests" 86-86.10 is a supply zone, a currency trader at a bank said, noting that a large UK-based bank was on offer on USD/INR on Monday. The pair "is well-anchored" around 86, with U.S. tariff uncertainty lingering and Treasury yields inching higher. "I doubt the upcoming U.S. inflation data will shift the tone much," he added. Investors will be watching the June U.S. inflation data due later on Tuesday to gauge how much room the Federal Reserve has to cut rates. Markets are currently pricing in two rate cuts in 2025, with the first widely expected in September. Economists have warned that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs could add upward pressure on inflation. The June print will be closely scrutinised for any signs of those effects filtering through to consumer prices. Goldman Sachs said in a note that it expects June core CPI to accelerate to 0.23% on-month, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.93%. It expects moderate upward pressure from tariffs on select categories that are particularly exposed. Looking ahead, the bank said tariffs are likely to deliver a somewhat larger boost to monthly inflation prints. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher before the inflation data, with the 10-year yield hovering near its highest level in a month, lending support to the dollar. Asian currencies were mostly weaker on Tuesday, reflecting cautious sentiment. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.10; onshore one-month forward premium at 10 paisa ** Dollar index at 98.06 ** Brent crude futures down 0.3% at $69 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.44% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $523.6 million worth of Indian shares on July 11 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $31.4 million worth of Indian bonds on July 11 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-dig-its-heels-near-86usd-before-us-inflation-data-test-2025-07-15/
2025-07-15 00:53
JAKARTA, July 15 (Reuters) - Indonesian rescuers found alive on Tuesday 11 people missing at sea who had survived a boat capsize in bad weather by swimming for at least six hours to the nearest island, officials said. Two boats and dozens of rescuers hunted for those missing after the boat with 18 aboard overturned off the Mentawai Islands in the province of West Sumatra at about 11 a.m. on Monday, regional officials said. Sign up here. "It was raining hard when the incident happened," island official Rinto Wardana told Reuters. "Some of the passengers managed to swim and reach the nearest island." Seven had been rescued earlier, Wardana added. Ten of those on board were local government officials on a business trip to the town of Tuapejat, the boat's destination when it left Sikakap, another small town in the Mentawai Islands. . The Mentawai Islands consist of four main islands and many smaller ones. Boats and ferries are a regular mode of transport in Indonesia, an archipelago of more than 17,000 islands, where accidents are caused by bad weather and lax safety standards that often allow vessels to be overloaded. When a ferry sank this month near the tourist resort island of Bali with 65 aboard, 30 passengers survived, while 18 died and 17 went missing. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/boat-capsizes-off-indonesias-mentawai-islands-11-people-missing-2025-07-15/
2025-07-15 00:20
Potential sanctions on Russia could alter oil market outlook, ING analysts note China's economic data supportive for prices despite global growth concerns NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped by less than 1% on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump's 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine and avoid sanctions eased concerns about any immediate supply disruption. Brent crude futures settled down 50 cents, or 0.7%, at $68.71 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 46 cents, or 0.7%, at $66.52. Sign up here. "The focus has been on Donald Trump. There was some fear he might target Russia with sanctions immediately and now he has given another 50 days," said UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "Those fears about an imminent additional tightness in the market have dissipated. That's the main story." Oil prices had climbed on the potential sanctions but later gave up gains as the 50-day deadline raised hopes that sanctions could be avoided. In the event the proposed sanctions are implemented, "it would drastically change the outlook for the oil market," analysts at ING said in a note. "China, India and Turkey are the largest buyers of Russian crude oil. They would need to weigh the benefits of buying discounted Russian crude oil against the cost of their exports to the U.S.," ING said. Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine on Monday and had said on Saturday that he would impose a 30% tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1, adding to similar warnings for other countries. Tariffs raise the risk of slower economic growth, which could reduce global fuel demand and drag oil prices lower. Also on the tariff front, Brazil will work to get the U.S. to reverse "as quickly as possible" the 50% tariff it announced on all goods from that country, but does not rule out asking for more time to negotiate, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said. China's economy slowed in the second quarter, data showed on Tuesday, with markets bracing for a weaker second half as exports lose momentum, prices continue to fall and consumer confidence remains low. Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, said economic growth in China came in above consensus, largely because of strong fiscal support and the frontloading of production and exports to beat U.S. tariffs. "The Chinese economic data was supportive overnight," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. Elsewhere, oil demand is set to remain "very strong" through the third quarter, keeping the market balanced in the near term, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' secretary general said, according to a Russian media report. In U.S. supply, U.S. crude stocks rose by 839,000 barrels last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. U.S. government data on stockpiles is due on Wednesday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-down-market-contemplates-potential-sanctions-tariffs-2025-07-15/
2025-07-15 00:01
New storms threaten central Texas with heavy rains Governor Abbott reports 97 still missing in Kerrville area State lawmakers to investigate flood response and preparedness July 14 (Reuters) - The official tally of storm-related deaths across Texas rose to 131 on Monday as authorities warned of yet another round of heavy rains 10 days after a Hill Country flash flood that transformed the Guadalupe River into a killer torrent. A National Weather Service flood watch forecasting heavy downpours of up to half a foot of rain was posted until Tuesday morning for a wide swath of central Texas extending from the Rio Grande east to San Antonio and Austin. Sign up here. The advisory included Kerr County and other parts of Texas Hill Country along the Guadalupe still recovering from the July 4 flood disaster, which ravaged the county seat of Kerrville and a riverside Christian summer camp for girls in the nearby town of Hunt. Riverfront residents as well as search teams still combing the banks of the waterway were advised to seek higher ground until the latest danger had passed. The search for additional victims along the Guadalupe was likewise suspended due to flood concerns on Sunday. Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Monday said storms had claimed at least 131 lives in Texas since July 4, the bulk of those deaths in and around Kerrville, up from 120 reported on Friday. He said 97 people were still listed as missing in the greater Kerrville area, down from the 160-plus who authorities said were unaccounted for last week. About a third of the Kerr County fatalities are children, most of whom perished at Camp Mystic when floodwaters raged through the girls-only summer retreat before dawn on July 4. Authorities have not rescued anyone alive since the day of the floods, when more than a foot of rain fell in less than an hour in the heart of a region known as "flash flood alley," sending a deadly wall of water down the Guadalupe River basin. Abbott said state lawmakers would investigate the circumstances of the flooding, disaster preparedness and emergency response to the flooding at a special legislative session set to convene later this month. The high casualty toll, ranking as one of the deadliest U.S. flood events in decades, has raised questions about the lack of flash-flood warning sirens in Kerr County and vacancies left at National Weather Service offices amid staffing cuts under the Trump administration. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/texas-flood-death-toll-rises-131-new-storms-loom-2025-07-14/
2025-07-15 00:01
US consumer prices picked up in June Dollar hits 15-week high against Japanese yen Fed funds futures traders see 44 bps in cuts this year NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - The dollar reached a 15-week high against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in five months in June, while traders also pared expectations on how many times the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates this year. U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are seen as increasing price pressures and keeping the Fed on hold as policymakers wait to see their impact. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he anticipated prices will rise this summer. Despite the pick-up in the Consumer Price Index, underlying inflation remained moderate last month. "Tariffs are in the data, but it’s not as devastating as many feared,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls in Wisconsin. Fed funds traders are pricing in 44 basis points of cuts by year-end, down from around 48 basis points before the data, with the first rate reduction still expected in September. "A slightly softer-than-expected June core inflation reading keeps alive the chances of a September Federal Reserve interest rate cut, but the risk is that we get less benign prints for July and August," James Knightley, chief international economist, US at ING said in a note. "That means we will need to see clear evidence of softer jobs figures to trigger Fed action before December." The dollar gained broadly in what was also a seen as a technical move as the greenback consolidated from a selloff that has sent the index down by around 9% this year. Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, noted that the dollar index is approaching technical targets including the 50-day moving average and the 100 price level. "I think some of this is just your normal run-of-the-mill technical consolidation," he said. Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab was also set to resume artificial intelligence chip sales to China, in a sign of improving trade relations. "Some of that softening of China trade rhetoric is helping things at the margin," Bechtel said. The euro was last down 0.51% on the day at $1.1603, the lowest since June 25. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.77% to 148.84, the highest since April 3. Sterling weakened 0.28% to $1.3389, the lowest since June 23. The dollar weakened after Trump in April announced larger than expected tariffs, but then delayed many of the levies pending negotiations with trading partners. Trump last week announced higher tariffs would come into effect on August 1 for imports from a range of countries, including Mexico, Japan, Canada and Brazil, and the European Union, though market reaction this time was relatively muted. “The market is ignoring the tariffs until it becomes clear whether there's going to be sort of a major escalation like there was with China in April or if this is just yet another step on the way to some sort of deal,” said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank's NY Branch. In addition to tariffs and inflation, markets are also focused on the U.S. fiscal and debt outlook, and the pressure the Trump administration is placing on Powell as he keeps rates on hold. Trump said on Tuesday that consumer prices were low and the Fed should bring down interest rates now. Powell has also asked the U.S. central bank's inspector general to review the costs involved in the renovation of its historic headquarters in Washington, as Trump administration officials intensify their criticism of how the Fed is being run. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that a "formal process" is already starting to identify a potential successor to Powell, whose term will end in May. Bitcoin fell 3.04% to $116,571. It hit a record $123,153 on Monday as investors bet on long-sought policy wins for the industry this week, which has been dubbed "crypto week" by U.S. Republicans. https://www.reuters.com/it/azienda/euro-calo-dollaro-sale-dopo-minaccia-di-dazi-al-30-su-merci-ue-2025-07-14/
