2026-01-27 03:40
MUMBAI, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Indian gold and silver futures jumped to record highs early on Tuesday, tracking gains in overseas prices and supported by the rupee's slide near an all-time low, dealers said. Domestic gold futures rose 2.4% to a record high of 159,820 rupees per 10 grams in early trade, while silver futures jumped 6% to an all-time high of 354,780 rupees per kg. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-gold-silver-futures-jump-record-high-tracking-global-gains-2026-01-27/
2026-01-27 02:37
MUMBAI, Jan 27 (Reuters) - A heavily pressured Indian rupee steps into a week in which the U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to deliver its first policy decision of the year, while local government bonds are seen supported in the run-up to the country's annual budget. The rupee declined about 1.2% last week in its steepest fall in six months, after touching an all-time low of 91.9650. Sign up here. Equity outflows picked up pace through last week, while importer hedging was higher relative to exporters amid expectations of further depreciation taking hold. The breach of the 91 per dollar level drew in additional speculative interest, amplifying dollar demand. "With these pressures unlikely to fade in the near term, the rupee's downside bias should remain firmly in place this week," said Kunal Kurani, vice president, Mecklai Financial. Beyond flows, the rupee will have to navigate two key events in the week, beginning with the Fed's policy decision on Wednesday. While no change in interest rates is expected, traders will parse the Fed statement and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for signals on the timing of future cuts, if any. India's annual budget is scheduled for Sunday, though traders expect limited pre-emptive positioning in the currency. Meanwhile, in a positive for the rupee this week, India and the European Union concluded negotiations on a long-coveted trade deal, an accord both sides hailed was historic amid strained U.S. ties. BONDS The 10-year benchmark 6.48% 2035 yield settled at 6.6635% on Friday, notching a marginal decline, after rising for the previous three weeks as supply outpaced demand. Traders expect the yield to move in a 6.61%–6.70% range this week. Bonds could see a positive start after the RBI announced yet another liquidity infusion plan, as it will buy bonds worth 1 trillion rupees and conduct a $10 billion swap in February. The market would look for hints from the government to address the worsening demand-supply scenario. In focus will be the gross borrowing announcement and whether New Delhi plans to raise net issuances of treasury bills. A Reuters poll has pegged the gross borrowing at a record 16.27 trillion rupees for the next financial year, with Nomura expecting the figure to be 17.5 trillion rupees. "On the fiscal front, we see the consolidation continuing, although at a lesser pace, and expect FY27 fiscal deficit to be pegged at 4.25% - 4.30%," Vikas Garg, head of fixed income at Invesco Mutual Fund. "The market will closely watch the funding pattern of fiscal deficit, and we expect an increased proportion of small saving schemes and T-bill issuance for FY27." Still, there could be some pressure as states are set to borrow nearly 400 billion rupees via bond sale, while New Delhi will auction the benchmark paper for 320 billion rupees on Friday. KEY EVENTS: India ** December industrial output - January 28, Wednesday (4:00 p.m. IST) ** December fiscal deficit - January 30, Friday (3:30 p.m. IST) U.S. ** January consumer confidence - January 27, Tuesday (8:30 p.m. IST) ** Federal Reserve monetary policy decision - January 29, Thursday (12:30 a.m. IST) ** November international trade - January 29, Thursday (7:00 p.m. IST) ** Initial weekly jobless claims for week to January 24 - January 29, Thursday (8:30 p.m. IST) ** November factory orders - January 29, Thursday (8:30 p.m. IST) ** December PPI machine manufacturing - January 30, Friday (7:00 p.m. IST) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/struggling-indian-rupee-navigate-fed-policy-bonds-seen-supported-ahead-budget-2026-01-27/
2026-01-27 00:46
Indexes up: Dow 0.64%, S&P 500 0.50%, Nasdaq 0.43% USA Rare Earth jumps after reports of govt taking a 10% stake CoreWeave advances on Nvidia investment Prison stocks fall on backlash against ICE Jan 26 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq advanced for a fourth consecutive session on Monday, as investors geared up for a slew of mega-cap earnings and a Federal Reserve update on interest rate policy later this week. Both indexes hit their highest levels in more than a week and registered their longest string of advances since December. Sign up here. Gains in a handful of mega-cap names did most of the heavy lifting for the S&P 500, with Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab, Alphabet (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab, Meta (META.O) , opens new tab and Broadcom (AVGO.O) , opens new tab offering the benchmark's top boosts. Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab are slated to report quarterly results later this week, setting up a key test for a rally powered by euphoria around AI. Investors will look for signs of measurable payoffs from AI spending. With concerns over high valuations in the tech space, guidance will be especially important and even a modest stumble could spark a rethink about the AI trade. "You're seeing communications and technology are trading well today in advance of the earnings from a lot of the large companies," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Northlight Asset Management in Charlotte, North Carolina. "It seems like we're having an expansion in corporate profits and an expansion in the economy, so generally speaking, investors are cautiously optimistic and most likely looking forward to earnings season." Of the 64 companies in the S&P 500 that had reported earnings as of Friday, 79.7% beat analyst expectations as per data compiled by LSEG. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 313.69 points, or 0.64%, to 49,412.40, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 34.62 points, or 0.50%, to 6,950.23 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab gained 100.11 points, or 0.43%, to 23,601.36. Communications services (.SPLRCL) , opens new tab finished up 1.3% and was the biggest gainer among the S&P 500's 11 major industry sectors while consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) , opens new tab was the biggest laggard with a 0.7% decline. The S&P 500's biggest drag was Tesla, which ended down 3%. The S&P 500 materials sector (.SPLRCM) , opens new tab rose 0.3% as gold prices vaulted above $5,000 an ounce for the first time, boosting names such as Newmont Corp (NEM.N) , opens new tab, which finished up 1.3%. Also on investors' minds was the Fed meeting, which starts on Tuesday and ends with a policy update on Wednesday afternoon. Traders see a roughly 97% probability that the central bank will hold rates steady, according to CME Group's FedWatch , opens new tab, but investors will hope for clues on its future rate path. The decision may risk being overshadowed by fresh questions over the central bank's independence after the Justice Department opened a probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell this month, and President Donald Trump said he may pick the next Fed chair soon. In individual stocks, shares of Intel (INTC.O) , opens new tab sank 5.7% after falling 17% on Friday for their steepest drop in nearly 18 months after the chipmaker forecast quarterly profit and revenue below estimates. Meanwhile, JetBlue (JBLU.O) , opens new tab dropped 3.8% as the airline sector dealt with the aftermath of mass disruptions in flight schedules after a massive winter storm hit the United States. Shares of prison operators GEO Group (GEO.N) , opens new tab and CoreCivic (CXW.N) , opens new tab, which have contracts with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, fell sharply as U.S. Senate Democrats said they will oppose a funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE. The fatal shooting of a 37-year-old nurse, Alex Pretti, in Minneapolis on Saturday has escalated a public backlash against Trump's approach to immigration. GEO shares fell 9.3% for their biggest daily loss since August and CoreCivic fell 7%, its biggest drop since November. Shares of USA Rare Earth (USAR.O) , opens new tab rallied 7.9% after reports that the U.S. administration was taking a 10% stake in the miner as part of a $1.6 billion debt-and-equity investment package. Elsewhere CoreWeave (CRWV.O) , opens new tab climbed 5.7% after Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab said it would invest $2 billion in the cloud infrastructure firm. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.37-to-1 ratio on the NYSE where there were 631 new highs and 63 new lows. On the Nasdaq, 2,360 stocks rose and 2,465 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.04-to-1 ratio. On U.S. exchanges 18.41 billion shares changed hands on Monday compared with the 17.60 billion 20-day average. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-index-futures-slip-mag-7-results-fed-take-center-stage-2026-01-26/
2026-01-27 00:30
ORLANDO, Florida, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The rumblings of a productivity boom are reverberating through the U.S. economy – and they may be going global. Technological leaps have long been the hallmark of U.S. economic efficiency, flexibility and dynamism – trends that artificial intelligence is expected to accelerate – but there are nascent signs that the benefits of AI may be spreading. Sign up here. Purchasing managers' index (PMI) figures on Friday showed that British business activity has started this year on a strong footing, with robust demand at home and abroad spurring the fastest output growth since April 2024. Firms also noted a solid decline in employment, with the pace of job losses accelerating from December. Britain's PMI employment sub-indexes have been below the threshold separating expansion from contraction since late 2024. Britain, therefore, appears to be producing an increasing amount of goods and services per hour worked – the textbook definition of productivity growth. A similar, although grainier, picture also emerged from Germany's latest PMI figures. Output in January was the highest in three months, while employment fell at the quickest rate since November 2009, excluding pandemic-related declines. To be sure, PMI data don't always fully chime with official growth and jobs statistics, and one should never put too much stock in a single month's figures. But that doesn't mean the burgeoning trends should be disregarded. As JP Morgan economist Allan Monks notes, the ratio of output to employment in the UK - a crude proxy for productivity - is the highest since August 2013, excluding pandemic period distortions. Morgan Stanley's Bruna Skarica concurs, writing: "A degree of skepticism around the PMIs is probably warranted, but the dynamic of resilient growth and sluggish labour demand merits more attention." LONG-TERM OPTIMISM What's driving this? In short, it's likely the AI and tech frenzy. Firms are going all in on the bet that AI will make their businesses more productive, innovative, and cost-efficient. It remains to be seen whether the AI revolution will enable the rest of the world to narrow the productivity gap with the United States, however. In China, this seems like a safer bet. The world's second-largest economy is already enjoying significant productivity gains in certain sectors like autos, steel, and high-value manufactured goods. What's more, computing capacity in China is beginning to pull ahead of the U.S.'s and is expected to essentially double in the next five years, economists at Goldman Sachs reckon. But it's a different story in Europe, often seen as a weak link in the global value chain, suffering from low potential growth and productivity. Economists blame this on limited innovation in technology, over-regulation, high levels of public debt and low private investment. Goldman Sachs' economists estimate AI-driven productivity gains will add on average only around 0.05 percentage points to European growth in the next few years, rising to a "more meaningful" 0.2 pp per year after 2030. But that is still only half the 0.4 pp of AI-induced productivity gains to annual GDP growth the U.S. is expected to enjoy. PRODUCTIVITY A 'GET OUT OF JAIL FREE' CARD? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in December signaled that productivity growth could help the central bank reduce inflation while maintaining a "dovish" policy bias to support the labor market and economic growth. Faster productivity is disinflationary. If productivity gains speed up and spread globally, central banks could potentially avoid having to make dramatic interest rate changes while still hitting their inflation targets. Yet, the flipside is that maintaining full employment could become more challenging if AI advances allow economies to flourish with far fewer workers. Powell may have more to say on this when the Fed meets this week. Of course, all of this should be taken with a grain of salt. Productivity figures are dubious at the best of times and hard to measure accurately. If the underlying data are flawed, as Britain's Office for National Statistics labor market numbers were revealed to be last year, so too are productivity assumptions. But trillions of dollars of global AI-related spending is expected to come down the pike in the coming years, and investors are betting this will deliver a productivity surge. The release of earnings from U.S. tech megacaps including Meta (META.O) , opens new tab , Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab and Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab this week may offer some insight on this. It's obviously too soon to know if the AI spending will deliver a sustained economic boost globally, but – for perhaps the first time since the frenzy began – there are signs that it just might. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters) Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), , opens new tab your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab And listen to the Morning Bid daily podcast on Apple , opens new tab, Spotify , opens new tab, or the Reuters app , opens new tab. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week. https://www.reuters.com/markets/america-incs-productivity-boom-may-be-going-global-2026-01-26/
2026-01-27 00:12
CARACAS, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez said on Monday the country expects about $1.4 billion in investment this year in projects under oil production sharing contracts promoted by the government, compared with some $900 million last year. Rodriguez spoke to oil executives, lawyers and lawmakers at state company PDVSA's Caracas headquarters during the discussion of a proposed reform of the country's main oil law, which would incorporate the output sharing contracts. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuela-expects-14-billion-investment-oil-production-sharing-contracts-2026-01-27/
2026-01-26 23:50
WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The Trump administration said on Monday it is restructuring the Federal Aviation Administration and will create a new safety oversight office to consolidate functions across five different units. The move comes a day before the National Transportation Safety Board on Tuesday is set to criticize the FAA's failure to act on near-miss incidents at a hearing to determine the probable cause of the January 2025 collision between an Army helicopter and American Airlines passenger jet that killed 67 people near Reagan Washington National Airport. Sign up here. The FAA said the new aviation safety office was part of a strategic plan to improve hiring and training and identify potential hazards. The overhaul will not result in reductions in force, it said. Lawmakers from both parties have questioned why the FAA failed to act for years to address close calls involving helicopters near Reagan airport before the fatal collision. The NTSB said last year that since 2021, there were more than 15,000 incidents near Reagan between commercial airplanes and helicopters with lateral separation distance of less than 1 nautical mile (1.85 km) and vertical separation of less than 400 feet (122 m), including 85 close-call incidents during that period. NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy said in August the FAA had ignored warnings about serious safety issues. As part of the restructuring, the FAA is creating a safety management system and implementing an FAA-wide safety risk management process. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford, who took office in July, is overseeing a $12.5 billion rehabilitation of U.S. air traffic control, and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy wants another $19 billion to complete the job. The FAA in early May barred the Army from helicopter flights around the Pentagon after a May 1 close call that forced two civilian planes to abort landings. The FAA is also in the process of moving its headquarters , opens new tab into the main Transportation Department office in Washington. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-revamps-faa-aiming-improve-safety-oversight-2026-01-26/
