2025-07-30 11:25
Investors watch for signs of internal dissent within the Fed Euro on track for first monthly drop since December 2024 Jefferies says trade deal is welcome for the euro area Yen firms as investors await BOJ meeting July 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar struggled for direction on Wednesday after a four-day winning streak, as investors shifted their focus to the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later in the session and to upcoming economic data. Meanwhile, the euro was poised to record its first monthly drop since December 2024,, following a sharp reaction to a U.S.-European Union trade deal earlier this week. Sign up here. Investors were hesitant to place bets before crucial economic reports and central bank meetings in Canada, Japan and the United States. “Markets will be paying attention to (Fed Chair) Jerome Powell’s remarks, regarding any signs of internal dissent within the committee and the chair’s stance amid ongoing tensions with the White House,” said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management. “A rate cut in September remains a strong base case, much will depend on incoming data, starting with the U.S. jobs report due this Friday,” he added. The U.S. central bank, to President Donald Trump's chagrin, will likely leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. The dollar index was up 0.02% at 98.774. It hit a 5-week high at 98.923 on Tuesday and was on course to post its first month of gains this year. Analysts noted the selloff in U.S. assets — including Treasuries and the dollar — began in early April, when the U.S. appeared poised to launch a trade war against its major allies. Trade agreements struck with Japan last week and the EU over the weekend signalled a renewed U.S. commitment to global engagement, easing investor concerns. Investors' focus is now on negotiations between China and the U.S. after officials agreed to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce. China and the U.S remain important trade and economic partners, the Chinese commerce minister told a U.S. business delegation on Wednesday, according to his ministry. The euro was down 0.03% to $1.1540 after dropping for the first two days of the week and hitting a one-month low of $1.15185 on Tuesday. The euro is up 11.7% since the start of the year but on course for its first monthly drop in 2025. "The stark divergence in growth news between the U.S. and Europe should underpin the euro bearish momentum," said Francesco Pesole, forex strategist at ING. Data showed on Wednesday that the German economy contracted in the second quarter, while France's economy beat forecasts. Some analysts expressed concern about the economic impact of tariffs and their implications for the European Central Bank’s rate outlook. However, markets adjusted their expectations for the ECB’s easing path, pushing back the timing of a potential rate cut to March 2026 last week, following the U.S.-Japan trade deal and an ECB hawkish tilt after its policy meeting. “On a comparative basis, the outcome (of trade negotiations) is welcome, if not wholly reassuring (for the euro area),” said Modupe Adegbembo, economist at Jefferies. “The EU has successfully avoided escalation and has not lost significant ground relative to other major exporters,” Adegbembo added, noting the 5% baseline tariff is more favourable than the 30% applied to Chinese goods and is on par with Japan's 15%. The yen firmed 0.33% to 147.98 against the dollar. The spotlight will be on comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda as investors hope the recent trade deal between Japan and the U.S. paves the way for the central bank to raise rates. Analysts flagged that a divergence in tone from Ueda this week relative to Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida last week, who was perceived as being hawkish, could be a catalyst for further yen selling over the near-term. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-mixed-after-four-day-rally-fed-meeting-focus-2025-07-30/
2025-07-30 11:25
US Fed statement due at 1800 GMT Fed expected to keep rates steady July 30 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched higher on Wednesday, helped by a slight pullback in the dollar as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision and comments that could offer more cues on the timing of the U.S. central bank's next moves. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,328.15 per ounce, as of 1056 GMT. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% higher to $3,325.10. Sign up here. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab eased 0.1% after hitting more than a one-month high on Tuesday, making gold less expensive for holders of other currencies. "There are a range of features that taken together are keeping gold prices moribund. From a geopolitical standpoint we appear to be making progress in the tariff negotiations, but no-one is really prepared to commit one way or the other," StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell said. Developments between China and the United States will in focus after officials agreed to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce, following two days of what both sides described as constructive talks in Stockholm. Trade agreements with Japan last week and the European Union over the weekend eased investors' jitters and lifted risk sentiment in the market this week. Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to keep rates steady on Wednesday, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's persistent calls to lower them. Markets will be paying attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for more cues on the rate path. "The markets are pricing in two cuts before year-end which is probably too benign. The Fed will not give in to political pressure but it will be interesting to see whether the vote today is unanimous," O'Connell said. Gold tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.6% to $37.97 per ounce, platinum slipped 0.5% to $1,388.59 and palladium was up 0.3% to $1,262.19. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-firms-dollar-eases-run-up-fed-verdict-2025-07-30/
2025-07-30 11:23
EL ARENAL, Spain/AROUCA, Portugal, July 30 (Reuters) - Thousands of firefighters struggled to put out a dozen wildfires raging in northern Portugal and central Spain through the night and into Wednesday, in the largest wave of blazes in the Iberian Peninsula so far this year after weeks of summer heat. The largest wildfire has been burning in the wooded, mountainous Arouca area - some 300 km (185 miles) north of Lisbon - since Monday, leading to the closure of the scenic trails of Passadicos do Paiva, a popular tourist attraction. Sign up here. Some 800 firefighters and seven waterbombing aircraft tackled the blaze. "There was a huge effort during the night, so now we have a somewhat calmer situation," Civil Protection Commander Helder Silva told reporters, cautioning that shifting strong winds and a difficult terrain meant their work was far from over. "It's a very large wildfire in areas with difficult access," he said. Further north, a blaze has been raging since Saturday in the Peneda-Geres national park near the Spanish border, enveloping nearby villages in thick smoke that led to orders for residents to stay at home. Portuguese firefighters managed to control two large fires that started on Monday in the central areas of Penamacor and Nisa. Authorities said the Penamacor blaze had destroyed 3,000 hectares (7,413 acres) of forest. In Spain's central province of Avila, shifting gusts of wind hindered efforts by firefighters and a special military unit, emergency services said. Residents in the village of El Arenal, about 100 km (62 miles) west of Madrid, were advised to remain indoors due to heavy smoke. In Mombeltran near Avila, farmer Blas Rodriguez fought back tears as he walked among scorched trees, his olive grove devastated by the fire. "This land belongs to my father. It burnt 16 years ago but the olive trees were spared from the fire... this time there is no way to save them, everything is completely burnt," he told Reuters. In the western province of Caceres, the fire has affected 2,500 hectares, prompting evacuations from homes scattered across the Caminomorisco area, authorities said. Hot and dry summers are common across the region, but more intense heatwaves have contributed to destructive wildfires in recent years amid fast-rising temperatures around the globe. Portugal and Spain had the hottest June on record. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/portugal-spain-fight-wave-wildfires-2025-07-30/
2025-07-30 11:22
Trump vows sanctions unless Russia makes progress on peace deal U.S. also warns China over Russian oil China unlikely to comply with U.S. sanctions, analysts say LONDON, July 30 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell nearly 1% on Wednesday as investors awaited developments on U.S. President Donald Trump's tighter deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine and his tariff threats to countries that trade its oil. The most active Brent crude futures lost 68 cents, or 0.95%, to $71 a barrel by 1103 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped by 70 cents, or 1%, to $68.51. Sign up here. The Brent crude September contract that expires on Wednesday was down 69 cents, or 0.95%, at $71.82. Both contracts had settled on Tuesday at their highest since June 20. "Events in the last few days have moved the needle a touch more, but we still appear to be somewhat rangebound and testing the next resistance level," said Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah. Trump had said on Tuesday that he would start imposing measures on Russia, such as secondary tariffs of 100% on trading partners, if it did not make progress on ending the war within 10 to 12 days, moving up from an earlier 50-day deadline. The United States also warned China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, that it could face huge tariffs if it kept buying, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a news conference in Stockholm. JP Morgan analysts wrote that while China was unlikely to comply with U.S. sanctions, India has signalled it would do so, which could affect 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil exports. "Oil prices reacted strongly yesterday, so there is some profit booking," said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding that data from the American Petroleum Institute from Tuesday was also bearish for crude. "Market participants are also taking into account that low prices and secondary sanctions/tariffs on Russia won’t work at the same time." U.S. crude and distillate stocks rose last week while gasoline inventories fell, market sources said, citing API data. "Depending on the outcome of the U.S.-Russia discussions, tariff implementation and the OPEC+ meeting and announcement on unwinding (of output cuts), the market could see some movement," Rystad's Shah added. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-fall-profit-taking-market-weighs-up-supply-risks-2025-07-30/
2025-07-30 11:21
SINGAPORE/NEW DELHI, July 30 (Reuters) - Supertanker Kalliopi was in the process of discharging Iraqi oil for India's Nayara Energy on Wednesday, the first delivery of crude for the refiner since it was sanctioned by the European Union, five sources familiar with the matter said. More than half of the two million barrels of Basrah volume on board the vessel had been discharged, one of the sources said, with the unloading expected to be completed on Thursday, a second source said. Sign up here. The supertanker is the first to deliver crude to Nayara's Vadinar refinery in the past 12 days, Kpler ship-tracking data showed. Nayara did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The EU unveiled new sanctions on Russia and its energy trade that targeted the company on July 18. Another tanker, Nusa Merdeka, has delayed discharging Russian crude oil at Nayara's port, one of the sources said. The tanker was scheduled to discharge Urals on July 26 at Vadinar but has since been hovering near the anchorage, the person said. It was not immediately clear why the tanker did not discharge on schedule. Last week, the oil tanker Omni carrying Russian Urals crude diverted away from Nayara Energy's Vadinar port to discharge its cargo at the port of Mundra in India. Nayara, which is majority owned by Russian companies, has reduced crude runs at its 400,000 barrels-per-day site to 70-80%, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Meanwhile, product tankers carrying fuel loaded from Nayara Energy's Vadinar site are afloat without discharging cargoes as shippers and traders avoid dealing with it. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/supertanker-delivers-oil-sanctioned-nayara-energys-vadinar-refinery-sources-say-2025-07-30/
2025-07-30 11:13
MOSCOW/SINGAPORE, July 30 (Reuters) - Premiums for ESPO Blend crude oil loading from Russia's Kozmino port in late August to early September for delivery into China have held firm as buyers seeking to meet robust demand ignore the threat of increased U.S. tariffs, four traders said on Wednesday. Trump on Monday shortened a deadline for Moscow to make progress toward a Ukraine peace deal or face secondary tariffs of 100% in 10 to 12 days. Sign up here. This set the deadline for Russia at August 7 to August 9, while ESPO cargoes loading in September are being traded. Traders said Russian oil trade continued as usual. ESPO Blend's premium to international benchmark ICE Brent was at $2-2.20 per barrel for cargoes loading at end-August and early September as increased refining margins boosted Chinese buying interest, they added. They said independent refiners in the eastern Shandong province have slightly increased their crude processing rates as margins have improved. State oil majors also operated at higher rates this month. The traders, who could not be identified because they were not authorised to speak publicly, said ESPO is considered the most economical crude for Chinese refiners as Middle East crude prices have strengthened. Unipec, the trading arm of Chinese state-run Sinopec (600028.SS) , opens new tab, bought 7-8 cargoes of August-loading ESPO, trade sources said last week, which they said was an increase without giving numbers for previous months. Sinopec did not immediately respond to a Reuters' request for comment. Shandong Yulong Petrochemical has also made a rare purchase of Russia's Urals crude, traders said last week. A decline in exports of Russian Sokol crude produced at Sakhalin Island in August due to maintenance at the oilfield has also supported ESPO prices, traders said. Most Sokol crude is exported to China with the rest going to India, data from analytics firm Kpler showed. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-espo-oil-premiums-hold-firm-china-despite-us-tariff-threat-2025-07-30/
