2026-01-26 22:03

ORLANDO, Florida, Jan 26 (Reuters) - World stocks climbed to new highs and gold smashed through the $5,000-an-ounce barrier on Monday, while the dollar's slide gathered pace as investors braced for a deluge of U.S. earnings and a Federal Reserve policy decision this week. More on that below. In my column today I look into signs that the rumblings of a U.S. productivity boom may be going global. Could all that AI spending be bearing fruit? It's early days, but investors and policymakers alike will ‌be paying close attention. Sign up here. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key ‌Market Moves Today's Talking Points * Yen intervention speculation After the New York Fed's rare step of checking dollar/yen rates on Friday, speculation is mounting over when, if or how direct yen-buying intervention might follow. ⁠The dollar's fall of more than 3% since Friday is pretty substantial, considering no official selling has yet taken place. There are good reasons why coordinated Japan-U.S. intervention ‍might not happen now. But if Tokyo wants to ensure the yen's recovery from its historic lows is a lasting one, it might have to step in, like it did ‌in late ‌2022 and again in 2024. * Silver and gold rush January 26, 2026. A landmark day for gold as it rises above $5,000/oz for the first time, a far cry from the days of the "Washington Agreement" and $250/oz a quarter of a century ago. And if SocGen and others are right, it is heading for $6,000/oz. Silver's rise is even more staggering, crossing $100/oz on Friday for the first time. It soared as much as 13% on Monday before cooling. But it is still up 15% in the last three ⁠trading sessions, and up 35% this year. ⁠Supply issues and momentum buying are factors, but the speculative wave of hot money is considerable. The correction could be messy. * Big Tech earnings By some measures, U.S. tech is lagging so far this year, especially the megacaps - the Roundhill "Mag 7" ETF is flat year-to-date while the Russell 2000 is up 8%. Indeed, Raymond James CIO Larry Adam notes that mega-cap tech is having its worst start to a year ‍relative to the S&P 500 since 2010. But early-year tech underperformance is nothing new or alarming, Adams says. "Big Tech" has bounced back in recent years, and valuations today relative to the rest of the market are the most compelling in years. This week's earnings and guidance from Apple, Microsoft and Meta Platforms will be instructive. What could move markets tomorrow? Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-01-26/

2026-01-26 20:59

GEORGETOWN, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Guyana's economy is set to grow 16.2% in 2026, slowing from 19.3% in 2025, with the oil and gas sector continuing to drive expansion, Finance Minister Ashni Singh said on Monday. Singh, presenting ‌the nation's annual budget, said the oil sector is set to grow 17.9% this year, compared with 21% in 2025 and 57.7% in 2024, and is likely to produce an average of 840,000 barrels per day (bpd). Sign up here. The minister forecast 309 crude oil cargo exports, up from ‌260 last year, and estimated oil revenue of about $2.79 billion. A cargo of crude oil contains approximately one million barrels. The oil sector is likely to remain central to economic growth in 2026, with production from a fifth offshore project slated ‍to begin later in the year. ExxonMobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab raised its oil production capacity in Guyana to more than 900,000 bpd last year, and a new project set to be developed this year will further raise ⁠production to up to 1.15 million bpd. The government is widely expected to maintain an ‍infrastructure-heavy budget stance, deploying oil revenue to support its goals of building 40,000 homes over five ‌years ‌and expanding road networks. In 2025, the economy recorded double-digit growth for the sixth consecutive year, even though growth in oil production and exports slowed compared to previous years. The non-oil sector grew 14.3%, driven mainly by agriculture, mining, construction and the services industry, ⁠Singh said. "Our overall real ⁠economic growth continues to be supported by strong expansion in oil and gas activity, as well as sustained growth across the non-oil sectors of the economy," he said. Crude output throughout 2025 totaled 261.1 million barrels, ‍up from 225.4 million in 2024, as a consortium led by ExxonMobil started operations on a fourth oil project in August. All of Guyana's oil production is controlled by the ExxonMobil-led group. Guyana is Latin America's newest oil producer and in recent years ‍has become the region's fifth-largest crude exporter after Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/guyanas-economy-expanded-193-2025-despite-cooling-oil-sector-growth-2026-01-26/

2026-01-26 20:34

HOUSTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Trading houses have begun making preparations to load and export Venezuelan liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as part of a 50-million-barrel oil supply deal between Caracas and Washington, according to two sources and a shipping document seen by Reuters on Monday. Traders Vitol and Trafigura earlier this month were granted the first U.S. licenses to handle supplies from the $2 billion flagship deal, which aims to drain inventories accumulated since the U.S. imposed an oil blockade on the country in December. The companies have since exported about 10 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, shipping data showed. Sign up here. The trading houses are now also getting ready to export residual fuel oil and LPG. While fuel oil is a product Venezuela produces in excess due to the processing of its extra heavy crude at refineries, it had not had a surplus of LPG in years because all output was going to meet domestic demand. However, interim President Delcy Rodriguez, who also serves as Venezuela's oil minister, said earlier this month the country would soon export LPG after Venezuela's overall fuel demand was fully met from domestic output last year. The Singapore-flagged vessel Chrysopigi Lady, chartered by Trafigura, was approaching Venezuela's Jose port on Monday to pick up a LPG cargo, LSEG ship data showed. Trafigura and Venezuela's state-run PDVSA did not immediately reply to requests for comment. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trading-houses-begin-exporting-venezuelan-lpg-sources-document-say-2026-01-26/

2026-01-26 20:30

Trump's policies create volatility, hurt dollar, investors say Fed expected to cut rates, undermining dollar appeal Investors diversifying away from U.S. as geopolitics heats up LONDON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar is coming under fire again in the first few turbulent weeks of 2026 as a growing range of factors -- including Washington's desire for a weaker currency -- prompts a rethink of investors' optimistic assumptions for a period of stability for the greenback. The dollar on Monday was headed for its biggest three-day slide against a basket of major currencies since last ‌April when U.S. President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs unleashed a steep selloff in U.S. assets. Sign up here. In his first year in office, President Trump's erratic approach to trade and international diplomacy, his attacks on the Federal Reserve that undermine its independence, and huge increases in public spending pushed the dollar down more than 9%, its worst yearly showing since 2017. So far this year, the dollar was again underperforming other major currencies including the euro, sterling and Swiss franc. WHIRLWIND RATE OF CHANGE "There are a number of factors coming together," said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, which manages just over $600 billion worth of assets. "I don't think this is a 'Sell America' trade, but the fundamentals are coming ‌together, and faster than expected." Just this month, Trump has threatened to take control of Greenland, slap more tariffs on European allies over the matter, moved to criminally indict Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and overseen an operation to seize the president of Venezuela. On Saturday, he threatened Canada with an effective trade embargo. While he has backed down on his threats over Greenland and European tariffs, and markets have shaken off the strike on Venezuela, the backdrop is tense. Market measures of volatility are still running hot and bond market sentiment is fragile, not least because of ‍an aggressive selloff in Japanese government debt that could spill over into Treasuries, while gold's relentless scaling of new records is a sign investors are seeking alternative safe-havens. Trump's domestic policies, including an aggressive crackdown on illegal immigration that has killed two U.S. citizens this month and sparked protests, could prompt another government shutdown this month. "That threat of a shutdown adds to the tailwind that has been depressing the dollar, adds one more reason for anyone who may be reconsidering ⁠investing in U.S. or hedging dollar exposures," said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer of Potomac River Capital in Washington. What's more, the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates at least twice this year, ‍while other major central banks are pausing or could even hike rates. This alone makes the dollar less appealing to investors, who could opt to put their money somewhere where lending rates are rising. Powell, who has resisted pressure from ‌Trump for ‌faster rate cuts, steps down in May. Online betting markets now attach a 50% chance to BlackRock's bond chief Rick Rieder, an advocate of lower rates like the president, being the likely successor. That was up from less than 10% a week ago, adding to dollar weakness. TIME TO MOVE ON Global equities, meanwhile, roared higher last year, thanks in large part to enthusiasm over artificial intelligence. The performance of the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab since Trump's inauguration has lagged that of other markets. The index has risen by around 15% since then, compared with a 95% surge in Seoul's Kospi index (.KS11) , opens new tab, a 40% rise in Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab and a near 30% gain ⁠in Shanghai's main index (.CSI300) , opens new tab. "At the margin, asset managers are ⁠keen to continue to diversify away from the U.S. It's clear that many had been excessively, or felt they were excessively, overweight U.S. markets," Chris Scicluna, Daiwa Capital Markets economist, said. Trump has repeatedly said tariffs are necessary to address trade imbalances, with a focus on currencies of Asian countries with which the U.S. has large trade deficits. On Friday, the Bank of Japan, together with the New York Fed, was suspected of making a series of rate checks for the yen , a possible precursor to the ‍first bout of joint Japanese-U.S. intervention in 15 years to boost the Japanese currency. The NY Fed acted as a fiscal agent for the U.S. Treasury, according to a source familiar with the matter. Even with the subsequent yen surge, the Japanese currency is still down around 13% against the dollar in the last year. TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR FARING MORE STRONGLY On a trade-weighted basis, however, the dollar has only lost around 5.3% in the last 12 months, based on an index calculated by the Bank for International Settlements. Investors are becoming more concerned about their dollar exposure, with last year's decline more down to cyclical factors such ‍as growth moderating, said Nomura's head of G10 FX strategy Dominic Bunning. "The difference to me (this year) is that the policies the U.S. is seemingly putting in place are much more antagonistic and geopolitical as opposed to economic with tariffs," he said. https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-under-fire-again-investors-reassess-trump-policies-geopolitical-risk-2026-01-26/

2026-01-26 19:45

SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab on Monday released three open-source artificial intelligence models aimed at helping create better weather forecasts, faster. The models, which the AI chip firm announced at the American Meteorological Society’s annual meeting in Houston, are part of a broader push by the company to provide open-source software Sign up here. In the case of weather forecasting, Nvidia is aiming to replace expensive and time-consuming conventional weather simulations with AI-driven versions that the company said can rival or exceed the accuracy of older methods. The AI models, once trained, are also faster and cost less to run. Mike Pritchard, the director of climate simulation research for Nvidia and a professor of earth system sciences at the University of California, Irvine, said that one of the practical business applications of the new weather models will be in the insurance industry. Insurance companies often want to understand extreme outlier events, such as massive floods or hurricanes. But predicting such events in detail has historically been expensive, because weather forecasting is performed in "ensembles," or groups of individual "member" predictions about how a weather event might play out from a given starting point. To find possible outlier events, the ensembles must contain many members, but calculating each one in precise detail to see whether a particular property might flood is slow. "The tension is gone, because once trained, AI is 1,000 times faster," Pritchard said in an interview. "So you're free to run massive ensembles. And insurance companies are running like 10,000-member ensembles." Nvidia's "Earth-2" models introduced on Monday include one aimed at making 15-day weather forecasts, one that specializes in forecasts of up to six hours for severe storms over the U.S., and one that can be used to integrate disparate data streams from a variety of weather sensors to make them a more useful starting point for other forecasting technology. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/nvidia-unveils-ai-models-faster-cheaper-weather-forecasts-2026-01-26/

2026-01-26 19:27

MAPUTO, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Mozambique authorities on Thursday reported 13 deaths from severe floods over the past two weeks, though the figure is expected to rise sharply, with aid workers saying they expect more bodies to be found as waters recede. The country has been hit with heavy rains that caused rivers and dams to overflow, submerging towns and affecting more than half a million people. Parts of neighbouring South Africa were also flooded. Sign up here. Rain had subsided in some areas by Thursday. Some buildings in the capital Maputo were submerged to their rooftops, and the city was cut off from the rest of the country due to flooding on a major national highway, making areas inaccessible. "I won't give up," shopkeeper Justino Zita said, wading through the brown water that had flooded his shop and destroyed his livelihood in Maputo. "We won't give up but we will have difficulty." Mary Louise Eagleton, representative of the United Nations children's agency (UNICEF) in Mozambique, said she expected the toll of dead and wounded to rise. "We expect that a large proportion of those who have been swept away or killed by the floods are children," she told Reuters. Officials describe the flooding as the worst since at least 2000, when around 700 people were killed in Mozambique. Early-warning systems and mandatory evacuations could mean fewer people may have been killed this time, said Paulo Tomas, spokesperson for the National Institute for Disaster Risk Management. "Many people complied by voluntarily leaving the most affected areas," he said. But he said the lower death toll counted so far may also be partly a result of "limited access to some areas and the fact that several zones remain submerged". https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/mozambique-counts-13-dead-floods-so-far-toll-expected-rise-2026-01-22/