2025-07-10 21:17
July 10 - TRADING DAY - Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Alden Bentley, Editor in Charge, Americas Finance and Markets Sign up here. Jamie is enjoying some well-deserved time off, but the Reuters markets team will still keep you up to date on why two benchmark stock indexes, and bitcoin, reached new records. I'd love to hear from you so please feel free to reach out at [email protected] , opens new tab Today's Key Market Moves Today's Key reads Trump sets 50% US tariffs on copper, Brazilian imports starting in August Bitcoin hits another record high US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly slip to 7-week low Investors look for signs European earnings can defy tariff turmoil Wall Street stocks close higher, Delta forecast boosts sentiment New highs, almost no news This week, the default reflex on Wall Street, without any economic data or major market news to react to, and even with now-routine White House tariff edicts, was to buy. Thursday confirmed the pattern with a new set of records in two of three main indexes, with an all-time bitcoin high thrown as a bonus. U.S. President Donald Trump's latest trade salvo was a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil. That sent its currency, the real , tumbling more than 2%, enabling another day of dollar steadiness above last week's three-to-four-year lows. Like Wednesday's levies on copper imports, the Brazil headline didn't stop the S&P 500 or Nasdaq from closing at all-time peaks, with the Dow rising close to its December record. The week has been very light on scheduled events. It started with the focus on Trump's well-advertised July 9 tariff deadline. That came and went and somewhere in the blizzard of new tariff headlines, actual new tariffs and cajoling of trade partners to negotiate is an August 1 cut-off date for markets to wait for. Next week, JP Morgan and other major banks kick off the second quarter earnings season on Tuesday so investors will have headlines more in their comfort zone. Included in that category is the June Consumer Price Index report due on Tuesday. Treasury yields ticked up on the back of weekly jobless claims data that showed a surprise drop in those seeking unemployment benefits. Bitcoin's price first moved above $100,000 in December and it has traded sideways since crossing $110,000 in May, until renewing its upthrust above $113,000 on Thursday. New Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have made it easy for big and small investors to jump in, while Trump seeks to establish a strategic cryptocurrency reserve and has appointed several crypto-friendly individuals like Securities and Exchange Commissioner Paul Atkins and White House AI czar David Sacks. What could move markets tomorrow? Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-trading-day-2025-07-10/
2025-07-10 21:15
US companies buy lean beef from Brazil to make hamburger meat Trump's plan for 50% duty would slash imports, analysts say US beef production has dropped due to tight cattle supply CHICAGO, July 10 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's plan for a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil will likely raise prices for beef used in American hamburgers, traders and analysts said on Thursday, as food manufacturers increasingly rely on imports during a time of declining domestic production. The proposal is a blow to U.S. meat companies also facing tighter cattle supplies due to a halt of livestock imports from Mexico over New World screwworm, a flesh-eating pest spreading south of the border. Sign up here. The tariff would slash imports of Brazilian beef and force companies to seek supplies from other nations as Trump is broadening his global trade war, analysts said. "If it does not get modified, you just cease the importation of Brazilian beef to this country," said Bob Chudy, a consultant for U.S. companies that import beef. "Not one pound will be economic at those levels." U.S. beef prices climbed to records this year and production is projected to fall 2% to 26.4 million pounds, after farmers reduced the nation's cattle herd to its smallest size in more than seven decades. A years-long drought dried up pasture land used for grazing, making it too expensive for many producers to feed their cattle. Food makers have ramped up imports in response. U.S. beef imports from Brazil over the first five months of the year more than doubled from the same period in 2024, to 175,063 metric tons, according to the latest U.S. government data. That accounted for 21% of total U.S. imports. A 50% duty starting on August 1 would bring the tariff rate on Brazilian beef to about 76% for the rest of the year, livestock analysts said. "It is absolutely freezing trade today," Chudy said of the proposal. "We don't know what to do as an import community." Trump has shown the United States can enact tariffs that level the playing field for American workers and farmers while lowering costs, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said. However, U.S. consumers also face sharp price rises on staples including coffee and orange juice, traders said. The U.S. is Brazil's second-largest trading partner after China, and the tariffs are a major increase from a 10% duty Trump announced in April. The 10% tariff already started slowing U.S. beef imports from Brazil in June, traders said. U.S. companies import lean beef from Brazil and other countries to mix with domestic supplies to make hamburger meat. Consumers have shown they are generally willing to pay high prices for meat, though the tariff would be a new test of their demand. "This tariff will likely raise the price of beef, a staple food for many, on the heels of Congress voting to reduce food assistance to the most vulnerable consumers," said Thomas Gremillion, director of food policy at the Consumer Federation of America. The tariff forces importers to pay more for Brazilian beef or source it from other, higher-cost suppliers, said Austin Schroeder, commodity analyst for Brugler Marketing & Management. Importers may try to boost purchases from Australia, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, analysts said. "You need higher prices to ration out what you have available," said Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting Group. "Australia is shipping as much as they can here." Across the country, restaurants rely on a steady supply of imported goods that cannot be produced domestically, said Sean Kennedy, an executive vice president for the National Restaurant Association. "Dramatic tariff increases could affect menu planning and food costs for restaurants as they attempt to find new suppliers," he said. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-tariff-brazilian-goods-could-jack-up-us-burger-price-2025-07-10/
2025-07-10 21:14
July 10 (Reuters) - Canadian copper miner Hudbay Minerals (HBM.TO) , opens new tab said on Thursday it has temporarily suspended operations in Snow Lake due to a wildfire in Northern Manitoba. Some exploration work near Snow Lake has also been paused, the company said. Sign up here. The miner has secured all assets and left a limited workforce on site to support emergency response and monitoring. Hudbay said it remains on track to meet its full-year forecast for Manitoba. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/canadas-hudbay-minerals-suspends-snow-lake-operations-due-wildfire-2025-07-10/
2025-07-10 21:12
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 10 (Reuters) - U.S. corn exports and export sales are still on fire despite the imminent ramp-up of Brazil’s corn shipping season, and the U.S. government might need to up its export target yet again. Brazil was also making headlines in commodity markets on Thursday after the announcement of U.S. tariffs, a move that could ultimately prove harmful to future U.S. grain export potential. Sign up here. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday showed 2024-25 U.S. corn export sales at 69.4 million metric tons (2.73 billion bushels) as of July 3. That included a record weekly volume in the latest week, well above all trade estimates. USDA’s latest 2024-25 export estimate of 2.65 billion bushels sits below the latest sales total, supportive of an upward adjustment in Friday’s supply and demand report. There were three other times within the past couple of decades when early July corn export sales exceeded USDA’s June forecast, and final exports in all three seasons were at least 4% higher than what USDA had been estimating in June. However, two of those seasons featured crop shortfalls in South America, which is not the case this year, potentially limiting U.S. export upside. Brazilian agency Conab on Thursday increased the 2024-25 corn crop to record levels, up 14% from last year. But Brazil has gotten a slow start to its corn exporting season, perhaps benefitting U.S. suppliers. Brazil’s shipments typically spike in July, though this month’s volume may not be record-setting. Brazilian corn not only has to contend with U.S. competition, but it may also have to compete for port space with soybeans, which may have a more extended export season. This could limit U.S. corn exports for 2025-26, which starts on September 1. USDA’s current 2025-26 export target is also lofty and potentially questionable given the strong South American offering, but the early progress is good, as are the U.S. harvest prospects. As of July 3, U.S. export sales for 2025-26 totaled an above-average 5.42 million tons. That is a nine-year high for the date when excluding sales to China, which has not bought significant U.S. corn volumes in over two years. BRAZIL TARIFFS The Trump administration on Wednesday announced 50% tariffs on products from Brazil starting August 1, which were linked to Brazil’s legal proceedings against former President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump. It certainly has nothing to do with trade balance, which has been the focus of U.S. tariffs on other trading partners. The United States enjoys a moderate trade surplus with Brazil when it comes to all goods. However, the U.S. is in a steep deficit when it comes to agricultural trade with Brazil, primarily due to Brazil’s ability to produce coffee, sugar and fruits. More than half of the orange juice consumed in the United States now comes from Brazilian oranges. Over 99% of the coffee consumed in the United States is imported and Brazil supplied 30% of that last year, nearly $2 billion worth. Forest products and beef were Brazil’s next-largest offerings last year, combining for nearly $3 billion, so the tariffs could certainly raise food and beverage prices for American consumers should they take effect. But there is a scenario where the American grain farmer feels pain from U.S. tariffs against Brazil, particularly if the situation is drawn out. The Brazilian real tumbled sharply on Wednesday’s announcement and then rebounded some on Thursday. After establishing record weakness against the dollar in December, the real had strengthened to near one-year highs as of this month. Any mechanism that weakens the real is beneficial to Brazilian farmers, who price their grain sales in dollars. A weaker real may elevate Brazilian farmer selling, possibly increasing export offerings. If the weakness is prolonged, it could potentially impact planting decisions for upcoming seasons as Brazilian farmers would push for the huge corn and soy crops needed to meet demand. That could also encourage the further expansion of farmland in Brazil, cutting even deeper into the United States’ global grain footprint, which has already shrunk notably over the last couple of decades. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) , opens new tab, your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/thursday-tidbits-us-corn-exports-brazil-tariffs-2025-07-10/
2025-07-10 21:00
ESMA peer review scrutinises Malta's crypto authorisation Review says authorisation process not thorough enough Maltese regulator says it welcomes the findings PARIS, July 10 (Reuters) - Malta did not do enough to assess the level of risk when granting a licence to a crypto company under the EU's new regulatory regime, the bloc's financial watchdog said on Thursday following an examination of the Maltese regulator. Reuters first reported in June that the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) was scrutinising Malta's crypto authorisation process, after some regulators raised concerns in closed-door meetings about the speed with which licences were being granted by some states. Sign up here. Under the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which came into force this year and is the world's first comprehensive set of crypto rules, companies offering crypto services must obtain a licence from a national regulator. That licence can then be "passported" to allow companies to operate in other EU member states, but the rollout has raised concerns about inconsistent approaches and whether individual regulators can effectively supervise complex cross-border financial firms. The review into Malta focused on Malta's decision to grant a licence to one particular crypto company, without specifying which. ESMA launched the review in April "following a series of events", it said, without giving further details. Malta's Financial Services Authority (MFSA) said in a statement on Thursday that it was proud of its role as an "early adopter" of digital asset regulation and did not directly address ESMA's criticisms. Malta said it has granted five crypto asset service provider licenses under MiCA since January. ESMA's review found that while MFSA had enough expertise in crypto and enough resources to authorise and supervise crypto companies under MiCA, its authorisation process only "partially" met expectations. "The overall authorisation process should have been more thorough and conducted on a sufficient time to allow MFSA to properly assess compliance against the MiCA framework," the review said. ESMA found that material issues with the crypto company were unresolved or pending remediation when the licence was granted, adding that the company's supervisory history was not "adequately considered". The review recommended that Maltese regulators pay particular attention to crypto companies' business plans, conflicts of interest, governance arrangements, IT systems and their promotion of unregulated services. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/eu-regulator-criticises-maltas-crypto-licensing-process-2025-07-10/
2025-07-10 20:52
LONDON, July 10 (Reuters) - The insurance cost of shipping goods through the Red Sea has more than doubled in recent days after Yemen's Houthis attacked and sank two ships, killing at least four seafarers after months of calm, industry sources said on Thursday. The Red Sea is a critical waterway for oil and commodities but traffic has dropped sharply since Houthi attacks off Yemen's coast began in November 2023 in what the Iran-aligned group said was in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza war. Sign up here. War risk premiums have risen to around 0.7% of the value of a ship, from around 0.3% last week before the latest attacks took place, sources familiar with the matter said, with some underwriters pausing cover for some voyages. Rates for a typical seven-day voyage period, which are set by individual underwriters, have been quoted this week at up to 1%, matching the peak level in 2024 when there were daily attacks. This adds hundreds of thousands of dollars in further costs for every shipment. "The recent attacks in the Red Sea have highlighted the need for caution when considering a transit," said Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation with the Lloyd's Market Association, which represents the interests of all underwriting businesses in Lloyd's of London. A Houthi attack on the Greek ship Eternity C on Wednesday killed four of the 25 people aboard, maritime officials said. On Thursday, rescuers pulled four more survivors from the Red Sea. Houthi militants said they were holding some of the crew still missing. The attack followed the sinking of another Greek-operated vessel on Monday, which the Houthis claimed responsibility for. Some of their sister vessels had made calls to Israeli ports in the past year, an analysis of shipping data showed. The Houthis attacked more than 100 ships from November 2023 to December 2024. In May, the U.S. announced a deal to stop bombing the Houthis in return for an end to shipping attacks, though the Houthis said the deal did not include sparing Israel. Insurance industry sources said underwriters would try to avoid covering any vessel with links with Israel, even if it was indirect. "What we have seen in the last week appears to be ... a return to mid-2024 targeting criteria, which essentially involves any vessel with even a remote Israeli connection," said Munro Anderson, head of operations at marine war risk insurance specialist Vessel Protect. "With ambiguity comes risk." https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/red-sea-insurance-soars-after-deadly-houthi-ship-attacks-2025-07-10/
