2025-07-28 10:54
US, EU avert trade war with 15% tariff agreement European shares hit four-month high after US-EU deal US, China to resume tariff talks in Stockholm July 28 (Reuters) - Gold prices steadied on Monday, with gains curbed by improved risk sentiment following a trade deal between the United States and the European Union, while investors looked forward to the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting later this week. Spot gold was flat at $3,335.87 per ounce as of 1035 GMT, after touching its lowest level since July 17 earlier in the day. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures were unchanged at $3,335.30 per ounce. Washington struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union in Scotland on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate - and averting a bigger trade war. Risk appetite in the wider financial markets rose with European shares advancing to a four-month high, led by gains in auto and pharmaceutical stocks. Meanwhile, talks between the U.S. and China are scheduled in Stockholm on Monday amid expectations of another 90-day extension to the trade war truce between the world's top two economies. "There are two offsetting factors keeping gold in balance. The (U.S.-EU) trade deal weighs on demand for safe-haven assets," said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "At the same time the deal removes some inflation uncertainty for the Fed, eventually allowing the Fed to cut rates later this year, which normally is gold supportive." The U.S. central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25% to 4.50% range after its two-day policy meeting concludes on Wednesday. Markets continue to price in a potential rate cut in September. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he had a positive meeting with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, suggesting the Fed chief might be inclined to lower interest rates. Gold tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver was unchanged at $38.12 per ounce, while platinum rose 0.2% at $1,404.72 and palladium gained 1.2% to $1,234.97. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-subdued-by-risk-on-mood-after-us-eu-tariff-deal-focus-fed-2025-07-28/
2025-07-28 10:50
United States, EU avert trade war with 15% tariff deal US, China to resume tariff talks in bid to extend truce OPEC+ panel likely to keep oil policy steady, sources say LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday as investors assessed a trade deal between the United States and the European Union that averted 30% tariffs on most EU goods. Brent crude futures were up 76 cents, or 1.1%, to $69.20 a barrel by 1028 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $65.90 a barrel, up 74 cents, or 1.1%. Sign up here. The U.S.-European Union trade deal and a possible extension of the U.S.-China tariff pause are supporting global financial markets and oil prices, IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said. Sunday's U.S.-EU framework trade pact sets an import tariff of 15% on most EU goods, while U.S. President Trump said the deal calls for $750 billion of EU purchases of U.S. energy in the coming years. Senior U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Stockholm on Monday to try to extend a tariff truce before an August 12 deadline. The U.S.-EU deal removed another layer of uncertainty and the focus seems to be shifting back towards fundamentals, while the strong dollar and falling Indian crude oil imports have weighed on prices, PVM analyst Tamas Varga said. On the supply side, an OPEC+ panel is unlikely to alter existing plans to raise oil output when it meets on Monday, four OPEC+ delegates told Reuters on July 25. ING expects OPEC+ will at least complete the full return of 2.2 million barrels per day of the additional voluntary supply cuts by the end of September. Also on the supply side, Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA is readying to resume work, once Trump reinstates authorisations for its partners to operate and export oil under swaps, company sources said. In the Middle East, Yemen's Houthis said on Sunday they would target ships of companies that do business with Israeli ports, regardless of nationality, in what they called a fourth phase of military operations against Israel over the Gaza conflict. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-after-us-eu-trade-deal-2025-07-28/
2025-07-28 10:49
NEW DELHI, July 28 (Reuters) - A global slowdown could further dampen demand for Indian exports and continued uncertainty on U.S. tariffs may weigh on the country's trade performance in coming quarters, India's finance ministry said in its monthly economic report. India's goods exports fell to $35.14 billion in June, down 9% from May, and remained nearly flat from a year earlier. The figure was the lowest since November's $32.11 billion, according to LSEG data. Sign up here. "Despite global headwinds marked by trade tensions, geopolitical volatility, and external uncertainties, India’s macroeconomic fundamentals have remained resilient," said the report released on Monday. Even as the outlook for Indian economy is positive, Asia's third largest economy faces downside risks such as a global slowdown, particularly the U.S. economy shrinking 0.5% in January-March, impacting India's exports, it said. The report also said that the country's inflation rate in 2025-26 could undershoot the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) expectation of 3.7%. Retail inflation in June fell to over a six-year low of 2.1%. RBI Governor Sanjay Malholtra last week said the central bank has "won the battle against inflation", but the war is ongoing as price stability remains the central goal. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/global-slowdown-could-dampen-demand-indian-exports-finance-ministry-report-says-2025-07-28/
2025-07-28 10:42
LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. European stocks and Wall Street futures climbed again after the weekend deal between the United States and European Union averted a trade war between two allies that account for almost a third of global trade. The euphoria also lifted the dollar across the board. The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the EU on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate. The agreement mirrored key parts of the accord the U.S. reached with Japan last week, but, like that deal, this one leaves many open questions, including regarding tariffs on spirits and wine. * Euro zone stocks (.STOXXE) , opens new tab jumped almost 1% to within a whisker of the record high set earlier this month, with S&P 500 futures up modestly ahead of the bell. The dollar's .DXY rise was less intuitive, but analysts said reduced trade tensions may allow markets to now refocus on yield differentials. * U.S. trade deals with the EU, Japan and UK are seen as a significant win for Washington, as they secure higher tariffs on imports into the U.S. without retaliation and include commitments for additional investment to boot. Not all in Europe were happy with the tariff hike. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou called it a "sombre day" for Europe, which he said had resigned itself to submission. U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators now resume talks in Stockholm, but the August 1 deadline on U.S. tariffs has been defused considerably as a major market issue. * Traders on Monday will also be keeping tabs on an OPEC+ ministerial meeting, but no change is expected in the production stance. It's also a heavy day of Treasury debt sales, with $139 billion of two- and five-year notes under the hammer. Treasury yields were softer going into the sales. * The week ahead is jam packed with events: policy meetings at the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada; updates on the U.S. labor market, GDP and inflation; four megacap earnings reports and a quarterly refunding announcement. Today's column examines why the Fed may struggle to come up with justification for a rate hike in September. Today's Market Minute * The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods - half the threatened rate - and averting a bigger trade war between the two allies that account for almost a third of global trade. * Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials will resume talks in Stockholm on Monday to try to tackle longstanding economic disputes at the centre of a trade war between the world's top two economies, aiming to extend a truce by three months and keeping sharply higher tariffs at bay. * The Bank of England is expected to soon slow the pace at which it shrinks its 558 billion-pound ($754 billion) holdings of government bonds, and economists hope next week will shed some light on its longer-term goals for the stockpile. * New European Union sanctions targeting Russia's oil industry will reshuffle global diesel flows for the second time since 2022, adding pressure to an already red-hot market, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso. * ROI columnist Clyde Russell claims the framework agreement reached between the U.S. and China has strong echoes of Donald Trump's failed trade deal with China from his first term as U.S. president. Chart of the day The U.S.-EU trade deal sees 15% levies on European exports to the United States. While the tariff applies to most goods, including semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, there are exceptions. The U.S. will keep in place a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, for example, and there's no guarantee pharma will face higher tariffs in future either. What's more, discussions are still continuing regarding any tariff exemptions for EU wines and spirits, European Commission officials said, referring to the highly contentious area. Today's events to watch * Dallas Federal Reserve July manufacturing survey (10:30 AM EDT) * U.S. corporate earnings: Universal Health, Nucor, Principal Financial, Cincinnati Financial, Veralto, Cadence, Brown & Brown, Waste Management, Welltower, Hartford Insurance, Revvity * U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators resume talks in Stockholm * President Donald Trump meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland * OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting * U.S. Treasury sells $69 billion of 2-year notes, $70 billion of 5-year notes Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-07-28/
2025-07-28 10:40
LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - The pound briefly hit a two-year low versus the euro on Monday, before rebounding, and dipped on the dollar, though its moves were largely a function of those elsewhere as investors digested the announcement of an EU-U.S. trade deal. The pound was last down 0.2% on the dollar at $1.34185, its lowest in a week, having struggled late last week because of soft British retail sales and business activity data. Sign up here. The pound was more volatile against the euro, which rose as high as 87.69 pence in early Asia trade, its highest since May 2023, as its gains last week were extended in a kneejerk bounce after the announcement of the trade deal. The common currency then reversed course, both broadly, and on the pound, as investors speculated that U.S. trade deals, in aggregate, would boost the dollar and so the euro's gains at its expense would cease. On the pound the euro was last down 0.5% at 86.99 pence. Investors are divided on sterling, partly due to disagreement on whether the Bank of England will step up the pace of its rate cuts later this year, something that would weigh on the currency. Inflation in Britain has proven sticky, meaning policymakers are loath to cut rates too quickly unless they are forced to, and recent data - soft but not terrible - has not yet definitively answered that question. "Another round of only modestly weaker data than expected were enough to push sterling to fresh lows versus the euro," said Barclays analysts in a note. "In our view, the pound's weakness is overdone and due a correction," they said, anticipating that the euro will fall to around 85 pence, which would be consistent with the gap between British and euro zone interest rates. Others expect that more BoE cuts, while the ECB now appears to be on hold, would hurt the pound against the euro. Nomura analysts see the euro rising to 89.75 pence. Little British economic data is due this week. The BoE meets next week, and markets are all but fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut, one of only two more they expect this year. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-bounces-off-two-year-low-euro-soft-dollar-2025-07-28/
2025-07-28 10:23
MUMBAI, July 28 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee dipped on Monday as month-end dollar bids from importers exerted some pressure, but the currency largely sidestepped the spillover from a firmer dollar, which traders indicated was due to the absence of substantial outflows. The rupee closed at 86.6650 against the U.S. dollar, 0.2% down from its close of 86.5150 in the previous session. Sign up here. While the rupee was trading marginally stronger in the first half of the session, it reversed course in the latter half as the dollar index rose. Asian currencies were a tad lower on the day, with the offshore Chinese yuan down by 0.1%. The rupee is "only reacting to flows" over recent sessions, and has found some support above 86.60, a trader at a state-run bank said, pointing to price action driven by foreign portfolio flows and corporate activity. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab fell 0.7% and 0.63% on the day, respectively, diverging from gains in most regional equities. The country's benchmark 10-year bond yield, meanwhile, ticked up to 6.3603%. Equities in Europe were mostly higher while the euro fell, after the U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement over the weekend and investors welcomed the deal with cautious optimism. The euro's recent price action "likely reflects more general U.S. dollar sentiment that was improving toward the end of last week, and we suspect (the sentiment) could extend further this week as investors’ optimism over the U.S. economy improves," MUFG said in a note. U.S. economic data, including the closely watched non-farm payrolls report, will be in focus as investors gauge how far the optimism extends. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, will deliver its policy decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a little over 60% chance of a rate cut in September, per CME's FedWatch tool. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-slips-sidesteps-firmer-dollar-flows-dominate-price-action-2025-07-28/
