2025-07-02 12:29

BUENOS AIRES, July 2 (Reuters) - The rallying Mexican peso is set to slip in the coming months after a temporary freeze on U.S. tariff hikes against other countries expires next week, a Reuters poll showed. This would end a run-up that brought the currency to its strongest in almost a year last quarter following a sharp drop due to trade concerns at the end of 2024. Sign up here. So far, the recovery has been supported by what turned out to be relatively benign new rules for Mexican exports in U.S. President Donald Trump's overhaul of trade, as well as by the dollar's retreat. The peso is forecast to fall by a moderate 5.5% over the next 12 months to 19.80 per dollar from 18.72 on Tuesday, according to the median estimate of 22 FX experts polled June 27-July 2. That new one-year consensus view is the firmest since an estimate of 19.20 per dollar in October. Year-to-date, the Mexican peso is up 13.2%. In the last week of a 90-day pause on steep tariffs for many countries that Trump announced in April, tensions remain high between the United States and China, the European Union and Japan as trade partners work on different proposals. While global frictions could weigh on its volatile currency, Erick Martinez, Latam FX and rates strategist at Barclays said: "Mexico is not subject to reciprocal tariffs, taking pressure off the peso into the global July 9 deadline." Any weakness should be limited "thanks to the protection of the USMCA (agreement) by which Mexico has maintained preferential trade treatment in the U.S.," said Alejandro Saldaña, chief economist at Ve por Mas. Monetary policy also looks supportive as the Mexican central bank's cautious easing cycle and the possibility of rate cuts in the United States mean the market anticipates high local interest rate spreads will persist. However, the potential renegotiation of Mexico's trade agreement with the U.S. and Canada is likely to stoke uncertainty. In Brazil, the real , will likely depreciate 4% to 5.69 per dollar from 5.46 on Monday in 12 months. The currency is shielded by the highest local interest rate in two decades. In Argentina, the peso is seen dropping 17% in one year to 1,465 per dollar, a moderate variation for the crisis-stricken currency that would still leave it within government targets. Year-to-date, the Brazilian real has gained 11.2% and the Argentine peso has shed 15.7%. (Other stories from the July Reuters foreign exchange poll) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-peso-set-slip-after-expiry-us-tariff-hike-freeze-2025-07-02/

2025-07-02 12:16

Revised US Senate bill boosts wind power prospects Vestas shares rise 9%, Nordex up 1.3% Revised bill extends US renewable cycle to 2030, analysts say July 2 (Reuters) - Shares in European renewable energy companies rose on Wednesday after the U.S. Senate passed a revised budget bill the previous day which was more positive for wind power compared to an earlier version. U.S. President Donald Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" makes it harder to develop wind and solar energy projects in the U.S. by effectively phasing out renewable energy tax credits after 2026 if projects have not started construction. Sign up here. In the Senate's final version, projects will be able to use the lucrative credits if they begin construction before 2026. A previous version was based on when the projects enter service. "Last-minute changes provide significantly better conditions for the wind industry compared to the previous draft," Sydbank analysts say in a research note. Shares of Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas (VWS.CO) , opens new tab were up 9%, while German peer Nordex (NDXG.DE) , opens new tab rose about 1.3%. Vestas and other renewable energy stocks in Europe have been sensitive to the news around the bill this year. The Americas accounted for about 39% of Vestas' revenue last year. Citi analysts said in a note that the revised text removes a 2027 "cliff" and essentially extends the U.S. cycle into 2030. "We see significant incentives for developers to place orders no later than H1 '26 in order to lock-in credits for in-service from 2028," they said. Danish offshore wind developer Orsted (ORSTED.CO) , opens new tab and Portuguese renewable energy firm EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.LS) , opens new tab were up 3.6% and 1.8%, respectively. "With regard to our business...the current proposal has no impact on our projects currently under construction and offers investment security for these," German utility RWE (RWEG.DE) , opens new tab said. Shares in RWE, the world's second-largest developer of offshore wind farms, were up 0.2%, while solar inverter maker SMA Solar (S92G.DE) , opens new tab jumped 10% to its highest price since March. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/european-renewable-energy-companies-shares-rise-after-revised-us-senate-bill-2025-07-02/

2025-07-02 11:59

LONDON, July 2 (Reuters) - Highlights of the third day at the Wimbledon tennis championships on Wednesday (times GMT): 2120 FRITZ BATTLES PAST DIALLO IN LATE THRILLER American fifth seed Taylor Fritz was taken to five sets before overcoming Canadian Gabriel Diallo 3-6 6-3 7-6(0) 4-6 6-3, in a match which lasted more than three hours. Sign up here. Fritz, who was also taken the distance in the first round, was able to finish the match after the roof was closed on Court Number One, with play suspended for the night on the other courts. READ MORE: Tarvet's Wimbledon journey ends with Alcaraz lesson in mental toughness Tiafoe not surprised at Wimbledon seeds' exodus Raducanu back to her carefree best as she knocks out Vondrousova Rakhimova knocks Paolini out in Wimbledon second round From despair to Wimbledon third round, Argentina's Sierra cashing in on lucky break Normality returns to Wimbledon as Alcaraz and Sabalenka ease through Sabalenka urges Zverev to open up to family over mental health issues Big hits, small margins as Rublev rethinks grasscourt game Alcaraz ends Tarvet fairytale to reach Wimbledon third round Djokovic faces Evans test at Wimbledon, Rybakina takes on Sakkari Norrie returns to favourite Wimbledon stage to stun Tiafoe Keys stays on course for rare Australian Open-Wimbledon double Sabalenka sees off Bouzkova to reach Wimbledon third round Wimbledon’s AI judges receive mixed reviews from players and fans Zverev considers therapy after shock first round Wimbledon exit 1950 PLAY SUSPENDED FOR TWO MATCHES BUT FRITZ CONTINUES The match between Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime and German Jan-Lennard Struff was suspended, level after two sets, as was British wildcard Arthur Fery's clash with Luciano Darderi, with the Italian two sets up. The roof was closed on Number One Court, where play continued between American fifth seed Taylor Fritz and Canada's Gabriel Diallo, with Fritz two sets to one ahead. 1935 LEHECKA OUSTED BY BELLUCCI Czech 23rd seed Jiri Lehecka, who reached the Queen's Club last month, was beaten 7-6(4) 6-1 7-5 by Mattia Bellucci, and the Italian will face Britain's Cameron Norrie in the third round. Lehecka was the 15th men's seed to exit the tournament. 1930 KRUEGER BECOMES 15TH WOMEN'S SEED TO EXIT TOURNAMENT American 31st seed Ashlyn Krueger was beaten 7-6(4) 6-4 by Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, making it 15 of the 32 seeds who are also out of the women's draw halfway through the second round. 1905 SVITOLINA SAILS PAST SASNOVICH Ukrainian 14th seed Elina Svitolina had a comfortable 6-2 6-4 win over Belarusian qualifier Aliaksandra Sasnovich and will meet Belgian Elise Mertens in the third round. 1855 LAST YEAR'S FINALIST PAOLINI KNOCKED OUT BY RAKHIMOVA Russian Kamilla Rakhimova came from a set down to stun last year's finalist Jasmine Paolini, beating the Italian fourth seed 4-6 6-4 6-4 to set up a third-round clash with Czech 30th seed Linda Noskova. Paolini became the fourth top-five seed to exit the women's draw after Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula and Zheng Qinwen. 1848 RADUCANU BEATS VONDROUSOVA TO SET UP SABALENKA CLASH Britain's Emma Raducanu reached the third round with a 6-3 6-3 win over 2023 champion Marketa Vondrousova, repeating her second-round victory in 2021 over the Czech and earning a meeting with world number one Aryna Sabalenka. "I guess there's no pressure on me at all in the next match," a laughing Raducanu said in her on-court interview. 1845 BOULTER, SHNAIDER STUNNED Argentine lucky loser Solana Sierra pulled off a remarkable comeback to beat home favourite Katie Boulter 6-7(7) 6-2 6-1 and reach the third round where she faces Spain's Cristina Bucsa. Russian 12th seed Diana Shnaider lost 6-4 6-1 to French qualifier Diane Parry, who also booked a place in the last 32 against home hope Sonay Kartal. 1757 ALCARAZ EXTENDS WINNING RUN TO REACH THIRD ROUND Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz cruised past British qualifier Oliver Tarvet 6-1 6-4 6-4 to notch up his 20th consecutive victory on tour. The Spanish second seed will face either Felix Auger-Aliassime or Jan-Lennard Struff in the third round. 1725 RUSSIANS RUBLEV, KHACHANOV PROGRESS Russian 17th seed Karen Khachanov edged past Japan's Shintaro Mochizuki 1-6 7-6(7) 4-6 6-3 6-4 in a hard-fought five-setter to reach the third round. Compatriot Andrey Rublev, seeded 14th, rallied from a set down to beat South Africa's Lloyd Harris 6-7(1) 6-4 7-6(5) 6-3. 1510 NORRIE DOWNS TIAFOE Cameron Norrie became the first Briton to reach the men's third round after he fought back to upset American 12th seed Frances Tiafoe 4-6 6-4 6-3 7-5. 1414 SABALENKA ADVANCES TO ROUND THREE World number one Aryna Sabalenka was forced to battle through a difficult opening set before going on to beat Czech Marie Bouzkova, a former Wimbledon quarter-finalist, 7-6(4) 6-4. 1330 KEYS EASES PAST DANILOVIC Australian Open champion Madison Keys fired off 19 winners to claim a 6-4 6-2 win over Serbian Olga Danilovic in an hour and 15 minutes to reach the third round. 1318 LOCAL HOPE KARTAL ADVANCES Briton Sonay Kartal sealed a comfortable 6-2 6-2 victory over Bulgarian Viktoriya Tomova to move into round three. "I felt good on court today. I was hitting it really clean. It was one of those good days at the office," Kartal said. 1155 PLAY UNDER WAY Players walked out on to the court at the All England Club after a delay lasting more than one-and-a-half hours due to rain. 1045 START FURTHER DELAYED BY RAIN Play on all outside courts at Wimbledon will not begin until at least 1115 GMT due to rain. 1000 RAIN DELAYS START The start of day three at Wimbledon has been pushed back by 45 minutes to 1045 GMT due to rain. The temperature is around 19 degrees Celsius and intermittent rain is expected throughout the day, after the first two days of the tournament were played in very hot and sunny conditions. WIMBLEDON ORDER OF PLAY ON WEDNESDAY (prefix number denotes seeding) CENTRE COURT (play begins at 1230 GMT) 1-Aryna Sabalenka (Belarus) v Marie Bouzkova (Czech Republic) Oliver Tarvet (Britain) v 2-Carlos Alcaraz (Spain) Emma Raducanu (Britain) v Marketa Vondrousova (Czech Republic) COURT NUMBER ONE (play begins at 1200 GMT) Cameron Norrie (Britain) v 12-Frances Tiafoe (France) Katie Boulter (Britain) v Solana Sierra (Argentina) 5-Taylor Fritz (U.S.) v Gabriel Diallo (Canada) COURT NUMBER TWO (play begins at 1000 GMT) Olga Danilovic (Serbia) v 6-Madison Keys (U.S.) Nuno Borges (Portugal) v Billy Harris (Britain) Naomi Osaka (Japan) v Katerina Siniakova (Czech Republic) Arthur Fery (Britain) v Luciano Darderi (Italy) https://www.reuters.com/sports/tennis/wimbledon-day-three-2025-07-02/

2025-07-02 11:48

BENGALURU, July 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will remain weak over the coming months, a Reuters poll of FX analysts forecast, caught in a tangle of mounting U.S. debt concerns, erratic tariff policies and rising interest rate cut expectations. Growing unease over President Donald Trump’s on-again off-again tariffs, and a tax-cut and spending bill that is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt, have led to a scurry of investor outflows from dollar-denominated assets in recent months. Sign up here. A surge in the "term premium" - compensation investors demand to hold longer-term debt - has also contributed to a nearly 11% dollar decline against a basket of major currencies this year (.DXY) , opens new tab and to a three-and-a-half-year low against the euro and sterling last week. Recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also showed the short-dollar trade was at a near two-year high, suggesting further weakness may be in the offing. Asked how that positioning would change by end-July, more than 80% of FX analysts in a June 27-July 2 Reuters poll, 42 of 52, said it would broadly hold or net-shorts would increase. A majority of these same FX analysts surveyed by Reuters in April and again in May had already concluded the reserve currency’s "safe haven" shine had partly eroded. "We are expecting a weaker U.S. dollar in the coming months," said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "The recent budget, the inflationary impact tariffs are going to have and what that means for the Federal Reserve, and the pointed comments President Trump is using against Fed Chair Jerome Powell - all of that doesn't bode well for the overall U.S. economic outlook at least over the rest of the year." Trump has repeatedly demanded immediate and deep rate cuts. Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, reiterated on Tuesday the central bank's plan was to "wait and learn more" about the impact of tariffs on inflation before lowering interest rates. TARIFF NEGOTIATIONS Asked what would be the main driver for the U.S. dollar over the coming month, nearly 37% of respondents, 22 of 60, said "tariff negotiations". Attention will now turn to Trump's next move after the July 9 expiry of a 90-day pause on sweeping tariffs he announced in early April. Eighteen respondents said "interest rate differentials", which have not been important in recent months - with the euro surging while the European Central Bank was cutting rates and the Fed on hold all year. Thirteen said "portfolio diversification", supporting findings from a June survey where a near-90% majority of FX strategists said demand for dollar assets would decline. Seven chose "debate over Fed independence". The euro, up nearly 14% so far this year and on course for its best annual performance against the greenback since 2017, was forecast to hold steady at $1.18 in six months and climb about 2% to $1.20 in a year, survey medians from 70 strategists showed. Nearly 70% of FX analysts in the latest survey upgraded their euro-dollar forecasts from last month, leading to the highest medians since September 2021. But most of those forecasts were formulated in the past week, during which the common currency gained nearly 3%, suggesting they will soon be upgraded. "We continue to watch this slower burn story of real money and... a consistent selling of the dollar, particularly from European real money," said Alex Cohen, FX strategist at Bank of America. "That just speaks to more structural reasons for the dollar to continue to grind lower in the coming months." (Other stories from the July foreign exchange poll) https://www.reuters.com/business/us-dollar-stay-under-pressure-tariff-debt-rate-cut-expectations-2025-07-02/

2025-07-02 11:39

Russian economy adapted to sanctions, central bank's head says Russian inflation is slowing down New structural shift lies ahead, Nabiullina warns ST PETERSBURG, Russia, July 2 (Reuters) - The Russian economy has adapted to Western sanctions and inflation is now slowing, but turbulent times and major technological shifts lie ahead, central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Wednesday. Despite the sanctions, the Russian economy grew by 4.3% last year but is set to slow sharply in 2025, with many officials and economists saying that the current model has exhausted its growth potential. Sign up here. "We have adapted to some external challenges (but) no, we are facing very turbulent times ahead," said Nabiullina, who is widely credited with steering the Russian economy through the Ukraine military conflict and resulting sanctions. "But I am confident that this also presents new opportunities for development and for increasing labour productivity in conditions of expensive labour. We base our efforts on this," she told a banking conference. She stressed that the high cost of labour - spurred by the military spending that has led to a wage growth spiral in many sectors, as well as by curbs on immigration - would remain for a long time. Nabiullina said the economy should in future rely entirely on domestic sources of financing as cheap funding from abroad, abundant before the Ukraine conflict, is no longer available. "In my view, structural adaptation to external constraints has been completed. We have demonstrated our ability to adapt to these challenges, but now we are facing structural shifts of an entirely new kind, primarily technological ones," she said. "They may have even more far-reaching consequences than what we experienced over the past two years," Nabiullina said, mentioning artificial intelligence applications in the economy as one such challenge. INFLATION SLOWING The central bank, which has faced heavy criticism over its tight monetary policy, began cutting its key interest rate last month as prices started to come down, helped by the rouble's strength. Nabiullina said inflation is now slowing faster than the central bank expected, and there are signs of easing in the severity of labour market shortages. She said that if economic indicators pointed to a more significant slowdown than anticipated, the central bank would have room for bolder interest rate cuts. She dismissed statements by critics of the bank, who want deeper cuts, that the cooling of the economy was excessive. Nabiullina also rejected statements from many businessman and bankers that the rouble is now overvalued and should weaken to please exporting companies, which saw their revenues shrink as the rouble rallied by over 40% against the dollar this year. "A weak exchange rate is often a sign of vulnerability, a result of chronically high inflation and a lack of confidence in one’s own currency. It is hardly something to strive for," she said. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russian-central-bank-governor-says-inflation-is-slowing-faster-than-expected-2025-07-02/

2025-07-02 11:31

Fault behind fire found in 2018 but went unaddressed - report Energy minister says report is 'deeply concerning' Regulator opens probe into National Grid, says fault preventable Also plans audit of NG assets to see if incident was one-off LONDON, July 2 (Reuters) - A fire that shut London's Heathrow airport in March, stranding thousands of people, was caused by the UK power grid's failure to maintain an electricity substation, an official report said on Wednesday, prompting the energy watchdog to open a probe. The closure of Heathrow, Europe's busiest airport, cost airlines tens of millions of pounds. It also raised questions about the resilience of Britain's infrastructure. Sign up here. Energy minister Ed Miliband called the report "deeply concerning," after it concluded that the issue which caused the fire was identified seven years ago but went unaddressed by power grid operator National Grid (NG.L) , opens new tab. Energy regulator Ofgem said it was "a preventable, technical fault". The report follows a review of the March 21 incident by the National Energy System Operator, which manages the electricity network and was separated from National Grid last year. As a result of the report, Ofgem launched an enforcement investigation into National Grid Electricity Transmission (NGET), which owns and maintains the high-voltage electricity transmission network in England and Wales. FULL AUDIT The report said a "catastrophic failure" on one of the transformer's high voltage bushings at NGET's 275 kilovolt substation caused the transformer to catch fire, most likely due to moisture entering the bushing, sparking an electrical fault. Despite detecting an elevated moisture reading in one of the bushings in 2018, which indicates an imminent fault that requires the component to be replaced, the company did not fix the issue, the report said. The controls in place were not effective and failed to identify that no action had been taken, including during an opportunity in 2022 when NGET decided to defer basic maintenance, letting the issue go unaddressed, it added. A National Grid spokesperson said that the company had a comprehensive asset inspection and maintenance programme in place and that it had taken further action since the fire. "There are important lessons to be learnt about cross-sector resilience and the need for increased coordination," the spokesperson said. Ofgem plans to review whether National Grid complied with the relevant legislation and licence conditions relating to the development and maintenance of its electricity system close to Heathrow. The regulator will also commission an independent audit into National Grid assets to review whether the failings were a one-off or systemic, it said. In an emailed response to the report, Heathrow blamed the incident on a "combination of outdated regulation, inadequate safety mechanisms, and National Grid’s failure to maintain its infrastructure". Its own review found in May that the airport had responded well to the power outage, saying alternative choices would not have materially changed the outcome on the day. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/fire-that-led-heathrow-shutdown-caused-by-substation-component-failure-energy-2025-07-02/