2025-07-01 11:50
SINTRA, Portugal, July 1 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank can afford to wait a while before contemplating any further change in interest rates, and it is not obvious the bank should ease much more in the current cycle, Estonian policymaker Madis Müller said on Tuesday. The ECB has cut its benchmark deposit rate by a combined 2 percentage points since last June but it has signalled a pause for July and financial investors are expecting an even longer break, anticipating just one more cut towards the end of the year. Sign up here. "It makes sense for policy to stay on hold for a while," Müller told Reuters on the sidelines of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. "It’s reasonable not to change rates in July," Müller said. "While it’s too early to discuss the autumn, it’s also reasonable to assume that we should not go much lower during the current cycle, unless the euro area economy will turn out to be much weaker than we expect." The ECB can afford to take its time because inflation has essentially reached its 2% target, growth is recovering and interest rates are no longer a drag on economic growth. However, trade negotiations with the United States and prospects for greater military and infrastructure spending, particularly in Germany, could materially alter the outlook, so policymakers are well advised to take their time until there is greater clarity. The ECB can also sit tight because risks around the inflation outlook are broadly balanced - a rare moment for the bank, which has spent the last decade first fighting excessively low and then exceptionally high inflation. The euro's rapid appreciation could weigh on price growth, however, and prove a drag on exporters' profitability. But Müller said things were not at a level that would have him concerned. The euro was trading just above 1.18 against the dollar on Tuesday, its highest level since the autumn of 2021 and well above the 1.02 in early 2025, before the Trump administration's erratic policies turned the dollar's fortunes around. "The euro exchange rate against the dollar is well within the historical range," he said. "The appreciation this year has indeed been quick but we’re not at a level where I am particularly concerned." https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ecb-can-afford-hold-off-further-rate-changes-while-mller-says-2025-07-01/
2025-07-01 11:48
TUNIS, July 1 (Reuters) - An Algerian court upheld on Tuesday a five-year prison sentence being served by French-Algerian writer Boualem Sansal for undermining national unity, Ennahar TV said, prompting a call for clemency by France. Sansal, 80, had been living in France but was detained while visiting Algeria in November and sentenced in March after making statements to a French media outlet in which he endorsed Morocco's position that part of its territory was seized under French colonialism and annexed to Algeria. Sign up here. Sansal denied the charges. He said his statements were made within the framework of freedom of expression and that he had no intention of offending Algeria. "France regrets the appeal court's decision to impose a prison sentence on our compatriot Boualem Sansal, which maintains the sentence handed down by the lower court", the French Foreign Ministry said. It said France urged the Algerian authorities to show clemency and find a swift, humanitarian and dignified solution to the situation of our compatriot, taking into account his state of health and humanitarian considerations. French President Emmanuel Macron had called for Sandal's release after he was sentenced in March. Ties between Paris and Algiers have deteriorated since France recognised Morocco's sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara. Algiers' refusal to take back those deported by French authorities and Sansal's detention have exacerbated tensions, with each side expelling some of the other's diplomats. https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/algerian-court-upholds-five-year-jail-term-french-algerian-writer-2025-07-01/
2025-07-01 11:30
RIO DE JANEIRO, July 1 (Reuters) - Brazilian state-run oil firm Petrobras (PETR4.SA) , opens new tab will raise the average price of jet fuel sold to distributors by 2.9%, or 0.09 real ($0.0166) per liter, starting July 1, the company said in a statement on Tuesday. Petrobras makes monthly tweaks to its jet fuel prices based on factors including oil prices and the foreign exchange rate. Sign up here. ($1 = 5.4283 reais) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/brazils-petrobras-raises-jet-fuel-prices-by-29-2025-07-01/
2025-07-01 11:10
July 1 (Reuters) - Sterling neared a three-year high on Tuesday, aided by a broad dollar weakness, as uncertainty about the health of the U.S. economy continued to pressure the U.S. currency and forced investors to look for alternatives. The pound , edged up 0.4% to $1.378 at 1013 GMT, after logging its strongest quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2022 in the previous session. Investors were awaiting the outcome of a vote in the British parliament on a highly contested welfare bill, however, which could weigh on the pound. Sign up here. Further aiding the currency's gains this year has been the cautious stance on monetary policy easing by the Bank of England, compared with others such as the European Central Bank. Sterling was broadly steady against the euro, which traded at 85.75 pence on Tuesday, close to its highest since late April. Back home, the focus was on a vote expected during the day on a welfare reform bill that could also test the stability of the Labour government run by Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Starmer sharply scaled back planned welfare cuts last week after the proposed reforms, which were aimed at shrinking a ballooning benefits bill, sparked a rebellion among lawmakers in his party that sees itself as the protector of the welfare state. "The government has already been forced to make about 4 billion pounds of concessions to get the bill through – although its passage is not guaranteed," said Chris Turner, global head of markets and regional head of research for UK and CEE at ING. "Any failure to get the bill through could hit sterling and gilts on the view that further concessions will have to be made at a time when there is no fiscal headroom." Global investors were scrutinising a batch of reports on business activity performance. In Britain, data showed the manufacturing sector showed some signs of turning a corner in its long slump in June and businesses pushed up their prices in June to offset higher labour costs. Limiting gains for sterling was a drop in gilt yields. The benchmark 10-year bond yield dropped 6 basis points to 4.438%, following comments by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. The central bank chief highlighted Britain's softening labour market and said an uncertain global economic outlook had "definitely" hurt economic growth and investment intentions. Traders anticipate that the BoE will lower borrowing costs by at least 25 basis points in September, according to data compiled by LSEG. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-firms-three-year-peak-focus-welfare-bill-vote-2025-07-01/
2025-07-01 11:04
NEW YORK, July 1 (Reuters) - The BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) said on Tuesday that growing uncertainty around traditionally stable, long-term economic trends is pushing it toward shorter-term strategies amid an increasingly unclear global economic outlook. For decades, markets have relied on core principles such as inflation stability, government fiscal discipline, central bank independence, and the safe-haven status of U.S. assets like the dollar and Treasuries. But investor confidence in these foundations has been shaken this year by U.S. tariffs, concerns over the future political independence of the Federal Reserve, and a broad re-evaluation of exposure to U.S. assets as U.S. President Donald Trump moves to reshape global trade dynamics. Sign up here. "Longer term, with macro anchors lost, no one knows where the global economy is ultimately headed," BII, a division of U.S.-based BlackRock focused on investment research, said in a mid-year 2025 global investment outlook note. "That’s why, for now, we invest in the here and now – and lean more on our tactical six- to 12-month horizon," it said. The institute's investment outlooks are based on views from senior portfolio managers and investment executives at BlackRock, which is the world's largest asset manager. BII said it has turned more optimistic on government bonds in the euro area over the next six to 12 months. In equities, it continues to favor U.S. stocks over their European counterparts. Higher government spending in Europe could support the aerospace, defense, and financial sectors. But U.S. stocks are expected to outperform, driven by the artificial intelligence boom and demand for technology, even if tariffs will be a drag on the economy, it said. Tariffs and slowing U.S. immigration are expected to maintain upward pressure on inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, BII said. The institute kept a bearish stance on long-dated U.S. Treasuries and shifted from an "underweight" to a "neutral" view on emerging market local currency debt after the dollar lost about 10% this year against major currencies. "The potential for a further U.S. dollar retreat and brighter emerging market (EM) growth outlook make local currency EM bonds more attractive in a whole portfolio context," it said. https://www.reuters.com/business/blackrock-eyes-shorter-term-bets-amid-shaky-global-economic-foundations-2025-07-01/
2025-07-01 11:01
JAKARTA, July 1 (Reuters) - Indonesia has issued a new regulation to attract investment from oil drilling technology providers in an effort to boost production from existing wells, officials said on Tuesday. The policy is mainly aimed at the reactivation of idle wells, deputy energy minister Yuliot Tanjung told reporters, as part of efforts to lift oil output to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2029-2030 from currently less than 600,000 bpd. Sign up here. Once a net exporter of oil and gas, Indonesia's production in the past decade has been on a steady decline due to ageing wells and a lack of new investment. President Prabowo Subianto aims to reach energy self-sufficiency under his leadership and energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia has said in the past that reactivation of idle wells could potentially increase oil production by around 200,000 bpd. Under the new policy, oil and gas block operators will be allowed to partner with technology providers to increase output from old or idle wells or fields, which operators often focus less on in favour of newer, more economical wells. "Many of these operators need partnership from vendors that have the latest technology," Yuliot said. The government has identified around 2,500 wells and more than 100 fields or structures that operators can open up to partnership with such vendors. Meanwhile, to increase production in the long term, the government is preparing 74 new oil and gas blocks to offer to companies in coming year, Yuliot said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indonesia-seeks-attract-new-technology-oil-drilling-2025-07-01/
