2025-07-21 04:34
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole As far as investors are concerned, Japan's upper house election has been a sell on the rumour, buy (a little) on the fact. Sign up here. Japanese markets are closed for the Marine Day public holiday so liquidity has been lacking, but so far the yen is up a shade on the dollar and euro while Nikkei futures traded in Chicago are much in line with Friday's cash close. Wall Street futures are up a fraction and European futures down a touch. While the ruling coalition lost control of the upper house, by three seats, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba seems to be safe for now, though he will have to find support from minor parties to pass legislation. The government can also continue its fraught tariff negotiations with the U.S. administration. The talks still seem deadlocked, partly over agricultural imports which are politically and culturally very sensitive for Japan, as President Donald Trump's arbitrary August 1 deadline approaches fast. The European Union is in much the same situation. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says he's confident a deal can be struck, but the EU side is preparing a list of U.S. products for retaliation levies. The EU is also trying to use China as leverage with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Antonio Costa meeting with President Xi Jinping there on Thursday. Meanwhile, reports suggest Trump might meet Xi sometime in October or November, with the U.S. already having allowed the export of chips to China apparently in return for a resumption of rare earth shipments. Markets are assuming the worst will be avoided on tariffs, though analysts suspect the effective U.S. tariff rate could well be a bit above the 1930's levies that contributed so much to the Great Depression. Much of that optimism rests on earnings with the first of the mega caps reporting this week in the shape of Alphabet (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab and Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab. Results from Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) , opens new tab and General Dynamics (GD.N) , opens new tab should also confirm the windfall from a ramp up in global defence spending. The diary for the rest of Monday is virtually blank, but there's always Trump to watch. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - No major data or central bank speakers https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 03:11
SYDNEY, July 21 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said on Monday its sectoral factor model of core inflation was 2.8% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 2.9% in the prior quarter. The country's official statistics agency earlier in the day released figures that showed annual inflation came in at 2.7% in the second quarter, its highest in a year, leading markets to narrow the odds on a rate cut next month given weakness in the broader economy. Sign up here. Both measures are closely watched by the RBNZ, which has a monetary policy goal of keeping inflation within its target range of 1% to 3%. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/rbnz-q2-sectoral-factor-inflation-model-28-yy-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 03:00
MUMBAI, July 21 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is poised to retain its weakening bias on Monday, pressured by broad losses in regional peers, lacklustre foreign equity inflows and persistent dollar demand from local corporates. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated a flat-to-slightly-weaker open on Monday from 86.1475 in the previous session. The rupee has slipped near to 1% in the last two weeks and now hovers near its lowest level in almost a month. Sign up here. With the dollar/rupee pair "having clipped past 86, it looks like we’re in a slow push higher," said a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank. "Right now, I don’t see anything that could meaningfully turn the rupee around. The U.S.-India trade deal is one factor, though expectations of India making a relatively favourable one are fading.” Bankers said importers have been actively buying dollars for payments and short-term hedging, while foreign portfolio investor flows have remained muted. Offshore investors have pulled out more than $600 million from Indian equities so far this month, after pumping in nearly $4 billion during May and June. Market participants are keeping an eye on headlines around the U.S.-India trade deal, though most reckon it's unlikely to offer much support to the rupee. The pause in the dollar’s downtrend is adding to the pressure on the rupee. The dollar index climbed 0.6% last week, extending its nearly 1% rally from the previous week. The dollar index was hovering near 98.50 on Monday, while Asian currencies were mostly weaker. Market focus remains on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements ahead of the August 1 deadline. Other key events this week include the European Central Bank’s rate decision and China–European Union summit. "A wait-and-see approach remains the most probable course of action for the ECB next week. With the next potential tariff escalation not expected until August 1, there's little reason for a pre-emptive rate cut now," ING Bank said in a note. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.28; onshore one-month forward premium at 10.25 paisa ** Dollar index at 98.48 ** Brent crude futures at $69.3 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.42% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $333.4 million worth of Indian shares on July 17 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $38.7 million worth of Indian bonds on July 17 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-likely-remain-backfoot-asia-fx-dip-inflows-dwindle-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 00:51
HONG KONG, July 21 (Reuters) - China's Premier Li Qiang announced the start of construction on what will be the world's largest hydropower dam, located on the eastern rim of the Tibetan plateau and estimated to cost around $170 billion, the official Xinhua news agency said. The project is part of China's push to expand renewable energy and reduce carbon emissions. Sign up here. Consisting of five cascade hydropower stations, the dam will be located in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River and could affect millions downstream in India and Bangladesh. Li described the hydropower project as a "project of the century" and said special emphasis "must be placed on ecological conservation to prevent environmental damage", Xinhua said in its report on Saturday. Authorities have not indicated how many people the Tibet project would displace and how it would affect the local ecosystem, one of the richest and most diverse on the plateau. But according to Chinese officials, hydropower projects in Tibet will not have a major impact on the environment or on downstream water supplies. India and Bangladesh have nevertheless raised concerns about the dam. NGOs including the International Campaign for Tibet say the dam will irreversibly harm the Tibetan plateau and that millions of people downstream will face severe livelihood disruptions. The dam is estimated to have a capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually and is expected to help meet local energy demand in Tibet and the rest of China. The project will play a major role in meeting China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, stimulate related industries such as engineering, and create jobs in Tibet, Xinhua said in December when the project was first announced. A section of the Yarlung Zangbo falls a dramatic 2,000 metres (6,561 feet) within a short span of 50 km (31 miles), offering huge hydropower potential. The Yarlung Zangbo becomes the Brahmaputra river as it leaves Tibet and flows south into India's Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states and finally into Bangladesh. China has already started hydropower generation on the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo, which flows from the west to the east of Tibet. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/china-starts-construction-worlds-largest-hydropower-dam-tibet-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 00:45
MELBOURNE, July 21 (Reuters) - BHP Group (BHP.AX) , opens new tab has opted to sell its interest in the $2.5 billion Kabanga nickel project in Tanzania to its partner Lifezone Metals (LZM.N) , opens new tab for as much as $83 million, Lifezone said. The NYSE-listed company will acquire BHP's 17% equity interest in Kabanga Nickel Limited (KNL), the majority owner of the Kabanga Nickel Project in northwestern Tanzania, Lifezone said in a filing late on Friday. Sign up here. The company issued a report on Friday that put development costs for the project at $2.49 billion. It is expected to produce around 50,000 metric tons of nickel annually once fully ramped up, a process that will take six years including construction. A final investment decision on the project is due next year. BHP had agreed in 2022 to make an investment of as much as $100 million in the nickel mine and processing facilities if certain conditions were met. BHP did not respond immediately to a request for comment on why it had sold its stake in the project. The divestment comes as BHP has since shifted its view on nickel on the back of a boom in output from Indonesia in recent years. It put its Australian Nickel West operations on care and maintenance last year due to a poor outlook for nickel prices and a decision on the future of those operations is due by early 2027. As a result the transaction, Lifezone now owns 100% of KNL, which in turn holds an 84% interest in Tembo Nickel Corporation Limited (TNCL), the Tanzanian operating company for the Kabanga Nickel Project. The remaining 16% of TNCL is held by Tanzania's government. All existing agreements with BHP have been terminated and Lifezone has also assumed full control of 100% of the offtake from the Kabanga Nickel Project, it said. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/bhp-exits-25-billion-tanzania-nickel-project-partner-lifezone-says-2025-07-21/
2025-07-21 00:44
Asian stock markets : Nikkei futures, yen steady after Japan elections Wall St futures firm before earnings blitz Euro underpinned as ECB seen on hold SYDNEY, July 21 (Reuters) - Asian shares and the yen held their ground on Monday as Japanese elections proved bad for the government but no worse than already priced in, while Wall Street futures braced for earnings from the first of the tech giants. Investors were also hoping for some progress in trade talks ahead of President Donald Trump's August 1 tariff deadline, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick still confident a deal could be reached with the European Union. Sign up here. There were reports Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping were closer to arranging a meeting, though likely not until October at the earliest. In Japan, the ruling coalition lost control of the upper house in an election on Sunday, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's grip on power as a tariff deadline looms. Ishiba expressed his intention to stay in the position, which along with a market holiday, limited the reaction and the yen was 0.4% firmer at 148.29 to the dollar. "Ishiba will try to govern with support from some within the opposition, but this likely means a looser fiscal policy and is not good news for bond yields," said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB. "History also suggests that domestic political uncertainty tends to keep the BOJ on the side-lines, so the prospect of rate hikes is now set to be delayed for a little bit longer." The Bank of Japan still has a bias to raise rates further but markets are pricing little chance of a move until the end of October. While the Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab was shut, futures traded up at 39,875 and just above the cash close of 39,819. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab was flat, while South Korean stocks (.kS11) , opens new tab added 0.4%. MEGA CAPS KICK OFF S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both edged up 0.1%, and are already at record highs in anticipation of more solid earnings reports. A host of companies reporting this week include Alphabet (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab and Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab, along with IBM (IBM.N) , opens new tab. Investors also expect upbeat news for defence groups RTX (RTX.N) , opens new tab, Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) , opens new tab and General Dynamics (GD.N) , opens new tab. Ramped up government spending across the globe has seen the S&P 500 aerospace and defence sector rise 30% this year. In bond markets, U.S. Treasury futures held steady having dipped late last week after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller repeated his call for a rate cut this month. Most of his colleagues, including Chair Jerome Powell, have argued a pause is warranted to judge the true inflationary impact of tariffs and markets imply almost no chance of a move in July. A September cut is put at 61%, rising to 80% for October. Powell's reticence on rates has drawn the ire of Trump who threatened to fire the Fed chief, before backing down. The spectre of a potential political appointee who would seek to ease policy sharply has investors on edge. The European Central Bank meets this week and is expected to hold its rates steady at 2.0% following a string of cuts. "The press conference will likely keep highlighting uncertainty and need to wait for tariff negotiations to conclude before deciding the next step," said analysts at TD Securities in a note. "Similarly, its 'meeting-by-meeting' language would be retained in the release." The euro was unchanged at $1.1630 in early trading, having dipped 0.5% last week and away from its recent near-four-year top of $1.1830. The dollar index was a fraction lower at 98.40 . In commodity markets, gold was little changed at $3,348 an ounce with all the recent action in platinum which last week hit its highest since August 2014. Oil prices were caught between the prospect of increased supply from OPEC+ and the risk European Union sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine could curb its exports. Brent edged up 0.1% to $69.36 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 0.1% to $67.39 per barrel. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-07-21/
