2025-06-30 11:04

ICE raids on farms risk food supply chain disruption Farmworkers illegally in the US are in hiding Crops are unharvested and rotting OXNARD, California, June 30 (Reuters) - Lisa Tate is a sixth-generation farmer in Ventura County, California, an area that produces billions of dollars worth of fruit and vegetables each year, much of it hand-picked by immigrants in the U.S. illegally. Tate knows the farms around her well. And she says she can see with her own eyes how raids carried out by agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the area's fields earlier this month, part of President Donald Trump's migration crackdown, have frightened off workers. Sign up here. "In the fields, I would say 70% of the workers are gone," she said in an interview. "If 70% of your workforce doesn't show up, 70% of your crop doesn't get picked and can go bad in one day. Most Americans don't want to do this work. Most farmers here are barely breaking even. I fear this has created a tipping point where many will go bust." In the vast agricultural lands north of Los Angeles, stretching from Ventura County into the state's central valley, two farmers, two field supervisors and four immigrant farmworkers told Reuters this month that the ICE raids have led a majority of workers to stop showing up. That means crops are not being picked and fruit and vegetables are rotting at peak harvest time, they said. One Mexican farm supervisor, who asked not to be named, was overseeing a field being prepared for planting strawberries last week. Usually he would have 300 workers, he said. On this day he had just 80. Another supervisor at a different farm said he usually has 80 workers in a field, but today just 17. BAD FOR BUSINESS Most economists and politicians acknowledge that many of America's agricultural workers are in the country illegally, but say a sharp reduction in their numbers could have devastating impacts on the food supply chain and farm-belt economies. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a Republican and former director of the Congressional Budget Office, said an estimated 80% of farmworkers in the U.S. were foreign-born, with nearly half of them in the country illegally. Losing them will cause price hikes for consumers, he said. "This is bad for supply chains, bad for the agricultural industry," Holtz-Eakin said. Over a third of U.S. vegetables and over three-quarters of the country's fruits and nuts are grown in California, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture. The state's farms and ranches generated nearly $60 billion in agricultural sales in 2023. Of the four immigrant farmworkers Reuters spoke to, two are in the country illegally. These two spoke on the condition of anonymity, out of fear of being arrested by ICE. One, aged 54, has worked in U.S. agricultural fields for 30 years and has a wife and children in the country. He said most of his colleagues have stopped showing up for work. "If they show up to work, they don't know if they will ever see their family again," he said. The other worker in the country illegally told Reuters, "Basically, we wake up in the morning scared. We worry about the sun, the heat, and now a much bigger problem - many not returning home. I try not to get into trouble on the street. Now, whoever gets arrested for any reason gets deported." To be sure, some farmworker community groups said many workers were still returning to the fields, despite the raids, out of economic necessity. The days following a raid may see decreased attendance in the field, but the workers soon return because they have no other sources of income, five groups told Reuters. Workers are also taking other steps to reduce their exposure to immigration agents, like carpooling with people with legal status to work or sending U.S. citizen children to the grocery store, the groups said. ICE CHILL Trump conceded in a post on his Truth Social account this month that ICE raids on farm workers - and also hotel workers - were "taking very good, long-time workers away" from those sectors, "with those jobs being almost impossible to replace." Trump later told reporters, "Our farmers are being hurt badly. They have very good workers." He added, "They're not citizens, but they've turned out to be great." He pledged to issue an order to address the impact, but no policy change has yet been enacted. Trump has always stood up for farmers, said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly in response to a request for comment on the impact of the ICE raids to farms. "He will continue to strengthen our agricultural industry and boost exports while keeping his promise to enforce our immigration laws," she said. Bernard Yaros, Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, a nonpartisan global economics advisory firm, said in a report published on June 26 that native-born workers tend not to fill the void left by immigrant workers who have left. "Unauthorized immigrants tend to work in different occupations than those who are native-born," he said. ICE operations in California's farmland were scaring even those who are authorized, said Greg Tesch, who runs a farm in central California. "Nobody feels safe when they hear the word ICE, even the documented people. We know that the neighborhood is full of a combination of those with and without documents," Tesch said. "If things are ripe, such as our neighbors have bell peppers here, (if) they don't harvest within two or three days, the crop is sunburned or over mature," said Tesch. "We need the labor." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/immigration-raids-leave-crops-unharvested-california-farms-risk-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 10:45

ECB's new strategy addresses inflation deviations from 2% target ECB acknowledges structural shifts affecting inflation volatility Hawkish policymakers want to raise bar for future quantitative easing SINTRA, Portugal, June 30 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank pledged on Monday to react with equal vigour when inflation was too high as when it was too low, tweaking its overarching strategy after being blind-sided by a surge in prices in recent years. The ECB's new five-year strategy follows a rollercoaster period in which it went from worrying about deflation during the pandemic to a cost-of-living crisis exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and, most recently, disruptions from a simmering trade war. Sign up here. In its new strategy statement, the euro zone's central bank kept a pledge - fought over internally - to deploy "especially forceful or persistent monetary policy measures" but said it would do so when inflation strayed far from its 2% target in either direction. The ECB’s previous strategy statement, published in 2021 when inflation had just started rising, was mostly focused on the risk of price growth getting stuck at low levels, something now seen as a mistake by some central bankers. "To maintain the symmetry of the target, appropriately forceful or persistent monetary policy action in response to large, sustained deviations of inflation from the target in either direction is important," the ECB said. In the new document, the ECB also emphasised that the global economy was facing a number of "structural shifts" from geopolitical and economic fragmentation to demographics and climate change, that will make inflation more prone to large deviations from its target level. "The inflation environment will remain uncertain and potentially more volatile, with larger deviations from the symmetric 2% inflation target," it said. 'FORCEFUL' TUSSLE Some of the 25 policymakers on the ECB’s Governing Council had wanted to change the reference to "especially forceful" action - previously seen as a byword for massive bond purchases and ultra-low interest rates - and engage in greater soul-searching about the central bank’s ultra-easy policy of the last decade. But the new strategy statement was largely free of criticism of its previous policy stance, as sources had indicated it would be in comments to Reuters earlier this year. "All monetary policy tools currently available to the Governing Council will remain in its toolkit," the ECB said. "Their use at any time will continue to be subject to a comprehensive proportionality assessment." A growing number of policymakers from the ECB's hawkish camp – those who favour a tighter monetary policy stance - have signalled in recent weeks that the bar for more bond buying, or quantitative easing (QE) in economic parlance, would be higher in the future. In an interview with Reuters, the ECB’s vice-president Luis de Guindos said the euro zone’s central bank had now learned more about QE’s side effects. The programme has been blamed for a bubble in financial and property markets for causing massive losses at the ECB and its shareholding central banks once interest rates rose. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/ecb-react-forcefully-when-inflation-is-too-high-or-low-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 10:44

MUMBAI, June 30 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee slipped on Monday to end the month and quarter slightly lower, trailing most Asian peers amid muted portfolio inflows and weighed down by the country’s external investment deficit. The currency closed at 85.7550 against the U.S. dollar, down 0.3% on the day and posted modest losses of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively for the month and quarter, underperforming most Asian peers amid a broad dollar downtrend. Sign up here. While the Indian unit is little changed on the year so far, Asian peers such as the Taiwan dollar and Korean won have risen about nearly 13% and 8% year-to-date, respectively, while the offshore Chinese yuan, a closely tracked peer of the rupee, is up over 2%. India's external investment deficit is among the key reasons cited by analysts behind the rupee's underperformance. The external investment positions of Asian countries have come into focus as investors ramp up hedge against persistent weakness in the dollar, thereby boosting currencies of countries with sizeable investment surpluses, like Korea and Taiwan. The dollar index is down over 10% on the year so far, bogged down by worries over U.S. trade and fiscal policies, worries over the future independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of upcoming cuts to benchmark interest rates. Muted portfolio flows have also been a sore point for the rupee with foreign investors net pulling about $0.5 billion from local stocks and bonds over the April-June quarter. Despite the relative underperformance, analysts expect a broadly weaker dollar to support the rupee. "We see scope for USD/INR to consolidate in an 84-86 range with a downside bias," DBS said in a note, adding that it would consider lowering USD/INR’s forecast if the US Federal Reserve pivots towards a rate cut later this year and sets the stage for more USD weakness. On the day, traders said that dollar bids from foreign bank and state-run banks weighed on the rupee even as most of its Asian peers logged gains. (This story has been refiled to fix the dateline to June 30) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-ends-month-quarter-tad-lower-trails-most-asian-peers-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 10:37

PARIS, June 30 (Reuters) - A cryptocurrency investment fraud ring that investigators said laundered 460 million euros ($540 million) using a worldwide network of accomplices has been dismantled in Spain, European police body Europol said on Monday. Europol said Spanish police led the operation against the criminal network, and that law enforcement agencies from France, Estonia and the United States were also involved. Sign up here. Five people were arrested as a result of the operation, with three arrested on the Canary Islands and two in Madrid. Europol, headquartered in The Hague, said the network allegedly used associates around the world to raise funds through cash withdrawals, bank transfers and crypto-transfers. Investigators suspect the organisation of establishing a corporate and banking network based in Hong Kong, using payment gateways and user accounts in the names of different people and in different exchanges to receive, store and transfer criminal funds. The investigation continues, added Europol. ($1 = 0.8527 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/cryptocurrency-fraud-ring-busted-spain-after-laundering-540-million-europol-says-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 10:31

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today Investors are keeping a wary eye on the progress of President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful" U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill that is slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by Trump's preferred July 4 deadline. Meanwhile, over on Wall Street, futures on the S&P 500 suggest another record high might be in the offing later on. Sign up here. Mike Dolan is enjoying some well-deserved time off over the next two weeks, but the Reuters markets team is here to provide you with all the information you need to start your day. Today's Market Minute * Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting U.S. technology firms late on Sunday, just hours before it was due to take effect, in a bid to advance stalled trade negotiations with the United States. * The trade deal signed between U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowering some tariffs on imports from Britain has come into effect, the British government said on Monday. * A million-dollar question will hang over the world's top central bankers when they meet in Sintra, Portugal, from Monday evening: Is the monetary system centred on the U.S. currency beginning to unravel? * The war between Israel and Iran offered a real-time look at some new global cross-asset dynamics that can help investors understand the state of play in the first half of 2025 and what they can expect in the next six months. TPW Advisory founder Jay Pelosky details three key takeaways from the conflict. * Plus, ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso explains why Egypt was one of the biggest economic losers of the Middle East's 12-day war. The euro's big beautiful moment The euro is heading for a ninth straight day of gains versus the dollar, something it has only achieved three times since its inception in 1999. Another daily rise and we're in record territory. In 2025's "everyone hates the dollar" trading environment, the euro, and European assets in general, have to be real magnets for investor cash. The euro itself has gained nearly 14% against the dollar so far this year, while its performance against other currencies has been far less eye-popping. It has risen around 3.5% against both the pound and the Japanese yen and has barely broken even against the Swiss franc and Norwegian crown. Confidence in the United States as an investment destination - not just in markets, but for businesses too - has not vanished, but has taken a serious knock from the erratic and unpredictable policies of the Trump administration. This would not be obvious when looking through the lens of the stock market, given the S&P 500 is at record highs, in dollar terms at least. When priced in other currencies, it is a long way off. Europe's STOXX 600 has risen 7% so far this year, compared with the S&P's 5% rise. On an equal-weighted basis, the divergence is even more marked. Wall Street's Magnificent 7 are back in vogue, but not quite riding to the rescue. The equal-weighted S&P is up 3.3% versus a near-10% gain in the STOXX equivalent. That said, in spite of the chaos from Trump's on-again off-again tariffs, the heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East and the deficit-busting "One Big Beautiful Bill" that is up for debate in the Senate right now, investors aren't exactly ditching U.S. assets en masse. "Anywhere But The USA" may sound catchy as an investment theme, but it has taken more than that to lure capital into Europe. European governments, spearheaded by Germany, have pledged to unleash a one trillion euro ($1.17 trillion) spending bazooka, much of which will be concentrated on defence and infrastructure, as they attempt to address years of riding on the coattails of Washington for security, and of shortfalls in spending on basics at home. The July 9 deadline for a trade deal is less than two weeks away - and with Trump saying he will impose 50% tariffs on all EU goods without a deal - investors are moving their money. Data from LSEG's Lipper Funds show that more than $100 billion has flowed into European equity funds so far this year - up threefold from the same period last year - while outflows from the U.S. more than doubled to nearly $87 billion. "All that is an indication that at least market forces, investors, those who move real money around, actually see value and have confidence in Europe," European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said earlier this month. She said now is the time for Europe to take its destiny into its own hands, and that this is the euro's "moment". Chart of the day With the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Friday, the June employment report lands on Thursday. A Reuters poll shows economists expect to see a rise of 129,000, slightly below May's 139,000 increase. Evidence of the impact on the economy from Trump's tariffs and their potentially inflationary effect, along with the mass layoffs among government employees and the likelihood of big cuts to a raft of welfare benefits is starting to materialise in other data points. So far, the monthly non-farm payrolls report has not been one of them. May's number marked the fifth upside surprise in the past 12 months, and the ninth reading below the 200,000 mark over the past year. Layoffs are historically low, but hiring is not exactly booming. The most recent weekly jobless claims numbers showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell, but work opportunities are becoming scarce as businesses are reluctant to hire while things such as import tariffs are in flux. Today's events to watch * Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal * Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy in London * Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Aspen Ideas Festival 2025 * June Chicago PMI * Three- and six-month Treasury bill auctions Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. ($1 = 0.8533 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 08:32

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - Hedge funds sold energy stocks last week at the fastest pace since September 2024 and at the second-quickest clip in the last 10 years, as oil prices fell on easing Middle East tensions, a Goldman Sachs (GS.N) , opens new tab note seen by Reuters on Monday showed. Crude prices tumbled over $10 last week following a cease-fire between Israel and Iran. Oil prices wobbled on Friday on reports of increased supply from oil producing group OPEC+ and remain well below the recent peak of around $81. Sign up here. Hedge funds, starting June 23, sold the stocks of energy-related companies across every major region, the Goldman note said. Last week's selling in the sector was the biggest in almost a year and the second largest in the last decade, said the Goldman note, sent to clients on Friday. Shares of oil, gas and consumable oil companies as well as energy equipment and services firms were sold. Hedge fund selling focused on every region but primarily on North America and Europe, said the note. In Europe, hedge funds added short positions and fled long bets, said Goldman. A short position expects asset prices to fall, while a long position expects it to rise. While many increased short bets against energy companies, speculators' total combined positions remained proportionately long on global energy stocks, data from the note showed. Hedge fund gross leverage, a gauge of how many positions hedge funds have on, remains at a five-year high, said Goldman Sachs. Last week saw the largest stock buying in five weeks, the note added, with hedge funds buying company shares in every global region, the bank said. Stock sectors most bought included financial, tech and industrial companies, it said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/hedge-flow-hedge-funds-sell-energy-stocks-oil-slumps-says-goldman-sachs-2025-06-30/