2025-06-30 01:31

MUMBAI, June 30 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee and government bonds are likely to react to shifts in market expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week, with traders also keeping an eye on portfolio inflows into local equity and debt markets. The rupee closed at 85.4750 on Friday, rising 1.3% for the week, its best performance in more than two years, helped by a sharp pullback in crude oil prices and broad weakness in the dollar. Sign up here. Data released on Friday showed the U.S. consumer spending declined unexpectedly in May, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index gained 0.1%, matching the rise in the previous month. The dollar index ended the week down by 1.5%. Following the data, traders added to bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, most likely starting from September. In the near term, traders expect the rupee to hover between 85 and 85.80 with a slightly positive bias. Developments on U.S. trade negotiations will also be in focus this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday said the Trump administration's various trade deals with other countries could be done by September 1 Labor Day holiday, citing 18 main U.S. trading partners. Meanwhile, a closely watched U.S. labor market report due on Thursday this week, will influence the market on the Fed's rate-cut expectations. "If the jobs data is weak... and we get numerous trade deals signed that help lift optimism over global growth, we would likely see the dollar selling extended further," MUFG said in a note. Meanwhile, India's 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond yield ended at 6.3134% on Friday. Traders expect it to move in a range of 6.28% to 6.35% this week. Foreign inflows trickled into government bonds over the last few days, but the major focus is on the sustenance of those flows, especially at a time when rate cut bets in the U.S. are rising. Apart from flows, bond market participants will focus on debt supply and liquidity management from the RBI, some of the key triggers for the week. Bond market investors are anticipating a tweak in supply pattern, with a reduction in ultra-long 30- to 50-year bonds, and an increase in up to seven-year papers. The RBI conducted its first reverse repo in seven months on Friday and banks parked 850 billion rupees ($9.95 billion) at the seven-day VRRR. Traders would wait to see follow-up action from the central bank, and whether the RBI shifts to overnight or shorter-duration reverse repos. "We see the use of VRRR as a trend shift, with likely use of the liquidity management tool to gradually align weighted average call rate towards the repo rate," said Kanika Pasricha, chief economic adviser, Union Bank of India. KEY EVENTS: India ** May fiscal deficit - June 30, Monday (3:30 p.m. IST) ** May industrial output - June 30, Monday (4:00 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll - 2.4%) ** June HSBC manufacturing PMI - July 1, Tuesday (10:30 a.m.) ** June HSBC services PMI - July 3, Thursday (10:30 a.m.) U.S. ** June S&P Global manufacturing PMI final - July 1, Tuesday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** June ISM manufacturing PMI - July 1, Tuesday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** June non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate - July 3, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** May international trade - July 3, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** Initial weekly jobless claims for week to June 23 - July 3, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** June S&P Global composite PMI final - July 3, Thursday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** June S&P Global services PMI final - July 3, Thursday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** May factory orders - July 3, Thursday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** June ISM non-manufacturing PMI - July 3, Thursday (7:30 p.m. IST) ($1 = 85.4400 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-rupee-bonds-gauge-fed-rate-cut-wagers-portfolio-flows-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 00:55

June 30 (Reuters) - China's biggest gold and copper producer Zijin Mining (601899.SS) , opens new tab said on Monday it had agreed to buy one of the largest gold mines of Kazakhstan, the Raygorodok Gold Mine, for $1.2 billion. Zijin said its unit Zijin Gold International and Jinha Mining, a subsidiary of Zijin Gold, had inked a deal to acquire the rights of RG Gold LLP and RG Processing LLP, the Kazakhstan-based gold mining firms that currently own and operate the Raygorodok gold mine. Sign up here. The gold mine comprises the mine assets held by RGG and the processing plant assets held by RGP, Zijin said in a statement. The timing of the deal aligns with a surge in global gold prices amid ongoing uncertainty around U.S.-China trade tensions. Earlier in April, Zijin laid out its intention to spin off its unit, Zijin Gold International, and list it in Hong Kong as part of a reorganization of its overseas gold assets. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-zijin-mining-forks-out-12-billion-gold-mine-kazakhstan-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 00:41

Brent up 6% in June, US crude gains 7% Oil supply risk premium shrinking, says analyst OPEC+ plans could smother any upside in prices, says analyst HOUSTON, June 30 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged down on Monday as investors weighed easing Middle East risks and a possible OPEC+ output increase in August. Both Brent and U.S. crude oil benchmarks posted their biggest weekly declines since March 2023 last week but rose for the second consecutive month, gaining around 6% and 7% respectively. Sign up here. Brent futures settled down 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.61 a barrel and expired on Monday. The more active September contract ended at $66.74. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 41 cents, or 0.6%, at $65.11 a barrel. A 12-day war that started with Israel targeting Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13 sent prices above $80 a barrel before sliding back to $67. "This ceasefire that was quickly engineered appears to be holding up, so the supply risk premium that was in place is continuing to be withdrawn in a rapid fashion," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production hit a record 13.47 million barrels per day in April, up from 13.45 million bpd in March, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration as part of its Petroleum Supply Monthly series. The record U.S. oil production was adding to the bearish sentiment on Monday, Kilduff added. OPEC+ SET TO BOOST PRODUCTION IN AUGUST Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week that the group was set to boost production by 411,000 bpd in August after similar increases for May, June and July. If the increase is agreed, it would bring the total rise in supply from OPEC+ to 1.78 million bpd so far this year, equivalent to over 1.5% of total global demand. "I believe this potential supply pressure remains under-priced, leaving crude vulnerable to further weakness," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. The oil producer group is set to meet again on July 6. Some market tightness remains despite rising output, however, said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. A Reuters survey found that OPEC oil output rose in May, but gains were limited by cuts by countries that had previously exceeded their quotas. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, made smaller increases than allowed. Kazakhstan, which has persistently exceeded quotas set by OPEC+, may exceed its previous oil production forecast by around 2% this year following an upgrade to output at its largest Caspian oilfields, Reuters calculations, based on data from state-owned energy company KazMunayGaz (KMGZ.KZ) , opens new tab, showed. A survey of 40 economists and analysts in June forecast Brent crude will average $67.86 per barrel in 2025, up from May's $66.98 forecast, while U.S. crude is seen at $64.51, above last month's $63.35 estimate. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-prospect-more-opec-supply-easing-risks-mideast-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 00:32

Canada rescinds tax to keep US trade talks going Dollar stays soft ahead of payrolls test US tax and spending bill crawls through Senate NEW YORK, June 30 (Reuters) - Global stocks hit an intraday record on Monday on hopes U.S. trade negotiations with key partners would continue to progress, while the dollar declined and was set for its worst first-half performance in more than five decades. Canada halted its digital services tax targeting U.S. technology firms just hours before it was due to take effect, in an effort to advance stalled trade negotiations with Washington. Sign up here. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump will resume trade negotiations in an attempt to agree on a deal by July 21, in an extension from Trump's original July 9 deadline for "reciprocal" tariffs. The July 9 deadline still holds for other countries, although officials have suggested most deals could be done by the September 1 Labor Day holiday. On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advised that the U.S. could move back to the tariff levels on April 2, when Trump announced a wide array of steep duties against countries around the globe, and that the decision for any extension to negotiations would be up to Trump. On Wall Street, U.S. stocks rose modestly with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record levels for a second straight session, led by a gain of about 1% in technology (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab, while consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) , opens new tab was the worst performing of the 11 major S&P sectors. "Animal spirits seem to have taken hold here," said Roy Behren, co-president of Westchester Capital Management in New York. "It is also quite common for the last couple of days of a quarter to see strength because of the window dressing." The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 275.50 points, or 0.63%, to 44,094.77, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 31.88 points, or 0.52%, to 6,204.95 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab rose 96.28 points, or 0.48%, to 20,369.73. Investors will eye a flurry of labor market data in the holiday-shortened trading week, culminating in Thursday's government payrolls report. The report is scheduled for release a day early, while the U.S. stock market will have a shortened session on Thursday and be closed on Friday due to the Independence Day holiday on July 4. Some Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have said the strength of the labor market gives the central bank the leeway to hold off on cutting interest rates until they can get a better sense of the impact Trump's tariffs will have on inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said Monday that the economy has yet to face the full impact of Trump’s trade tariffs and said he still sees one cut from the Fed this year, while Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said he sees no sign of stagflation but there is the possibility of both unemployment and inflation getting worse simultaneously. Investors were also monitoring the progress of a huge U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, which Republicans will try to pass on Monday. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the nation's debt over a decade, testing foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab gained 3.88 points, or 0.42%, to 918.67 and was on track for its third straight session of gains after hitting an intraday record of 919.47. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index closed down 0.42%, but secured its second straight quarterly advance despite dropping more than 1% in June. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.41% to 96.80, with the euro up 0.55% at $1.1783. The greenback has struggled throughout the year, partly due to growing expectations the Fed may become more aggressive in cutting interest rates next year when Powell is replaced as Chair. The dollar is down 10.5% for the first half, which would mark its biggest drop over the first six months of the year since 1973, when the U.S. shifted to a free-floating exchange rate. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.47% to 143.97 while sterling edged up 0.08% to $1.3725. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 4.9 basis points to 4.234%. U.S. crude settled down 0.63% to $65.11 a barrel and Brent settled at $67.61 per barrel, down 0.24% on the day. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-06-30/

2025-06-29 23:06

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - Confidence levels among British employers hit a fresh nine-year high this month as companies became more optimistic about the outlook for the economy, according to a survey published on Monday. The Lloyds Bank Business Barometer rose by one point to 51%, the highest since November 2015, adding to an 11-point jump in May following a tumble in April when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a big jump in import tariffs, many of which have since been suspended. Sign up here. The survey's measure of economic optimism touched a 10-month high, rising by a point after a 16-point increase in May. Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said a rise in hiring intentions - with 60% of firms expecting higher staffing levels in the coming year - suggested employers were starting to prepare for future growth. The Bank of England is watching Britain's jobs market closely as it tries to gauge how much inflation pressure remains in the economy. Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that he saw signs of a slowdown in the labour market, due in part to the government's tax increase for employers, which began in April. But the Lloyds survey showed wage growth expectations rose for a second month in a row, with 36% of respondents forecasting average pay increases of 3% or more. Separate figures published by jobs website Adzuna showed UK staff vacancies edged down in May from April but rose by 0.5% compared with May last year, the third such increase in a row after more than a year of falls. "May reinforced the sense that the job market in the UK is gradually regaining its footing," said Andrew Hunter, co-founder of Adzuna. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said its gauge of expectations among businesses about the economy over the next three months were less negative than in May but remained weak after the tax increase on employers and geopolitical upheaval. "Companies are still grappling with higher employment costs, cautious spending behaviour on the part of households and increasing global uncertainty," said Alpesh Paleja, the CBI's deputy chief economist. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-business-confidence-levels-hit-highest-since-2015-lloyds-says-2025-06-29/

2025-06-29 21:54

WARSAW, June 29 (Reuters) - Polish power grid operator PSE will on Monday sign a deal to get a loan exceeding 10.8 billion zloty ($2.99 billion) from state-owned bank BGK to build new power transmission lines, the government press office said. PSE had said in January its transmission network development plan for 2025-2034 assumes investment of over 64 billion zloty. Sign up here. A fund set up by BGK and the Polish climate ministry in 2024 has earmarked 70 billion zloty from the European Union recovery funds to build and upgrade the country's power transmission network. ($1 = 3.6117 zlotys) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/polish-power-grid-get-3-billion-loan-build-transmission-lines-2025-06-29/