2025-06-27 16:35

Monthly US jobs report due on Thursday in holiday-shortened week S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite reach record highs on Friday Deadline for fiscal bill also in focus Bets rising on Fed rate cuts over next year NEW YORK, June 27 (Reuters) - Investors who have been captivated by recent geopolitical events are poised to shift their attention in the coming week to key economic data and policy developments to see if the torrid rally in U.S. stocks extends higher. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab and Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab both tallied record highs on Friday for the first time in months, helped by optimism about interest-rate cuts and trade deals. Easing tensions in the Middle East also paved the way for the latest bump higher in stocks, as a conflict between Israel and Iran appeared to calm after missile strikes between the two nations had set the world on edge. Sign up here. Focus will shift to Washington in the coming week. President Donald Trump wants his fellow Republicans to pass a sweeping tax-cut and spending bill by July 4. Investors also get a crucial view into the U.S. economy with the monthly employment report due on Thursday. U.S. stock markets are closed on Friday, July 4, for the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Citigroup's U.S. economic surprise index (.CESIUSD) , opens new tab has been weakening, indicating that data has been missing Wall Street expectations, said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. "After some softer May data, the June data is really going to be under a microscope," Miskin said. "If the data deteriorates more, it may get the market's attention." U.S. employment is expected to have climbed by 110,000 jobs in June, according to a Reuters poll -- a slowdown from May's 139,000 increase. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell in the prior week, but the unemployment rate could rise in June as more laid-off people struggle to find work. "The labor market right now is front and center over the next few weeks," said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. Employment data could factor into expectations for when the Federal Reserve will next cut interest rates, with investors also watching to see if inflation is calming enough to allow for lower rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been wary that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation, a view he told the U.S. Congress this week. Some Fed officials have talked about a stronger case for cuts. Trading of fed funds futures in the past week indicated ramped-up bets for more easing this year. The level of tariffs could come into sharper view with a July 9 deadline for higher levies on a broad set of countries. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday said trade deals with other countries could be done by the Sept. 1 Labor Day holiday, citing 18 main U.S. trading partners. Stocks have rebounded sharply since plunging in April following Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, as the president pulled back on some of the most severe tariffs. This eased fears about a recession, but markets could remain sensitive to trade developments. Investors also will focus on the U.S. fiscal bill in Congress for indication of the extent of stimulus in the legislation and how much it could widen federal deficits. With a roller-coaster first half nearly complete, the S&P 500 is up about 5% so far in 2025. Over the past 15 years, July has been a strong month for stocks, with the S&P 500 increasing 2.9% in July on average, Wedbush analysts noted in a report this week. Second-quarter U.S. corporate earnings season kicks off in the coming weeks, with concerns over how much tariffs may be biting into company profits or affecting consumer spending. S&P 500 earnings are expected to have climbed 5.9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES data. "We've been in a geopolitically focused market over the past several weeks," said Josh Jamner, senior investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. "I think the dawn of earnings season ... will refocus the market back towards fundamentals." https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-jobs-data-trade-fiscal-policies-focus-with-sp-500-cusp-record-2025-06-27/

2025-06-27 15:47

LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - A United Arab Emirates-based fund has bought $100 million worth of digital tokens issued by World Liberty Financial, the crypto venture of U.S. President Donald Trump's family, becoming its largest publicly known investor. Aqua 1 Foundation said in a statement on Thursday its purchase of the tokens, known as $WLFI, sought to speed up the creation of a "blockchain-powered financial ecosystem" with stablecoins and tokenised traditional assets at its heart. Sign up here. A spokesperson for World Liberty confirmed the investment to Reuters. A so-called governance token, $WLFI cannot be traded but gives holders the right to vote on changes to the business' underlying code. World Liberty said this week it was "working behind the scenes" to make the token transferable. "WLFI and Aqua 1 will jointly identify and nurture high-potential blockchain projects together," Aqua 1 founding partner Dave Lee said in the statement. The fund's investment and compliance teams would help World Liberty expand in South America, Europe and Asia, it added. Despite its investment, Aqua 1 maintains a minimal online presence. Its X account has only three posts and approximately 1,120 followers while its website was created on May 28, according to data from two web domain trackers. World Liberty also plans to support the launch of a separate Aqua 1 fund aimed at boosting the "digital economy transformation" in the Middle East through blockchain and artificial intelligence, the statement said. Aqua 1 did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and the World Liberty spokesperson had no further immediate comment. Launched two months before the 2024 U.S. presidential election by Trump and his business partners, World Liberty has yielded hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for the Republican president's family business. World Liberty has drawn criticism from Democratic lawmakers and government ethics watchdogs over potential conflicts of interest. The Trump Organization has said the president's investments, assets and business interests are held in a trust managed by his children. World Liberty aims to open access to financial services via digital tokens, without intermediaries such as banks. It has launched a stablecoin called USD1 that was bolstered in May when an Abu Dhabi investment firm chose it for a $2 billion investment in giant crypto exchange Binance. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/uae-fund-buys-100-million-trumps-world-liberty-tokens-2025-06-27/

2025-06-27 15:19

June 27 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank is not currently discussing potential interest rate cuts, director Diogo Guillen said on Friday, reaffirming that policymakers remain focused on bringing inflation back to target over the relevant horizon. "That seems like a very distant debate," he said at an event hosted by Barclays in Sao Paulo, adding it would be "far too premature" to talk about what might lead the bank to ease borrowing costs. Sign up here. Earlier this month, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 15%, a near two-decade high, and signaled it expects to hold it steady for a "very prolonged" period. Guillen said the pause was announced to assess whether the cumulative 450-basis-point increase since September had been enough. "As the cycle evolves, you reach a more contractionary interest rate level, which also allows more time to observe the lagged effects (of monetary policy)," he added. Guillen also emphasized that the central bank is targeting the midpoint of the inflation goal, set at 3%, and aims to reach it within the relevant monetary policy horizon, which currently extends to the fourth quarter of 2026. Brazil's economy has "undoubtedly" shown resilience, but there are signs of a slowdown in growth, he added. Guillen said that the debate over the reasons behind recent economic strength involves several hypotheses involving stronger consumption, credit expansion, labor market dynamics and the effects of social benefits. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-central-bank-sees-rate-cut-debate-premature-says-official-2025-06-27/

2025-06-27 14:44

June 27 (Reuters) - UBS Global Wealth Management raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index (.SPX) , opens new tab to 6,200 from its prior forecast of 6,000, banking on softening trade tensions and expectations of resilient quarterly earnings. UBS's current target implies about a 1% upside to the benchmark index's last close of 6,141.02. M ajor brokerages Citigroup and Barclays also lifted their targets for the index earlier this month . Sign up here. U.S. equities have been on a recovery rally as easing trade tensions boosted investor risk appetite, following a tariff-led sell-off spree in March and April. "We think the recovery makes sense, considering that most large-cap companies should weather the tariffs reasonably well," UBS said in a note late Thursday. The wealth management unit of European bank UBS (UBSG.S) , opens new tab has maintained its 'neutral' stance on U.S. equities. President Donald Trump's administration in April imposed reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners, which rattled global financial markets, but has since then reduced some of the tariff rates on certain countries, including China. "The good news is that growth and inflation should start to improve later this year once the economy adjusts to the one-time impact of the tariffs," said UBS. UBS also raised the index's annual earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate to $265 from its previous projection of $260. "We are expecting another resilient (Q2) earnings season and the budget reconciliation bill could also boost corporate cash flows which could be used for additional share repurchases or investment spending," the wealth management unit said. UBS also raised its 2026 mid-year index target to 6,500 from a prior view of 6,400, while also lifting the EPS forecast to $285 from $280. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ubs-lifts-sp-500-indexs-annual-target-fading-trade-tensions-2025-06-27/

2025-06-27 13:34

June 27 (Reuters) - The goal of ending extreme poverty around the globe remains elusive partly due to compounding challenges faced by economies in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) including food insecurity and weak government capacity, a report from the World Bank showed. The report released on Friday by the Washington-based lender calls on a scaling up of international support, debt relief and technical assistance at a time when the United States, the world's largest aid donor of the past decades, steps back. Sign up here. Extreme poverty is rising fast in economies hit by conflict and instability, according to the World Bank's first comprehensive report , opens new tab on FCS economies since the COVID-19 pandemic. Over 420 million people in conflict-ridden economies survive on less than $3 a day, more than the rest of the world combined, even as they are home to under 15% of the global population. The number is projected to rise to 435 million, or nearly 60% of the world’s extreme poor, by 2030. "FCS economies have become the epicenter of global poverty and food insecurity, a situation increasingly shaped by the frequency and intensity of conflict," the World Bank report said. Economic output in FCS nations could stall or weaken further as conflict and violence have surged and intensified over the past years. The most high-intensity conflicts can shrink per capita GDP by some 20% after five years, according to the report. Conflict and war economies are home to 1 billion people and their populations average only six years of schooling, with life expectancy seven years shorter than in other developing countries. Since 2020, the per capita GDP in these economies has shrunk by an average of 1.8% per year, while it has expanded by 2.9% in other developing economies, the report said. “Progress on poverty reduction has stalled since the mid-2010s, reflecting the compounded effects of intensifying conflict, economic fragility, and subdued growth,” it said. Targeted domestic reforms and coordinated, long-term global engagement are needed to lift those populations out of poverty, according to the World Bank. Measures need to focus on addressing root causes of conflict such as injustice and exclusion, as well as expanding access to education and healthcare, and improving infrastructure. Investment in tourism and agriculture could help create jobs for a growing working-age population. "With sound policies and sustained global engagement, FCS economies can chart a better path toward development," said the World Bank. https://www.reuters.com/world/world-bank-urges-aid-economies-conflict-us-pushes-cuts-2025-06-27/

2025-06-27 12:47

April GDP contracts by 0.1%, likely similar drop in May Decline led by 1.9% contraction in manufacturing Wholesale trade sector also contracted by 1.9% Finance & insurance, public administration sectors grow OTTAWA, June 27 (Reuters) - Canada's economy contracted in April on a monthly basis, data showed on Friday, as sectors exposed to tariffs and uncertainty negated a boost from services. Gross domestic product contracted by 0.1% month on month in April, Statistics Canada said, led by a 0.6% decline in goods-producing industries which contribute 25% to GDP. Sign up here. While there was growth in finance and public administration, this was offset by a drop in sales in manufacturing and wholesale trade among others, Statscan said. Analysts polled by Reuters had estimated GDP to be flat in April. The statistics agency revised the March growth figure to 0.2% from 0.1% reported previously. An advanced estimate from Statscan showed that GDP for May is likely to contract again by 0.1%. A back-to-back contraction in May, if confirmed, will not bode well for second-quarter GDP, which many economists have warned will reveal the full impact of tariffs on Canada imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. The Bank of Canada has also warned that growth in the second quarter will be substantially weaker. Surveys have shown that business investment has already been sluggish, job hiring has been muted, layoffs are picking up and there are signs that consumption is declining. Manufacturing is heavily exposed to U.S. tariffs and contributes up to a tenth of GDP. The sector's output contracted by 1.9% in April, its biggest decline since four years ago, when the pandemic was ravaging output and exports. The transportation equipment manufacturing sub sector dropped by 3.7% and was the largest contributor to the decline, Statscan said. The wholesale trade sector contracted 1.9% in April, recording the largest monthly decline since June 2023, and was largely led by a hefty fall in motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories wholesaler-distributors. The real estate and construction sectors continued their muted growth, each expanding by 0.1%. Real estate and rental and leasing account for the biggest contribution to GDP at 13%. Economists had said that if growth in April was substantially weaker, and the next inflation data release is weak, it could boost the chances of an rate cut in July. "Our tracking for Q2 GDP now more clearly points to a slight contraction," Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins, wrote in a note. "We continue to believe the Bank of Canada will reduce rates next month, with the stickiness in core inflation measures due mostly to unusual volatility in the April reading," he said. The central bank will have the benefit of another set of jobs and inflation data next month before its rates decision. Money markets are betting that the odds of a rate cut at the central bank's July 30 meeting are at 37.25%. The Canadian dollar pared some of its losses after the data and was trading down 0.06% at 1.3648 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.27 U.S. cents. Yields on two-year government bonds were up 0.6 basis points to 2.638%. Among the sectors that added to growth was finance and insurance, which expanded by 0.7%, its largest monthly increase since August last year. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-gdp-contracts-april-likely-another-decline-may-2025-06-27/