2025-06-27 03:07

Mumbai, June 27 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is set to climb further on Friday, supported by weak U.S. data that has strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, and possibly earlier. The one-month non-deliverable forward indicated an open in the 85.58-85.62 range, versus 85.7050 in the previous session. The rupee has already risen 1% through Thursday and is on track for its best weekly showing in several weeks, driven largely by a plunge in oil prices after the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Sign up here. The currency finally broke past the 86 handle on Thursday - a level it had been struggling to crack in prior sessions. The break probably "unlocks the next leg lower" for USD/INR pair, a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. "Interbank positioning isn’t a hurdle. Price action over the next few sessions will tell us if this has turned into a sell-on-rallies market," the trader said. U.S. DATA SUPPORTS FED RATE CUTS U.S. first-quarter GDP contracted a bit faster than previously thought. The downward revision was led by consumption, which was trimmed by 0.7 percentage points to a 0.5% pace entirely because of softer services spending, Morgan Stanley said in a note. "Our economists note the tone of 1Q25 data changed and now suggests a household sector that was retrenching at the start of the year," it said Meanwhile, U.S. initial jobless claims declined in the week through June 21. However, the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased to its highest level since November 2021. The 10-year U.S. yield fell to its lowest in nearly two months on Thursday, amid markets pricing in more Fed rate cuts than what the June dot plot had suggested. The dollar index remains pinned near multi-year lows, reflecting the rate expectations. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.70; onshore one-month forward premium at 12 paise ** Dollar index down at 97.3 ** Brent crude futures up 0.6% at $68.2 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.26% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $99.5mln worth of Indian shares on Jun. 25 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $39.8mln worth of Indian bonds on Jun. 25 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/fed-rate-cut-bets-help-rupee-extend-weekly-rally-2025-06-27/

2025-06-27 02:16

WASHINGTON, June 26 (Reuters) - The U.S. will not complete scheduled deliveries of crude oil into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve until the end of the year due to maintenance, as much as seven months behind schedule, the Department of Energy said on Thursday. Former President Joe Biden's administration scheduled 15.8 million barrels of deliveries to the SPR from January through May. So far this year only 8.8 million of that has been delivered to the reserve. Sign up here. "Due to site maintenance, the SPR rescheduled crude oil secured from previous solicitations, as well as exchanges, through December 2025," an Energy Department spokesperson told Reuters. Biden carried out several sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve including 180 million barrels in 2022, the largest ever, in an attempt to control spiking gasoline prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. President Donald Trump vowed on his first day in office in January to fill the SPR "right to the top", in an effort to support the domestic oil industry, but it is taking time. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has estimated it would take $20 billion and years to refill the reserve to the level it was before the sales. Trump's tax-and-spending bill allocates about $1.5 billion for purchases and SPR maintenance. Wright has also blasted Biden's large sale from the reserve, saying it caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damages. When asked for a breakdown of those damages, his department said the 180 million barrel sale resulted in $2 million in emergency repairs, $35 million in costs to move the oil and $243 million in costs from delays to congressionally-directed maintenance. The Biden administration said in November it had bought back 59 million barrels for the SPR after the 2022 sale at an average price of less than $76 a barrel, far lower than the $95 a barrel at which it sold oil in 2022. That resulted in a profit of about $3.5 billion, Biden's DOE said at the time. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-will-not-complete-oil-deliveries-into-its-reserve-until-year-end-2025-06-27/

2025-06-27 00:22

June 26 (Reuters) - Recent U.S. inflation data has been "quite positive" but some of the inflationary effect of tariffs may just be delayed, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday. "We've been basically saying, Hey, we need to go slow until we have more clarity on what's happening with tariff-related inflation,'" Kashkari said, of how the Fed is looking at interest rate decisions. Sign up here. Businesses are going to pass on as much of the higher costs from tariffs as they can, he told the Montana Chamber of Commerce in Helena, Montana. "We've also heard a lot of businesses saying, Hey, we don't want to pass on cost increases yet because if the tariffs come back down to something more normal, why would we want to anger our customers if it's going to be a temporary thing?" Kashkari said. It's also remarkable, he said, how products often "find their way around and through barriers," a suggestion that he is watching to see if businesses find ways to avoid the biggest tariffs, which could limit the total impact on inflation. At the moment there's a lot of uncertainty and trade negotiations are under way, he said. "We still need to get a better assessment of what impact tariffs are going to have on the economy," he said. "We just don't know yet." https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-kashkari-says-more-clarity-needed-tariffs-impact-inflation-2025-06-27/

2025-06-27 00:18

June 26 (Reuters) - Options markets suggest the probability of a disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is just 4% following the Iran-Israel ceasefire, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on Thursday. Fears that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities sent Brent crude futures to a high of $81.40 on Monday, but concerns eased in the wake of the truce declared the next day, sending crude back below $68. Sign up here. The sharp drop in the geopolitical risk premium likely reflected traders' recent experiences with major geopolitical shocks without significant oil disruptions, Iran's restrained response, strong U.S. and China incentives to avoid large disruptions, and the likely shift to large inventory builds from the fall, Goldman analysts said. Options markets see a 60% chance that Brent will stay in the $60s in three months and a 28% probability they would exceed $70, Goldman analysts said. Were oil flows to be disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, Brent would climb to $90 a barrel, they said. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/oil-market-reflects-slim-chance-supply-disruption-goldman-analysts-say-2025-06-27/

2025-06-26 23:29

China had committed to removing non-tariff countermeasures in May talks China's dual-use restrictions slow rare earth licensing process Trump says there might be a separate deal with India WASHINGTON, June 26 (Reuters) - The United States has reached an agreement with China on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the U.S., a White House official said on Thursday, amid efforts to end a trade war between the world's biggest economies. President Donald Trump earlier said the United States had signed a deal with China on Wednesday, without providing additional details, and that there might be a separate deal coming up that would "open up" India. Sign up here. During U.S.-China trade talks in May in Geneva, Beijing committed to removing non-tariff countermeasures imposed against the United States since April 2, although it was unclear how some of those measures would be walked back. As part of its retaliation against new U.S. tariffs, China suspended exports of a wide range of critical minerals and magnets, upending the supply chains central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors around the world. "The administration and China agreed to an additional understanding for a framework to implement the Geneva agreement," a White House official said on Thursday. The understanding is "about how we can implement expediting rare earths shipments to the U.S. again", the official said. A separate administration official said the U.S.-China agreement took place earlier this week. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was quoted as saying by Bloomberg: "They're going to deliver rare earths to us" and once they do that "we'll take down our countermeasures." On Friday, China's commerce ministry said the two countries recently confirmed details on the framework of implementing the Geneva trade talks consensus. It said China will approve export applications of controlled items in accordance with the law. It did not mention rare earths. While the agreement shows potential progress following months of trade uncertainty and disruption since Trump took office in January, it also underscores the long road ahead to a final, definitive trade deal between the two economic rivals. China has been taking its dual-use restrictions on rare earths "very seriously" and has been vetting buyers to ensure that materials are not diverted to U.S. military uses, according to an industry source. This has slowed down the licensing process. The Geneva deal had faltered over China's curbs on critical minerals exports, prompting the Trump administration to respond with export controls of its own preventing shipments of semiconductor design software, aircraft and other goods to China. In early June, Reuters reported China had granted temporary export licenses to rare-earth suppliers of the top three U.S. automakers, according to two sources familiar with the matter, as supply chain disruptions began to surface from export curbs on those materials. Later in the month, Trump said there was a deal with China in which Beijing would supply magnets and rare earth minerals while the U.S. would allow Chinese students in its colleges and universities. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-says-deal-related-trade-was-signed-with-china-wednesday-2025-06-26/

2025-06-26 22:37

Peace deal expected to be signed in Washington on Friday Sources say agreement aims to secure Rwanda's gradual withdrawal US seeks end to conflict, access to critical minerals June 26 (Reuters) - Congolese negotiators have dropped a demand that Rwandan troops immediately leave eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, paving the way for a U.S.-brokered peace agreement to be signed between the longtime foes on Friday, four sources told Reuters. Rwanda has sent at least 7,000 soldiers over the border, according to analysts and diplomats, in support of the M23 rebels, who seized eastern Congo's two largest cities and lucrative mining areas in a lightning advance earlier this year. Sign up here. Rwanda has long denied providing arms and troops to M23 and says it is acting in self-defence. Congolese and Rwandan officials are expected to sign a peace deal in Washington on Friday following a diplomatic push by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to end years of conflict with roots in Rwanda's 1994 genocide. The agreement also aims to attract Western investment to the two countries' mining sectors, which boast deposits of tantalum, gold, cobalt, copper and lithium, while giving the U.S. access to critical minerals. Sources told Reuters earlier this month that Washington was pushing for Rwanda to withdraw its troops before the deal's signing, a pre-condition that was also included in a U.S.-prepared draft authenticated by diplomats. But that timeline was certain to face resistance from Rwanda. Kigali considers Congo-based armed groups an existential threat, particularly the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), which includes remnants of Rwanda's former army and militias that carried out the genocide. Three sources told Reuters that the new version of the agreement aims to obtain the withdrawal of Rwandan troops from eastern Congo over several months, while two of them said the withdrawal would be conditioned on operations against the FDLR. The sources - three diplomats and a Congolese official - asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the talks. Rwandan government spokesperson Yolande Makolo told Reuters on Thursday that under the agreement the "lifting of defensive measures in our border area" would be contingent upon the FDLR's "neutralisation". Tina Salama, spokesperson for Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi, told Reuters that Kinshasa was intent on securing the "disengagement or total withdrawal" of Rwandan forces from Congolese territory. A State Department spokesperson said it did not comment on ongoing diplomatic negotiations. It remains unclear how far the agreement to be signed on Friday will advance beyond a declaration of principles agreed in April. Technical experts from the two countries initialed a draft peace agreement last week, saying it addressed issues related to territorial integrity, "a prohibition of hostilities" and the disengagement, disarmament and conditional integration of non-state armed groups. It also referred to a mechanism agreed as part of an earlier Angolan-backed peace effort to monitor and verify the withdrawal of Rwandan soldiers and Congolese military operations targeting the FDLR. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/congo-drops-demand-immediate-rwandan-troop-pullout-sources-say-2025-06-26/