2025-11-27 06:55

Traders see 85% chance of US interest rate cut in December US consumer confidence falls in November Hassett, frontrunner for Fed Chair, says rates should be lower Nov 27 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, easing from a near two-week high hit in the previous session, while investors assessed the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate cut in December. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,156.89 per ounce, as of 1216 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery slipped 0.2% to $4,154.40 per ounce. Sign up here. "We still expect the consolidation that started with the October setback to continue as the dust of that setback has not fully settled yet," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke. Bullion has fallen 5% since hitting a record high of $4,381.21 on October 20, but has broadly traded above the key 4,000 an ounce level. "The factors we see in favour of the gold market are largely unchanged, including slowing U.S. growth leading to lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar, sustained safe-haven demand and continued strong central bank buying," Menke added. Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and size of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates. Kevin Hassett, who has emerged as a frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, has aligned with President Donald Trump in advocating a rate cut. Meanwhile, comments this week from San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Christopher Waller also bolstered expectations of a cut. Traders are now pricing in an 85% chance of a rate cut next month compared with just 30% a week earlier, CME FedWatch showed. Non-yielding gold tends to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment. U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will operate on a shortened schedule on Friday. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.1% to $53.39 per ounce, platinum gained 0.9% to $1,602.10, and palladium was steady at $1,422.65. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-steadies-near-two-week-high-investors-weigh-fed-rate-cut-bets-2025-11-27/

2025-11-27 06:54

Stocks edge up, US rate cut expectations grow Yen perks up but intervention focus remains AI spending worries subside for now US markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday, trading more muted LONDON, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Stocks in Europe edged up on Thursday, while the dollar held steady, as investor confidence in a Federal Reserve rate cut next month kept sentiment upbeat, which also helped keep bitcoin above its recent lows. A holiday-shortened week has limited some of the activity across markets. Stocks have kept a largely upbeat tone and currencies are much more sedate as investors shrug off AI bubble worries that had roiled equities earlier in November. Sign up here. With U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, activity was more muted than usual across the major asset classes. 'THE MARKET'S KRYPTONITE' European markets traded modestly higher, with the STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) , opens new tab up 0.2%, led by gains in defence and tech companies that helped offset losses in healthcare stocks. With a Fed rate cut largely seen as a near-certainty next month against the backdrop of an upbeat earnings season, the most likely direction for stocks is going to be upwards, analysts said. "As long as your main engine is going nicely, then a lot of the worries about valuations just get pushed up to the back foot for the time being, until something else comes along," IG chief markets strategist Chris Beauchamp said. He added that the most likely catalyst to derail a rally would come in the form of renewed concern over spending on AI, as has been the case for weeks. "That is the market's kryptonite at the moment," he said. The dollar, meanwhile, held steady against a basket of currencies . Sterling retreated from near four-week highs hit on Wednesday after British finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget helped alleviate some concern about Britain's long-term finances. The pound was unchanged at $1.324, as was the euro at $1.1593. DATA GAP CAN'T TEMPER RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS U.S. macro data is flowing again since the record 43-day government shutdown ended in mid-November, although most of the reports so far have been fairly out of date and offered very little insight into the current state of the economy. This has left investors leaning more heavily on comments from Fed officials for some guidance on where interest rates might go in the coming months. A number of speakers in the last week, including San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Christopher Waller, have boosted expectations for a December rate cut. Traders are now pricing in an 85% chance of a rate cut next month, compared with just 30% a week earlier, CME FedWatch showed. ROUND-THE-CLOCK YEN VIGILANCE In the currency market, the Japanese yen was in the spotlight, having strengthened to 156.375 per dollar from nearly 158 a week ago. Investors are watching for possible intervention from Tokyo after weeks of verbal jawboning from authorities to stem the currency's relentless slide. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ruled out on Wednesday the possibility that Japan could face a British-style "Truss moment", or loss of market confidence stemming from her administration's spending plans. Sources told Reuters that the BOJ was preparing markets for a possible rate hike as soon as next month as it may take a more consistent rate hike path to alter the trajectory of the currency. "There's a general feeling that Japanese policymakers will hold off from intervening unless (dollar/yen) were to rise to 158.00-160," David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said. Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $90,800, set to break a four-week losing streak with a nearly 3% gain. Gold eased 0.1% to $4,159 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-11-27/

2025-11-27 06:49

TOKYO, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Japan's Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, the world's biggest, could be restarted as soon as January pending consent from regional authorities, the plant's director was quoted as saying by Jiji news agency on Thursday. A Japanese regional governor last week gave the green light for a partial restart of the plant, as Japan tries to revive its nuclear sector and reduce fossil fuel imports. The Niigata prefecture assembly is set to vote on his decision during its regular session beginning on December 2. Sign up here. If the consent process is completed by the end of the year, it will be possible to restart the plant's Unit No. 6, one of the two biggest at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, as early as January, Jiji quoted director Takeyuki Inagaki as saying. After the assembly's approval, Tokyo Electric Power Co (9501.T) , opens new tab, the operator, would apply to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a pre-use confirmation of the Unit 6. The process usually takes between three weeks to a month, Inagaki said. The restart, if approved by the regional assembly, would be first for TEPCO after a nuclear disaster at its Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 for which it continues to pay compensation. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/japans-kashiwazaki-kariwa-nuclear-plant-could-restart-january-jiji-reports-2025-11-27/

2025-11-27 06:44

Death toll in southern Thailand floods reaches 55 Indonesia battles to reach victims of floods and landslides, 61 dead Malaysia issues tropical storm warnings through to weekend Weather experts say two systems interacted to unleash havoc HAT YAI, Thailand/KUALA PERLIS, Malaysia, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Flood rescue teams in Thailand readied drones to deliver aid and helicopters dropped supplies to people marooned on rooftops on Thursday, as the death toll from its worst floods in years rose and the number killed by a cyclone in Indonesia climbed to 61. Thailand's government said 55 people died during severe floods from a week of heavy rain that has devastated nine southern provinces, while on the Indonesian island of Sumatra, rescue teams battled to reach communities cut off by landslides and floods that wreaked chaos in three provinces. Sign up here. Thailand has pushed relief efforts into high gear after the military brought in an aircraft carrier, 20 helicopters and convoys of trucks to deliver food, medicine and dinghies, and issued a public appeal for boats and jet skis to reach people stranded for days by waters up to 2 metres (7 feet) high. Floodwaters had receded on Thursday in Thailand's worst-hit city of Hat Yai and authorities were optimistic that access could increase and allow basic services to be restored. "Efforts to assist the public are continuing, but the flooding situation will be a long fight," Thai government spokesperson Siripong Angkasakulkiat said. Nearly 3 million people have been affected by floods in southern Thailand, with thousands of people huddling in evacuation centres, while in neighbouring Malaysia, similar flooding in seven states killed two people and forced more than 34,000 into shelters. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVASTATES INDONESIAN ISLAND On Sumatra, an Indonesian island of 60 million people, a tropical cyclone unleashed deadly floods and landslides, with at least 100 people missing and power outages and damaged infrastructure hampering rescue efforts. Kompas TV showed images of earth sliding down a hillside to pile up in front of homes, while gushing waters higher than 1 metre (3.5 feet) swept along debris and the branches of trees. People were carried out of their homes through fast-flowing water and helped onto orange rubber boats in the teeming rain, video from the search and rescue agency showed. Verified images from West Sumatra showed rescue teams carrying bodies through deep mud and cars displaced and on top of each other after being carried away by a tide of floodwater. Meteorologists say current extremes of weather in Southeast Asia could stem from the interaction of two active systems, Typhoon Koto in the Philippines and the unusual formation of Cyclone Senyar in the Malacca Strait. Global warming can bring more frequent extreme events as higher sea surface temperatures supercharge tropical storms. The most recent floods follow a series of deadly typhoons and heavy monsoon rains that have lashed the Philippines and Vietnam and swelled floods elsewhere. ARMY REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE Thailand's army engineering corps with specialist vehicles and 2,000 members of the civil defence corps arrived on Thursday in Hat Yai, the fifth-largest city, where helicopters were delivering food to hospitals and victims still stuck on rooftops. In Hat Yai, thousands have been stranded by the heaviest rainfall in 15 years, with 335 mm (13 inches) recorded on Friday, the city's highest in a single day for 300 years. Aerial footage under grey skies over Hat Yai showed miles of roads engulfed by brown water, with heavy-duty trucks crawling along wide thoroughfares past abandoned cars and lorries, as groups of people waded slowly through knee-deep water. "I'm walking back to my grandmother because she hadn’t had food for two or three days. I heard she finally received some food, but I’m still worried," said Natawat Chermmontri, 18, moments before diving into the water to swim across a road. TROPICAL STORM WARNING Waters were receding in Malaysia, where authorities issued new warnings on Thursday of a tropical storm until the weekend that could bring strong winds, rough seas and heavy, continuous rain affecting seven states. Container lorries were used to bring some Malaysians back over the border from Thailand, the foreign minister said, as smaller vehicles were unable to traverse the floodwaters. Authorities said about 500 nationals were still stranded in Hat Yai, a city popular with Malaysian tourists. At an evacuation centre in the state of Perlis, Gon Qasim said rising waters trapped her in her home in the middle of a paddy field. "The water was like the ocean," the 73-year-old said. In Thailand, police said they were assisting 1,000 stranded foreigners, moving them to shelters at a university. At an indoor basketball arena that was turned into an evacuation centre, a tearful Kritchawat Sothiananthakul, 70, described the inexorable rise of waters in his Hat Yai home, as he waited with his dog to be rescued. "We had to climb down from the roof, get into the boat," he said. "I needed to carry it and then get onto a truck... We had to leave everything because everything was submerged." https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/thailand-eyes-drones-boost-flood-relief-efforts-deaths-climb-indonesia-2025-11-27/

2025-11-27 06:33

Reuters Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global financial commentary. LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Silver may be viewed as something of a bridesmaid to gold in precious metal markets, seemingly overshadowed by its more talked about rival. But silver is quietly outperforming gold in generating returns to investors and perhaps has a more compelling long-term outlook given a structural supply deficit and surging demand from renewable technologies such as solar panels. Sign up here. Spot silver has been in a sustained uptrend since October 2023, leaping by 163% from a low of $20.67 an ounce on October 3 of that year to a record high of $54.38 on November 13. It has since retreated 5.6% to close at $51.33 an ounce on Wednesday. Spot gold rose by 142% from a low of $1,813.90 an ounce on October 3, 2023 to a record of $4,381.21 on October 20, before retreating 5.0% to close at $4,163.51 on Wednesday. While silver hasn't massively outperformed gold, its stronger gains have come without the high media profile assigned to perhaps the more glamorous of the two precious metals. Silver also has a track record of delivering higher percentage returns than gold, with a rally of 431% between October 2008 to a then-record high of $48.24 an ounce on April 27, 2011. Gold also rose over that time period to its then all-time high of $1,920.30 an ounce on September 6, 2011, but its gains were a more modest 168%. The media tends to focus more on gold when it rallies given its role throughout history as a store of value and its appeal as jewellery. The current uptrend was supercharged after the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, which sparked expectations of monetary policy easing, but also of a risk of a loss of confidence in U.S. assets such as Treasuries as his administration sought greater control over the Federal Reserve. Central bank buying and strong investor interest in both gold exchange-traded funds and bars and coins helped propel gold's rally. Silver does ride on gold's coattails to a certain extent, but its lower value means its more costly to store physical silver, which does limit some of its investment appeal. SOLAR SURGE The more compelling bullish case for silver lies with increasing industrial demand and limited scope to boost mined output. Industrial demand rose to 689.1 million ounces in 2024 from 644 million the prior year, according to LSEG data. Of this, 243.7 million ounces was for use in solar panels, up from 191.8 million the prior year and up 158% from the 94.4 million in 2020. Global solar capacity additions were about 600 gigawatts (GW) in 2024, and are expected to rise to close to 1,000 GW by 2030. The International Energy Agency expects 4,000 GW of new solar capacity will be installed from 2024 to 2030. This suggests that solar alone is going to drive silver demand higher by close to 150 million ounces a year by 2030, which would represent an additional 13% on top of the 2024 physical demand of 1.169 billion ounces. While other sources of silver demand may be squeezed by higher prices, such as jewellery, it's likely that the market will struggle to keep up with demand. The market deficit, as calculated by LSEG, was 501.4 million ounces in 2024, up sharply from 19.4 million in 2023. The majority of mined silver is produced as a byproduct of other metals, such as copper, lead, zinc and gold. This means supply gains are largely dependent on the supply-demand economics for those metals, rather than on silver's fundamental outlook. Silver supply may well increase in coming years given positive sentiment towards copper and gold, but expanding output from existing mines or developing new projects is a lengthy process and may take some time to materialise. Silver supply may also be constrained by the expected closure of some mines by 2030, with an article on industry website Mining Technology published in July forecasting that global silver production , opens new tab will drop to 901 million ounces by 2030 from an expected 944 million this year. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/silver-quietly-outperforms-gold-precious-metal-podium-2025-11-27/

2025-11-27 06:10

MUMBAI, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Indian regulators are in discussions to reassess stringent regulations governing exchange-traded currency derivatives, following appeals from exchanges and traders, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, in a potential effort to revive a market increasingly shifting offshore. The Reserve Bank of India in 2024 reiterated a rule that currency derivative positions on exchanges should be backed by underlying exposures. While the rule had existed before then, it had not been strictly enforced, leading to a surge in speculative trading. Sign up here. After the advisory, trading in the contracts -- used to hedge against foreign exchange risks and speculate on currency movements -- nosedived in India and rose overseas. The average daily turnover in currency futures dropped to $766.84 million in October 2025 from $3.7 billion in March 2024 on the National Stock Exchange of India. In contrast, turnover for dollar/rupee futures - the most actively traded - rose to $3.2 billion from $1.8 billion in March 2024 at Singapore's SGX. While a formal review has not been initiated, top leadership of RBI and the Securities and Exchange Board of India are talking about tweaking rules to facilitate reopening the market to individual and proprietary traders with appropriate guardrails, two of the three sources said. A final decision will rest with the central bank. SPECULATION - A NECESSARY EVIL? “The earlier stance was to frown upon speculative activity, this view is changing as speculation improves price discovery,” the first source said. The sources declined to be named as the discussions are private in nature. Emails to SEBI and RBI sent on Wednesday were not answered. The dwindling volumes confirm the RBI's concern that this was a speculators' market, the third source said. "However, the segment was not creating any huge issue for domestic currency management. RBI deals with far more volatility from other segments," this person said, adding that the central bank may reconsider the issue. In order to prevent a spurt in speculation, traders have recommended tighter position limits, the first source said. Before April 2024, investors could build positions of up to $100 million without evidence of underlying exposure. "A limit of $100 million allowed many individual participants to speculate on rupee, which was RBI’s main concern. Market participants have suggested to reduce the limit to address the central bank’s worry,” the second source said. ($1 = 89.2625 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-regulators-talks-review-curbs-currency-derivatives-sources-say-2025-11-27/