2025-06-24 02:57

MUMBAI, June 24 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is poised to climb at open on Tuesday as the plunge in crude oil on fading Middle East geopolitical risks improves the outlook for the South Asian nation's trade balance and assets. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated an open in the 86.10 to 86.15 range, versus 86.75 in the previous session. Sign up here. Brent prices fell 2% in Asia after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire. Brent had already slid 7% on Monday when Iran made a token retaliation against a U.S. base. "With Trump having lent a hand in brokering a peaceful resolution, the prospect of a prolonged conflict with U.S. involvement has been re-priced," clearing the way to add risk, Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone, said. U.S. equities rose Monday and futures indicated a further rally. The dollar index softened and Asian equities and currencies advanced. "It is expected that the big opening dip (on USD/INR) will run into buy orders. I do not think 86 will be taken out, though I reckon that positions are on the lighter side and interbank will be on the hunt to put in shorts," a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. Brent crude is now trading below $70 a barrel — near levels seen before Israel’s first strike on Iran. The rupee was at 85.60 prior to that escalation. There is "definitely" more room for the rupee to rally, a treasury official at a bank said. It's just that large drops on USD/INR tend to "struggle to hold on". Meanwhile, Federal Reserve vice-chair Michelle Bowman said the first interest rate cut this year could come as soon as July, further undermining the dollar and boosting risk. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.25-86.30; onshore one-month forward premium at 10.25 paise ** Dollar index down at 98.17 ** Brent crude futures down 2.1% at $69.88 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.35% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $1,093.6 mln worth of Indian shares on June 22 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $18.8 mln worth of Indian bonds on June 22 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-set-rally-crude-dives-israel-iran-de-escalation-2025-06-24/

2025-06-24 01:47

NEW YORK, June 24 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (GS.N) , opens new tab has appointed Aekloveya Shyam as head of mergers & acquisitions (M&A) in the Global Real Estate Group, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters. Shyam previously served as a managing director in the Healthcare Group within Investment Banking, where he participated in several multi-billion dollar transactions across the U.S., Europe and Asia. Sign up here. Shyam will focus on strategic transactions and advisory services, reporting to Mike Graziano and Andy Jonas, co-heads of the global Real state group. He joined Goldman in 2011 as an associate, and was named managing director in 2019. A Goldman spokesperson has confirmed the content of the memo. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/goldman-names-aek-shyam-head-ma-global-real-estate-group-2025-06-24/

2025-06-24 00:30

ORLANDO, Florida, June 23 (Reuters) - With the dollar poised for its worst first-half performance since 1986, the selling may seem to be coming from everyone, everywhere, across every asset class. To some extent, that's true. Investors globally appear to be gradually reducing their exposure to dollar-denominated assets, driving the greenback down to its lowest level against a basket of major currencies in three and a half years. But some pressure points are greater than others. Sign up here. Unsurprisingly, non-U.S. investors are responsible for the bulk of the selling, with equity-related selling pressure concentrated among European investors and fixed income-based selling mostly coming from Asia. According to Bank of America's FX strategy team, European "real money" investors - institutions like pension funds and insurance companies - are the main drivers of the dollar's selloff in the second quarter, slashing their dollar positioning to the lowest since 2022 in a matter of weeks. But the story might not be so straightforward. While European investors increasing their dollar hedge ratios have garnered much attention recently, research shows that most of the dollar's average daily declines in the last few months have come in Asian trading hours, suggesting Asian holders of U.S. bonds may also be increasing their dollar hedges. So which is the bigger drag on the dollar: equity-led geographic diversification or fixed income selling? And where is the selling mostly coming from: Europe or Asia? OVER-EXPOSED At first glance, one might pin the blame on equities, as foreign holdings of U.S. stocks are larger than their U.S. debt assets in nominal terms. But percentage-wise, overseas investors' footprint in the U.S. fixed income markets is larger. Foreigners own just over $31 trillion of U.S. securities, with $17.6 trillion in equities and $13.6 trillion of bond holdings, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That represents around 18% of the overall U.S. equity market, compared with 21% of the U.S. agency and corporate bond market and a third of the U.S. Treasury market. Analysts at UBS estimate that euro zone investors account for 25% of the foreign-owned U.S. equity universe, having loaded up on U.S. stocks in recent years. This makes the dollar particularly vulnerable if Wall Street continues to underperform European and Asian markets, they reckon. Breaking down these exposures even further, they find that foreign investors' total net unhedged dollar asset exposure is $23.5 trillion. Of this, investors in G10 countries hold $13.4 trillion, with $9.3 trillion in equities and $4.1 trillion in fixed income. These are vast numbers, and it wouldn't require much of a switch to trigger large cross-border flows. UBS calculates that a hypothetical 5% reduction in G10 countries' dollar position would equate to around $670 billion of dollar selling. Most G10 countries, of course, are in Europe, so the bulk of that selling would come from there. PRICE-SENSITIVE While European investors have mostly been unloading equities thus far, it's good to remember that the region's investors significantly increased their exposure to U.S. bonds over the last decade too, particularly the 2014-2022 years when the European Central Bank's main interest rates were negative. UBS analysts estimate euro zone investors bought $3.4 trillion in foreign debt since 2014. So even a modest rebalancing away from U.S. bonds could have a meaningful impact on prices. Ultimately though, Asian investors still appear to wield more muscle in the U.S. bond market, owning around a third of foreign-held U.S. Treasuries and agency debt. And that figure is probably much higher given that euro zone, Caribbean and UK holdings include assets held on behalf of Asian countries, notably China. Up until this point, there has been no wholesale dumping of U.S. assets, and neither is there likely to be. But it is notable that U.S. assets are increasingly being held by private sector investors, who have replaced central banks as the main buyers of U.S. assets in recent years. The private sector is typically considered more price-sensitive than the official sector. That means these positions may prove less sticky than in the past, especially if the idea of waning "U.S. exceptionalism" truly takes root. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters) Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/whos-selling-breaking-down-dollars-breakdown-mcgeever-2025-06-23/

2025-06-24 00:11

Trump announces Iran, Israel ceasefire Euro, yen gain as oil prices drop, risk currencies rally Fed's Powell expects inflation to rise this summer NEW YORK, June 24 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Tuesday and the euro rose to its highest level since October 2021 after a ceasefire between Iran and Israel was announced, even as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeated that he expects inflation to begin rising this summer. The ceasefire began to take hold on Tuesday under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, raising hopes for an end to the biggest ever military confrontation between the Middle East arch-foes. Sign up here. "The market right now is unwinding the Middle East trade," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto. The euro and yen gained as oil prices tumbled. The European Union and Japan rely heavily on imports of oil and liquefied natural gas, while the U.S. is a net exporter. The single currency was last up 0.38% at $1.162 after earlier reaching $1.1641. The dollar weakened 1% to 144.68 Japanese yen . Risk sensitive assets including the Australian dollar also gained on improving risk sentiment. The Aussie was last up 0.68% versus the greenback at $0.6503. Sterling rose 0.77% to $1.3626 and reached $1.3648, the highest since January 2022. The U.S. currency fell even after Powell said in testimony before U.S. Congress that he and many at the Fed expect inflation to start rising soon, and that the central bank was in no rush to ease borrowing costs in the meantime. Traders were particularly attuned to his remarks after two other Fed policymakers indicated they support near-term rate cuts, citing concerns over the labor market and falling expectations about a resurgence in inflation. "The market was looking for a strong pushback regarding the possibility of a rate cut but Powell continues to sit on the fence," said Button. "The big debate at the Fed right now is in the jobs market. Waller and Bowman are saying they're seeing signs of softness, whereas Powell said we don't see weakness in the labor market," Button said. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said Monday the time to cut interest rates appears imminent while Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Friday that the Fed should consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that interest rates in the country should be lowered by at least two to three percentage points. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 60 basis points of cuts this year, up from around 46 basis points before Waller's comments on Friday. That indicates expectations that two 25-basis-points in cuts are certain, with a rising chance of a third reduction. A cut at the Fed's July 29-30 meeting continues to be seen as very unlikely, with the first cut expected in September. If the economy deteriorates and the Fed cuts interest rates faster than currently expected that could be very negative for the dollar, said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX strategist at UBS in New York. However, "if it doesn't, if the Fed doesn't cut until September and then delivers just two cuts this year, we're probably looking at some dollar weakness, but it's unlikely to be very significant, especially for pairs like dollar/yen, because the dollar still just benefits from carry quite a bit." Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in June as households worried about business conditions and employment prospects over the next six months. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 1.72% to $105,589. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-falls-broad-risk-rally-after-trump-announces-israel-iran-ceasefire-2025-06-24/

2025-06-24 00:00

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Israeli prime minister, Iran president both claim victory US airstrikes only set back Iran's nuclear program by months, initial US intelligence assessment finds US tells UN Security Council that strikes 'degraded' nuclear program WASHINGTON/TEL AVIV/ISTANBUL, June 24 (Reuters) - U.S. airstrikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear capability and only set it back by a few months, according to a preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment, as a shaky ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump took hold between Iran and Israel. Earlier on Tuesday, both Iran and Israel signaled that the air war between the two nations had ended, at least for now, after Trump publicly scolded them for violating a ceasefire he announced at 0500 GMT. Sign up here. As the two countries lifted civilian restrictions after 12 days of war - which the U.S. joined with an attack on Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities - each sought to claim victory. Trump said over the weekend that the U.S. deployment of 30,000-pound bombs had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program. But that claim appeared to be contradicted by an initial assessment by one of his administration's intelligence agencies, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the sources said Iran's enriched uranium stocks had not been eliminated, and the country's nuclear program, much of which is buried deep underground, may have been set back only a month or two. Iran says its nuclear research is for civilian energy production. The White House said the intelligence assessment was "flat out wrong." According to the report, which was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the strikes sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities, but did not collapse underground buildings, said one of the people familiar with its findings. Some centrifuges still remained intact after the attacks, the Washington Post said, citing an unnamed person familiar with the report. Trump's administration told the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday that its weekend strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities had "degraded" Iran's nuclear program, short of Trump's earlier assertion that the facilities had been "obliterated." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that the attack on Iran had removed the threat of nuclear annihilation and was determined to thwart any attempt by Tehran to revive its weapons program. "We have removed two immediate existential threats to us: the threat of nuclear annihilation and the threat of annihilation by 20,000 ballistic missiles," Netanyahu said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country had successfully ended the war in what he called a "great victory," according to Iranian media. Pezeshkian also told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Tehran was ready to resolve differences with the U.S., according to official news agency IRNA. Israel launched the surprise air war on June 13, attacking Iranian nuclear facilities and killing top military commanders in the worst blow to the Islamic Republic since the 1980s war with Iraq. Iran, which denies trying to build nuclear weapons, retaliated with barrages of missiles on Israeli military sites and cities. 'GREAT VICTORY' Israel's military lifted restrictions on activity across the country at 8 p.m. local time (1700 GMT), and officials said Ben Gurion Airport, the country's main airport near Tel Aviv, had reopened. Iran's airspace likewise will be reopened, state-affiliated Nournews reported. A White House official said Trump brokered the ceasefire deal with Netanyahu, and other administration officials were in touch with the Iranian government. The truce appeared fragile: Both Israel and Iran took hours to acknowledge they had accepted the ceasefire and accused each other of violating it. Trump scolded both sides but aimed especially stinging criticism at Israel, telling the close U.S. ally to "calm down now." He later said Israel called off further attacks at his command. Israel's defense minister, Israel Katz, said he told his U.S. counterpart, Pete Hegseth, that his country would respect the ceasefire unless Iran violated it. Pezeshkian likewise said Iran would honor the ceasefire as long as Israel did, according to Iranian media. Whether the Israel-Iran truce can hold is a major question given the deep mistrust between the two foes. But Trump's ability to broker a ceasefire showed Washington retains some leverage in the volatile region. Israeli armed forces chief of staff Eyal Zamir said a "significant chapter" of the conflict had concluded but the campaign against Iran was not over. He said the military would refocus on its war against Iran-backed Hamas militants in Gaza. Iran's military command also warned Israel and the U.S. to learn from the "crushing blows" it delivered during the conflict. Iranian authorities said 610 people were killed in their country by Israeli strikes and 4,746 injured. Iran's retaliatory bombardment killed 28 people in Israel, the first time its air defenses were penetrated by large numbers of Iranian missiles. Oil prices plunged and stock markets rallied worldwide in a sign of confidence inspired by the ceasefire, which allayed fears of disruption to critical oil supplies from the Gulf. CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS? Earlier in the day, Trump admonished Israel with an obscenity in an extraordinary outburst at an ally whose air war he had joined two days before by dropping massive bunker-buster bombs on Iran's underground nuclear sites. Before departing the White House en route to a NATO summit in Europe, Trump told reporters he was unhappy with both sides for the ceasefire breach but particularly frustrated with Israel, which he said had "unloaded" shortly after agreeing to the deal. "I've got to get Israel to calm down now," Trump said. Iran and Israel had been fighting "so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing." Netanyahu's office acknowledged Israel bombed a radar site near Tehran in what it said was retaliation for Iranian missiles fired three-and-a-half hours after the ceasefire was due to begin. It did not explicitly say whether the strike on the radar site took place before or after they spoke. The Islamic Republic denied launching any missiles and said Israel's attacks had continued for an hour-and-a-half beyond the time the truce was meant to start. "Who mediated or how it happened doesn't matter," said Reza Sharifi, 38, heading back to Tehran from Rasht on the Caspian Sea, where he had fled with his family. "The war is over. It never should have started in the first place." https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-announces-israel-iran-ceasefire-2025-06-23/

2025-06-23 23:49

June 23 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view to ending the conflict between the two nations. "On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR'," Trump wrote on his Truth Social site. Sign up here. U.S. crude futures tumbled after Trump's announcement, which came after the close of trading on Wall Street. S&P 500 e-mini futures rose when trading resumed, while the U.S. dollar fell. COMMENTS HIROFUMI SUZUKI, CHIEF FX STRATEGIST, SMBC, TOKYO: "Following President Trump's ceasefire announcement, financial markets, including the crude oil market, have returned to levels seen before the tensions between Israel and Iran began. This is also true for the USD/JPY exchange rate, as the dollar buying driven by the worsening Middle East situation seems to have dissipated. "Going forward, it will depend on how feasible both Iran and Israel find the ceasefire to be. If the ceasefire proceeds as announced, the USD/JPY may gradually move back towards yen appreciation." TONY SYCAMORE, MARKET ANALYST, IG, SYDNEY: "There's a high chance that we've seen the end of the conflict for now. We still have some questions around where 400 kilograms of uranium have moved to, that's a massive concern still. So while I say we've got a big de-escalation, I don't think we're completely out of the woods. "There is a lot of relief in markets, and things do look like they've de-escalated, but there's still some unanswered questions." RAY ATTRILL, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY AT NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, SYDNEY: "There is a lot of the momentum to the reversal in the oil price strength that we are already seeing after the Iran’s strike on Qatar, which was clearly very well choreographed to be symbolic but for domestic consumption. "To the extent that we've got a reduction in the risk of a renewed oil price spike, I think that plays positively from a risk point of view. I think it sort of removes that downside global growth risks. And I'd expect that it will supports some further, modest sort of grind higher in those sort of procyclical currencies.” "So I think that would encourage people in the view that maybe the US dollar can sort of resume its downtrend here." ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, NEW YORK: "I think it's going to be huge. We could have an Iran with very limited nuclear capabilities. We can have a country that is still intact, but still the same regime, so we don't have to deal with regime change. We could have an attack on Israel certainly off the table, and we don't have any kind of threat of life to the United States troops. So the market should like that. I expect some more positive market reaction tomorrow as we go forward." ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK: "If, in fact, this holds, I would certainly say that's a market positive, and the futures are leaning in that direction." "Talk is cheap around these types of things. But certainly, I think the market and the rest of the world would like to see this come to some sort of peaceful resolve and not escalate further than what we've seen already. And I think that this afternoon's market action was leaning in that direction, and hopefully this is the next step in that direction, such that we don't have to worry about the next level of escalation, which is never going to be pretty." JACK ABLIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CRESSET WEALTH ADVISORS, PALM BEACH, FLORIDA: "This lifts some of the geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the markets, although, for the most part, equity investors have been kind of shrugging the uncertainty off. I think it's certainly an incremental positive, but I don't think it's a catalyst for the next bull market." "It certainly sounds like a significant milestone, and I hope it it's true." JAKE DOLLARHIDE, CEO, LONGBOW ASSET MANAGEMENT, TULSA, OKLAHOMA: "Part of the problem holding equities back has been higher oil prices and geopolitical risk, and a cease fire or end to the conflict would go a long way towards solving both those issues." "This may be the match that sparks a continuation of the rally we saw today." https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/view-investors-react-after-trump-announced-ceasefire-between-iran-israel-2025-06-23/