2025-06-23 05:57
SINGAPORE, June 23 (Reuters) - Global shares slipped on Monday while oil prices briefly hit five-month highs and the dollar firmed as the world held its breath to see if Iran would retaliate against U.S. attacks on its nuclear sites. Market reaction to the weekend escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has been subdued so far as investors remain in wait-and-see mode. Sign up here. Here are some comments from market analysts: CAROL KONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY: "The price action in response to the escalating Middle East conflict has been muted so far as markets wait and see how Iran responds. Judging by the small fall in FOMC rate cut pricing by year-end, there are more worries about the positive inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict than the negative economic impact. The currency markets will be at the mercy of comments and actions from the Iranian, Israeli and U.S. governments. The risks are clearly skewed to further upside in the safe haven currencies if the parties escalate the conflict." CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO, SINGAPORE: "Markets appear to be treating the U.S. strikes on Iran as a contained event for now, rather than the start of a broader war. The muted haven flows suggest investors are still assuming this is a one-off escalation, not a disruption to global oil supply or trade. "Markets may be responding not to the escalation itself, but to the perception that it could reduce longer-term uncertainty. If Iran’s nuclear capabilities are seen as meaningfully set back, some investors may interpret that as a de-escalation in disguise — a geopolitical risk removed, rather than added. "That said, any sign of Iranian retaliation or threat to the Strait of Hormuz could quickly shift sentiment and force markets to reprice geopolitical risk more aggressively." PRASHANT NEWNAHA, SENIOR ASIA-PACIFIC RATES STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES, SINGAPORE: "The market reaction to weekend developments has been muted to state the least. The price action implies this will be a short-lived conflict, that escalation will ultimately lead to de-escalation." SHOKI OMORI, CHIEF DESK STRATEGIST, MIZUHO SECURITIES, TOKYO: "On Monday, in light of weekend geopolitical risk events in the Middle East, market participants adopted a wait-and-see stance. Although the market initially anticipated a bull-flattening of the JGB curve following last week's unexpectedly large reduction in 20-year bond issuance, muted movements in U.S. interest rates, combined with a shift in sentiment toward dollar buying rather than selling, made it challenging for investors to take decisive positions." VASU MENON, MANAGING DIRECTOR, INVESTMENT STRATEGY, OCBC, SINGAPORE: "Much depends on what Iran will do next, but the shock and awe of the US attack and the warning from Trump not to retaliate or suffer significant consequences, may prevent Iran’s leaders from responding aggressively." "Investors should prepare for more volatility in the coming days, and possibly even weeks, given the ongoing Middle East crisis and uncertainty about Trump’s tariff policy. However, these developments may not be the end of the global equity bull market as long it doesn’t result in sharply higher inflation and cause a global recession. "There is scope for safe havens like gold to continue rising as global uncertainties are likely to remain a fixture, and global central banks continue to diversify away from their US dollar holdings towards gold. We see gold rising to US$3,900/ounce over a 12-month horizon." https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/analysts-react-markets-brace-iran-response-us-attack-2025-06-23/
2025-06-23 05:47
Iran issues stark warning to Trump US dollar up 0.6% against its peers Fresh record high for gold not on immediate horizon, analyst says June 23 (Reuters) - Gold edged higher on Monday as Iran-Israel tensions lifted safe-haven demand, though gains were limited by a stronger dollar, while markets closely watched for any Iranian response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,369.80 an ounce, as of 1211 GMT. U.S. gold futures were steady at $3,385.90. Sign up here. "Continued and multiple geopolitical uncertainties will likely continue to underpin (gold prices)," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank "The prospect of a Fed rate cut delay amid higher energy prices potentially strengthening the dollar calls for patience with a fresh record high not on the immediate horizon." The dollar firmed 0.6% against its peers, limiting gains for gold as it makes the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies. Iran and Israel traded air and missile strikes as the world braced for Tehran's response to the U.S. attack on its nuclear sites and U.S. President Donald Trump raised the idea of regime change in the Islamic Republic. Iran vowed to defend itself a day after the U.S. dropped 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs onto the mountain above Iran's Fordow nuclear site. The U.S. bombing of Iran's nuclear sites injected fresh uncertainty into the outlook for inflation and economic activity at the start of a week chock-full of new economic data and central banker commentary, including two days of Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Last week, the U.S. central bank held interest rates steady, but slowed its overall outlook for rate cuts in response to a more challenging economic outlook. Investors are currently anticipating 50 basis points worth of Fed rate cuts by the end of this year. Bullion tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments and during periods of uncertainty. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.3% to $36.12, platinum rose 2.1% at $1,292.03, while palladium gained 2.7% to $1,072.42. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-subdued-dollar-gains-markets-await-iran-response-2025-06-23/
2025-06-23 05:46
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Iran's missile attack on US base in Qatar causes no injuries Trump praises Iran's advance notice, urges peace with Israel Oil prices drop 7% DOHA/ISTANBUL/TEL AVIV, June 23 (Reuters) - Iran launched a missile attack on an American air base in Qatar on Monday that caused no injuries, and President Donald Trump dismissed it as a "weak response" to U.S. attacks while urging Iran and Israel to make peace as the conflict entered its 12th day. The attack on Al Udeid Air Base in neighbouring Qatar threatened to widen a conflict that began on June 13 with an Israeli strike on Iran targeting its nuclear programme and ballistic missiles. Sign up here. Iran had threatened to retaliate against the United States after U.S. bombers dropped 30,000-pound bunker-busters on Iranian underground nuclear facilities at the weekend, joining Israel's air war against Iran, and Trump had raised the possibility of the Iranian government being toppled. "We did not assault anyone, and we will never accept being assaulted by anyone," Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement. "We will not submit to anyone’s aggression – this is the logic of the Iranian nation." Iran gave advance notice to the U.S. via diplomatic channels hours ahead of the attack, as well as to Qatari authorities. Trump seized on that as a positive sign. "I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured," Trump wrote on his Truth Social media site. "Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same." He said Iran fired 14 missiles at the air base, calling it "a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered." "I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed and hardly any damage was done," Trump wrote. "Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their 'system,' and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE," Trump wrote. Iran's handling of the attack recalled earlier clashes with the United States and Israel, with Tehran seeking a balance between saving face with a military response but without provoking a cycle of escalation it can't afford. The country's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran was ready to respond again in case of further action by the United States, according to a statement posted by the ministry's account on Telegram. The attack strained Iran's relationship with its Arab neighbors: Qatar condemned it, as did Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. "There are deep ties between the two states (Iran and Qatar) and the two nations, but the attack undoubtedly calls for a genuine meeting and a clear stance," Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari said at a press conference. Israel said it carried out its most extensive wave of attacks on Tehran ever on Monday. Targets included a Tehran prison where Iran's leadership holds political opponents, in a renewed demonstration of its willingness to strike beyond its previously stated military and nuclear targets and attack key pillars of Iran's ruling system. Despite Iran's threats to challenge oil shipments from the Gulf, oil prices fell 7% in volatile trading , suggesting traders doubted the Islamic Republic would follow through on any action that would disrupt global supplies. Qatar, situated just across the Gulf from Iran, reopened its airspace after a brief suspension, its civil aviation authority said early on Tuesday. Iran's foreign minister met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow as Tehran sought backing from one of its last major power friends for its next steps. STRIKING 'REGIME TARGETS' Israel made clear that its strikes on Evin prison and other targets in Tehran were intended to hit the Iranian ruling apparatus broadly, and its ability to sustain power. Iran's IRIB state broadcaster released video showing rescue workers combing the flattened wreckage of a building at the prison, carrying a wounded man on a stretcher. The Mizan news outlet of Iran's judiciary said urgent action was being taken to protect the health and safety of inmates there. Evin has long been Iran's primary prison for political detainees and people accused of espionage, as well as the site of executions that remain strong memories for the opposition. Several high-profile foreign prisoners are also held there. Israel's military said it had also struck Revolutionary Guard command centres responsible for internal security in the Tehran area. The military was "currently striking, with unprecedented force, regime targets and governmental repression bodies in the heart of Tehran," Defence Minister Israel Katz said in a statement. Much of Tehran's population of 10 million has fled after 10 days of bombing. Tasnim News Agency reported a strike at an electricity feeder station in the Evin neighbourhood. Power company Tavanir reported some areas in the capital experienced electricity cuts. LIMITED OPTIONS Since the U.S. joined Israel's campaign by dropping massive bunker-buster bombs on Iranian nuclear production sites on Sunday morning, Iran has repeatedly threatened to retaliate. "Mr Trump, the gambler, you may start this war, but we will be the ones to end it," Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya central military headquarters, said on Monday in a recorded, English-language video statement. The Trump administration maintains that its aim is solely to destroy Iran's nuclear programme, not to open a wider war. But in a social media post on Sunday, Trump spoke of toppling the hardline clerical rulers who have been Washington's principal foes in the Middle East since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Five insiders with knowledge of the discussions said efforts had been ramped up to anoint a successor for Iran's 86-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His son Mojtaba, 56, and Hassan Khomeini, 53, grandson of the revolution's founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, are now seen as the frontrunners, they said. Americans are anxious over a brewing conflict between the U.S. and Iran and worry the violence could escalate after President Donald Trump ordered the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-weighs-retaliation-against-us-strikes-nuclear-sites-2025-06-23/
2025-06-23 05:46
MUMBAI, June 23 (Reuters) - Expectations of rupee volatility and the cost of hedging against the currency's decline had a muted reaction to worries over a deepening of the conflict in the Middle East after the U.S. struck Iran's nuclear sites over the weekend. The reaction across global markets was relatively muted as investors kept their attention on potential retaliation by Iran. The Indian rupee declined 0.2% on the day to 86.8025 per U.S. dollar, tracking weakness in Asian peers. Sign up here. The currency's 1-month implied volatility, a gauge of future expectations, nudged slightly higher but was hovering near its average over the last two months, signalling that market participants were not yet pricing in the risk of outsized swings. Markets are wagering that "risk of further escalation seems low", a trader at a large private bank said, pointing out to the quick cooling of crude oil prices after an initial jump. Brent crude oil futures rose to a peak of $81.4 per barrel but pared gains to quote up 1.7% at $78.3 per barrel. Dollar-rupee forward premiums, too, reflected limited concern about a sharp depreciation of the rupee. The 1-month forward premium was nearly flat at 11.25 paisa. Far forward premiums also showed a contained reaction. However, as a large oil-importing nation, India remains vulnerable to risks from sharp spikes in oil prices, MUFG said in a note. "We would likely revise our USD/INR forecast profile higher if geopolitical risks remain elevated moving forward. Nonetheless, given the weakness already seen in INR, the balance of risks for the currency could be more two-sided." Dampened risk appetite also weighed on Asian currencies and equities across the board. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty (.NSEI) , opens new tab, fell about 0.8% each. The Korean won led losses among Asia FX with a 0.9% decline. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-volatility-forwards-unruffled-by-middle-east-flare-up-2025-06-23/
2025-06-23 05:09
JAKARTA, June 23 (Reuters) - Most areas in Indonesia will see a shorter-than-expected dry season this year due to higher-than-normal precipitation thus far, the country's weather agency said, which is expected to boost the rice crop in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Indonesia's Meteorology and Geophysics agency previously predicted a normal dry season this year, beginning in April in most areas, reaching its peak in June until August. Sign up here. "Our prediction shows that there was an anomaly of higher-than-normal precipitation... this becomes the main basis to predict the delayed dry season this year," the agency's head Dwikorita Karnawati said in a statement over the weekend. The longer wet season is expected to benefit rice farmers because water supply would remain available, Dwikorita said, adding that, as of early June, only 19% of the archipelago has seen the dry season begin. Indonesia's rice output in the January to July period is estimated to rise by 14.93% annually to 21.76 million metric tons, the statistics bureau said. Indonesia targeted rice output to reach 32 million tons this year, higher than last year's at 30.62 million tons. Higher-than-normal rainfall is expected in the southern part of Sumatra island, Java island, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara and West Nusa Tenggara provinces, Dwikorita said. Some parts of Sumatra island and provinces in Borneo island would be the first to face the dry season, she added. The agency urged all stakeholders, including local government, to plan for uncertain climate patterns due to climate change. Heavy rain fell in some parts of Indonesia from January to March, the agency had said. Torrential rain in early March triggered floods of up to 3 metres in and around Indonesia's capital Jakarta and forced thousands to be evacuated. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/indonesia-weather-agency-revises-outlook-shorter-dry-season-2025-2025-06-23/
2025-06-23 04:56
TOKYO, June 23 (Reuters) - Japan's Nippon Yusen (9101.T) , opens new tab and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104.T) , opens new tab said on Monday they have instructed their vessels to minimise the time spent in the Gulf as they continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The shipping companies said they are closely monitoring the situation and sharing updates with ships operating in the region. Sign up here. "We are instructing our vessels to shorten their time in the Persian Gulf whenever possible, depending on their schedules," a Nippon Yusen spokesperson said. "We will make decisions on each vessel's passage through the Strait of Hormuz on a flexible basis," he added. MOL's safety operation supporting centre in Tokyo has stepped up 24-hour surveillance, a company spokesperson said. "We are advising vessels operating in the area to exercise maximum caution and providing them with latest information," he said, adding that their vessels have also been instructed to minimise the time in the Gulf. President Donald Trump said the U.S. had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran's Supreme National Security Council must make the final decision on whether to close the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's Press TV said on Sunday, after parliament was reported to have backed the measure. Iran has long used the threat of closing the Strait, through which around 20% of global oil and gas demand flows, as a way to ward off Western pressure which is now at its peak following the U.S. strikes. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/japanese-ships-transiting-strait-hormuz-minimise-time-gulf-2025-06-23/
