2025-06-30 18:09

June 30 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee on Monday said that with unemployment near 4% and inflation around 2.5% and falling, he sees no possibility that tariffs or another supply-side shock could in the near term cause actual 1970s-style stagflation, when the unemployment was double today's rate and inflation was above 13%. "But there's definitely the possibility of both things getting worse at the same time," Goolsbee said at the Aspen Ideas Festival in Aspen, Colorado, referring to unemployment and inflation. "And there you usually say, well, how long is each side's discrepancy going to last? Do you think it's temporary or do you think it's permanent? And how big is each side...that's the way I think about it." He did not give a forecast for those variables. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-goolsbee-sees-no-stagflation-definitely-things-could-get-worse-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 18:03

Robinhood shares hit record high Company also planning OpenAI, SpaceX tokens Rolls out perpetual futures, staking June 30 (Reuters) - Robinhood (HOOD.O) , opens new tab said on Monday it has launched tokens that will allow its customers in the European Union to trade more than 200 U.S. stocks and exchange-traded funds, including Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab, Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab and Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab. The commission-free tokens can be traded around-the-clock, five days a week. Robinhood also plans to offer tokens linked to stocks of privately-held companies, starting with Sam Altman's OpenAI and Elon Musk's SpaceX, the trading platform's top executives said at its keynote event in France. Sign up here. Robinhood's shares hit a record high and were last up nearly 10%. The tokens will be issued through a partnership with blockchain firm Arbitrum. With the move, the company stands to benefit from rising global interest , opens new tab in the U.S. stock market — home to some of the world's most influential tech giants and leading beneficiaries of the AI boom. Tokenized equities mix traditional finance with crypto-like trading, and have been gaining traction among international investors due to better access, flexible trading hours and lower costs. Experts believe such tokens could dramatically alter the securities investing landscape, though they currently lack regulatory clarity in the United States. Menlo Park, California-based Robinhood plans to eventually develop its own blockchain that will expand trading hours for tokens to 24/7 from 24/5 currently. The company will also expand the number of available stock tokens to "thousands" by the end of the year, Tenev said at the event. "Tokenization is going to open the door to a massive trading revolution," he said. Last month, crypto exchange Kraken also launched equities-linked tokens for non-U.S. investors. EXPANDING CRYPTO TOOLS Robinhood also announced several new product offerings, including crypto perpetual futures for its EU customers and staking for U.S. users. The perpetual futures will allow users to make leveraged bets on the prices of cryptocurrencies. Unlike traditional futures, they have no expiry date. Rival Coinbase (COIN.O) , opens new tab will also begin offering similar tools to U.S. customers from next month. Meanwhile, staking lets customers lock up their cryptocurrency to help validate transactions on the blockchain, earning rewards in return. The practice had been controversial in recent years, until the Securities and Exchange Commission's staff last month said some forms of staking are not securities offerings. https://www.reuters.com/business/robinhood-launches-tokens-allowing-eu-users-trade-us-stocks-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 17:53

SINTRA, Portugal, June 30 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank may not have all the information it needs, including on the trade outlook, by September, making any interest rate cut more likely to come later in the year, ECB policymaker Gediminas Šimkus told Reuters. After cutting interest rates seven times in a row as inflation fell, the ECB has hinted at a pause at its next meeting so it can wait for the fog surrounding trade negotiations between the euro zone and the United States to clear. Sign up here. With these talks still unresolved, Simkus, the Lithuanian central bank governor, said a pause in July was "very likely" and signalled the ECB might be on hold for longer. "I don't know if we'll have all the information we need by September, but I remain open to every possibility," Simkus said in an interview on the sidelines of the ECB's Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. "I believe a move, if any, is more likely towards the end of the year." Following the ECB line, Simkus said the central bank would decide "meeting by meeting" and avoid any precommitment given the "unpredictable environment". "Uncertainty hasn’t receded but grown,” he said. The ECB's June projection showed inflation at the ECB's 2.0% target this year, before dipping to 1.6% the next and returning to 2.0% in 2027. Simkus said that scenario still held. "Nothing has fundamentally changed since June," Simkus said. "The September projections may be fairly similar to June’s, maybe except the euro is even stronger.” https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ecb-more-likely-wait-until-year-end-cut-rates-simkus-says-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 16:34

NEW YORK, June 30 (Reuters) - Surging U.S. government debt may sap investor appetite for key U.S. assets like long-dated Treasuries and the dollar, bolstering the case for turning to opportunities beyond U.S. borders, BlackRock said on Monday. President Donald Trump's tariffs spurred market volatility this year and raised doubts over the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Fears of de-dollarization remain far-fetched but rising government debt could increase that risk, said fixed income executives at the world's largest asset manager. Sign up here. "We’ve been highlighting the precarious position of the U.S. government’s indebtedness for some time now, and, if left unchecked, we view debt as the single greatest risk to the 'special status' of the U.S. in financial markets," they said in a third-quarter fixed income outlook note. Congress is debating a tax and spending bill that is a key element of Trump's economic agenda and that non-partisan analysts say will add up to $5 trillion over the next decade to the U.S. federal government debt pile of more than $36 trillion. Higher government debt could reduce the correlation between the direction of long-dated Treasury yields and monetary policy in the United States, BlackRock said, with yields rising despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Increased supply of U.S. government debt is likely to be met with lower demand from the Fed as well as foreign central banks. That argues for diversification outside of the U.S. government bond market and for more exposure to short-dated U.S. Treasuries that could benefit from interest rate cuts, the asset manager said. "Despite proposed spending cuts, deficits are still climbing - and more of that spending is now going toward interest payments," said BlackRock's investment managers. "With foreign investors stepping back and the government issuing more than half a trillion dollars of debt weekly, the risk of private markets being unable to absorb this debt and consequently pushing government borrowing costs higher, is tangible," they added. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rising-government-debt-poses-greatest-risk-us-market-standing-says-blackrock-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 15:21

Market uncertainties from trade war and high interest rates impact M&A Dealmakers optimistic about the rest of the year Asia sees record number of M&A deals over $10 billion NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - Mergers and acquisitions during the first half of this year were not what investment bankers had hoped for, but a burst of big deals in Asia and renewed optimism in U.S. markets could be paving the way for megadeals. Market uncertainties stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war, high interest rates and broader geopolitical tensions hampered — but did not completely derail — what bankers expected to be a blockbuster year for global M&A, dealmakers say. Sign up here. Trump's tariff policies, kicked off by his self-styled "Liberation Day" on April 2, cast a chill over the markets and pushed several deals and initial public offerings into subsequent quarters. "The expectation was we would see a lot of deal activity in the first half of 2025, and the reality is we didn't see it," said Tommy Rueger, global co-head of equity capital markets at UBS, which Dealogic ranked No. 9 in equity capital markets revenue, according to preliminary data from January 1 through June 27. Interviews with more than a dozen top bankers signal growing confidence that the worst of the market turbulence is over. Fresh record closing highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes have helped renew optimism that M&A in the second half of the year will be even stronger, dealmakers say. "There were a lot of deals that were put on hold that will come back," said Ivan Farman, co-head of global M&A at Bank of America, which was ranked No. 3 in overall investment banking revenue and No. 5 for M&A in Dealogic's year-to-date rankings. "I'm optimistic about the second half." There is reason for optimism, dealmakers say, with the recovery in the markets and Trump's easier antitrust policies paving the way for bigger deals. "The probability of very large transactions, perhaps $50 billion-plus, has increased versus a year ago," said John Collins, global co-head of Mergers & Acquisitions at Morgan Stanley, which was ranked No. 4 in overall fee revenue among investment banks and No. 3 for M&A deals. Some $2.14 trillion in deals were signed from January 1 through June 27, up 26% from the same period last year. Part of that increase, however, came from Asia, where activity more than doubled to $583.9 billion. Deal activity in North America rose to $1.04 trillion from January 1 through June 27, up 17% from the first half last year, according to preliminary data from Dealogic. Market volatility, as measured by the VIX index (.VIX) , opens new tab, has dropped to levels that indicate investors feel safer to invest today. "It's been clear that momentum continues to build, paving the way for larger transactions. People are feeling more positive than they were a month ago and starting to implement their decisions," said Philip Ross, vice chairman of Jefferies bank. As the markets calm down, institutional investors are starting to jump back in to equities and more companies are moving forward with IPO plans that had been postponed earlier this quarter. “The combination of all of those together has created, over the last three to four weeks, an incredibly strong new issue backdrop and we’ve seen a significant uptick in activity," Rueger said. Saadi Soudavar, head of equity capital markets for Europe, Middle East and Africa at Deutsche Bank, added: "Equity markets have shown a remarkable ability to shrug off a lot of the tariff and geopolitical related volatility." MORALE BOOSTERS A few big deals helped boost market morale at the height of tariff turmoil, including Global Payments' $24.25 billion acquisition of a card processing and account services firm in April. Charter Communications (CHTR.O) , opens new tabin May agreed to buy privately held rival Cox Communications for $21.9 billion. And U.S.-based equipment manufacturer Chart Industries GTLS.N and Flowserve Corp (FLS.N) , opens new tab agreed to merge, valuing the combined company at about $19 billion. There were 17,528 deals signed during the first half of this year, compared with 20,583 deals in the same period last year, according to Dealogic. But this year's deals were bigger in size, pushing the total value of deals higher. There was a 62% increase in the number of $10 billion-plus deals versus the same period last year, the data shows. Dealmaking in Asia was a bright spot. Overall M&A activity rose to $583.9 billion in the first six months, up from $269.9 billion a year ago. Led by Japan and China, the region accounted for 27.3% of the global M&A activity, gaining more than 11 percentage points from the same period last year. Some of the region's biggest deals were kept within the Asia-Pacific region. Toyota Motor (7203.T) , opens new tab announced plans on June 3 to take one of its suppliers private for $33 billion. On June 16, a consortium led by Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company (ADNOC) launched an $18.7 billion all-cash takeover of Australia's second-largest oil producer Santos (STO.AX) , opens new tab. Asia also helped drive global equity issuance higher despite the market volatility, with overall volume rising nearly 8% to $350 billion from the same period last year. "You will see more Asia-to-Asia activity," said Raghav Maliah, global vice chairman of investment banking at Goldman Sachs, which was ranked No. 2 in overall investment banking fees and No. 1 in M&A revenue. "Japan has been a big driver in all the deal volumes (in Asia) and we do believe that trend will continue." https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/larger-deals-power-global-ma-h1-bankers-signal-appetite-megadeals-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 14:40

Trump says U.S. will send tariff rate letter to Japan Tariff rates expected to increase on July 9 Japan negotiator says the countries are working hard on a deal WASHINGTON, June 30 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump expressed frustration with U.S.-Japan trade negotiations on Monday as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs as a July 9 deadline approaches despite good-faith negotiations. Trump wrote in a social media post that Japan's reluctance to import American-grown rice was a sign that countries have become "spoiled with respect to the United States of America." Sign up here. "I have great respect for Japan, they won't take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "We'll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come." Trump said last week that his administration would send letters to a number of countries notifying them of their higher tariff rates before July 9, when tariff rates are scheduled to revert from a temporary 10% level to his suspended rates of 11% to 50% announced on April 2. Trump's Monday complaint about U.S.-Japan rice trade follows his comments broadcast on Sunday that Japan engages in "unfair" autos trade with the U.S. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said on Monday that Trump would meet with his trade team to set tariff rates for countries "if they don't come to the table to negotiate in good faith." Bessent, who earlier this month floated the idea of extending the deadline for countries that were negotiating trade deals with the U.S. in good faith, told Bloomberg Television that only Trump would decide on such extensions. He added that he expects "a flurry" of deals ahead of the July 9 deadline and wanted to keep up pressure on trading partners. "We have countries that are negotiating in good faith, but they should be aware that if we can't get across the line because they are being recalcitrant, then we could spring back to the April 2 levels. I hope that won't have to happen," Bessent said. Japan's main tariff negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, on Monday said that Japan would continue working with the U.S. to reach a trade agreement while defending Japan's national interest. Akazawa said he was aware of Trump's comments on autos, adding that a continuation of Trump's 25% on autos imported from Japan would cause significant damage to its economy. Another key trading partner, the European Union, is open to a trade agreement that maintains a 10% U.S. tariff on EU goods, but wants U.S. commitments to reduce its tariffs in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Reuters reported earlier this month that European officials are increasingly resigned to a 10% rate of "reciprocal" tariffs being the baseline in any trade deal between the U.S. and the EU. Britain negotiated a trade deal on similar terms, accepting a 10% U.S. tariff on many goods, including autos, in exchange for special access for aircraft engines and British beef. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-treasurys-bessent-warns-countries-face-higher-tariff-rates-after-july-9-2025-06-30/